Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

David Chan

New York vs. Orlando
Pick: Orlando

The Knicks are 22-10 SU and 16-15-1 ATS; after back to back losses, they bounced back with a 100-83 win over the Spurs on the 3rd as 1 point favorites. Tyson Chandler had 10 points and 14 boards. Marcus Camby had his first start of the year, grabbing six boards.

Note though that New York is in fact just 1-4 ATS its last five on the road.

Orlando is 12-20 SU and 16-15-1 ATS; it's coming off seven straight losses, including a 96-94 setback to Chicago as a 3 point underdog on the 2nd.

You'll want to keep your eyes on 7 footer Nikola Vucevic who has 14 double doubles and who has 41 points and 41 rebounds over his last two games.

The Magic have been on the cusp, losing five times by four points or fewer during the slide.

Veteran Jameer Nelson had 32 points vs. the Bulls.

These teams played on November 13th, and the Knicks won 99-89, despite being outrebounded 42-31.

Note though that Orlando is in fact 14-6 SU its last 20 in this series.

After their big win over the Spurs, I believe the visitors come in a bit complacent, leaving the back door open just enough for the desperate home side to sneak through; consider a second look at the Magic in this one!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Bryan Leonard

Utah +18.5

Wildcats are likely to overlook the Utes here after winning 5 of the last 6 meetings including a sweep of the season series a year ago. This is a major sandwich game for Arizona after beating Miami Florida and San Diego State before the very fortunate win over Colorado on Thursday. They held off the Aztecs by a single point and then survived the Buffaloes with a very controversial call. The Wildcats play three straight on the road after this one including a very tough trip to visit Oregon. Arizona hasn't been a very good big favorite in this building and the Utes could very well keep this one close. With narrow defeats the last two times on the road against BYU and Arizona State Utah won't be intimidated.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

King Creole

Portland +7.5

For the SECOND night in a row, our canines are right back ON the Blazers plus the points as they travel to division rival Minnesota. Last night, it was an OUTRIGHT win for us against the Grizzlies.  And Portland will be taking on a beat-up T'Wolves team that might not have Kevin Love (questionable with hand injury) AND Ricky Rubio (out last 3 gms w/ back injury). Whether it's full strength or not, the POINTS are the play. This is a series that Portland dominates anyhow. They've gone 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games versus the T'Wolves, and that includes 11-2 ATS playing IN Minnesota.

This situation that applies tonight has already lost the cash 90% of the times so far THIS season. Minnesota last played on Thursday while Portland played LAST night (and got the cash for us vs the Grizz).
1-9-1 ATS this season: All DIVISION home favorites of < 10 points (Min) in a '1/0' REST situation.

Minnesota went into the Mile High City (Denver) on Thursday night... and SHOCKED the Nuggets (winning by 4 as dogs of +8 pts).
5-16 ATS since 2007: All NBA favorites playing off a ROAD dog win against the Denver Nuggets (Min). These teams have gone 2-10 ATS vs any opp off a SU win (like PORT)... and 0-4 ATS in division play.

Speaking of DIVISION play, this is a division (Northwest) in which teams playing with NO REST do very well as of late.
11-1 ATS last 3 years: All NORTHWEST division road underdogs of 12 < pts (PORTLAND) versus any division opponent off a SU win (Min).

1-9 ATS since 2007: All NORTHWEST division home favorites playing off a double-digit ATS win (Min covered by +12 pts vs Den on Thur)... versus any division opponent (PORTLAND).

PORTLAND has gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS in the last 12 months n the road with NO REST versus any conference opponent off a SU win (Min).

MINNESOTA has gone 11-28 ATS since 2010 at home versus any UNRESTED opponent (PORT). That includes 5-16 ATS of that opp is off a SU win... and 1-10 ATS as home FAVORITES.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Baylor/ Texas Over 131.5: The Over is 11-4 in Baylor's last 15 overall and 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these teams. Baylor will push tempo and they come in averaging 77.8 ppg on 48.8% shooting at home this year. The Texas defense has been solid overall, allowing 55.9 ppg, but they have struggled on the road, where they allow 67 ppg on 44.9% shooting. The Baylor defense has been decent this year, but have struggled of late as they come in allowing 71.4 ppg in their last 5 games. On offense Texas has really missed Kabongo, but they seem to be getting better as they have averaged 67.2 ppg in their last 5 games and really should have plenty of scoring chances vs a weak Baylor defensive squad. The last 5 Baylor games have averaged 150.2 ppg, while the last 10 in the series has averaged 144.4 ppg. This one should also hit at least 140.

2 UNIT PLAY

NOTRE DAME -10 over Seton Hall: I know that the Irish have a big game on deck vs Cincinnati, but I feel that Brey will have his team focused. The Irish have won 10 in a row and all have been by at least 10 points. Not all of the games have been cupcakes as their win streak has included wins over Kentucky, Purdue, George Washington and BYU. Seton Hall is off to a nice start, but this is not a team they have fared well vs as the Irish as Notre Dame has won 9 of the last 10 in the series, with the last 3 and 6 of the last 7 wins in the series coming by DD. THis is not a good spot for the Hall as Notre Dame wins by at least 15.

More Later

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Minnesota/ Green Bay Over 45.5: The Over is 4-1 the last 5 in the series, while 7 of the last 9 between these teams have put up at least 50 points. Rodgers loves facing this team as he has thrown for 313 ypg with 23 TD's and just 4 INT's the last 4 seasons vs the Vikes. His WR corps is healthy once again and that should help him put up big numbers in this on vs the Vikes #24 pass defense. The Vikes will look to pound away with Petersen, but still he has a 7.4 ypc average vs the Pack this year and he has run for 6.5 ypc on the road this year. Some big plays from the run game will also set up big plays for Ponder, which should lead to Minnesota putting up their fair share of points in this one.  Minnesota averages 23.7 ppg on the road, while the Packers average 27 ppg at home and I see this one hitting at least 50 points as well.


HOUSTON -4.5 over Cincinnati: I know about the fact that these teams are headed in opposite directions as the season winded down, but I feel that the Texans will come out with their "A" game in this one. The Bengals have been solid on defense down the stretch, allowing just 12.8 ppg but 5 of those games were vs struggling offenses KC, Oakland, San Diego, Philly and Dallas. I feel that Cincy is a bit overrated thanks to their weak schedule down the stretch. The Texans have not done well at all vs tough completion down the stretch, but this is a home playoff game vs a team that may be a bit overconfident here and I expect them to get the job done. Should be close for about 3 quarters, but then the Texans will come up with nough big plays on both sides of the ball to pull away late.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

SPORTS WAGERS

Mississippi -3½ over Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh played in this bowl game last season and got whacked by SMU by 22 points. The Panthers have not performed well in bowl games and if Ole Miss shows up here, this one could be another suffered blowout. Both these teams finished the year 6-6 but equals they are not. Pittsburgh’s losses came against Youngstown State, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Louisville, Notre Dame and Connecticut. Four of those losses can be excused but losses to UConn and Youngstown State cannot. The Rebels six losses came against then #14 Texas, then #1 Alabama, Texas A&M by just three, #6 Georgia, Vandy by a point and #7 LSU by six.       

Mississippi is as stoked about a date in the Magic City as a team can get and the Rebels have one edge that figures to prove decisive. Pitt allows sacks and tackles for loss in bunches and the Rebels are among the nation's best in those departments. The inability of this Panthers offensive line to handle the Ole Miss defensive front will have a big impact on the outcome. After playing some of the best teams in the country and not looking out of place in most, the Rebels defense will enjoy the slower pace here much better and could excel. The offense will put up points to seal the deal.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

SPORTS WAGERS

Delaware -2½ over OLD DOMINION

We’re usually not in favor of spotting small road points in college basketball but will make a rare exception here in a game that is not going to attract a lot of attention. This is one we can squeeze under the radar. The Monarchs are pure and simple a really bad basketball team. They come in with two wins in 14 games against Morgan State and Virginia, the latter by a bucket. ODU has lost to bad teams and have been whacked by better ones.

Meanwhile, Delaware has played the 60th toughest schedule in the country, facing clubs that are a combined 87-64. Among those are K-State, Pitt, Duke and Temple. Unlike ODU, which has started conference play 0-2, the Blue Hens come in with a fresh slate, not having played a single conference game yet. The Colonial is the weakest it’s been in years and ODU is the weakest of the weak. With a chance to open conference play 1-0, one figures the Blue Hens to be sky high for this one while the same can’t be said for the Monarchs.


Georgetown +3½ over MARQUETTE

The Golden Eagles come in with a 10-3 record. There are suggestions that Marquette could be in the top-25 sometime in the near future but after seeing them play numerous times, we’re not buying that. Marquette is 0-2 against the RPI’s top 50 and its strength of schedule ranks 130th in the nation. When they played a top outfit in Florida, the Golden Eagles looked like a high school team in a 33-point loss. Marquette has won 17 straight at home but that streak is in serious jeopardy here.

The Hoyas have one loss this year in OT to then #1 Indiana. They’ve reeled off seven in a row and play a suffocating defense that should give the careless Golden Eagles fits all day long. Georgetown does not score a lot of points but they’re an efficient club that makes the most of their possessions. Despite being ranked 15th in the country, Georgetown still has plenty of naysayers and as a result, they play with a chip on its shoulders. This is a chance for them to quiet their critics and we trust they’ll do just that. Marquette is not that good.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

SPORTS WAGERS

DALLAS -6 over New Orleans

Losers in six of its past seven games, Dallas is hungry for wins and should be in a strong position here to put this intruder away. A close look reveals that the schedule maker did the Mavs no favors. Dallas is coming off the toughest seven-game stretch that any team has or will have to play this year. It started on Dec 20 with a game against Miami, followed by contests against Memphis, San Antonio, OKC, Denver, San Antonio again, Washington and finally Miami again. You’ll notice the one soft spot in Washington in which the Mavs won by nine. Now the Mavs are undervalued because of its recent string of losses and overall record of 13-20.

The Hornets play tough but they’re coming off a 12-point loss in Houston in a game they deserved better in (they were down by a point with three minutes to go). They have the Spurs on deck at home on Monday and likely can’t wait to return, as that game will end a difficult stretch of nine road games in New Orleans’ past 13. Mavs ascension up the standings and back into the playoff race must begin here.   


ORLANDO +6½ over New York

In the first of two featured NBA games this past Thursday, the Knicks weren’t supposed to do what they did to the Spurs. Struggling and showing signs of weakness, the Knicks responded with one of their best games of the season with a 17-point win and holding San Antonio to just 83 points. Point proven. Now we catch the Knicks in a more difficult spot after that statement game. With the Celtics on deck at MSG on Monday and the Magic having lost seven straight, this is exactly the type of game the Knicks could overlook.

Outside of a blowout loss against Toronto, the Magic’s seven game losing streak could easily be five wins. They lost by their last two games by just two points to both the Bulls and Heat and lost three others by a combined 10 points over that span. The Magic have shot 48% and won the rebounding battle in five of those seven losses. The results aren’t there but the effort and talent level is much better than Orlando is given credit for. This is a strong scheduling spot to take advantage of that.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Dave Price

Sacramento Kings +7

The Kings and Nets both played last night but I give the edge to the Kings catching big points as they will be the fresher side. Sacramento had an easy win against Toronto in a game where only one King played more than 33 minutes. Brooklyn, meanwhile, was involved in a double-OT contest versus Washington and saw five players log more than 36 minutes. Three logged more than 43 minutes. The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Jeff Alexander

Indiana Pacers -4

Both the Pacers and Bucks got taken behind the woodshed last night, but Indiana has the advantage here as it is 11-3 at home on the season and 27-9 at home versus the Bucks since 1996. Milwaukee has won the season's first two meetings but both were in Milwaukee and both came following at least a day of rest. The Bucks are a miserable 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest while the Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without rest. Take the Pacers.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Jack Jones

Houston Texans -4.5

The Houston Texans have been one of the best teams in the league all season. Sure, they have struggled of late, but that's why this line is lower than it should be. Houston has been at least a 4-point favorite in every home game this season. It is outscoring opponents by 8.6 points per game at home this year.

Houston did not even have Matt Schaub last season when it beat Cincinnati 31-10 in the opening round of the playoffs. It didn’t need him too much as it rushed for 188 yards on offense, while the defense forced Andy Dalton into three interceptions. With Schaub healthy this time around, the Texans have an excellent chance of covering this small spread and advancing to the second round.

Cincinnati hasn’t had many playoff opportunities in its history. It hasn’t taken advantage of its opportunities, either. This will be just the Bengals’ fourth trip to the playoffs dating back to 1991, and they have lost all three of their previous appearances all by double-digits. Cincinnati’s last playoff win came in 1990. I don't believe Andy Dalton is quite ready to win a big road game in the playoffs just yet.

The Bengals are 19-38 ATS in their last 57 games versus good rushing teams that average at least 130 yards per game. Cincinnati is 5-17 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game since 1992. Houston is 34-16 ATS in its last 50 following two or more consecutive losses. Gary Kubiak is 14-3 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of Houston. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Bengals. Bet the Texans Saturday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Black Widow

Dallas Mavericks -5.5

With Dirk Nowitzki back and healthy, the Dallas Mavericks are about to go on a run. They won at Washington 103-94 before taking the defending champion Miami Heat to overtime on Wednesday. They have had two days' rest since and will be ready to go tonight as they get back in the win column against the lowly New Orleans Hornets (7-25). New Orleans has lost 14 of its last 16 games as this is yet another rebuilding year for the Hornets. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. The Hornets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games overall. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The home team is 17-5-2 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take Dallas and lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Dennis Macklin

Notre Dame -10

Both of these Big East teams have played a select hand=picked group of tomato cans. The Hall is 12-2 vs the No.329th ranked schedule, the Irish are 12-1 vs the No.312th ranked schedule. That's where most of the similarity ends as the Notre Dame is 3-1 vs the Top 100 while the Pony Pirates are just 1-1 owning a one-point win over Stony Brook. Notre Dame is 9-1 over the last 10 in the series with the last three wins all coming by 12+ points. Not overly enamored with the line but this is one of the toughest home venues in college basketball and the Irish are worth a look.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Dave Cokin

Middle Tennessee State at South Alabama
Pick: Middle Tennessee State

One of my favorite angles in college basketball is the big bounce. Simple enough. Look for a team off an uncharacteristically bad shooting performance of they're up against a team that had a lights out effort last game. Middle Tennessee was 19/59 in the OT loss at Arkansas State on Thursday. South Alabama slipped past UL-Monroe that same evening thanks to nailing a blazing hot 26/44 from the field. I'll look for the bounce here and I'll back Middle Tennessee State to get the win and cover against the Jaguars.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Nelly

St. John's + over Cincinnati

Cincinnati owns a glowing 13-1 record but the Bearcats have not played a great schedule. Wins over Iowa State, Oregon, and Alabama warrant minor notice from early in the season but they all were fairly tight games. Cincinnati has also gone through a very difficult recent stretch of games, facing rival Xavier, struggling vs. Wright State, losing at home to New Mexico, and winning at Pittsburgh all in the last two weeks. This could be a bit of a flat spot hosting a talent-rich St. John's team. The Red Storm is youthful but at 8-5 this team can compete. St. John's has a few suspect losses but also has played quality teams, losing to Murray State, Baylor, and recently to Villanova in overtime on Wednesday. The road team has won outright in each of the last four meetings between these schools and this is a huge spread for Cincinnati to face knowing that a huge national game with Notre Dame is on deck Monday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Harry Bondi

MISSISSIPPI (-3.5) over Pittsburgh

This is a very average Pitt team that is also an unmotivated group, considering the players are making their third-straight trip to Birmingham for the Compass Bowl. That's hardly a reward for a team that qualified for the postseason. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is sky-high to be here. First-year head coach Hugh Freeze led an amazing turnaround for the Rebels this year. Five of the Rebels' six losses came to Top-25 teams, and three came in games they led in the fourth quarter, including down-to-the-wire finishes against Top-10 teams Texas A&M and LSU. The result has the Ole Miss fan base pumped up for this game. In fact, the school went through the initial allotment of 10,000 tickets so quickly, it had to go back to the bowl for more, and even took nearly half of Pittsburgh's allotment of seats. We wrote in our College Bowl Preview that a huge part of handicapping bowl games is motivation and we clearly have the more motivated team here today. Lay the short number.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Charlie Sports

New York Knicks at Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic

The (22-10) New York Knicks of the Eastern Conference Atlantic division will take on the (12-20) Orlando Magic of the Eastern Conference Southeast division in 2013 NBA action. The Knicks won the first meeting between the teams 99-89 back in November and have covered 4 of the last 5 vs. Orlando Against The Spread. The Knicks are 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 overall while Orlando is 4-1 ATS their last 7 at home. Orlando gets the home cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Scott Delaney

On the heels of last night's free pick winner on the Cleveland Cavaliers, I'm looking at Georgetown against Marquette today, as I aim to improve my 64-40-2 comp-play run.

I understand Marquette is a formidable conference foe that has won three straight including an overtime win over Connecticut, but the 15th-ranked Hoyas have been thriving of late, and open Big East play with a 10-1 mark after preseason play. The also arrive in Milwaukee after two weeks rest, and I think will be revved up for their conference-opener.

Georgetown, which was picked to finish fifth in the preseason coaches' poll, extended its win streak to seven games with a 65-48 blowout of American back on Dec. 22.

The Hoyas have won three of their last four meetings with the Golden Eagles, who have won the last three games at Bradley Center. And admittedly, their Princeton offense can be worrisome at times, especially when you see they tallied 37 points against Tennessee and 46 against Towson, albeit both were wins.

But I'm not worried about those things, as I see Georgetown is back at its defensive ways.

The Hoyas have limited opponents to less than 60 points in eight of their 11 games, while their opponents are averaging a bleak 54.7 points per game, which ranks second in the conference and 9th nationally. And those are promising numbers, as it's the lowest opponent scoring average during coach John Thompson III's tenure at GU.

Let's take a shot here with the road pup.

4♦ GEORGETOWN

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Craig Davis

Free play of the day on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the small number on the road against Illinois.

What we have here is the best conference in college basketball and two of the top six teams from that conference hooking up for a huge early-season division matchup.

Illinois is off to a hotter start than many of us thought, based partially on a somewhat soft schedule AND the fact they are scoring better than we thought.

What's going to hurt the Illini today is the lack of a ton of experience and the fact they don't play defense.

If you look at Ohio State and Illinois, on paper, they are very similar in a lot of ways --- until it comes to defense.

The Buckeyes allow 56 points per game while Illinois allows 65.3, and that's ultimately going to be the downfall for the Illini.

Ohio State has two losses this season to Duke and Kansas, both top 10 teams, but the Kansas loss was ugly because Ohio State shot the worst percentage they've had in three years. That won't happen today against a team that refuses to play defense.

Ohio State wins by 7 today as your free play of the day.

2♦ OHIO STATE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday January, 5

Jeff Benton

Freebie winner last night on Oklahoma City over Philly.

59-47 freebie run!

Your Saturday freebie comes in the AFC Wild Card game, as I play the Bengals and the Texans to hold Under the total in their battle at Reliant Stadium.

If this matchup looks familiar, well it should, as these teams met in the opening round of the playoffs in this stadium last season - Houston a 31-10 winner as the game found its way over the total of 38 points. I don't think this year's rematch will see as many points.

Cincinnati has been doing a nice job on defense where they have held their last eight opponents to 20 points or less, and six of their last eight to an even stingier 13 points or less. No coincidence the Bengals have played Under the total in seven of their last eight games.

Houston has had some offensive issues of late, as the Texans point total has not topped 16 points in three of their last four games, and not surprisingly Houston has held Under the posted price in three in a row, four of five, and six of their last nine overall.

Last year's game was lucky to go Over the total, as the Houston defense returned an Andy Dalton pass for a "pick-six" that helped aid the total. Look for both QB's to protect the pigskin today and for this Wild Card game to hold Under the total on Saturday afternoon.

3♦ CINCINNATI-HOUSTON UNDER

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