Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 4

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 4

DUNKEL INDEX

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma 
The Sooners look to take advantage of a Texas A&M team that is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Aggies favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+4 1/2)

Game 263-264: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 110.565; Oklahoma 107.678
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 3; 75
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 4 1/2; 71 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+4 1/2); Over

NBA

Chicago at Miami
The Heat look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games in Miami. Miami is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8)

Game 801-802: Sacramento at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.962; Toronto 124.851
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 9; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 7; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-7); Under

Game 803-804: Cleveland at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 112.168; Charlotte 114.035
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 805-806: Brooklyn at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 115.325; Washington 108.571
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-5 1/2); Over

Game 807-808: Atlanta at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 118.353; Detroit 122.265
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 4; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 192
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1); Under

Game 809-810: Chicago at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 112.923; Miami 122.705
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 8; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8); Under

Game 811-812: Indiana at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 118.922; Boston 115.284
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 813-814: Philadelphia at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 115.500; Oklahoma City 128.039
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 12 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 10; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-10); Under

Game 815-816: Portland at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 114.778; Memphis 123.282
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 9 1/2; 183
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+9 1/2); Over

Game 817-818: Houston at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.869; Milwaukee 123.215
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 212
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-1); Under

Game 819-820: Utah at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 119.754; Phoenix 119.708
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+2); Over

Game 821-822: LA Lakers at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 118.281; LA Clippers 126.193
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 202
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4; 206
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-4); Under

NCAAB

Iona at Siena
The Saints look to bounce back from their 80-52 loss to LaSalle and build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games after losing by more than 20 points in their previous game. Siena is the pick (+13) according to Dunkel, which has the Gaels favored by only 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick Siena (+13)

Game 823-824: George Washington at Georgia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 53.682; Georgia 61.804
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 8
Vegas Line: Georgia by 5
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-5)

Game 825-826: Brown at Rhode Island (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 44.560; Rhode Island 61.422
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 17
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 9
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (-9)

Game 827-828: Cleveland State at Valparaiso (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 48.286; Valparaiso 59.228
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 11
Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (+13 1/2)

Game 829-830: Memphis at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 65.837; Tennessee 69.238
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2; 126
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-2); Under

Game 831-832: Fordham at Mississippi (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 48.255; Mississippi 65.913
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+19 1/2)

Game 833-834: Manhattan at St. Peter's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 48.046; St. Peter's 53.136
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 5
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 3
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (-3)

Game 835-836: Iona at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 57.617; Siena 48.963
Dunkel Line: Iona by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 13
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+13)

Game 837-838: Rider at Loyola-MD (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 50.295; Loyola-MD 56.644
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+7 1/2)

Game 839-840: Wofford at Tulane (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 54.775; Tulane 60.783
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 6
Vegas Line: Tulane by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+8 1/2)

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Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta vs. Detroit
Pick: DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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On the first Friday of 2013, let's look to the revenge-minded Pistons to get the free play record going in the right direction ...
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These teams just faced each other the day after Christmas, which was the first meeting of the season. The Hawks were able to protect their home floor. However, it wasn't easy; the Pistons took them to double-OT.
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The Pistons haven't lost since; they've gone 3-0 including a double-digit win over the Heat.
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The Pistons, who have tomorrow off, are also 14-7 ATS the last couple of seasons when playing with two day's rest.
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On the other hand, the Hawks host Boston tomorrow, their first game against the Celtics this season. That's noteworthy as the Celtics knocked Atlanta out of the playoffs last May. If there's ever a game to look ahead to, that could well be the one.
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The Hawks are 3-6-1 ATS the last 10 times that they played the front-end of b2b games, most recently losing 123-104 at Houston.
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For those interested in longer-term numbers, note that Atlanta is also 53-83 the last 100+ times it played a road game with an O/U line in the 190 to 194.5 range.
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With Atlanta potentially thinking about tomorrow and the Pistons arguably playing their best ball of the season, take a look at the revenge-minded home team.

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Indiana vs. Boston
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With all due respect to the Boston Celtics, they have no business being favorites in this matchup against the Indiana Pacers.
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The Pacers are coming of an 89-81 win over the Washington Wizards, putting them on a run that has seen them win nine of their last 11 games. The Pacers are will be playing this game hard as it’s against the legendary Boston Celtics.
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Indiana’s Paul George is tearing it up and is looking like he has successfully filled Danny Granger’s spot  as the best player on the team. George has put up 19.6 points per game  and 8.4 rebounds over the last 11 games.
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The Celtics are really struggling these days as its looks like father time is starting to catch up Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. 
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Boston is on a four game losing streak and has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 11 games. Boston is a little overrated in my estimation at this point in the season, even if they are at home.
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"Whatever we're doing wrong, it's not going to get fixed in a day," coach Doc Rivers said.
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The Celtics have been outscored by 19.7 points in their four game losing streak.
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The Pacers have one of the defenses in the league in any arena as the team is allowing just 91.1 points per game on the road.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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L.A. Lakers vs. L.A. Clippers
Pick: L.A. ClippersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Clippers are back home on Friday to take on the Lakers at the Staples Center. The Lakers have dominated head to head meetings with the Clippers in recent seasons, winning four of six since 2011. The Clippers took the last meeting however, winning by a score of 105-95 on December 2.
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The Lakers appeared to be back on track with back to back wins after the return of Steve Nash, however they have since lost two of three. Nash has done his part, averaging 12.2 points and 9.6 assists in five games since returning to the lineup. Kobe Bryant claims to be playing his best basketball in years, and while he's been scoring plenty of points, it hasn't been translating into wins for his team.
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Pau Gasol isn't playing well, as he seems to still suffer from a lingering foot injury. "It's frustrating," guard Steve Nash said. "We're in a tough position and we really have a lot of ground to make up. We're not finding the answers right now."
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The Clippers are 15-3 at the Staples Center this season, and they have won 10 straight on their home court. They have outscored opponents by an average of 18 points during that span.
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Caron Butler will return to the lineup tonight for the Clippers, and he's been good against the Lakers, hitting 11 of 23 from downtown in the last four games against L.A.
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The Clippers should bust out of their mini slump (if you can call it that), while the Lakers still have more problems than answers.

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Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston vs. Milwaukee
Pick: MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rockets have won two straight games while Milwaukee has dropped its last two contests but this is a good situation for the Bucks that comes with a very small line as well. Houston ran off five straight wins before losing two in a row against heavyweights San Antonio and Oklahoma City but has since won its last two games. Both of those games were at home however and while the road has been better for the Rockets, they are still just 5-8 on the highway this season. This is the start of a very difficult stretch for Houston as 12 of the next 16 games are on the road as it has been fortunate to start the season with 19 of its first 32 games taking place at home. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back losses as it went down in Detroit to close out 2012 before losing at home against the Spurs last time out, falling behind by as many as 23 points before making the final score more respectable. The Bucks are now 9-7 at home and while going 1-4 at home as underdogs, they are a much more solid 8-3 when favored and given the short line here, a win likely means a cover as well. Milwaukee will have to take advantage of the poor Houston defense as the Rockets are allowing 103.5 ppg on 46 percent shooting including 105.2 ppg on 46.9 percent shooting on the road which are fourth and sixth worst in the league respectively on the road. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a loss while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss against the number. Additionally, Milwaukee is 33-16 ATS in its 49 games under head coach Scott Skiles after two or more consecutive losses.

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Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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L.A. Lakers vs. L.A. Clippers
Pick: L.A. LakersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Lakers meet the Clippers in a cross town rivalry showdown Friday night Kobe's crew will take the court knowing they are 15-5 straight up the last 20 games in this series. They are also 3-0 SU and ATS when seeking same season revenge.  With both teams reeling off losses in their last game, we'll back the revenge minded dominating dog here tonight.  We recommend a 1-unit play on the Lakers.

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David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Sacramento vs. Toronto
Pick: TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Sacramento is 12-20 SU and 15-16-1 ATS; it's coming off a 97-94 win at Cleveland on the 2nd. Jason Thompson had 19 points and 10 boards. Note though that Sacramento is just 7-8 ATS this year on the road, as well as a dismal 2-13 SU.
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Toronto is 12-20 SU and 17-15 ATS; it's won eight of nine, including three in a row, most recently a 102-79 win over Portland on the 2nd as a 4 point favorite.
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Terrence Ross had 26 points; DeMar DeRozan had 24.
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In all the team would shoot 53.2% from the floor and collect a season-best 34 assists.
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Toronto though has been getting the job done with tough defensive play, holding the opposition to just 90.4 points during the streak, while outscoring the competition 109.7 to 88.0 over the last three.
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And note that Toronto is 9-4 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year.
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This sets up as a "revenge" game for the home side as well after it lost 107-100 to Sacramento back on December 5th.
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The Kings haven't won back to back road games since March 2011, and with a tough game in Brooklyn tomorrow night, I believe they get caught looking ahead to that contest, giving the home side the opening it needs to continue its strong push at home; consider a second look at the Raptors in this matchup!

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma City -10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Thunder got blown out Wednesday night by the Brooklyn Nets and I expect them to bounce back in a big way over the 76ers. Philadelphia is nearing the end of a 8 game road trip and has to be anxious to get back home. They picked up two wins on the trip against Memphis and the Lakers but dropped the other four because they couldn't score more than 92 points in any of those games.
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Lack of scoring is a problem when you face the Thunder. OKC scores 107.4 ppg at home this year against teams giving up just 97.5 ppg. That doesn't mean they play at a ridiculous pace either, their opposition scores 97.1 ppg compared to a 97.4 season average.
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Earlier this year the Thunder went on the road and won by 9 in Philadelphia despite only hitting 28.6% of their 3-point attempts. I don't see them having a problem beating Philly by double digits here tonight.

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Brooklyn Nets -5½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It might be easy to just bet against the Wizards but after sputtering and firing their coach the Brooklyn Nets went into Oklahoma City and beat the Thunder handily, maybe the most impressive road victory of the regular season. We already know this team has more talent than struggling Washington so giving up 5.5 doesn’t seem like much.
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Despite their recent struggles this is a top 5 defensive team squaring off against a Wizards squad that struggles to score. It is just going to be very hard for them to keep up with Brooklyn now that there is some life back in them.

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Rob Vinciletti

Sacramento Kings vs. Toronto Raptors    
Play: Toronto Raptors

The Raptors just missed the unit rated cut tonight as the line is just a touch too high here. However for a free play we will back them Knowing that home favorites with 1 day of rest at -5 or higher that shot 50% or more are 11-1 ats vs an opponent that was a road dog of 4 or less in their last game and had no prior rest to that game. The Raptors are off a pair of solid wins and have covered 7 of 10 vs teams who allow 99 or more points per game. They have also covered 10 of the last 15 after allowing 85 or less points. The Kings come in off a nice road win vs Cleveland and are not the type of team to string together back to back road wins. Take Toronto in this one.

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Bulls at Heat
Pick: Under
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There's a reason the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these Eastern rivals: Chicago is all about slowing the pace down and playing tough, physical defense. The Bulls have been even more so without Derek Rose, 3rd in the NBA in points allowed, 27th in points scored. They are on a 14-6 run under the total and the Under is 20-7 in Bulls last 27 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Miami can play any style and the under is 8-3 in Heat last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, and 7-1 under the total in their last 7 home games. Play the Bulls/Heat under the total.

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Cleveland State at Valparaiso
Pick: Valparaiso
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Valparaiso is a bit of a disappointment so far, but this looks like a spot for the Crusaders to bust out. Cleveland State has lost its last four D-1 games by a whopping 101 points, and I see the Vikings getting whacked again here. Valpo minus the points tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 4

JR O'Donnell

George Washington +5

Going real ugly tonight as yes the Oster will stand in front of the Sec 5-7 Georgia Bull Dogs........ The #'s are strong as these Colonials can sweep the Glass.... (( They have "2" of the top 15 rebounders in the Atlantic 10, Lason & Armwood... George W currently tops the conference at 40.3 rebounds per game!! Nice !!  The Colonials will be a toe to toe play.

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Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee -2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is Memphis' first true road game of the season, and I don't see it making it out alive against a Tennessee squad that will be out to end a two-game losing streak in the series. The Vols are 15-4 ATS in all lined home games over the last 2 seasons and 24-8 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. Take Tennessee.

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Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Wizards +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nets have been terribly overvalued the last month and are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as a result. Washington, on the other hand, has been undervalued and is 10-5-1 ATS in its last 16 games as a result. The Nets enter off a big upset win at Oklahoma City but are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games following a win of more than 10 points and 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 road games versus a team with a losing home record. The Wizards are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning record. Take the points.

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Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee Volunteers -2FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tennessee Volunteers should be a bigger home favorite tonight against the Memphis Tigers. I'll gladly back the Vols at this price as they look to remain unbeaten on their home floor this year.
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Tennessee is off to an 8-3 start this year, which includes a perfect 6-0 home record. Its only losses have come on the road to Oklahoma State, Georgetown and Virginia. It has even beaten a very good Wichita State team as well as Xavier at home this year.
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Memphis comes in overvalued due to its 9-3 start, which features very few impressive wins. Its three losses have comes to Louisville, Minnesota and Virginia Commonwealth, all by 9 points or more. Somehow, the Tigers have yet to play a true road game as this will be their first one tonight. That first true road game is always tough for any team.
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The Vols want revenge from two losses to Memphis last season, including a 99-97 overtime setback on a neutral court. Neither of those losses were at Tennessee last year, so they'll relish this opportunity for payback at home tonight.
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Memphis is 0-6 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 55 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games. The Vols are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games overall. Bet Tennessee Friday.

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Oklahoma +135 over Texas A&MFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is really about as interesting as it gets when breaking down a bowl game. There’s little doubt that the Sooners feel cheated by the selection process and over the years, teams that have felt hosed have not performed well. Still, the Cotton Bowl is a pretty big deal too and Oklahoma appears to be very much focused.
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Since beating the Crimson Tide and subsequently Johnny Manziel winning the Heisman Trophy, the Aggies are getting a little too much hype and everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. That’s the best time to jump off. They Aggies are too reliant on Manziel, whose dicey track record against ranked foes (the 5.1 yards per attempt is the most disquieting of a whole set of ugly numbers) doesn’t exactly entice us to lay the points. We’re also not impressed with the way sport's latest leading man has spent these past few weeks. Also note that the Aggies are 0-4 at this venue while the Sooners are 4-0 in games played in Texas this year. Too much hype combined with the way Manziel has conducted himself since winning the Heisman has us all over this underdog. 
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For the Wizards, there's a massive, offensive talent void outside of John Wall, who hasn't even played this season. Washington is on a league-worst pace and must rely on their solid rebounding (6th in the NBA) and their defense (10th) to give them what little hope they have of winning. Over its last seven games, Washington has played in games with combined scores of 168, 183, 171, 164 and 170.
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The Nets aren’t more efficient but they’re not much quicker, as their pace ranks second last in the NBA just ahead of Washington. In other words, we have the league’s two slowest paced clubs going at it and it would be unreasonable to expect either one of them to go off for more than 90. Expect a lot of missed shots, a slow pace and this total to not be threatened.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 4

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Oklahoma/ Texas A&M Under 73: Much like last night's game I will look to the Under in this one. Much like Oregon last night, when people think of Texas A&M all they think about is Offense, but this team knows how to play some defense as well. They use a bend but don't break style of defense as they have allowed 389 ypg, but just 22.5 ppg and have allowed just one team more than 30 points this year and that was La Tech, the highest scoring team in the land. The Sooner defense has struggled down the stretch, but they are a bit healthier for this one and with extra prep time I'm sure they will have a plan to stop this offense. Overall this defense has allowed 24.2 ppg. Oklahoma's offense has average 40.3 ppg on the year, but vs defenses like Notre Dame and Kansas State they were only able to muster just 13 points in each game and they do face another good defense tonight. These defenses are solid and have extra prep time and I feel that should keep this one in the low 60's at best.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 4

Wunderdog

Houston at Milwaukee
Pick: Houston +1

It has been a tough stretch of games for the Milwaukee Bucks. They played host to Brooklyn and Miami at home, then went to Detroit, and then returning to face the Spurs. Now after all those physical challenges, in comes Houston who is going to put their legs to the test with their frenetic style of offense led by James Harden. The Rockets have it going right now, as they are 9-3 over their last 12 games, averaging 111points per game in their last nine, while at the same time holding five of those opponents to less than 100. The Rockets’ pace translates well vs. the Eastern Conference teams where they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16, while the Bucks continue to flounder vs. the NBA Southwest where they are 0-8 ATS in their last eight. Play on Houston.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday January, 4

John Ryan

Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Washington Wizards

The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than five points. Even when Brooklyn was the Nets, they did not do well against the weakest teams in the NBA. They have posted a 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) mark when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Moreover, the pace of play as projected by the total is not in Brooklyns favor noting they are just 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Washington has just four wins on the season, but they are starting to play better team basketball and have covered three of the last four games. Washington is a better rebounding team and this is a critical part of any home dog looking to get an upset win. Strong rebounding on the defensive end minimizes an opponents second chance scoring opportunities and this will be a major factor in Washington covering this spread.

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