Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Rob Vinciletti
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets    
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder
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OKC fits a solid system that pertains to teams off a home favored win That scored 110 or more as a home favorite at -10 or higher, vs an opponent like Houston who is off a loss that broke a 5+ game win streak with no rest and still scored 100 or more as a road dog. These dejected home teams have not fared well and the Rockets fell short last night in San Antonio off a solid win streak. OKC is 10-3 straight up and ats vs winning teams and is 3-0 ats as a a road favorite from -3.5 to -6, They have also won 21 of 27 on the road when the total is 210 or more. Look for OKC To get the win and cover here tonight against Houston.

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cal Santa Barbara at CS Fullerton
Pick: CS FullertonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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One of the more underrated rivalries out west is the UC-Santa Barbara/Cal State Fullerton series. The Titans want this one, and they've scheduled a white-out to get the crowd fired up. They're also the better team this time around, and I expect a fairly comfortable win by the hosts. I'll spot the points with Fullerton.

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Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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TCU (-2) over Michigan StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan State was one of the most disappointing teams in all of college football this season. The Spartans had high hopes and expected to contend for a Rose Bowl bid, but the offense failed the team big time, and it enters this game with a subpar 6-6 record. While the defense was outstanding, those impressive numbers came mostly against the plodding offenses in the Big 10. And the offense was downright miserable all season, averaging just 20 points per game. The TCU defense has been just as strong as Michigan State, especially when you consider it faced a potent list of Big 12 offenses. The Horned Frogs will have no problems shutting down this pedestrian Spartan attack and will make just enough big plays on offense here tonight to get away with the win and cover. Lay the short number.

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JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Navy +14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Middies + 2 tds get after Asu today @ 4 pm.... Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco.... let's fire on the 6th rated team in the country who pound teams on the ground..  How a'bout 276.4 ypg as they will keep these pass happy Wildcats O off the field.  Middies  do hold teams down... @ 22.7 points per game, ranking 31st in the country.. Power rated @ Zona State - 8.... here ..... Ariz Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games & with the Triple Option coming in we see 0-5.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rice +106 over Air ForceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Air Force offense has cracked 400 yards just once in the past seven games. However, they’ve also been a very banged-up group that will be healed considerably in time for this game. With QB Connor Dietz and RB Cody Getz healthy, the Falcons figure to do some scoreboard damage. Still, they also figure to make more mistakes with a group that has not really played together much this season because of aforementioned injuries. The Falcons could be a much-more rustier team than Rice. 
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The Owls are a strong rushing squad (and passing) that will utilize that to keep their defense off the field. They have a huge special teams’ edge over AFU and carry a lot more momentum coming in. The Owls won their final four games, which included blowout wins over Southern Miss and SMU. They also played a tougher schedule than the Falcons and could win this one going away. We get the better team, in a favorable matchup, taking back a tag. Thanks for coming out.
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TCU -2 over Michigan StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Most people are suggesting this to be a very low scoring game. We’re in agreement to some degree but are much more confident in the Horned Frogs ability to move the chains than the Spartans. Defensively, we’re suggesting the Horned Frogs are one of the nation’s best and should have little trouble shutting down these Spartans. MSU played a schedule of grind-it-out teams in the Big-10 and as a result, its defensive numbers are somewhat skewed.
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The Horned Frogs played a schedule they featured some of the nation’s most prolific offenses. They closed out the season with games against Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, K-State, Texas and Oklahoma. That they allowed an average of 23 points against after playing that group is simply incredible. TCU has better playmakers, a better defense and this they’re as hungry as any bowl team this year. Spot the cheap price.

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Wunderdog

UNLV at North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina -2

The UNLV Runnin’ Rebels are off to an 11-1 start and are ranked No. 17 in the country. They bring with them a nine-game winning streak, and will be making their first appearance ever in Chapel Hill - not an easy venue for any team, let alone one that has never played here. UNLV knocked off the Tar Heels last season when Carolina was ranked No. 1, so North Carolina will have an edge in this game, and will be out for redemption. The Tar Heels are green, talented, and growing. They have won four out of their last five, and young teams are generally more at ease at home. This has been a chamber of horrors for visiting teams that aren't in the ACC as North Carolina has won 62 straight at the Dean Center, with the last loss over seven years ago. The Rebels know they can't let this one turn into a track meet or they are going to frenzy the crowd and play into Carolina's strength. UNLV just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 on the road. Play this one on North Carolina.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Red Dog Sports

Fairfield vs. Old Dominion
Play: Over 124

Look for the over tonight in the Fairfield at ODU game. The Monarchs are not great defensively as they have been in recent years. They lack a stopper like Kent Bazemore. They have played overs at home as games with VCU (153 points), UTSA (149) and Morgan State (133) have gone over what we see today. Fairfield has played high scoring games with Lehigh and Depaul, a game that ended in the 150's.

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Joseph D'Amico

Oregon State vs. Texas    
Play: Texas

Texas has a ton of post-season experience and that will be a huge factor here. They have played and dealt with Bowl pressure time and time again. Not to mention, that this game is being played in the backyard. Both squads finished the season on low notes. The Beavers strength is their passing game. But the Longhorns have a hell of a secondary and will contain the long ball here. UT will throw as many as 5 DBs at OSU's QB, Mannion and allow their speedy LB corps to flush him out of the pocket an make mistakes. This will be a close one so take the points with Texas here.

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Kelso

Valparaiso at Murray State
Pick: Murray State

Murray State returns home off a 77-68 loss at Dayton and is in major positive bounce-back form for this game. The Racers were leading that game late but were done in by a 12-2 Dayton run—a loss that snapped a 16-game road winning streak. Murray State’s only other loss this season came against powerful Colorado. There is no question Valparaiso will come to play but the Crusaders have no answer to Murray State’s All-American senior guard Isaiah Canaan, the nation’s 10th leading scorer with an average of 20.9 points per game, or to 6-7 senior forward Ed Daniel (16.2 points, 10.9 rebounds per game)—and the home-court bias at Murray is another powerful edge.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

SPORTS WAGERS

GOLDEN STATE -3 over Boston

Not really sure why the Celtics continue to get this much credit but as long as they are, we’ll continue to fade this guest when warranted. The C’s were beat up by the Clippers on Thursday by 29 points. That was Boston’s seventh road loss in its last eight games and nothing has changed. The Celtics offense continues to struggle, its defense is weaker than it’s been in years, their bench is average at best and yet they’re getting just three points against one of the NBA’s best.

The Warriors continue to turn heads and it’s no fluke. Two nights after winning 94-83 at Utah, Golden State beat Philadelphia 96-89 to improve to 13-4 over its last 17 games. They were a 5½ point choice over Philly last night and 2½ points less here. That’s reason enough right there to back them here. Add a little extra motivation for the Warriors, as they have not beaten the Celtics since ’09 and for the first time in a long time, they’re now vastly superior.


Nuggets/Grizz under 194½

This one sets up perfectly to go under this inflated number. The Grizzlies have gone over in its past two while the Nuggets have gone over the total in three of its last four, including that X-Mas day game that was heavily bet over, resulting in plenty of cashed tickets. However, Denver will play its fourth game in five night and tail-end of back-to-backs after a 106-85 win in Dallas last night. They will now play the Association’s most physical team.

Memphis has dropped two in a row and both games went over the total. Expect this team to slow things down to a crawl here because that’s how they win games. The Grizzlies strength is defense and rebounding. They will get back to that here against an exhausted visitor that isn’t likely to be in a run and gun mood either.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Yushin Okami -108 over Alan Belcher

Two fighters seemingly going in opposite directions. Okami (28-7) has not appeared to be the same fighter since losing to Anderson Silva at UFC Rio. He suffered another defeat in his next fight after that, getting knocked out by Tim Boetsch. However, he is coming off of a knockout victory of his own against Buddy Roberts in his latest fight. We trust this tune up victory will be enough to get him back on the right track.

Alan Belcher (17-5) enters this fight the winner of four straight. While he has looked good and winning four in a row is no easy feat, Okami is a level above the recent competition he has defeated. These two previously met years ago at UFC 62 where Okami emerged the victor. While Belcher has definitely improved since then, stylistically Okami is just a bad matchup for him. As one of the bigger fighters in the middleweight division, Okami negates the usual size advantage that Belcher has. Because of this, Okami will be able to use his superior wrestling to control the fight and grind out a victory.


Jamie Varner +110 over Melvin Guillard

This fight was originally scheduled for The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale but was cancelled due to Varner having health issues. Two fighters with seemingly similar fighting styles and career paths square off in what should be an exciting lightweight fight. Throughout their careers, both fighters have been plagued by inconsistencies as well as questions about their desire and focus. Both have the opportunity to prove their detractors wrong on Saturday night. The former WEC champion Varner (20-7-1-2 No Contests) has come back from the depths of near retirement and salvaged his career by going 1-1 this year including a knockout victory over renowned prospect Edson Barboza. Taking his last fight on short notice, Varner put on a potential fight of the year performance against Joe Lauzon before succumbing to a triangle choke. Despite the loss it is clear that Varner's heart is back into fighting, as he is displaying the form that made him a champion.

Guillard (47-12-3-1 No Contest) is an explosive striker with good wrestling. When Guillard is on, he looks unbeatable, when he is off his game he often loses in stunning fashion. The question in all his fights is which Melvin Guillard will show up? Like Varner, Guillard comes into this fight off of a loss and has lost three of his last four fights overall. Recovered from his illness, we trust that the crafty Varner will be able to keep distance and withstand as well as counter Guillard's striking. Both fighters are about equal in terms of wrestling with a slight advantage to Guillard. However should the fight go to the ground, Varner has the edge, as Guillard has proven to be submission prone.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Joe Gavazzi

Louisville -8

What goes around comes around….Now it is Pitino who has his Cards at the top of the polls at 11-1 SU, on a six game win streak. Though Dieng will not be available to teach Nerlens another lesson, Louisville has barely skipped a beat in his absence. For motivation look no further than a pair of Kentucky wins in this series by nearly identical scores of 69-62 and 69-61, the latter in the NCAA tournament. Pitino's backcourt led by PG Siva and Russ Smith are the dominant forces that drive numerous turnovers from this year's Kentucky edition of Diaper Dandies. Never easy to lay points against Calipari but this certainly looks like the spot.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Kentucky/ Louisville Under 134.5: This is an UNDER series as 10 of the last 11 between these teams have gone Under the total including the last 4. Thew Under is also 17-6-3 in Kentucky's last 26 road games and 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs the Big East. Both of these offenses put up 78 ppg, but it's the defenses that really drive these teams. Louisville comes in allowing just 55.5 ppg on 39% shooting, while at home they have allowed just 52 ppg on 35.9% shooting. Kentucky has played one true road game this year and this young team put up just 50 points at Notre Dame. They will struggle to score in this one as well. Kentucky has also played good defense this year, allowing 61.1 ppg on 37.7% shooting. They are getting better at that end of the floor as the season goes on, having allowed just 54 ppg on 34.2% shooting in their last 5 games. I expect both teams to struggle to score, as this game should be played in the 120's.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Scott Delaney

On the heels of a perfect 3-0 day - hitting a 25 Dime Bowl Winner on Minnesota, 5 Dime Pay-After on Iona and a Free winner on Utah Valley - free pick run is now at 62-35-2 and I look to improve that mark with an easy Bowl Winner on Navy plus the points against Arizona State in the Hunger Bowl in San Francisco.

Navy earned its trip to the Bay Area by posting an 8-4 record this season, including wins over Air Force, Indiana and Army. The Midshipmen are not on the same level as the nation's top teams - they lost to top-ranked Notre Dame 50-10 - but they will appear in a bowl game for the fourth time in Ken Niumatalolo's five seasons as head coach.

Normally known just its rushing prowess, the Middies actually boast a very talented quarterback in Keenan Reynolds, who took over midway through his freshman season to become the first Navy signal-caller to win his first four starts since Bob Powers won six straight in 1979.

Reynolds is 6-1 as a starter, completing 58 percent of his throws with eight touchdown strikes versus just one interception. To his credit, he's also has rushed for 628 yards and 10 touchdowns. The dual threat is going to be tough for the Sun Devils to defend in this game.

Actually, there are plenty of weapons on this team, as the Middies have had 17 players score touchdowns this season - tied for fifth most in the country. And make note, Navy tends to get up for its better competition, as it's won 19 games against schools from a BCS conference - the most by a non-BCS school.

Checking the betting numbers, Navy is in on ATS win streaks of 11-5 against winning teams and 5-2 in bowl games. On the other hand, the Devils are on ATS slides of 1-4 against winning teams, 1-6 in December and 0-4 in bowl games.

Take the Middies.

3♦ NAVY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Chuck O'Brien

My free pick run is 149-124-3, and tonight my freebie is on the Over in the TCU/Michigan State game. While the key matchup is perceived to be TCU's staunch rushing defense against Michigan State running back Le'Veon Bell - a matchup that would indicate a time-consuming, low-scoring football game - I think we're going to see both teams light up the friendly skies.

This game has UNDER written all over it, and that's the first thing that threw a red flag up for me, as I felt it's one of those situations that look 'too good to be true.' I mean, TCU has stayed under in three straight, while the Spartans have stayed low in five of six.

Michigan State, however, is on a 4-1 over run on neutral fields. And I believe it'll be the team dictating the pace in this one. After all, Sparty will want to force TCU into unfamiliar territory, which is a back-and-forth, scoring adventure. MSU coach Mark Dantonio knows how to prepare for a big game, and will have his troops ready to score.

On the other hand, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin has stepped up for regular starter Casey Pachall, who was suspended after being arrested on drunken driving charges and later left the program. Boykin, a redshirt freshman, threw three interceptions in his first game, but followed up with a four-touchdown performance against Baylor, and eventually threw for more than 1,800 yards and 15 touchdowns.

I am not endorsing either side, but I will count on the Over.

2♦ OVER Tcu/Michigan State

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Craig Davis

Today's free play is on the Navy Midshipmen to cover the big number against Arizona State.

These double digit favorites simply aren't covering the number. Texas Tech didn't even come close to covering the 13 last night. Fresno State? Please!!! They got run out of the building.

And I don't see it happening today.

It's always funny to watch these Pac 12 teams play the academies and try to stop that triple option attack. Some of the better schools from the bigger conferences, but since the Pac 12 doesn't really play defense, I see Todd Graham's bunch having trouble with it.

After starting the season strong at 5-1, Arizona State would drop four in a row before winning their final game against rival Arizona, 41-34.

Navy, on the other hand, ended its strange season with a 17-13 win over rival Army in a game they should have probably blown out their opponent. But then again, only the academies know how to stop the triple option because they see it every day in practice... so I guess it wasn't that surprising after all.

What WAS surprising is the fact that Navy was able to win seven of their last eight games on the schedule. It looked bad early in the season when they opened the season with a 50-10 loss to Notre Dame, but since then they have buckled down the defense and figured out how to get a little consistency out of the passing game.

But they might not need to throw. Four of Arizona State's final six opponents rushed for more than 200 yards. The Midshipmen rank sixth in the nation in rushing yards per game with just under 276 yards per game.

While I expect Arizona State to find a way to win, I think Navy will hang tough and stay within the 14.

Take Navy as your free play of the day.

3♦ NAVY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Jeff Benton

Saturday freebie comes in the Valero Alamo Bowl, as I side with the Oregon State Beavers to cover the number against the Texas Longhorns.

Do you find it strange Texas is playing in-state and is listed as the underdog in this game?

I sure don't, as I think this Texas team is not very good. The Longhorns dropped their last pair of games to close the season, including a rather shocking home loss to TCU in a game they were favored by a touchdown.

Texas also failed in two of their three tries this year when listed as the underdog, this a season after they went 1-4 in the underdog role in 2011. Throw in Mack Brown's less-than-impressive 4-7 spread mark in bowl games their last 11, and it becomes clear that backing this Texas team is just not a very smart idea.

The Longhorns are also dealing with their QB Case McCoy and LB Jordan Hicks being sent home for a possible sexual assault allegation.

Oregon State returns to bowl play a season after they won just three games straight up a season ago. Mike Riley has gone a money-making 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in bowl games since the '03 season, so it is clear Riley knows how to get his team ready to play in these tricky holiday contests.

Expect the Beavers defense to make the stops against a Texas offense that sometimes sputters when trying to find the end-zone.

Take the Beavers.

3♦ OREGON STATE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Chris Jordan

Now on to my free play, as I head into the Alamodome, and look at the Pac 12's Oregon State against Big 12-entry Texas in what should be an upbeat, entertaining football game.

Perhaps I could give the Longhorns a bit more respect if they didn’t have to deal with the mental aspect of suspensions to quarterback Case McCoy and linebacker Jordan Hicks. In one fell swoop, you could almost feel the deflation of the Longhorns upon that announcement. Quite frankly, I don't see Texas being able to overcome inconsistent quarterback David Ash, and if he can't cut it, punter Alex King coming in off the bench.

Point blank, things are looking gloomy for Texas.

I'm much more intrigued by Oregon State quarterback Cody Vaz, who has looked impressive down the home stretch of his junior campaign. Vaz completed 60 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns with just one interception, and nearly led the Beavers to an upset of Stanford in OSU's last road game in the regular season.

The Beavers employ a system that could very well trip up Texas' schematics, as they like to huddle up, they won’t push the tempo and they use a methodical approach in getting the ball down field. On the other side of the ball, the Beavers feature the Pac-12’s fourth-ranked defense, which has allowed a mere 130.5 yards a game.

Overall, Oregon State ranked among the top 40 teams nationally in terms of both total offense (442.7 ypg.) and scoring (33.0 ppg.)

Bottom line in this game, is the Beavers are far better suited for the postseason, and make note, are a much more explosive team than the Cal team they beat 62-14, and that beat this  Texas program in the Holiday Bowl last year.

Take the Beavers boys; they're getting it done in the Alamo Bowl. And for the record, I am buying the half point off this point spread, no matter what the book is offering, whether it's 3, 3-1/2 or 4.

3♦ OREGON STATE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Matt Rivers

Free play winner for Saturday comes in college football as I expect the points on the Yankee Stadium scoreboard to increase in a hurry in this West Virginia-Syracuse Pinstripe Bowl from the Bronx.

These former conference rivals meet again, and last year's meeting saw a combined 72-points and an Over in their October 2011 showdown at the Carrier Dome.

West Virginia did play Under the total in their final pair of games during the regular season, but their three games prior were all well Over the total, and they are playing a Syracuse team that I don't think knows how to stay Under a total.

The Orange enter this game on a 5-0-1 Over clip their last six games, and did go 7-3-1 Over the total in their lined games this season.

Look for the points to get cranking early in this one, and for former Big East rivals West Virginia and Syracuse to ring up an Over in this season's Pinstripe Bowl.

2♦ WEST VIRGINIA-SYRACUSE OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday December, 29

Anthony Redd

Navy won the game that mattered most this season, rallying to beat Army. So although the Middies have won seven of their last eight games under the direction of freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds, they are NOT the play today in the Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco, even though they're catching a couple of touchdowns against Arizona State.

The Army game was their Super Bowl, the biggest of big games. That was their season. Nothing else mattered. Period.

I know you're thinking "Arizona State won it's biggest game by beating Arizona," but that in-state rivalry doesn't compare to drama involving the Army-Navy game.

The Middies, as usual, are going to run over and over again (No. 6 ground attack - 276 ypg) into a soft Sun Devil line ranked No. 71 in rushing defense. But, Arizona State will counter with an offensive attack that the undersized Navy defenders simply won't be able to stop frequently enough.

Should Navy try to throw with Reynolds, the freshman signal-caller will feel the heat from a Sun Devil pass rush that generated 48 sacks (No. 2 in the country) this season.

Arizona State jumps on Navy earlier and pulls away late for the 3-TD win and cover to snap a three-game bowl losing streak.

2♦ ARIZONA STATE

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