Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 30

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 30

DUNKEL INDEX

Dallas at Washington

The Redskins look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games against Dallas. Washington is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Redskins favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3)

Game 301-302: NY Jets at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 126.929; Buffalo 126.993
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: Miami at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 133.093; New England 145.612
Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New England by 10; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-10); Under

Game 305-306: Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.262; Cincinnati 136.088
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 307-308: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.481; Pittsburgh 133.167
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 309-310: Houston at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 136.397; Indianapolis 128.003
Dunkel Line: Houston by 8 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6 1/2); Under

Game 311-312: Jacksonville at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.324; Tennessee 128.863
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: Philadelphia at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 126.476; NY Giants 130.988
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+7 1/2); Over

Game 315-316: Dallas at Washington (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.004; Washington 138.157
Dunkel Line: Washington by 6; 46
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Under

Game 317-318: Chicago at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.177; Detroit 132.120
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3); Over

Game 319-320: Green Bay at Minnesota (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.563; Minnesota 132.130
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Under

Game 321-322: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.549; Atlanta 140.547
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 17; 38
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 323-324: Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 136.370; New Orleans 132.828
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+5 1/2); Over

Game 325-326: Kansas City at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 122.574; Denver 137.006
Dunkel Line: Denver by 14 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Denver by 17; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+17); Over

Game 327-328: Oakland at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.503; San Diego 137.082
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 15 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 329-330: Arizona at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 125.599; San Francisco 139.614
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14; 43
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 17; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+17); Over

Game 331-332: St. Louis at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 127.510; Seattle 149.603
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 22; 37
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 30

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Milwaukee at Detroit
The Bucks look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+3)

Game 801-802: Milwaukee at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 118.154; Detroit 118.427
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3; 192
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+3); Over

Game 803-804: San Antonio at Dallas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 126.288; Dallas 114.755
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 11 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 5 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-5 1/2); Under

Game 805-806: Boston at Sacramento (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 114.848; Sacramento 117.411
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 2 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 807-808: Utah at LA Clippers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 116.262; LA Clippers 132.571
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 16 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 9; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-9); Under

NCAAB

Dayton at USC
The Trojans look to take advantage of a Dayton team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. USC is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Trojans favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: USC (-1).

Game 809-810: Illinois State at Indiana State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 65.285; Indiana State 59.309
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 6
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (-3 1/2)

Game 811-812: Princeton at Akron (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 57.812; Akron 68.305
Dunkel Line: Akron by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Akron by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-8 1/2)

Game 813-814: Yale at St. Mary's (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 46.125; St. Mary's 66.550
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+22 1/2)

Game 815-816: Tulane at Alabama (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 55.428; Alabama 62.206
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 7; 128
Vegas Line: Alabama by 9; 124
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+9); Over

Game 817-818: Northern Iowa at Wichita State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 61.470; Wichita State 70.910
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-5)

Game 819-820: Southern Illinois at Missouri State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 50.454; Missouri State 44.013
Dunkel Line: Southern Illinois by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Southern Illinois by 4
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (-4)

Game 821-822: Dayton at USC (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 61.229; USC 64.205
Dunkel Line: USC by 3
Vegas Line: USC by 1
Dunkel Pick: USC (-1)

Game 823-824: Wofford at Virginia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 57.552; Virginia 68.775
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 11
Vegas Line: Virginia by 9
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-9)

Game 825-826: Canisius at Detroit (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 56.645; Detroit 63.860
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 7
Vegas Line: Detroit by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-5 1/2)

Game 827-828: Eastern Kentucky at West Virginia (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 50.610; West Virginia 60.134
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 11
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (+11)

Game 829-830: Furman at SMU (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 39.993; SMU 56.685
Dunkel Line: SMU by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: SMU by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-14 1/2)

Game 831-832: Loyola-MD at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 54.615; Memphis 65.867
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (+13 1/2)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 30

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami vs. New EnglandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New EnglandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I am playing on the New England Patriots.
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I have played successfully against the Pats the last two weeks but I think this is a week were the value has swung back to a team that is trying get in the right mode for its most important games of the year. The Pats scored just 23 points last game against Jags. I expect the number one offense in the league to pick it up here at home.
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Start this by saying that the Patriots have covered the spread in the last four straight regular season finale games. It would have been five straight if they had managed to cover a huge 22 point spread against the Dolphins. You will remember that that was the year they had the perfect season going and they won by just 21 points in the final game.
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Back to this year,  the Patriots failed to cover the spread in their last two games, barely coming out with a victory in Jacksonville and losing to the 49ers at home. Tom Brady and company are more than likely to come out swinging this week against a divisional opponent no matter if the team can get a top two seed in the AFC or not.
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"We've got to do a better job," Tom Brady said."We've got some pretty important weeks of football ahead, and that's when we really need to play our best."
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Note: If either of the Texans or the Broncos lose, the Patriots hold the tiebreaker over either of them. I doubt the Pats will even have this in their minds as the team has always tried to put its best on the field no matter the score or situation.
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The Dolphins are admittedly playing well with back to back wins. Note: these games were both at home and against the Bills and the Jags, two teams that don't play well on the road.
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Miami is 3-4 ATS on the road this year. Backers of the Dolphins got either a ATS win or a tie in the last game between these two teams. We have to remember the game was in Miami not New England.
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The Patriots last game on home turf was the heartbreaking loss against the 49ers, I expect the team to want to reestablish home field before the playoffs. It is altogether possible that the team won't have  many more games in New England this year.
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The Patriots are 3-1 ATS when playing Miami the last three seasons.
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Lay the points with the Pats.

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Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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N.Y. Jets vs. BuffaloFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BuffaloFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jets announced Thursday that Mark Sanchez will return to his role as starting quarterback for the season finale. Big deal.  If there's one thing I can guarantee for Sunday's game against the Bills it's that "the Sanchize" won't be repeating his 266 yard, 3 TD performance from Week 1.  Instead, I see the revenge angle carrying the home team to a win and cover in a meaningless game.
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The Jets' season has been an unmitigated disaster.  They are already assured of their first losing season of the Rex Ryan era and the QB situation is a three-ring circus - quite literally.  Sanchez stinks, Tim Tebow probably does too, but doesn't get a chance to show it and last week saw Greg McIlroy sacked 11 times in a 27-17 home loss to the equally inept San Diego Chargers.  It marked the fourth consecutive game where the Jets failed to gain even 300 yards total offense.
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Buffalo has been almost as pathetic offensively down the stretch and this game is likely to be Chan Gailey's last.  But I expect the Bills to send him out on a winning note.  This was a team that like the Jets had playoff aspirations before the year got underway. Like New York, they will be staying home for January and not for a bye week.  I feel the deciding factor here is revenge as a 48-28 loss in the season opener marked the eighth loss in the last nine meetings with the Jets.  That includes four straight here in Orchard Park.  The Jets are a disaster and deserve to be humiliated in the season opener.

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Chris ElliottFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago vs. DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bears can score on offense and defense, averaging 23.3 PPG to rank 15th in the NFL with their defense posting 9 TDs to lead the NFL with Tillman and Briggs accounting for a massive 5 defensive TDs combined. The Lions are averaging 23.2 PPG while totalling an excellent 311.5 yards with the top ranked passing offense. Expect Johnson to continue his record setting season with 1,892 receiving yards.
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The Bears QB Jay Cutler is healthy for this game and that is a big key for Chicago's offense as he is the catalyst with 2,776 yards and 18 TDs after missing a few starts this season. He has been especially strong after a slow start, with 15 TD and 8 INT in his last 11 games. Top RB Matt Forte was seen wearing a walking boot after Sunday's game but rest assured he will play Sunday in the teams biggest game thus far this season as they are in the thick of the playoff hunt. The Bears offense opens up on the road with the "Over" cashing in 5 of the last 6 road games with the average total in those games sitting at 47 PPG while they had a stretch of scoring 125 points in 3 road games in Oct/Nov against teams similarly ranked defensively as the Lions.
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The Lions have made their mark this season with the passing offense ranking 1st in the NFL as QB Matt Stafford has thrown the rock a jaw dropping 685 times in 15 games for an average of 45.7 attempts per game. They have posted an excellent 414.2 YPG to rank 2nd in the NFL while the passing offense ranks 1st overall with 311.5 yards in the air. WR Calvin Johnson broke hall of fame receiver Jerry Rice's record with an amazing 1,892 yards receiving as no defense has been able to slow him down averaging 126.1 YPG in the air. Overall Lions games are averaging 50.6 PPG while the games have been especially high scoring at home, averaging 51.6 PPG with 4 of the 7 games going Over.
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4 of the last 6 games between these two in Detroit have gone "Over" the total with the average total in those games sitting at 49.2 PPG. With the low projected total Sunday, take the "Over" to win this game. I successfully hit the "Over" in the past 2 weeks with my free plays and look to hit another easy winner here!

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City vs. DenverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Kansas CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I have won going against the Chiefs in each of the last two weekends, but this week I am going to back them when they take on Denver at Mile High. The Chiefs showed a lot of fight in their loss to the Colts this week, and they also played quite well the last time they played Denver.
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The Broncos won a tight game on the road in Kansas City, winning 17-9 on November 25 (I had a 2-team teaser with Denver + UNDER). Denver is the hottest team in the league, winning 10 straight games, and they are 7-3 ATS during that span. They have already clinched their division, and while they would like to have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, staying healthy might prove to be far more important.
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The Chiefs offense combined for more than 500 yards in a losing effort against the Colts last week, and their defense held Indianapolis to less than 300 yards of offense. Jamal Charles had a standout performance, running for 226 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. The game remained tied for most of the fourth quarter, until Andrew Luck hooked up with Reggie Wayne in the final minutes of the game.
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Denver is more than a two touchdown favorite at home this week, despite the fact that the Chiefs have covered the points in each of the two previous meetings in 2012. In fact, going back to 2010 the Chiefs have won two of four, and neither of the two losses were by double digits.
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There is no doubt that Denver is a better team, but I don't think this is the week they put it all on the line and play smash mouth football from whistle to whistle.

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Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Dolphins at New England PatriotsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Miami DolphinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a rematch of the first encounter between these two teams which was a tight game that New England (11-4) won by a 23-16 score as an 8-point favorite. That game was in Miami so now the Patriots host the rematch but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 times the Dolphins came to town. After losing to San Francisco at home two weeks ago, New England traveled to Jacksonville as a 14-point favorite and narrowly escaped with a 23-16 win there as well. Now asking the Patriots to cover a double-digit line against a divisional rival is a tough assignment. Miami (7-8) has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC East opponents. They have now won two games in a row after their 24-10 win versus Buffalo last week. First-year head coach Joe Philbon is getting the most of his talent as this group has now covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, this Miami team has proven themselves capable road warriors who have covered 23 of their last 30 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Lastly, in their last 6 games played in the month of December, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of these contests. Take the points with Miami in this one.

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Carlo CampanellaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Rams vs. Seattle SeahawksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM   
Play: St Louis RamsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle (10-5) is one of the hottest teams in the NFL as they head into the final game of the regular season on a 6-2 SU & ATS run, including 4-0 SU & ATS during their last four games while scoring 42 points or more in 3 straight games. At 10-5 they have already earned a Wildcard spot and a victory over the Rams on Sunday would only help their cause if NFC West division leading San Francisco were upset by struggling Arizona. They face the Rams (7-7-1) for the second time this season, losing to them in St. Louis by 6 points, 19-13. While Seattle is a better team now and will probably get their revenge at home this Sunday, these Rams are also a better team that has won 4 of their final 5 games, including a victory over the 49ers! The Rams are winning behind solid defensive play, holding 4 of their last 5 opponents to 17 points or less, including 4 straight games allowing 90 rushing yards or less. Must take the double digits with a stingy Rams defense that is playing without any Playoff pressure.

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Jack JonesFOR  FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Carolina Panthers +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Panthers are playing their best football of the season right now. This is a team that I was very high on coming into the season, but one that simply could not catch any breaks in the first half of the season. Seven of their nine losses have come by 6 points or less this year.
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Carolina hasn’t let these close losses stop it from playing out the rest of the season. In fact, the Panthers have now won three straight and four of their last five games overall. What’s most impressive about their three-game winning streak is the fact that all three victories have come by double-digits, including a 31-7 win at San Diego.
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There’s no question that the Panthers have the better defense in this one. They are giving up 21.7 points per game, including 19.7 on the road, while also ranking 8th in the league in total defense at 325.9 yards per game. New Orleans is yielding 27.3 points per game overall while ranking 32nd in the NFL in total defense at 434.5 yards per game.
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New Orleans has finally officially been eliminated from the playoffs, and that realization sets it up for a letdown spot here. Carolina already beat the Saints 35-27 at home in their first meeting this season in a game that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. New Orleans scored a late garbage touchdown to make it respectable. The Panthers gained 463 total yards in the win, including 219 on the ground.
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The Saints are 24-45 ATS in their last 69 home games vs. division opponents. New Orleans is 5-18 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less since 1992. Carolina is 51-22 ATS in its last 73 games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game. The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Panthers Sunday.

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John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. NY GiantsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: NY GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Looking ahead to the Sunday NFL card, there are several extremely important games for many teams still contending for a playoff position. The NFC East is by far the most uncertain with three teams, the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys, in control of their own destiny for the most part. The Skins control their playoff destiny with a win or loss by both Minnesota and Chicago. It is even more simple for the Cowboys, who play the Redskins. Win and the Cowboys are in. Lose and they are out. The Giants are all, but out as they need to defeat the Eagles and then have a loss or tie with Dallas and losses by both Chicago and Minnesota. Eli Manning has not passed for more than 300 yards in his last eight games in large part because of the multitude of injuries to skill position players. The Giants are playing a very dysfunctional Eagles team, who will be starting Vick at QB, and who was not even the backup in last week’s game. One way to get Manning to that 300 level is to get the running game going against the 22nd best run defense. Moreover, Coughlin is 14-1 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games as the coach of the Giants. Take the Giants.

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SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +11 -110 over SEATTLE

This is where the NFL is its most screwy. The Seahawks are in full flight, knocking out any team that stands in their way. They’ve scored a ridiculous 150 points in their past three games and they are 7-0 at home, heading to this final game as hosts. This should be another cakewalk, right? Not quite. Seattle has little to play for, as the only way it moves up is if Arizona wins in San Fran. Conversely, the Rams are motivated as they can have their first winning season since 2003.

St. Louis has played its best football in their own division with a 4-0-1 mark ATS, including a 19-13 victory over this host. The Seahawks can take their foot of the gas here with a playoff game upcoming next weekend, making this is a tremendously generous amount of points to be receiving.


Dallas +3½ -114 over WASHINGTON

This Sunday nighter will conclude the 2012 regular season and it should be an interesting affair as there is much at stake in this long standing rivalry. For the Cowboys, it is simple. Win and they’re in, lose and they won’t play again until September.

The Skins take the division with a win but can still back into playoffs with a loss, requiring some good fortune from other games. Washington remains a hot club with six straight wins and covers. With the emergence of Robert Griffin III, they are difficult to fade. But we prefer the experienced and hot hand of Tony Romo and the Dallas defense, to a hobbled Griffin and a suspect Redskins defensive unit. Dallas games tend to be close, including past three that have been decided by a combined 7-points. This one should follow pattern.


N.Y. Jets +3 +106 over BUFFALO

Jets were officially eliminated last week but with heavy scrutiny reigning upon them, still have something to prove. Bills appear to have thrown in the towel with back-to-back lackluster performances while being outscored 74-17 in that pair. Not an ideal situation for spotting points.


NEW ENGLAND -10 -105 over Miami

Patriots will be playing for a better playoff seeding and quite possibly a first round bye. That’s motivation enough for this December powerhouse to peak our interest. We’ll excuse New England’s half-hearted effort last week on heels of two intense games with top seeded clubs. Dolphins defense sound but offense is in no shape to keep pace in a meaningless game played in unfamiliar, cold surroundings.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 30

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Jets +3 +106 over BUFFALO

Jets were officially eliminated last week but with heavy scrutiny reigning upon them, still have something to prove. Bills appear to have thrown in the towel with back-to-back lackluster performances while being outscored 74-17 in that pair. Not an ideal situation for spotting points.


NEW ENGLAND -10 -105 over Miami

Patriots will be playing for a better playoff seeding and quite possibly a first round bye. That’s motivation enough for this December powerhouse to peak our interest. We’ll excuse New England’s half-hearted effort last week on heels of two intense games with top seeded clubs. Dolphins defense sound but offense is in no shape to keep pace in a meaningless game played in unfamiliar, cold surroundings. 


CINCINNATI -2½ -110 over Baltimore

Ends up that this game that many thought might be for all the AFC North marbles really isn't for anything. The Ravens already won the division and the Bengals are locked into being a wild card team. That could mean either team may rest players since both will be playing in the first round. There is also a chance these same two teams meet next week in the playoffs so neither will want to show its hand. However, each coach is taking a different approach as Marvin Lewis will employ a regular line-up while John Harbaugh will preserve his guys. That’s the report. Is it believable? Too many intangibles make this one tough to pick a side but since we’re forced to, we’ll side with host. No units risked.


Houston -6½ -111 over INDIANAPOLIS

Texans playing for home field and first round bye while Colts are locked into the #6 seed. Following a two-win season and low expectations, imagine the delirium in Colts locker room after clinching playoff berth last week. Now emotionally spent and likely to rest some starters, Colts are a good fade proposition. No units risked.


Tampa Bay +3½ -105 over ATLANTA

Taking down the Giants and then the Lions in dominating fashion has left the Falcons with nothing to play for this week, although the word is that they will try really hard and care what happens. They are 7-0 at home and the Buccaneers are struggling more in recent weeks. It certainly casts a light of concern for the notable starters on Atlanta. They will get a week off so you do not want to sit around for two weeks and get stale but you do not want anyone to get injured. No units risked.

Motivation is always something to consider in this league and in that sense, the Bucs figure to be the more motivated bunch. They’re on a five game losing streak and surely don’t want to end year on such a sour run after showing so much promise. 


Oakland +10 -110 over SAN DIEGO

Last week the Chargers beat up the Jets in New York. Before that they were waxed at home by the Panthers. Before that, they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Before that, they lost at home to the Bengals. There has been little rhyme or reason to what the Chargers did this year other than it was below average in most cases. They know that this is the last they'll be playing for Norv Turner and how they’ll respond is anyone’s guess.

Whether it’s Terrell Pryor or Matt Leinart (or both) taking the snaps for the Raiders, both are auditioning for something bigger. The Raiders defense has been much better over past four games, allowing just 63 points and that includes games against Denver and Carolina. Teams like New England, Denver, San Fran and Green Bay are commonly favored in this range while teams like San Diego rarely are and rarely should be. This is not an exception. No units risked.   


TENNESSEE -4 -107 over Jacksonville

Jags played hard last week in a game effort to make life tougher for New England. Even so, Jacksonville only scored 16 points and now averaging less than 12 points per game over past four. Jaguars tripped up Titans in earlier meeting and losing twice to this hapless divisional opponent is not an option. No units risked.


N.Y. GIANTS -7½ +103 over Philadelphia


Giants can only qualify for post-season play with a win while Vikings, Bears and Cowboys must all lose. It’s a tall order but stranger things have happened. Eagles are forced to start Michael Vick. That’s not a good thing as Nick Foles had a rhythm going that Vick never found and this will likely be Vick’s final game as an Eagle. The Eagles are also preparing for their first coaching turnover since 1998 and their motivation for this one has to come into question. No units risked.


DETROIT +3 -105 over Chicago

Bears would clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Vikings loss and while it’s hard to put much faith in the reckless Lions, they know the situation and they figure to show up motivated here with chance to knock this rival out. Can one trust a Bears team that had lost three straight prior to win at Arizona last week, which included two within this NFC North division? We think not. Chicago started 7-1 but are 2-5 since and now spotting road points in consecutive weeks. No units risked.


MINNESOTA +3½ -110 over Green Bay

Both teams have something at stake here so full efforts expected. While the Packers appear to be peaking at right time, the Vikings keep proving that they belong. A win here and the Vikes are in. They can also get in should they lose and the Bears, Cowboys and Giants all lose too.

Regardless if they win or lose, hats off to the Vikings who have prevailed and won their last three games. The defense is largely underrated and yet formidable and the special teams have helped even without Percy Harvin. Vikes taking points in their domed stadium with a smoking hot Adrian Peterson gets the lean here. No units risked.


Carolina +5½ -110 over NEW ORLEANS

Had Panthers played with same determination they’ve shown in recent weeks, we’d be talking about their playoff chances. Instead, they’ll have to settle for building on current momentum and taking some points against a Saints team that is anxious for this Bountygate season to finally end. No units risked.


DENVER -16 -101 over Kansas City

Spotting these points can be risky business but we’d rather go with masses here as the Broncos are in top form while the Chiefs can’t wait for this miserable season to end. The Broncos can clinch a first round bye with a win here and if the Texans were to lose as well, the Broncos become the #1 seed.

You can’t be sure when the Broncos feel comfortable enough to pull back the reins a bit but with a 16-point spread, common sense says this game should be a blowout of some measure. The Chiefs last two road games saw them score a combined seven points and one of those occurred in Oakland. The Broncos last two home games totaled 65 points. Matching the 30+ points they’ve scored in 6 of 7 home games should get the job done.


SAN FRAN -16½ -101 over Arizona

Niners would clinch the West with a win or a Seahawks loss. They also need win to clinch a bye but also need the Packers to lose for that to occur. Both start at same time so expect 49ers to be ready to go. 49ers dominated this weakling in earlier meeting in the desert and off a loss and with division at stake, you know Jim Harbaugh will go full throttle. No units risked.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 30

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Arizona +16.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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They have just weighed down the 49ers with too much of a load here in my view. 16.5 points is a sick amount in the NFL guys. I'm a Missouri guy and love both the Smith's, Justin & Aldon but the fact that Justin is our this week with his torn bicep muscle will impact the San Francisco defense more than most suspect. Aldon is a terrific pass rusher, as we've all clearly seen, but he is and always has been since his days here at Mizzou marginal at best when it comes to run support. And with Justin out I can see the Cardinals grinding out some success on the ground his way. To be candid this is not a game I would suggest even watching unless you have a bottle of pepto bismol handy. It won't be a work of art but when the dust settles here I see the Niners getting a win under their belts in a workmanlike fashion but the guys with the Cardinals tickets cashing at the windows in Vegas.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 30

Wunderdog

Houston at Indianapolis
Pick: Over 46.5

The Houston Texans need the win here. A win clinches home-field advantage for as long as they manage to stay in the playoffs. However, the Colts certainly aren't going to wave the white flag. The Colts will get a huge emotional lift out of the return to the sidelines of their head coach Chuck Pagano. The Texans average 27 points per game and of late, their defense has been allowing an equal amount as offenses seem to have found ways to exploit the secondary. In their last six games, the Texans have allowed 31+ three times and the average points allowed has been 26.7. The only team they kept under 23 points was the lowly Titans. In the Gary Kubiak era, the Texans are 31-19 OVER after a loss including 18-6 OVER after a double-digit loss. The Colts average 24 points per game in dome games and they should score enough here to get this game OVER the total.

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WUNDERDOG

Houston at Indianapolis
Pick: Over 46.5

The Houston Texans need the win here. A win clinches home-field advantage for as long as they manage to stay in the playoffs. However, the Colts certainly aren't going to wave the white flag. The Colts will get a huge emotional lift out of the return to the sidelines of their head coach Chuck Pagano. The Texans average 27 points per game and of late, their defense has been allowing an equal amount as offenses seem to have found ways to exploit the secondary. In their last six games, the Texans have allowed 31+ three times and the average points allowed has been 26.7. The only team they kept under 23 points was the lowly Titans. In the Gary Kubiak era, the Texans are 31-19 OVER after a loss including 18-6 OVER after a double-digit loss. The Colts average 24 points per game in dome games and they should score enough here to get this game OVER the total.

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Arizona vs. San FranciscoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What to expect: The 49ers defense will relish the opportunity to finally take a step down in class after going up against the Patriots and Seahawks in the last two weeks, on the road no less. The Cardinals are simply playing out the string right now. Even last week in their home finale, they managed to score only six points on offense (the other seven came by way of a blocked punt for a touchdown) against the Bears.
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They'll be hard-pressed to reach double-figures again this week. I don't expect to see the 49ers offense explode off that poor showing in Seattle last week. Much like they did in Arizona back in late October, I look for them to manage this game cleanly, and ultimately finish up in the high-20s. Save for that 41-point outburst against the Patriots, it's not as if the Niners have really been lighting it up offensively over the last month or so. This has all the makings of a 'win and move on' type of game for Jim Harbaugh's squad, and I look for it to play out accordingly. The Cardinals simply won't put up enough of a fight to help this one over the low total.
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Final verdict: San Francisco 27 Arizona 7

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Chicago vs. DetroitFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rather than a good luck offering, the Bears could use a get-well-soon card. Behind an offensive line hanging by threads, wobbly RB Matt Forte looks to start in this all important, must-win game for the Bears, who must defeat Detroit and then hope Green Bay downs Minnesota later in the day in order to slip into the playoffs. The defense remains in shambles with star LB Brian Urlacher, S Chris Conte and DL Henry Melton all MIA and hoping to don the pads this week. Ironically, the Bears were most healthy when they met the Lions on a Monday night in mid-October. Rookie WR Alshon Jeffery was their only starter who was out because of an injury in a game won by the Bears, 13-7. Meanwhile, the Lions are easily the biggest enigma in the league, 4-11 on the scoreboard in spite of being +65 net YPG on the season. It’s turnovers that have done them in (-12 net on the season). Detroit’s 9-3 ATS home dog log when seeking revenge in ‘4th quarter games’ (Games Thirteen thru Sixteen) grabs our attention. Lovie Smith’s penchant for lumping up in games against opponents off back-to-back losses cements it (3-17-1 ATS versus those foes seeking revenge). After sleeping for the last two months in the mighty jungle, the Lion wakes today.

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Baltimore vs. CincinnatiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Weather conditions are expected to be almost arctic-like at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday, making it unlikely we'll see much in the form of offensive pyrotechnics from either the visiting Ravens or host Bengals. Remember that Baltimore QB Joe Flacco has struggled all season on the road, where the Ravens have posted 14 ppg fewer than when home at M&T Bank Stadium.  Which is hardly good news against Mike Zimmer's voracious Cincy defense that has allowed more than 13 points just once in its last seven games!  The Bengals, "under" 6-1 in their last seven outings, are likely to be involved in another low-scoring game on Sunday vs. Baltimore.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Bengals -2½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati has really turned things around this season, going 6-1 over their last seven games, including a big win last week over the Pittsburgh Steelers that locked up the sixth seed in the AFC. The team's only loss during that stretch was to the Dallas Cowboys and came on a last second field goal to lose by a single point.
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Baltimore on the other hand is headed the opposite direction. Sure they beat the NY Giants last week but in the three weeks prior were a home loss to Pittsburgh without Big Ben, at Washington, and a 17 point defeat at home to the Denver Broncos.
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The only thing I don't love about this game is that it doesn't mean anything to Cincinnati. Sure, if they win they can claim a share of the division title, and that might mean something to a team with such a poor history, but they can't move up to the five seed. Without knowing their motivation and if they will rest their starters for the playoffs, I'm only going to play this one for action.

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NY Giants -7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Well, if the Giants don't make it to the post season they only have themselves to blame as they held a 6-2 record at the mid-point of the season but faltered winning only two of their next seven. Now, New York need a win and plenty of help from the rest of the league to qualify. The headaches won't get any better for the Eagles Andy Reid as Mike Vick gets pummeled once again by a determined Giants squad. Take NEW YORK!

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