Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 27

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 27

Hollywood Sports

New Mexico at Cincinnati
Prediction: Under

New Mexico (12-1) looks to rebound from their 70-65 loss to San Diego State and they should tighten things up on the defensive end as they have played 20 of their last 29 games following a loss Under the Total. The Lobos have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the Big East. Cincinnati (12-0) comes off a 65-58 win versus Wright State as a 18-point favorite and they have played 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Lobos are 2-0 on the road this season and the Bearcats have played 14 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And Cincy has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Big East. Take the Under in this one.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 27

Joe Gavazzi

LA Clippers -8 ½

This matchup features the aging Celtics who easily outlasted Brooklyn on Christmas Day, 93-76. It was, however, just their first road win in their last six outings. It also sets up this strong situational play for the home standing Clippers. Better teams playing at home as a single digit fav, following a home win of 10 or more, are 52-24 ATS (68%) against an opponent coming off a double digit divisional win. With Doc Rivers just 30-51 ATS following a road win of 10 or more points, we comfortably suit up with the LA Clippers who are on a 14-0 SU run, averaging 105 PPG with the best bench in the NBA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 27

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

UCLA -3 over Baylor: That’s mainly because they can play some defense. The UCLA defense isn’t special overall as they have allowed 26 ppg and 410 ypg, but that is FAR better than a Baylor defense that has allowed 523 ypg and 38 ppg on the year. Versus this year’s bowl squad it’s even worse as the Bruins have allowed 28 ppg and 412 ypg, while Baylor’s defense has allowed 42 ppg and 552 ypg. That is unreal and it’s the UCLA defense that gives them a big edge here. The offensive edge does go to Baylor, but UCLA’s offense is no slouch as they have averaged a healthy 35 ppg overall, including 37 ppg vs bowl teams. The Bruins have more than enough firepower to put up allot of points on this Baylor defense, while the Bruin defense will come up with enough stops to get the cover in this one.


Duke/ Cincinnati Over 60.5: The Bearcat offense has been one of the best in the Big East this year, as they have averaged 430.8 ypg and 31 ppg. Tonight they have a huge chance on increasing those numbers as they face a Duke squad that was horrible on defense down the stretch.  For the year the Blue Devils come in 105th in total defense (462 ypg) and 103rd in points allowed (35 ppg), but in their last 4 games this unit has been horrendous, allowing 49.5 ppg and 593 ypg over that stretch. Offensively, Duke has been a solid group led by Sean Renfree. The Blue Devils have averaged 31.3 ppg on the year and capped their regular season by putting up 45 points on Miami. Duke is thrilled to be in the bowl game and you can bet they will go all out offensively to win it. The Bearcats will score a bunch off of this weak duke defense, while the Devils will get their share of points off a good Cincinnati defense. Duke games have averaged 66 ppg, with 9 of their 12 games putting up 61 or more points.  I expect 65+ in this one.


Bowing Green/ San Jose State Under 44.5: Gave away part of my writeup in Nicks thread, but will reiterate those points here. San Jose State has a vaunted passing attack, but most of that damage was done vs weak WAC defenses. Outside the WAC the Spartans have faced a couple of tough defenses in BYU and Stanford and in those games they did throw for 516 total yards, but put up just 37 points in the two games. Let's also note that in their lone game on the East Coast this year (Vs Navy), they were able to muster just 12 points and 388 yards of offense. The Spartans have absolutely no running game (104th in nation) and that means that Bowling green's 7th ranked passing defense (173 ypg) can just concentrate on the Spartan passing game. Overall this Bowling defense has been stellar this year, allowing just 15.8 ppg (8th) and 289.7 ppg and San Jose state has averaged just 23 ppg vs bowl teams this year. The Bowling Green offense is very conservative as they come in 87th in total offense and 93rd in scoring (23.2 ppg), plus they have averaged just 16 ppg vs bowl teams this year. This is a run first offense and that should eat clock and they are just 81st in the nation in passing. The Spartans defense is not all that bad and if ya throw out the games vs La Tech and Utah State then they have allowed just 16.5 ppg on the year. High winds should keep the offenses grounded and allow these two very good defenses to keep the scoring low. Mid 30's at best here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 27

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

New Mexico/ Cincinnati Under 135: Both of these teams teams have played some high scoring games, but most of that was vs very weak competition. Cincinnati is off three games vs Marshall, Xavier and Wright State and, while they are not the best of competition, they are still normal lined teams. In those games there has been an average of 119.7 ppg, plus we note that in an earlier game vs Alabama just 114 points were scored in that one. Cincinnati really seems to play the tougher games a little close to the vest and I expect they will tonight as well. The Lobos are 12-1 on the year and they have an excellent defense that has allowed just 62.6 ppg on 40.6% shooting and while the Bearcats average 79.3 ppg they arev not a great shooting team, hitting just 44.6% of their shots, plus they are just 61.4% from the FT line.   The Lobo's also score well, but they don't shot all that well either, hitting just 42.1% of their shots. The Lobo's should have a tough time on offense vs a very tough Bearcat defense that allows just 57.7 ppg on 34.6% shooting overall and 56.9 pg on 33.4% shooting at home. I don't expect either offense to get in much of a flow vs a couple of very solid defensive teams. Look for less than 130 in this one.   

TROY -3 over Florida Atlantic: The Trojans haven't been all that great at home as they are just 3-3 here, but the Owls have been bad on the road, going 1-5. The owls are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Owls average just 61.5 ppg and shoot 35.1% from the field on the road, while being outscored by 16.3 ppg in those contests. The Owls also struggle on the defensive end on the road as they allow 77.8 ppg on 44.8% shooting and that should allow a mediocre Trojan offense to get going a bit here. I look for the Trojans to win this one rather easily.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 27

Steve Janus

Celtics +8.5

The Clippers are over-valued due to their 14-game winning streak. The Celtics will be playing with a ton of confidence after their 93-76 win at Brooklyn on Christmas Day. I will gladly take the 8.5-points in what I believe will be a defensive battle. Boston has covered the spread in 56% of their games as a road underdog under head coach Doc Rivers. They are an even better 61% as a road underdog of 6.5-12 points.

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