Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 27

Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 27

DUNKEL INDEX

Cincinnati vs. Duke
The Bearcats look to build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 non-conference games. Cincinnati is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Bearcats favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7)

Game 217-218: San Jose State vs. Bowling Green (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 86.323; Bowling Green 83.717
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 2 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+7); Over

Game 219-220: Cincinnati vs. Duke (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 92.110; Duke 79.712
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 12 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 60
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under

Game 221-222: Baylor vs. UCLA (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 106.482; UCLA 105.469
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 1; 83
Vegas Line: UCLA by 1; 79 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+1); Over

NBA

Boston at LA Clippers
The Clippers look to take advantage of a Boston team that is coming off a 93-76 win over Brooklyn and is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. LA is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-8 1/2)

Game 501-502: Dallas at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 111.314; Oklahoma City 128.311
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 17; 216
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 503-504: Boston at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.206; LA Clippers 131.933
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 13 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8 1/2; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-8 1/2); Under

NCAAB

New Mexico at Cincinnati
The Lobos look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. New Mexico is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Bearcats favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+7)

Game 505-506: Florida Atlantic at Troy (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 46.283; Troy 47.800
Dunkel Line: Troy by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Troy by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+3 1/2)

Game 507-508: UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 49.280; Arkansas State 57.336
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 8
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-6 1/2)

Game 509-510: Florida International at Western Kentucky (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 51.663; Western Kentucky 60.129
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 6
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-6)

Game 511-512: New Mexico at Cincinnati (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 68.238; Cincinnati 72.669
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 135
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+7); Over

Game 513-514: Rhode Island at St. Mary's (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 55.156; St. Mary's 72.817
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's by 16
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (-16)

Game 515-516: IPFW at IUPUI (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 47.884; IUPUI 50.389
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: IUPUI by 1
Dunkel Pick: IUPUI (-1)

Game 517-518: Oakland at Western Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 51.847; Western Illinois 63.475
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Illinois by 6
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (-6)

Game 519-520: Northern Arizona at BYU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 44.452; BYU 61.856
Dunkel Line: BYU by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: BYU by 20
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+20)

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Timothy BlackFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor vs. UCLAFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 80½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Over has hit in the Bruins last 6 games to close the regular season and the Over is 21-5-1 in the Bears last 27 games overall! Also, the Over is 19-6-1 in the Bears last 26 games against a team with a winning record while it's a perfect 5-0 in UCLA's last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. Baylor's games have averaged over 82 ppg on the year and UCLA's dangerous offense will benefit from the porous Bears defense to increase the 35 ppg they've averaged so far this season.

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Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Mexico vs Cincinnati
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New Mexico just lost its first game of the season against South Dakota State and super guard Nate Wolters. Now they have to travel across the country to face Cincinnati - who is still undefeated - at home. The Bearcats feature one of the best backcourts in the nation and the Lobos couldn’t contain the one man gang that is Wolters. This is a good team but this is a bad situation and bad time to hit the road. The first of two tough ones as they visit St. Louis afterwards. They might already be thinking about just going 1 for 2. All of this would be moot if the Bearcats weren’t bringing it...they are.

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Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Clippers    
Play: Los Angeles ClippersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Clippers fit the system below that pertains to home favorites with 1 day of rest that scored 100 or more points at home as a favorite of 5 or more while shooting 45% or higher and dishing out 25 or more assists, vs an opponent like Boston that scored 90 or more as a road dog of 4 or less and had less than 25 assists. These home teams are 21-4 to the spread the past few seasons. The Clippers are on huge win streak and will be hard to beat here tonight. They have also covered 10 of 13 the last 13 this month and are 11-3 ats off a win of 10 or more. The Celtics have failed to cover in 10 of their last 11 road losses as a dog. Look for the Clipper to keep rolling.

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rhode Island at Saint Marys Ca
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Very tough spot for URI. The Rams are a long ways from Little Rhody, they aren't very good, and they're running into a Gaels entry that did not play well last time out in losing at Northern Iowa. Wrong place at the wrong time for URI. Spot the big points with Saint Mary's.

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Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers
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The Clippers are just as focused on playing good basketball as they are on the winning streak -- and that can be a concern for a young team. The Clippers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and a veteran Boston team comes to town, one with much better depth than last year. They put on a great defensive display on Xmas Day, winning at Brooklyn. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Play the Celtics!

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Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor +1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UCLA's defense gave up 500 yards to 4 different teams this year and over 400 yards + for the season.  Baylor has one of the top offenses in the nation and they knocked off a #1 Team.  Baylors coach is no slouch either.  Given that both defenses are not any good, I will go with the more talented and veteran team on offense...Baylor wins in a shootout....

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UCLA -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor has been an offensive juggernaut this season, ranked 1st in offense (578.8 yard per game) and putting up over 41 points per game. Quarterback Nick Florence leads this team with 387 yards of offense per game, but you have to factor in these inflated numbers with how horrible the Bears defense is. Here is the key matchup analysis which leads to a UCLA win: Yes, Baylor puts up tons of points. BUT, they also give up 523 yards per game (worst of any Bowl team) AND ONLY registered 13 sacks all season. One of the major flaws of this UCLA squad is the amount of sacks they give up (46 on the season). UCLA will actually be able to not worry about their QB being on his ass all game and this will be the difference maker in a game that we have UCLA winning by 7 or more.

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Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Celtics / Clippers Over 190FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston hammered Brooklyn on Christmas Day as the Nets continued their down-tick.  The Celtics allowed just 76 points in the 17-point win, but that was more about the Nets' struggles rather than a "buy" sign on Boston.  The Celtics enter on a 12-3-1 Over run when playing with one day off between games.  Boston had allowed 101.5 ppg in their previous six outings and they simply don't have the defenders to matchup well with the Clippers when L.A. is on the offensive end.  However, the Celtics are the league's 5th best shooting team.  Meanwhile, the Clippers average 101.6 ppg on the season and rank 3rd in shooting, making 47.9% of the shots.  LAC also owns a deep and offensive-minded bench with Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes leading the way.  Boston heads to L.A. with a 5-8 SU road record and the Clippers normally turn up the offensive heat against struggling road teams.  They're on an 11-3-1 Over run at home against teams winning less than 60% of their road games.  Meanwhile, the Celtics are on an 8-2-1 Over run against Pacific Division teams and they are on a 7-3-1 Over run when the total sits from 190 to 199.  More of the same on Thursday.  I'm playing the Over between the Celtics & Clippers.

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Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bowling Green / San Jose St Over 44FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The trepidation here on this particular bet has always been Bowling Green's inability to score. Given time to prepare, I expect that they will be able to put some points on the board, if not early, then late. I don't TOTALLY trust SJSU's defense, although it doesn't suck. They did pad their stats against teams like UTSA, UC Davis, Idaho, and the likes. Bowling Green may not be a juggernaut, but they're better than the aforementioned. And Fales, Grigsby and the likes should be able to score on Bowling Green. They've (BGSU) not really played a team like this yet this season, and in fact most of the second half of the season, they've actually played terrible offenses. I'd like to also take the points here, but if we're going to play this game, I see this over as the better play, given that both teams will either play the full sixty minutes, of if SJSU DOES get way out they'll play the waterboys and perhaps give up late points. No need to bore you with stats here, as they can be interpreted any number of ways. There's definitely some movement suggesting the under here, but at the current number of 44, which is a full field goal better than the opener, the value lies in the over, IMO. SJSU played very few games this season where they and their opponent failed to reach this number, so that's the plan.

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UCLA -3 over Baylor: That’s mainly because they can play some defense. The UCLA defense isn’t special overall as they have allowed 26 ppg and 410 ypg, but that is FAR better than a Baylor defense that has allowed 523 ypg and 38 ppg on the year. Versus this year’s bowl squad it’s even worse as the Bruins have allowed 28 ppg and 412 ypg, while Baylor’s defense has allowed 42 ppg and 552 ypg. That is unreal and it’s the UCLA defense that gives them a big edge here. The offensive edge does go to Baylor, but UCLA’s offense is no slouch as they have averaged a healthy 35 ppg overall, including 37 ppg vs bowl teams. The Bruins have more than enough firepower to put up allot of points on this Baylor defense, while the Bruin defense will come up with enough stops to get the cover in this one.
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Duke/ Cincinnati Over 60.5: The Bearcat offense has been one of the best in the Big East this year, as they have averaged 430.8 ypg and 31 ppg. Tonight they have a huge chance on increasing those numbers as they face a Duke squad that was horrible on defense down the stretch.  For the year the Blue Devils come in 105th in total defense (462 ypg) and 103rd in points allowed (35 ppg), but in their last 4 games this unit has been horrendous, allowing 49.5 ppg and 593 ypg over that stretch. Offensively, Duke has been a solid group led by Sean Renfree. The Blue Devils have averaged 31.3 ppg on the year and capped their regular season by putting up 45 points on Miami. Duke is thrilled to be in the bowl game and you can bet they will go all out offensively to win it. The Bearcats will score a bunch off of this weak duke defense, while the Devils will get their share of points off a good Cincinnati defense. Duke games have averaged 66 ppg, with 9 of their 12 games putting up 61 or more points.  I expect 65+ in this one.

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Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Bearcats -6.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Mexico just lost its first game of the season against South Dakota State and super guard Nate Wolters. Now they have to travel across the country to face Cincinnati - who is still undefeated - at home. The Bearcats feature one of the best backcourts in the nation and the Lobos couldn’t contain the one man gang that is Wolters. This is a good team but this is a bad situation and bad time to hit the road. The first of two tough ones as they visit St. Louis afterwards. They might already be thinking about just going 1 for 2. All of this would be moot if the Bearcats weren’t bringing it...they are.

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Spartan

Baylor +3

I am going to go with the Holiday Bowl as my free selection.If you like defense, then turn away from this one and tune into something else because this one is not for you. I am going to cut right to the quick here. I like Art Briles and his Baylor Bears to take care of business here against UCLA. Too bad the Bears could not put together more efforts like the one they exhibited against Kansas State back on November 17th when they took to the field as an 11.5 point dog and manhandled the Wildcats destroying any hopes K-State had of appearing in the national title game. I thought Nick Florence did a helluva job this fall stepping into the QB role following Griffin. Talk about monster shoes to fill. But in the end he did throw for over 4,000 yards and fire off 31 TD passes and even rushed himself for a stellar 531 yards. In my opinion for the Bruins to have their best chance in this shootout is to put pressure on Florence and that could be much easier said than done. The Baylor offensive line did a more than reasonable job this season keeping Florence upright considering he tossed a total 451 times and was sacked a mere 16 times over the duration of the season to date. In the final analysis I cannot see the Bruins keeping pace here. The Baylor defense, although nobody will be comparing them to Bama anytime soon, was making progress as the year moved along. Just ask Bill Snyder and any of his Wildcats. This should be an entertaining one, if you like lot's of points, but I see Baylor pulling away and prevailing 47-34. Unless the Bears have a horrific night with turnovers, they will leave San Diego celebrating a nice Bowl winner.

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Sean Higgs

Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Boston Celtics +350

Yes, the Clippers have won 14 straight. But I will take a veteran Celtics bunch here to end it. The Clippers last loss was right here at home vs New Orleans. Yes. New Orleans. The 6-22, 3 road win team. Underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 in this series, and the Celtics have won out-right their last 2 trips here. Let's make it a 3rd for +350

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Charlie ScottFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati vs. DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Don't see much motivation for Cinci after Cincinnati Coach Jones left the program at the end of the regular season for a better job at Tennessee. Remember a couple of yrs ago When Brian Kelly left Cincinnati for Notre Dame, Cinci never showed up for their Bowl gm. During the regular season, Cincinnati defense struggled to stop the pass on defense, expect the same Tonight. Duke players should be motivated as this is their first Bowl game under Coach Cutcliffe and the schools first Bowl gm since 1994.

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JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LA Clippers -8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Taking these Clippers tonight late as it looks way to easy imo to grab the 8.5 points..... These Boston Celts as "we had them Christmas day vs the Nets" are not the way to go late Thursday on TNT... Power Rated @ - 11 .. the 22-6 Clippers are SCARY good at home...  Jamal Crawford off the bench is a powerful force.... #'s are strong Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games & Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. The Clip show 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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L.A. CLIPPERS -8½ over BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Clippers are on a 14-game winning streak and their average margin of victory has been 15 points. No reason it can’t continue here. It’s not just Chris Paul and Blake Griffin either. The Clip Joint possesses the top bench in the league, averaging an eye-popping 42 points a game. They can play any style too, whether it’s a fast paced run and gun style, as was on display against Denver on Christmas or they can shut you down defensively. L.A. has held 13 of its last 15 opponents under 100 and five of those they held to under 80.
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The Celtics went into Brooklyn on Christmas day and whacked the free-falling Nets. They can do that to teams like Brooklyn, that plod up and down the court. Against this deep, talented, explosive and confident bunch they cannot. Once again the C’s age, lack of offense and it’s very ordinary defense will be exposed.
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DUKE +9½ -over CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke really stumbled down the stretch with four losses in a row but they had already clinched a Bowl birth and played Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami. That was as tough a quartet as any team in the nation had to face and it likely helped to prepare the Blue Devils for this much fairer fight. Duke QB Sean Renfree, now in his fourth year, was tutored by renowned QB coach David Cutcliffe, who went 4-1 in bowl games as head coach at Ole Miss. Renfree is the only QB in the FBS sporting three receivers with more than 60 catches.
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Cincinnati’s defense isn’t as good as advertised. They played very few quality passing teams this year and when they did play a couple they were exposed. Renfree will find open receivers all day. The Bearcats offense is expected to score some points and we can’t make an argument against that. However, Cinci’s Head Coach Butch Jones, both coordinators and two more assistants have all left for Tennessee, leaving this group too many disadvantages to overcome against an inspired, well-coached foe playing in front of a partisan crowd in North Carolina. Upset alert is on.
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San Jose State -7 over Bowling GreenFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Falcons of Bowling Green are the MAC’s conference fourth team to appear in a bowl game already this year and there’s more coming. However, unlike other bowl participants, the Falcons have played what might be the nation's weakest slate of opposing offenses. No Ball State, Northern Illinois or Toledo and they haven't seen a passing attack that's anywhere near as productive as San Jose State's.
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Spartans quarterback David Fales has thrown for 3,800 yards with a 31-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. SJSU also played a tougher schedule than Bowling Green and posted a 10-2 record. One has to wonder where the Falcons points are going to come from with such a predictable and unimaginative group. The Falcons' dreadful special teams unit is a serious liability as well, which should lead to some short fields for Fales to exploit. Lastly, Spartans Head Coach Mike MacIntyre is out the door, headed to Colorado. Interim Coach, Kent Bauer is on the short list of possible replacements and he figures to be extra prepped in what has to be considered his audition. The players love this guy and will respond accordingly. No units risked.
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Baylor +3 over UCLA
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Definitely not interested in spotting points with a Bruins team that has zero momentum heading into this one and that sports a coaching staff that can’t be trusted to make the right adjustments against this offensive juggernaut. The Bruins come in after back-to-back losses to Stanford to close out the year. Not only does that have to linger for a close to a month, but it also took away UCLA’S dreams of playing in the Rose Bowl. Playing in the Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl is not what the Bruins had in mind and one has to question just how motivated UCLA will be.
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Baylor closed out the season with three straight wins. First, they knocked off then #1 K-State, thus preventing the Wildcats from playing for the national championship. Subsequently, in a letdown spot against Texas Tech, they won in OT. As if that wasn’t enough, an encore followed with them beating #23 Oklahoma State in the final game of the year. The Bears finished the year by covering five straight, they bring much more momentum than the Bruins and they’re getting points. That works. No units risked.

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Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor Bears +3
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Baylor leads the nation in total offense with 578.8 yards per game. Breaking this down further, we find that the Bears average an impressive 7.0 yards per play. They also rank a more than respectable fifth in scoring with 44.1 yards per game.
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Baylor’s offense might be a little too much for UCLA to handle considering the Bruins are on a 2-10 against the spread slide in road/neutral field contests versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.25 yards or more per game. The Bruins have lost by an average score of 40.8 to 19.4 to these teams.
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Despite a poor defense, the Baylor offense has been good enough to win shootouts, even against good offensive teams. Consider that the Bears are 6-0 against the spread this season versus very good offensive teams that average 34.0 points or more per game. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 48.7 to 45.2.
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Baylor is at its best offensively where UCLA happens to be at its worst defensively. The Bears, who rank third in the nation in passing offense with 353.2 yards per game, should be able to take advantage of a UCLA defense that ranks 94th against the pass with 255.4 yards allowed per game.
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The Bears enter the postseason with a ton of confidence. They went 4-1 down the stretch and covered the number in each of these five contests. They finished the season with three straight impressive wins over Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
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Baylor is on an impressive 10-2 against the spread run versus good teams that carry a winning percentage of .600 to .750.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 27

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas Mavericks +10½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dallas Mavericks are showing some of their best value of the season as a 10.5-point road underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Dallas just recently got Dirk Nowitzki back from injury, and it is finally getting healthy as a team and back to full strength at the right time.
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The Mavericks have had three days' rest since their worst performance of the season. They lost 91-129 at San Antonio on Sunday, and there's no question that this team will be highly motivated to bounce back. They have played the Heat, Grizzlies and Spurs in succession, so they are certainly battle-tested. These three days off will do them a lot of good.
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Oklahoma City is in a huge letdown spot here. It played the defending champion Miami Heat in an NBA Finals rematch on Christmas Day, falling 97-103 on the road. The Thunder had a lot invested emotionally in that game as they wanted payback, but came up short. Now, I look for them to suffer a hangover effect tonight against a hungry Dallas team.
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The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Dallas is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following an ATS loss. The Thunder are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 27

Charlie Sports

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers

The (14-13) Boston Celtics of the NBA Eastern Conference Atlantic division will take on the (22-6) Los Angeles Clippers of the Western Conference Pacific division in 2012 NBA action. Boston has dropped 4 of their last 6 NBA Play's Against The Spread, but beat the Nets as a underdog on Christmas day. The Clippers are 6-1 ATS their last 7 vs. Boston. The Clippers are also 8-2 ATS their last 10 overall. Clippers get the home cover.

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