Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland Raiders +9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Raiders put an end to a six-game losing streak with an impressive 15-0 home victory over the Kansas City Chiefs last week. They put together their most complete win of the year by outgaining the Chiefs 385-119 for the game. That victory showed that they aren’t going to quit on the season.
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Oakland features one of the better offenses in the NFL. It ranks 12th in the league in total offense at 360.7 yards per game. It just recently got back Darren McFadden from injury, and he’s getting stronger with each game. McFadden rushed for 110 yards in that win over Kansas City.
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Carson Palmer is having a great season at quarterback. He’s a big reason why the Raiders rank 7th in the league in passing offense at 270.9 yards per game. Palmer should have his way with a Carolina defense that is allowing 271 passing yards per game and 67.6 percent completions at home.
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The Panthers are simply overvalued heading into this game due to winning their last two contests. They topped Atlanta 30-20 at home before going on the road and knocking off a San Diego team that has quit by a final of 31-7. Sure, those two wins were impressive, but with them come expectations from oddsmakers that Carolina cannot live up to.
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This play falls into a system that is 83-46 (64.3%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OAKLAND) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games. Bet the Raiders Sunday.

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Oakland Raiders at Carolina PanthersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Carolina PanthersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland really up against here they must travel and play early in the east coast time zone. Dont forget Raiders have been horrid on the road 1-5. Carolina on the upswing have won 3 of 4. QB Newton really rolling starting to roll now.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo Bills at Miami DolphinsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Buffalo BillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A pair of AFC East teams that are out of any playoff races. Buffalo has a fine offense, second in the NFL in rushing with 139.6 yards per game. These teams met last month and Buffalo won 19-14 holding Miami to 184 total yards and a 2-to-1 edge in yards rushing (120-60). The Dolphins are 9-30-1 ATS in their last 40 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play the Bills!

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Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Pittsburgh SteelersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It is do or die for the Steelers. Pittsburgh lost in overtime at Dallas last week which was its second straight loss as well as its fourth loss in five games. The Steelers dropped to 7-7 overall but they still control their own destiny. If they close the season at 2-0, they are in the playoffs and even if they go 1-1 they could still make it in however they cannot lose this game as they will be eliminated with a defeat. The division title is still a possibility but Pittsburgh needs help from Baltimore as well. The Bengals are currently in the sixth position and a win here and they clinch a playoff berth. A loss though would be a killer as they would have to defeat Baltimore next week as well as have Cleveland upset Pittsburgh. Winning here will not be easy though as Cincinnati has dropped five straight meetings against the Steelers including two blowout losses in Pittsburgh. The Bengals are playing well with a 5-1 record over their last six games but now the pressure really mounts. The Pittsburgh defense is ranked number one overall in the NFL, allowing just 273.3 ypg on the season. The Steelers allowed a season high 415 yards against the Cowboys last week after allowing fewer than 300 yards in eight straight games. That means it is bounceback time for that unit. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has not had success in his short career against Pittsburgh and he has a 72.0 rating with three touchdowns and three interceptions in December. Offensively, the Steelers need to commit to the running game which has not been very effective of late. The good news for the Steelers is they ran for more rushing yards than they have all season when they piled up 167 in a 24-17 victory at Cincinnati in the first meeting. The Bengals have improved their rushing defense but getting the run going early will be huge as Ben Roethlisberger will be able to set up play action and that is where he thrives the most even if he gets taken out of the pocket. The Steelers have not lost three straight games since 2009 and Roethlisberger has never lost three in a row. Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread and it falls into a great contrarian situation where we play against road teams after a win by 10 or more points going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 118-73 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

Harry Bondi

NY Giants / Baltimore Over

It was way back in September when we announced in one of our Handicapper's Notebooks that the Ravens defense was one of the most overrated units in the league and sure enough it has gone on to be just that. Heading into today's game, Baltimore and all of its big-names on defense are ranked 26th in the NFL in total defense and 31st in the league against the run. That's exactly the kind of defense Eli Manning can thrive on because a healthy running game will help set up the play-action deep pass. The problems on defense, coupled with that fact that the Ravens are averaging 31.6 points per game at home, have helped Baltimore go over in six out of seven games on this field this year. Look for much of the same today. Play the over.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. DenverFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I love the Peyton Manning comeback story as much as everyone else but I am still thinking the Broncos are slightly overrated here to favoured by so much over a team has had some success this year.
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The Browns come in with a 5-9 SU record and off a loss the Washington Redskins. I feel the Browns are a little underrated as they have quietly won three of the last four games.
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Cleveland has quietly been a profitable 7-5 ATS this year.  In the one game where the Browns were over 10 point underdogs, they have covered.  The Browns have been just about every game this year and are perhaps the best team that are under .500 for their season record.
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The Broncos are no doubt one of the best teams in the AFC this year, however I think the spread a little large here and the Browns are good enough to give Denver a run on their home turf.
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Look for rookie running back Trent Richardson to be a player for the Browns. Richardson has rushed for 11 touchdowns this year and 879 yards. Cleveland has a passing game that moves the ball in QB Brandon Wheedon and receivers Josh Gordon and Greg Little.
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Denver is 0-1 ATS when faced with the task of covering a spread of more than 10 points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. HoustonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota is 8-6 SU and 6-7-1 ATS; it's won two in a row including a 36-22 victory at St. Louis as a 1 point underdog last week. RB Adrian Peterson is having a career year, leading the league with 1,812 rushing yards on 289 carries. Last week he had 212 yards.
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Amazingly, Peterson can break Eric Dickerson's single season record of 2,105 yards with just another 294 over his next two games.
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His team holds the final NFC Wild-Card spot, and will be looking to hold on to it with another big effort.
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Note that the Vikings are 5-3 ATS as an underdog.
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Houston is 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS; it won 29-17 over Indianapolis as a 10.5 point favorite last week.
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The Texans, who own the fifth ranked run defense will face their stiffest test of the year.
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And Houston's prolific offense looked pretty mediocre last week; after it scored a TD in the first quarter, it would then tally just four field goals the rest of the way.
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It's interesting to note that the Texans are in fact just 1-2 ATS off a win vs. a division rival.
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Behind a steady dose of the run, I believe the Vikings can control this clock long enough, and keep this one close enough to sneak away with the ATS cover with the large spread they've been afforded in this one!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars    
Play: New England PatriotsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Road favorites of 10 or more off a straight up and spread loss are 15-0 straight up and 12-3 ats. The Patriots are 8-0 ats after allowing 28 or more. Chad Henne for the Jaguars has lost and failed to cover in 10 of his last 11 starts. This is a lot of points to lay on the road, which is why this is the free play and not unit rated, However, considering what the Patriots do on the road and the margins they have won by vs better teams this may be an easy win and cover against a Jacksonville team that cant score and may have thrown in the towel, or will if their down double digits come the second half. Rather have the Pats pouring it on as opposed to hoping the Jaguars can keep it close. Take the Patriots.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh SteelersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Cincinnati BengalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If you look at trends there is no way you can make this pick. The Bengals haven’t beaten the Steelers since 2009 and have not covered in any of those losses...including earlier this year. But, who has the better running game, who has the better defense including a fearsome rush, who has the momentum coming into this one. The answer to all of these questions is the Bengals. They are looking to punch their ticket for the playoffs with emphatic fashion and I think they will do it. Probably the best game of the daytime card.

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Red Dog SportsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas CowboysFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Dallas CowboysFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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All we need is for the Cowboys to win by about a field goal at home. Dallas is battling Washington and the NY Giants for the NFC East. They have a QB (Tony Romo) with plenty of experience and solid receivers like Witten, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin against a weak New Orleans defense that is out of playoff contention. The Saints do have Drew Brees at QB but they don't run the ball well and their defense has struggled all year. They lost coach Sean Peyton for the season and have had distractions like BountyGate. Take Dallas as small home favorites and let's hope that Romo doesn't make too many mistakes.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

Dave Cokin

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
Pick: Cleveland Browns

No one can accuse the Browns of tanking it even though they were long ago reduced to also-ran status. This team continues to play hard and they've been very competitive now for several weeks. An upset at Denver is likely too much to ask, but staying within the massive spread is a reasonable expectation. I'll grab the doubles with the Browns.

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Andy IskoeFOR  FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati +3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is one of the more meaningful games of the week as the loser is all but ousted from a shot at the Wild Card, especially if it's the Bengals who come up short as they seek to avenge an earlier loss to the Steelers. Pittsburgh will be in a foul mood after losing late at Dallas, their second straight loss. But whether that can translate into a win here is debatable as Cincy's lone loss in its last six games was by a single point to Dallas. The Bengals have played for more than a month, especially on defense. Getting more than a FG with a team playing as well as the Bengals are is very tempting, especially with their 5-2 SU road record which includes 3 outright wins as underdogs.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

Bob Balfe

Giants -2.5 over Ravens

This is the time of the year that the Giants always excel. Last week they were embarrassed by the Falcons and you can bet they will be focused considering this is like a playoff game for them. This team is flying under the radar again and if they can get into the playoffs they have just as good a shot as anybody. The problem with the Ravens is their defense just not being elite anymore. If you look at their linebackers they mostly are all no names due to injuries. Flacco should struggle against the Gmen front four. There is a reason why New York is the favorites on the road. Take the Giants.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

Charlie SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Vikings at Houston TexansFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Minnesota VikingsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The (8-6) Minnesota Vikings of the NFC North division will take on the (12-2) Houston Texans of the AFC South division in 2012 NFL action. The vikings are 2-0 Against The spread all time vs. Houston. Minnesota has covers their last 2 in a row ATS, but are only 1-4 ATS their last 5 NFL games on the road. The Texans are 3-2 ATS their last 5 at home and have clinched their division, while Minnesota chases a wild card spot. Minnesota gets the road cover.

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Steve MerrilFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Steelers also come in off an overtime loss at Dallas last week, and since they are laying a field goal, we see some good value in taking the hungry road underdog that is simply playing much better football right now.
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These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now.  Cincinnati has won five of their last six games while Pittsburgh has lost four of their last five games.  The Bengals have a poor history against the Steelers, but this game is their best opportunity to notch a win over their division rival.  Cincinnati lost the first meeting of the season 24-17, but the Steelers were much healthier for that game.  Pittsburgh has a slew of injuries on both sides of the ball which have severely hampered their on field play.  The Steelers also come in off an overtime loss at Dallas last week, and since they are laying a field goal, we see some good value in taking the hungry road underdog that is simply playing much better football right now.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
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The simulator shows a high probability that JAX will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Seems to be a reach, but the Patriots simply want to come into JAX and get a win and on several occasions over the years, they play a vastly more conservative scheme on both sides of the ball simply to minimize any mistakes that could give the inferior opponent any hope of winning the game. The Patriots are not likely to be seeded higher than third in the AFC. However, wins today and over Miami combined with Houston losses to Minnesota and the Colts would give them them the Top seed. Evidence of their conservative play is noted by the fact that the Patriots are just 8-19 ATS when playing against a terrible team posting a win percentage of <=25% or less with the game taking place in the second half of the season since 1992. JAX is coming off a 24-3 loss at Miami, but are a solid 12-3 ATS after scoring 6 points or less last game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-35 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1983. Play on home dogs or pick off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more with the game taking place in December. JAX has the worst run defense in the NFl and the Patriots will certainly be dedicated to giving Ridley a heavy dose of carries. Establishing the run will allow Brady more than ample time using play action to complete underneath routes and move the chains. For those fantasy players, I strongly believe Ridley could be one of the Top-3 point gainers today. This all seems like a positive sign for the Patriots, but with a scheme dedicated to the run, the clock will move quickly and the game shortened and this only gives JAX a chance to stay within two scores and continue to play hard. I like JAX to stay well within this number.

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Bobby ConnFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah Jazz vs. Orlando Magic    
Play: Orlando MagicFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orlando has been playing pretty solid lately even though they got sidetracked last time out with a 3 point loss up in Toronto, so I'm comfortable taking them as a home dog to the Utah Jazz.
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It's no secret that the Jazz do not travel well and coming off a loss in Miami last night isn't going to do them any favors.
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The Magic played Utah fairly tight in Utah a few weeks ago, coming back in the second half to cover the spread as 8-point dogs. I think they match up well with the Jazz and should pick up the win at home here today.

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Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay -12.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Don't be too impressed with the Titans win over the Jets, 14-10, they gained just 294 yards but profited from a +5 Net TO margin. That means its "win home/MNF and travel" for a non-Playoff team in late December. Advantage Green Bay who is looking for a first round bye. In last week's 21-13 victory over Chicago, they outgained the Bears 391-190 running the football for 32/113. This has all the makings of an NFL blowout against the Tennessee defense that allows 28 PPG. This victory garners them home field through the Playoffs.

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Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas -2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Just a better team at home under a fall number of 3.  I will lay it.  Cannot trust the Saints defense on the road, and they have a lot less to play for.  Dallas is finding ways to win, which is unusual because most of season they were finding ways to lose.  Dallas run game should work here and look for Romo to have a good day. Should be lots of offense on both sides, better defense at days end wins games like these.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 23

Scott Delaney

My free pick run is now at 57-35-2 after hitting Bradley yesterday. Tonight I am playing the Under in the New York Giants-Baltimore Ravens contest in a 4:25 p.m. kickoff. We have a pair of physical teams that have been questionable, in my humble opinion, on offense of late.

And if you ask me, I say these two are going to get after it in the trenches and look to hit hard and put a hat on some folks in this one, keeping this one low.

New York has dropped four of six to fall into tie atop NFC East. If it wants any chance of getting into the postseason, it better be prepared to match the physical play of the Ravens. Eli Manning has won eight of last 10 starts against AFC foes, including Super Bowl play. But I don't think he's as much of the answer as the defense is, knowing the Giants have to stop the opposition and put Manning in a position to score points.

The Ravens have lost three straight, matching their longest skid under coach John Harbaugh. It’s Baltimore’s worst slide since a nine-game streak under Brian Billick back in 2007. This dismal run includes two straight home defeats following a 15-game win streak at home. Time for this team to get back to the basics if it wants to win - and that's with its defense.

The Ravens can clinch their second straight AFC North title with a win today, and make note Baltimore has won its last nine home finales and comes in with a perfect 9-0 mark at home under Harbaugh against NFC foes. I'm not endorsing this team, cause I can't seem to figure out week-in and week-out what the Giants are doing.

But I do think we'll see the Ravens' trademark D.

There are a bevy stats and trends supporting the under, but I won't get into that. I'm just siding on this one staying low.

2♦ UNDER Giants/Ravens

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