TheSpread.com

Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Since the NFL won’t be in action on Thursday, gamblers can turn their attention to the Association and tonight’s three-game slate features two of the best teams in the league on the hardwood, Oklahoma City and Miami. The Thunder and Heat are both on the road and both laying points, which isn’t surprising at all. Some bettors might be weary to lay the points on the road, but NBA favorites have been cashing at a ridiculous rate this week.

The ‘chalk’ has gone 22-5 straight up and 18-9 against the spread in the last three days and that includes a 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS mark last night. It’s safe to say the underdogs are overdue but the betting public certainly won’t be looking at the home pups tonight.

Let’s take a closer look at the three matchups.

Oklahoma City (21-4 SU, 16-8 ATS) at Minnesota (12-11 SU, 13-10 ATS)

The Thunder visit Minnesota with a season-high 12-game winning streak after they beat Atlanta 100-92 on the road last night. TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Fatigue will certainly a factor but Oklahoma City has gone 5-0 (3-2 ATS) on zero days rest this season. Including the victory over the Hawks on Wednesday, OKC has gone 7-2 on the road with the two losses coming to quality opponents in San Antonio (84-86) and Boston (100-108).

Is Minnesota in the same class with the Spurs and Celtics? Despite dealing with key injuries this season, the Wolves are above .500 and more than half of their wins have come at home (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS). Since losing three in a row at the Target Center in mid-November, Minnesota has won four straight (3-1 ATS) at home but they were favored in those games against inferior clubs. Tonight, the Wolves opened as 3 ½-point home underdogs and the line is up to 4 ½ at most books. Minnesota will be looking to bounce back after getting swept in the Sunshine State to Orlando (93-102) and Miami (92-103) earlier this week.

Oklahoma City has owned this head-to-head series, winning 12 consecutive contests against Minnesota. What’s a little eye opening is that the Thunder are just 4-8 ATS in this span and that includes five straight non-covers heading into tonight’s game. What it tells you is that the Wolves have been competitive but they can’t seem to get over the hump and earn the quality win. After this contest, OKC will be off until its nationally televised showdown at Miami on Christmas Day, which could present a look-ahead spot for the visitor.

Miami (16-6 SU, 11-11 ATS) at Dallas (12-13 SU, 12-13 ATS)

Miami has certainly been caught napping at times this season but it still manages to chalk up wins. The Heat got a wake-up call two weeks ago when they lost consecutive games to the Wizards (101-105) and Knicks (92-112). Since then, the Heat have won and covered four of five games, the lone loss coming on a last-second bucket (95-97) to an improved Golden State team.

The Heat are laying five points on the road tonight and it should be noted that they’ve only played on the road once in their last 11 games, which was the aforementioned loss to Washington on Dec. 4.

Even though Dallas has a losing record, coach Rick Carlisle has done a good job considering All-Star Dirk Nowitzki hasn’t played a game. What’s a little surprising is how bad Carlisle’s team is defensively. They’re allowing 101.5 points per game, which has helped the ‘over’ go 15-10.

Similar to Minnesota, Dallas has been competitive but quality wins are lacking. Except for a 114-111 home win against New York on Nov. 21, it’s hard to pinpoint a great effort against a great team. The Mavericks have won three straight at home and they won an 8-3 record (6-5 ATS). As a home ‘dog, the Mavs are 1-1 both SU and ATS.

In last year’s lockout-shortened season, Miami swept the two regular season battles, which included a 105-94 victory last Christmas in Dallas.

Tonight’s total is hovering around 201 points and the Heat have watched the ‘under’ cash in four straight. That streak might come to an end here with the ‘over’ producing an 8-3 mark at home for Dallas.

Tip-off is set for 9:35 p.m. ET and TNT will complete its double-header coverage.

Denver (14-12 SU, 16-10 ATS) at Portland (11-12, 9-14 ATS)

Two teams from the Northwest Division meet tonight with three-game winning streaks on the line. Unfortunately for Portland, it’s going to be shorthanded for the battle. All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge (21 PPG, 8 RPG) sprained his ankle on Sunday and will be ‘out’ of action. Also, Wesley Matthews (15.5 PPG) tweaked his hip in the last game and he’s ‘questionable’ as well. Portland rookie point guard Damian Lillard (18.8 PPG, 6.3 APG) has been outstanding this season but the first-year player will have his hands full tonight against Denver.

The Nuggets have the best point-guard tandem in the league with Ty Lawson starting and Andre Miller coming off the bench. The duo has helped the Nuggets maintain a winning record despite playing an unbalanced schedule. Tonight’s road contest for the Nuggets will be their league-high 19th road game. So far, George Karl’s team has gone 7-11 SU and 10-8 ATS outside of Colorado, which isn’t great but certainly not horrible considering the lopsided slate. At home, Denver is 7-1 and certainly a team to watch in the final two-thirds of the season.

Portland has gone 6-1 at home after losing three of its first four games at the Rose Garden.

These teams haven’t met yet this season but the head-to-head series has been dominated by the home team, who has won the last 10 encounters between the pair.

Denver has been installed as a 5.5-point road favorite over the Trail Blazers.