Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Joe Gavazzi

UTEP +5

We have made a lot of money with 3rd year Oregon HC Altman in both his years at Creighton and Oregon. He has always been a great road coach yet mostly in the underdog role. Nevertheless, in his time with the Ducks he is 17-8 ATS away including outright at UNLV this year. Now, however, he is in a less favorable role as road chalk and he is playing at a bad site in a bad situation following 4 consecutive home games against inferior opposition. His propensity is to go uptempo. If you were with us for our UTEP winner against UNLV two nights ago, you will understand that philosophy is not going to work on this court against Tim Floyd. His Miners are still a year away and they were outmanned by the Runnin Rebels. But behind Floyd's clever defensive changes and strategy, UTEP had the final shot for the win. Floyd is outstanding in this role at 25-11 ATS home vs. non-con foes and an even better 12-1 ATS home following a home loss. It is another frustrating night for a visitor in the Haskins Center.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Iowa/ South Carolina State Under 147:  The Hawkeyes do play a fast paced uptempo game and it has helped them averaged 75.5 ppg overall and 77.9 ppg at home. They will be facing a weak Bulldog defense that has allowed 75.4 ppg overall and 76.2 so we know that Iowa will get their points. now not only are the Hawkeyes good on offense, but this team really knows how to "D" it up as well. Iowa comes in allowing 63.5 ppg on 38.8 % shooting overall, but at home they have allowed just 57.3 ppg on 36.1% shooting.  They do play some strong defense at home and those numbers shouldn't get much worse vs a Bulldog squad that has averaged just 55.2 ppg on 73.3% shooting on the road this year. Iowa home games have averaged 135.2 ppg, while Bulldog road games have averaged just 131.4 ppg. Another thing to look at here is the coming holiday. Iowa is a huge favorite and I expect them to call the dogs off in the 2nd half once they build a big lead as their minds may be elsewhere as Christmas approaches. I look for this one to be played in the 130's at best. 

3 UNIT PLAYS

Duke/ Cornell Over 143.5: Really see this one putting up 150+ points. The Cornell Big Red really likes to push the tempo and will get out and run with Duke. The Big Red haven't shot all that well this year and they have put up just 63.9 ppg, but they have averaged 70.8 ppg in their last 5 game and in this uptempo game they should be able to score at least 65 in this one. 65 points would be golden for us because i just don't see this Duke offense that has averaged 80 ppg on the year, being held below that number here. Duke has averaged 80.8 ppg at home and they shoot a solid 49.6% from the floor at Cameron Indoor. I expect the mid 60's from Cornell, while Duke puts up 85+ of their own.


Miami-Ohio/ Wright State Under 122: These teams meet every year and the last 8 meetings have all been low scoring, with the most points scored in any game being just 117 points. During that stretch of games the average points scored being just 106.3. That is 16 points below tonight's total. This year Miami has played some higher scoring games than normal for them, but it has been mostly due to their defense that has allowed 72.8 ppg overall and 78.3 ppg on the road.  Now Wright State may not be the team to take advantage of that weak defense as they average just 62.3 ppg and are one of the slowest paced team in the nation hoisting up just 49.3 spg (329th). On defense Wright State is one of the best in the nation, allowing just 55.5 ppg on 39.8% shooting and should be able to easily hold down a Miami squad that has averaged just 59.2 ppg on 38.4% shooting on the road. I don't expect either team to hit 60 points in this one. KEY TRENDS--- The Under is 17-4 in Wright State's last 21 vs the MAC, while the Under is 7-1 in Miami's last 8 vs the Horizon League.


SEATTLE -4.5 over Northern Illinois: (Added) These teams met once and it was in Febrary of 2011 and the Redhawks came away with a 12 point road win in that one. This year Seattle is not off to a great start, but I still feel they are far better that NIU. The Huskies are 0-5 on the road and have been outscored by 13 ppg in those games. They average just 58 ppg away from home and it will be very hard for them to keep pace offensively vs a Seattle squad that has averaged a healthy 76.8 ppg at home. Neither team is good defensively, but with a huge edges at the offensive end and the home Court I look for the Redhawks to win this one by at least 10.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Dave Price

Atlanta Hawks +6.5

The Thunder will be out to avenge last month's 9-point home loss to the Hawks, but I believe they'll have a tough time beating Atlanta on its home floor by more than 6 points. The Hawks have won 7 of their last 9 at home and only one of the defeats came by more than 6 points. Atlanta just played last night but had 2 full days of rest prior so fatigue shouldn't be an issue. Besides, the Hawks are on a 17-4 ATS run in the second game of a back-to-back and have won in these spots by an average of 6.7 points. Take the points.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Jeff Alexander

Milwaukee Bucks +9.5

The Grizzlies are getting a little too much respect here against a Milwaukee team that will be hungry to avenge last month's home loss. The road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Memphis. Bet the Bucks.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Jack Jones

Indiana Pacers -3

The Indiana Pacers are showing solid value as only a 3-point favorite over the Utah Jazz tonight. Off a 93-98 loss at Milwaukee last night, I look for the Pacers to bounce back with a victory in this one.

The Pacers had won three straight all by 10 points or more before that loss to the Bucks, who are a much better team than they get credit for. Indiana is 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.0 points/game.

Utah trailed Broolyn by 13 points at halftime last night. It put on a ferocious rally after intermission, coming all the way back to win 92-90. I look for the Jazz to be the more tired team tonight due to the nature of their comeback victory. Plus, Utah is just 5-10 SU & 5-9-1 ATS on the road this season, so it was a rare win away from home for the Jazz.

The Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Jimmy Boyd

Los Angeles Clippers -13.5

The Hornets will run into a buzz saw tonight. The Clippers have won 10 in a row and have covered the spread in six of their last seven, but they won't get caught looking past a New Orleans team that beat them in L.A. Nov. 26. The Clippers are an impressive 28-16 ATS when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent over the last two seasons.

L.A. will be the fresher team as it had yesterday off while the Hornets played and cover the number at Golden State. Consider that the Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.

The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, winning each of these by 18 points or more. It is also significant that they check in off a 12-point win as they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points.

The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the favorite is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Take the Clippers.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Timothy Black

Florida International  vs. Louisville    
Play: Florida International

Florida International hasn't had any problems scoring points, they just don't play much defense. I think playing a top team like Louisville, and matching Pitino vs. Pitino, will be enough motivation for FIU to keep this game reasonable. I also think it's fair to assume that the elder Pitino will call off the dogs fairly early in this one when the Cardinals do inevitably put the game out of reach.

While the Golden Panthers sit with a record under .500 they haven't been blown out by any means. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall against a team with a winning % above .600. Look for Louisville to come away with a 20 point win.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Kelso Sturgeon

Texas Arlington at Oklahoma State
Pick: Texas Arlington

Texas-Arlington is another of those teams that remains below the radar but plays excellent basketball. The Mavericks are 4-1 on the road this season and arrive in Stillwater with a 25-6 record in their last 31 games. On the road they have won at Cal-Santa Barbara, 62-60, at Samford, 65-58, at North Texas, 72-59, and at Texas-Pan American while losing at Texas, 70-54. The 24th ranked Cowboys certainly have all the edges but the style of play of both these teams almost insures a low-scoring game and that makes the 14 ½ a big number. UT-Arlington wins with defense, has limited opponents to shooting just 33.4% from the floor and has held six of seven opponents to less than 40.0%. Oklahoma State is limiting opponents to just 58.2 points per game and 35.3% from the floor. As noted, with defenses like this, the 14 ½ one gets with the Mavericks is a just too much to pass up.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Greg Daraban

Xavier at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati

Cincinnati 10-0 TV ESPN2 Battle of Cincinnati last year a brawl took place and the game will be at US bank Arena. Last season X won 76-53. Cincy returns favor to go 11-0 in this major hate game.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Scott Delaney

Now on a 54-34-2 freebie run, I'm going to lay the points with Cincinnati tonight against Xavier.

Ranked 11th in the nation, I think the Bearcats are going to end up being one of the most dang%k1%rous teams in the nation come March. I've seen this team play, had a chance to watch them in Vegas a couple weeks back. Very good team. Very cohesive team.

And there's a reason the Bearcats are 10-0 to start a season for the second time in three years and came into the week as one of only eight undefeated teams in the nation - cohesiveness.

Mick Cronin, who is in his seventh season at Cincinnati, has his boys playing well. He's confident and coaches his boys in a manner that makes them feel like winners. There is never a doubt with the Bearcats, and that stems from Cronin's ability to make them feel superior in every situation.

The 'Cats take the court after a 72-56 road win over Marshall on Saturday in Charleston, West Virginia, as Cashmere Wright led the Bearcats with 14 points and four three-pointers, while Sean Kilpatrick added 13 points and six rebounds. I'm a Kilpatrick fan, to be honest, and can tell you when pride is on the line in a big game, he can take over a game at free will.

Kilpatrick has scored in double figures in all 10 of Cincinnati's games this season and has poured in 20 or more points four times. I watched him score a career-high 32 points against Iowa State in the semifi%k2%nals of the Global Sports Classic in Las Vegas, back on Nov. 23.

I will say this right up front before Big East play begins, this is one of the top backcourts in the not just the league, but in the entire nation, Kilpatrick, Wright and JaQuon Parker. The trio accounts for 84.6 percent of UC’s three-pointers (66 of 78); 54.1 percent of its scoring (449 of 830 points); 48.6 percent of its steals (51 of 105) and 47.3 percent of its assists (78 of 165).

And with this being a revenge game from last season's 76-53 win by Xavier on Dec. 10, 2011, you best believe the Bearcats are going to do everyth%k3%ng possible to humiliate their unranked - and outmatched - rivals from the Queen City.

Lay the chalk with the Cincinnati Bearcats in this game.

3♦ CINCINNATI

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Chuck O'Brien

My free pick for tonight is going to be from a game involve crappy teams, but a game that has plenty of value. Between they've played 23 games and they only have five wins combined, with Samford sporting just two wins and Tennessee-Martin a mere three.

But I can tell you the home team in this game is the way to go, as I have UTM winning this one by at least a handful, as Samford has yet to win on  the road, and will likely struggle looking for rhythm tonight when it visits the Elam Center.

This is a good spot for the Seahawks to gain some momentum, as Samford has lost three straight and nine of 10. It comes into this one after enduring a 73-57 thumpi%k2%ng at the hands of Sam Houston State last Saturday. And make note, the only win over a Division I opponent came two weeks ago against Georgia Southern (57-48).

The biggest problem I can see is a sluggish offense that is producing a bleak 58.1 points per game, and a defense that is allowing opponents to score 69 ppg.

And I know UTM isn't doing anything remotely close to what might be considered superior to Samford's effort this season, but I also think the 'Hawks have better options offensively and will be able to feed off defensive intensity on their own court against the low-scoring Bulldogs.

Samford comes in on ATS losing streaks of 8-20 against losing teams, 2-5 on the road and against Ohio Valley teams and 0-4 in non-conference play. And make note, the favorite has covered four of the last five meet%k3%ngs. Lay the chalk with the Skyhawks in this one.

2♦ UT MARTIN

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Craig Davis

Free play winner on Oklahoma City on Monday.

Free play winner on Denver on Tuesday.

Wednesday's free play is the Atlanta Hawks.

I know I gave you the Thunder Monday night as a free play winner and they covered easily. But tonight I'm going against them as I believe the Hawks step up their game at home when good teams come to town.

They've beaten the Clippers and Spurs and Pacers and took the Heat right down to the wire at home. It's kinda like the Hawks are a team already sick of the regular season and ready for the playoffs... and it's December!!

Atlanta feeds off its defense. They force a ton of turnovers and rank among the league leaders, causing nearly 17 per game. Offensively, they do a lot of damage in the post where the Thunder are known to struggle.

If you polled 20 NBA experts and asked them one thing the Thunder needed help with... 19 people would say interior defense.

Don't get me wrong... the Hawks can still score from the perimeter with Louis Williams coming off the bench, PG Jeff Teague adding points and assists, and even sharp-shooter Kyle Korver averaging double digits in scoring.

I expect an exciting game that will come down to the wire, unlike the first time these two hooked up in OKC and Atlanta won going away... 104-93.

Take the Hawks as your free play of the day.

4♦ ATLANTA

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Jeff Benton

3 straight freebie winners after the Jazz win outright last night.

Freebie Winner #4 in a Row is the Bobcats plus the points at the Suns.

Phoenix has caught an updraft with three straight wins and covers, but that has served to inflate the price tonight against the desperate Bobcats.

Charlotte was up as many as 18-points last night in the third against the Lakers and still wound up on the short side for their 12th straight loss!

The twelve straight losses are the bad news, the good news is the Bobcats didn't quit last night - picked up the cover - and they have some positive numbers to back them in this game tonight.

Charlotte is 5-1 against the spread the last six series meetings with Phoenix, and the Bobcats are also 4-1-1 against the spread their last six stops in the Valley of the Sun.

Have to grab the generous spot tonight and look for Charlotte to put up a fight again tonight as they look to end their long losing skid.

Bobcats the call.

4♦ CHARLOTTE

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Chris Jordan

Now, as for my early free winner for tonight - I HAVE TWO TONIGHT - I like Duquesne minus the points at home against Mid-American Conference visitor Western Michigan.

Forget for a moment this is a mismatch of confer%k1%nces for a moment, and we'll get to the caliber of play both teams have engaged in this season, but make note this is the Dukes' final home game of 2012, as their next home game is Jan. 12 versus Saint Joseph's. And this is a team that is out to avenge one of the ugliest halves of basketball anyone has seen this season.

The Dukes had its modest two-game win streak snapped in a 91-69 thumping at Robert Morris this past Saturday. But they were in the game, trailing by a mere 31-30 at the half. Unfortunately, they were outscored 60-39 in the last 20 minutes of the game, after committing a season-high 25 turnovers which led to 31 points for the Colonials.

Now Duquesne has to atone for that. It also has a bit of revenge on the brain against the Western Michigan Broncos. Last year, forward Nate Hutcheson (24 points) and guard Brandon Pokley (16 points) both posted career highs in an 85-71 Broncos rout back in Kalamazoo. The Broncos drained 10 3-pointers and outrebo%k2%unded the Dukes 37-23 in the win.

Big difference a year makes, however. The Dukes, who ranked 337th out of 338 schools in rebounding margin last season (-7.5 rpg.), are outrebounding opponents by +6.1 margin. Even in their loss to Robert Morris on Saturday, Duquesne outrebounded the Colonials, 42-27. Duquesne has outrebounded eight of 11 opponents this season.

Now I think the Dukes are going to be more than ready for this home game. Duquesne is 5-1 at home and has been in Pittsburgh since Nov. 29. More than ready.

Duquesne is 5-0 when scoring 70 or more, and I think it's going to light up the scor%k3%board tonight, as it's roster has seen plenty of action this season. Ten players have seen action in each of the Dukes' first 11 games, and make note, their bench has outscored opponents' reserves, 303-209. That's huge in a game like this.

Lay the home chalk tonight, as Duquesne should have no trouble in extending its 5-1 ATS win streak against Mid-American Conference teams.

4♦ DUQUESNE


My second free pick is a simple 1♦ play, nothing major, but I'm laying the points with Wright State. The Raiders are hosting Miami-Ohio at the right time, as the RedHawks are concluding a four-game road stretch against its local rival, Wright State.

Not only do they catch a road weary RedHawks team, but it's also lost three straight overall two in a row in its series with the Raiders. Conversely, WSU is coming off a pair of wins and owns a 3-0 record on its home court this season.

It all adds up to a perfect shot at scoring a motivational win and improve to 8-3 on the year.

Miami is mired in ATS slides of 9-24 in non-conference play and 2-6 overall, while Wright State is on ATS win streaks of 4-1 against losing teams and 8-3 in non-conference action. And make note, the Raiders have covered five of the last seven meetings.

Lay the chalk here.

1♦ WRIGHT STATE

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 19

Matt Rivers

Free play winner on NC State last night.

72-58 free play run.

Wednesday's free play is the Hornets plus the double-digits at the Clippers.

Strong chance the Clippers who have won their last ten games increase the winning streak to eleven in a row, but the impost the Clips are being asked to cover tonight is rather significant.

Sure New Orleans has dropped eight in a row, but the Hornets were able to cover last night at Golden State, and they have now covered their last pair and three of their last four, all in the underdog role.

L.A.'s last lost as a matter of fact came at home to the very same Hornets they are playing tonight, and New Orleans is 9-2 against the spread their last eleven in this series in the City of Angels.

The Hornets have covered eight of the last ten meetings overall in games played against the Clippers, so take the points and look for this one to be just a little closer than the expected blowout the linemakers think it will be.

2♦ NEW ORLEANS

Blade
useravatar
Offline
198996 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
43376
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
267331
Average Posts Per Hour:
3.8
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3354
Newest User:
Robert Rae
Members Online:
0
Guests Online:
2128

Online: 
There are no members online

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com