NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
NFL Week 16 Opening Point Spreads and Line Moves
By: The Linemakers
Here’s a first look at the point spreads and early line moves for Week 16 of the NFL season.
Saturday, Dec. 22
Falcons (-3) at Lions
Atlanta shut out the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants, 34-0, on Sunday, while Detroit fell in Arizona, 38-10, for the Cardinals' first win since Week 4.
Sunday, Dec. 23
Titans at Packers (-10.5)
Green Bay, which won in Chicago, 21-13, took some early money here and was bet up to -11. Tennessee is eliminated from playoff contention and hosts the Jets on Monday night.
Raiders at Panthers (-8)
The Raiders shut out the Chiefs in Oakland, 15-0, but have to travel east for an early kickoff in Carolina next week. The Panthers won in a rout in San Diego and seem to have a little something going here late in the season, winning and covering three of their last four.
Bills at Dolphins (-4.5)
This one settled back at the opening number of 4.5 after bouncing around Sunday night. Miami was bet up to -5 immediately, but Bills money pushed the line down to -4 at one point. Miami held serve at home against the lowly Jaguars on Sunday, and the Bills were crushed by the Seahawks in Toronto.
Bengals at Steelers (-5)
There will be a lot on the line in this AFC North showdown. Cincy took early action, and the line was adjusted to -4.5. Cincy remained hot this week, winning in Philly Thursday night for their fifth victory in six games. The Steelers? Not so much — they lost in overtime in Dallas and have dropped four of five.
Patriots (-14) at Jaguars
New England will be laying double digits on the road next week, typically not an easy proposition in the NFL.
Colts (-7) at Chiefs
Indy lost and failed to cover as a 10-point dog in Houston, while the Chiefs looked as bad as ever, failing to get on the scoreboard in Oakland. Early action, nevertheless, was on K.C., and the line was bet down to Colts -6.
Saints at Cowboys (-3)
Dallas has won five of its last six, while the Saints snapped a three-game losing streak with a 41-0 win at home over the Bucs.
Redskins at Eagles (no line)
Just like this past week, it might be a while before we hear whether Robert Griffin III will play and there’s a line hung on this one. Washington, with Kirk Cousins under center, won outright in Cleveland as a 4-point dog. Philly lost in a comedy of errors Thursday night at home to the Bengals.
Rams at Bucs (-3)
Tampa Bay was a cover machine early this season but has lost four straight. St. Louis had its three-game winning streak halted with a loss at home to the Vikings.
Giants at Ravens (-2)
Both teams were big losers Sunday. The Giants took significant early money here, as the line was bet down to a pick ‘em Sunday night.
Vikings at Texans (-7.5)
Houston won and covered, laying 10 points at home vs. the Colts. Minnesota won handily at St. Louis. Early action was on the Vikes, and the line was adjusted downward to Texans -7.
Browns at Broncos (-10)
Heavy early dollars on Denver pushed this line all the way to -12.5. The Broncos were impressive in Baltimore, logging their ninth straight win. Cleveland, after winning three straight, lost at home to an RG3-less Redskins team.
Bears (-6) at Cardinals
Arizona easily put away the Lions and Sunday and took some early action for next week, when they’ll again be a home dog. Chicago continues its plunge, losing at home to Green Bay. The Bears have just one win in their last six games.
49ers at Seahawks (-1)
Huge game in the NFC West that’s been flexed into NBC’s prime time spot. These two teams played on a Thursday night in Week 8, a game gamblers will remember well. San Fran won, 13-6, but failed to cover when Jim Harbaugh declined a safety that would have put the Niners up by nine. They were a 7.5-point favorite.
Chargers at Jets (-3)
49ers-Seahawks was flexed in; Chargers-Jets was flexed out. San Diego dropped its fifth game out of its last six. The Jets are in Tennessee Monday night.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 16
Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 15's action.
Atlanta at Detroit (3.5, 50.5)
Atlanta can secure home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs with a triumph in the Motor City. The Falcons bounced back from a 10-point road loss to Carolina in a big way as they recorded a dominating 34-0 home win over the New York Giants last week. Atlanta ran more than it passed for just the second time this season, gaining 125 yards on 35 carries while attempting just 28 passes. Detroit is looking to snap its six-game losing streak. Things hit rock bottom for the Lions last Sunday, when they suffered a 38-10 loss in Arizona to the Cardinals. Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall.
Tennessee at Green Bay (-12.5, 46)
The Packers clinched the NFC North with last week's 21-13 win at Chicago and must win their final two games and get help in order to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC and the first-round bye. Wide receiver Jordy Nelson sat out again last week with a bad hamstring and is questionable Sunday. Tennessee is coming off a 14-10 victory over the New York Jets on Monday that ended a three-game losing streak. Since a Week 10 loss to Chicago, the Titans rank third in total defense (285.8 yards per game), and fourth giving up 17.6 points per game. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.
Oakland at Carolina (-9.5, 46)
The Panthers, who are just 2-5 at home, are attempting to end the campaign on a high note as they seek their third consecutive victory. Quarterback Cam Newton has been outstanding over the last four weeks. The Auburn product leads the league with a 113.1 passer rating in that span with nine touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Raiders snapped a six-game slide last Sunday with a 15-0 triumph over Kansas City in their home finale. Sunday's shutout against the Chiefs was the team's first blanking since 2002. Sebastian Janikowski provided all the offense, kicking a season-high five field goals. Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall.
Buffalo at Miami (-4, 41.5)
The Dolphins are still in playoff contention after last week’s 24-3 win over Jacksonville, but will need a ton of help in order to play January football. Running back Reggie Bush racked up 104 yards on the ground in the victory– his first 100-yard effort since Week 2. The Bills will finish with a losing record for an eighth consecutive season after last Sunday’s 50-17 rout by Seattle. Buffalo, which yielded a season-low 184 yards in a 19-14 win over the Dolphins on Nov. 15, has become the eighth NFL team - and first since the 1986 Jets - to allow 45 points four times in one season. Miami has won three of four at home over Buffalo and is 4-1 ATS in its last five December games.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-4, 43.5)
The Bengals will try to keep their division title hopes alive - while eliminating the host Steelers from the playoff race entirely. A Cincinnati win Sunday would clinch a playoff spot while knocking the Steelers out of contention. The Bengals, who are winners of five of six after thumping Philadelphia 34-13 on Dec. 13, are well rested but have lost their past five against Pittsburgh. Cincinnati is allowing just 12.5 points per game over its last six – the best in the NFL in that stretch - while forcing 15 turnovers. The Steelers have numerous injuries to their secondary and will be without cornerback Ike Taylor (ankle) for a third straight game. The Bengals are 0-7-2 ATS in their last nine versus AFC North foes.
New England at Jacksonville (14.5, 50)
New England rallied from a 31-3 deficit a week ago to tie San Francisco but ultimately suffered a 41-34 setback to snap its seven-game winning streak. However, the Patriots racked up 407 yards of offense in the second half against the stout defense of the 49ers. The offense could get an added boost if TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) suits up this week. The Jaguars have lost three straight, failing to cover in all three contests. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) is back practicing, but is a long shot to play Sunday.
Indianapolis at Kansas City (7, 41.5)
Indianapolis has won seven of nine but missed out on a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a 29-17 loss to the Texans last week. Quarterback Andrew Luck has completed only 46.1 percent of his passes in three games this month and has been intercepted nine times in his last five contests. The Chiefs gained a season-low 119 yards and recorded only seven first downs in a 15-0 loss at Oakland last week. Starting quarterback Brady Quinn is dealing with a rib injury but coach Romeo Crennel said Thursday he expects him to suit up against the Colts. Kansas City has recorded fewer than 10 points in four of its last five games. Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.
New Orleans at Dallas (-1, 51.5)
The Cowboys are still on the outside of the NFC playoff picture looking in, but their chances improved dramatically after topping Pittsburgh in overtime last Sunday for their fifth win in six games. Cornerback Morris Claiborne expects to play Sunday after missing last week's victory over Pittsburgh with a concussion. Running back DeMarco Murray is also probable despite missing practice on Wednesday. Dallas is 3-0 since Murray returned from a foot injury that shelved him for six contests. The Saints posted a 41-0 home triumph over the Bucs last Sunday. Despite the shutout, New Orleans' defense still ranks last in the league as it has allowed an average of 446.2 yards per contest. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Washington at Philadelphia (6, 45.5)
Washington is tied with Dallas and New York for the NFC East lead but owns the tiebreaker over both teams. Backup quarterback Kirk Cousins led the Redskins to their fifth straight win - a 38-21 victory over the Browns last week in the absence of Robert Griffin III. Griffin (knee) was a full participant at practice Thursday and is expected to start against the Eagles. Philadelphia fell 34-13 to Cincinnati in its last effort, committing a season-high five turnovers in the process. Running back LeSean McCoy (concussion) was carted off in the final minutes of a 31-6 loss to the Skins on Nov. 18, but is expected to suit up Sunday. The Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3, 44.5)
St. Louis saw its playoff chances all but snuffed out with last week's 36-22 home loss to Minnesota that snapped a three-game winning streak. The Rams, who had allowed only 42 points during its three-game winning streak, recorded a pair of sacks last week to add to their NFC-leading total of 41. Tampa Bay was once in the driver's seat for a playoff slot but has tumbled out of contention in the wake of a four-game losing streak, including a 41-0 mauling at New Orleans a week ago. The Bucs defense has been sturdy against the run but awful against the pass, ranking last in the league with 310.6 yards allowed per game. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
Minnesota at Houston (-9.5, 45)
Vikings running back Adrian Peterson trampled the Rams for 210 yards and a score in last week's 36-22 victory, a result that kept Minnesota's playoff hopes alive. The Vikings will be in tough against a Texans team that owns the AFC's top seed and is coming off a 29-17 win over Indianapolis. Peterson has amassed 1,313 rushing yards in the last eight weeks - equaling Arian Foster's output for the entire season. Peterson is in the midst of the most incredible stretch of games by any running back in the history of football. A year removed from major knee surgery, the 27-year-old is just 294 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season record of 2,105 set in 1985. The Texans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.
San Diego at N.Y. Jets (-1, 39)
New York's fleeting postseason hopes were dashed with another wretched offensive performance in Monday's 14-10 loss at Tennessee - a defeat that finally prompted coach Rex Ryan to pull the plug on Mark Sanchez and elevated third-stringer Greg McElroy to starting quarterback. San Diego flat-lined in a 31-7 home loss to Carolina and will miss the postseason for a third straight year. Adding to the misery were season-ending injuries to leading rusher Ryan Mathews (collarbone) and wide receiver Malcom Floyd (ankle). The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Cleveland at Denver (-13.5, 44.5)
Denver can move closer to earning a first-round bye in the playoffs by extending its winning streak to 10 with a victory over Cleveland, which has dropped nine straight meetings. The Broncos are coming off a 34-17 victory over the Ravens in a game that Peyton Manning threw for a season-low 204 yards. The Denver defense, which ranks fourth allowing 307.1 yards per game, held Baltimore to 56 rushing yards and scored on a pick-six. The Browns’ .217 all-time winning percentage against the Broncos is their lowest against any NFL team. But Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
Chicago at Arizona (5, 36.5)
The Bears' prolonged slump has left them likely needing victories in back-to-back road games with help in order to reach the playoffs. A 21-13 loss to Green Bay last Sunday dropped the Bears behind the competition in the race for the conference’s two wild-card spots. The defeat was also Chicago’s seventh in a row in the month of December. The Bears are averaging 14.2 points over their last six games after producing 29.5 per contest in their first eight. More pressure will be placed on running back Matt Forte this week after backup Michael Bush (ribs) was placed on injured reserve earlier this week. The Arizona defense leads the league with 22 interceptions, including snagging three picks in last week’s 38-10 win over Detroit. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five December games.
N.Y. Giants at Baltimore (1, 47)
Baltimore will try to avoid its first four-game slide in five seasons when they host the Giants. Running back Ray Rice was held to just 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Broncos and now faces a New York stop unit allowing 123.7 rushing yards per game. The Giants were shutout for the first time in seven years in Sunday’s loss to the Falcons, but could be getting some key starters back after running back Ahmad Bradshaw (knee), cornerback Prince Amukamara (hamstring) and safety Kenny Phillips (knee) all sat out against the Falcons. All three have returned to practice in some fashion this week. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six December games.
San Francisco at Seattle (Pick, 39)
San Francisco’s top-ranked scoring defense could be in for a major test Sunday night against the suddenly high-scoring Seattle offense. There’s plenty at stake as the Seahawks can clinch their second playoff berth in three seasons and the 49ers are one win shy of securing their second consecutive NFC West title. After setting a team record for points in a 58-0 win over Arizona on Dec. 9, the Seahawks became the first team in 62 years to score at least 50 points in consecutive weeks with their rout of Buffalo last week. San Francisco has won four straight in this divisional matchup following a 13-6 victory on Oct. 18, but Seattle is a perfect 6-0 at home this season. The Seahawks are also 5-0 ATS in their last five versus a team with a winning record.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
NFL Week 16
Titans (5-9) @ Packers (10-4) -- Tennessee won rare Monday night appearance, now heads to frozen tundra on short week with nothing to play for, vs a Packer squad thats won three in row, eight of last nine, covering five of last six, but they did trail four of last five games at halftime, which is problem if laying 13 points. Titans won last three series games; they've won four of five visits to Lambeau, with last visit in '04. Tennessee is 3-3 as a road dog, covering last three on road; their road losses are by 28-24-23-5-4 points. AFC South road underdogs are 6-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 6-10. Last five Green Bay games, four of last five Titan tilts stayed under the total.
Raiders (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9) -- Carolina showing signs of life, winning three of last four games after 2-8 start; they've run ball for 171.7 ypg last three weeks, as Newton's mobility has helped. Panthers are 1-4 vs spread as favorites; dogs are 10-4 vs spread in their games this year. Oakland snapped 6-game skid with a sloppy 15-0, TD-less win over rival Chiefs last week; they're 1-5 on road, with losses by 22-31-3-35-24 points. NFC South home favorites are 7-9 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West underdogs are 7-15-1, 4-9 on road. Teams split four series games; with visitor winning last two. Last four Oakland games stayed under total; three of last four Panther games went over.
Bills (5-9) @ Dolphins (6-8) -- Buffalo was +3 in turnovers, beat Miami 19-14 in Thursday night game five weeks ago, just its third win in last nine series games. Bills lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 9-28-27 points. Miami is 4-3 at home, 1-2 this year; since 2003, they're a ridiculously bad 9-33 vs spread as a home favorite (4-4 in last eight). Bills lost last three road games by 12-6-7; they're 2-4 as road underdog this year, and scored 13.8 ppg in four grass games. Dolphins lost five of last seven games, but they're last team to beat Seahawks. AFC East home teams are 3-6 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 if favored. Four of Miami's last five home games stayed under the total.
Bengals (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7) -- Do-or-die for Steeler team that lost three of last four games, with underdog winning all four and covering last seven Steeler games. Bengals won/covered five of last six games; they've won five of last six on road, are 2-1 as road dogs this year. Cincy has +10 turnover ratio in last eight games, after being -7 in first six. Pitt (-2.5) ran ball for 167 yards, won 24-17 at Cincy in Week 7; Steelers outgained Cincy 431-185 in what was Bengals' third loss in row at time. Pitt won 10 of last 12 series games, winning last five by average of 13 points. Cincy lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 14-17-16-28 points. AFC North home teams are 4-3 in divisional games, 2-2 at home.
Patriots (10-4) @ Jaguars (2-12)-- New England can get first-round bye if they win last two games and Denver loses once, so they'll keep pedal to floor here, in game after they got waxed by 49ers. NE is 4-1 as road favorite this year, winning on road by 21-24-30-7 points, with loss at Seattle (not counting London game, a big win over Rams). AFC South home dogs are 6-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East favorites are 11-9 vs spread, 4-3 on road. 11 of last 12 Patriot games went over total; three of last four Jaguar games stayed under. Jax is 0-6 in games that went over total (3-3 vs spread), losing by average of 16 points- they are 1-5 as home underdogs, losing home games by 20-17-38-17-17-7 points.
Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (2-12) -- Indy makes playoffs with win here, great story, but only one of its nine wins (27-10 at Jax) was by more than seven points, so laying lumber with them is iffy. Colts are 3-4 SU on road, covering only game as road fave. Chiefs gained total of 119 yards in ugly 15-0 loss at rival Raiders last week; they've lost 10 of last 11 games, scoring one TD on 22 drives in last two games, and that came on 80-yard run on first play two games ago. Indy won 10 of last 12 series games, five of last six here, but last visit here was in '04. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road; AFC West dogs are 7-15-1, 3-6-1 at home. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Chief games.
Saints (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6) -- Dallas is finding ways to win; they've won last three games and five of last six, scoring 22.3 ppg just in second half of those six games, but Cowboys are 1-6 vs spread when favored this year- since 2003, they are 8-36 vs spread as a home favorite. Saints lost three of last four games; they're 2-5 on road, 1-2 as road dog- they've won six of last seven series games, taking last three games played here, scoring 33 ppg. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-13 vs spread, 5-8 at home; NFC South underdogs are 10-6 vs spread, 10-3 on road. Five of Saints' seven road games, three of last four Dallas games went over the total. Underdogs covered last five Dallas games.
Redskins (8-6) @ Eagles (4-10) -- Washington outrushed Philly 169-80 in Week 11's 31-6 win, just their second win in last seven series games; they also averaged 11.6 ypa and were +3 in turnovers. Redskins are 4-3 in last seven visits here, and are on serious roll, winning/covering last five games after 3-6 start, and it hasn't mattered which rookie QB has played- they're 4-3 on road, scoring 38+ points in three of four wins. Eagles lost nine of last ten games, with only win coming on last playoff games; all four of their wins are by 1 or 2 points. Home teams are 2-7 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season, 1-2 if home dogs. Three of last four games for both teams went over total
Rams (6-7-1) @ Buccaneers (6-8) -- Tampa Bay got squashed 41-0 last week in Superdome; league trend this year has been for teams like that to bounce back in good form next week, but Bucs have now lost four games in row, giving up an average of 29.8 ppg. Rams laid egg at home vs Vikings last week, ending playoff hopes for this year; they've covered five of six true road games this season, going 2-0-1 SU in last three. Home teams won seven of last eight series games,with Bucs 5-1 in series since losing '99 NFC title game in St Louis- Rams lost last five visits here, by 10-3-12-1-21 points. Four of Bucs' last five games stayed under; six of Rams' last eight went over.
Giants (8-6) @ Ravens (9-5) -- Baltimore in freefall, losing last three games, while giving up 23-31-34 points; they should get lift from return of Ray Lewis- I'm not fond of teams who fire coordinators in December, especially when they replace guy with Jim Caldwell, who never called plays before. Ravens won three of last four games in seldom-played series. Giants lost four of last six games, including last three on road; they allowed average of 157 rushing yards over last three tilts. NFC East favorites are 6-13 vs spread, 1-5 on road; NFC North underdogs are 7-8, 3-3 at home. Five of last six Giant games stayed under total; last three Raven games went over. Next week's game is more critical for Baltimore.
Vikings (8-6) @ Texans (12-2) -- Houston clinches home field thru AFC tourney with win here; they're 5-2 as home favorites this year, winning at home by 20-6-24-30-12-12 points (lost to Packers). Minnesota is 2-5 on road; they had three return TDs in their two wins- they're 2-3 as road underdogs this year. Vikings ran ball for 240-171-213 yards last three games, as he chases Dickerson's single season record. Vikings won both series meetings, 28-21/34-28ot. NFC North road underdogs are 2-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South home favorites are 5-1. Three of last four Viking games stayed under; four of last six Houston home games went over the total.
Browns (5-9) @ Broncos (11-3) -- Denver is 5-0 against new Browns, winning three games played here by average score of 31-12; Patriots' loss last week opens door for Broncos to get #2 seed in AFC/first round bye. Denver won nine games in row (7-2 vs spread); they're 4-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 12-31-20-7-8 points. Cleveland had 3-game win streak snapped by Washington last week; they've covered four of last five games. Browns are 2-3 as underdogs on road this year, losing away games by 7-7-14-4-3 points. AFC West favorites are 7-6 vs spread, 4-4 at home; AFC North underdogs are 7-8, 4-5 on the road. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Cleveland games, 2-5 in Broncos' last seven.
Bears (8-6) @ Cardinals (5-9) -- Lot of retired people from Illinois retire to the Arizona desert, so Bears should have backing here, especially since Cardinals are 1-9 in last 10 games and in desperate need of a competent QB. Chicago lost five of last six games, scoring 17 or less points in all five losses. Bears are 3-3 away from home, with all three wins by 16+ points- they're 7-17 without Urlacher in lineup. Arizona is 3-1 as a home underdog; dogs are 10-4 in their games this year- they're 4-3 SU at home, with home losses by 3-21-14 points. NFC North faves are 10-14 vs spread, 4-4 on road; NFC West underdogs are 14-6 vs spread, 5-1 at home. Bears still can make the playoffs, but they better win this game.
Chargers (5-9) @ Jets (6-8) -- McElroy gets first NFL start for Jets after hideous Monday night loss in Tennessee; both teams here are a mess, so much so that the game was taken off Sunday Night Football, switched to 1:00 start. Chargers lost eight of last ten games after 3-1 start; they scored 13 or less points three of last four games. Jets are actually 3-2 in last five games, scoring 7-17-10 points in last three games- they have very little home field edge, they've been dysfunctional. AFC West underdogs are 7-15 vs spread, 4-9 on road. AFC East favorites are 11-9 vs spread, 7-6 at home. Three of last four San Diego games stayed under the total. Jets won five of last seven series games, lost three of last five played here.
49ers (10-3-1) @ Seahawks (9-5) -- No one is hotter than Seattle, scoring 58-50 points last two weeks; they're 6-0 SU at home, and were underdogs in three of six games, but they've lost last four games with 49ers, losing 13-6 (+7.5) back in Week 7 on a Thursday night at Candlestick. Niners lost two of last three visits here; they scored 13-3-13 points in their three losses this year. Seattle allowed 17-0-17 points in last three games. After being +28 in turnovers during 13-3 year in 2011, 49ers are just +8 this year. Underdogs are 6-2-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Four of last five 49er games, five of last six Seattle games went over the total. 49ers playing for division title, first round bye.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
ST. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers one of three teams shutout this past week try to right the ship when they host ST. Louis Rams. You would expect teams blanked to bounce back strong the following week as they place a more emphasis on performing well after the big 'ZERO'. Not always the case. Since 2008 teams that were shutout have gone 8-21 SU (27.5%) the following game scoring an average 18.0 points/game. Rather obvious these teams don't always storm back and Bucs aren't about to improve the mark. Our trusted data base tells us home teams are just 4-12 SU (25.0%), 5-11 ATS (31.2%) after being blanked scoring a lowly 16.8 points/game. If that were not enough to fade Bucs at -3.0 consider that home favorites in the situation are 1-6 against-the-number. Stick with Rams, they've not only cashed four straight on the road, they're 5-2 ATS off a loss, 4-2 ATS as a dog after scoring =>21 points, 9-4 ATS away vs a team with a losing home record.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
The New England Patriots (10-4, 8-6 ATS) and Jacksonville Jaguar (2-12, 6-8 ATS) game has all the markings of a blowout. Patriots are racking up a league best 36.1 points/game, the Jags a league second-worst 15.6 points/game. Add in Jaguars' putrid defense giving up 27.4 points on 394.1 total yards/game split between 246 passing, 148.1 rushing easy to see why 'Brady Bunch' have been tagged two touchdown favorite. Our data base tells us laying this many points on the road can be suicide as the past six occurrences roadies are just 2-4 ATS winning by an average 12.5 points/game. However, got to trust that Patriots will be out to make amends after losing for the first time at home in 21 December games. Look for Patriots to regrouped, lay a beating on lowly Jaguars and move the mark to 11-3 ATS on the road off a home loss as a favorite in the Brady/Belichick era, 16-5-1 ATS mark in Weeks 16 and 17.
Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers
Oakland Raiders snapping a six game losing streak with a 15-0 win over the Kansas City Chiefs this past week are primed for a crash landing. Oakland is not only on a 2-7 (3-6 ATS) road slide the Raiders head to Carolina sporting an 8-23 (9-22 ATS) road skid in December and have lost nine consecutive games in the Eastern Time Zone (2-7 ATS). Consider Panthers knowing they've got momentum from a two game win streak while entering on a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in their last home game of the season, 19-7 ATS last 26 games in December.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks (9-5, 10-4 ATS) making quick work of Buffalo up in Toronto spanking Bills 50-17 have now recorded a whopping 108 points the past two on the filed. The humming offense will surely be tested in this NFC West showdown with San Francisco (10-3, 9-5 ATS) and it's top notch scoring defense (15.6). Tested yes, but being 6-0 SU/ATS at CenturyLink Field can't count Pete Carroll's squad out. Keep in mind, the 49ers have yet to show they can win three in a row this season posting an 0-4 SU/ATS mark their previous four attempts. 49ers are also on a 4-10 ATS (6-8 SU) road skid vs the NFC West in December.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David
Week 15 Recap
For the second straight week, totals went 8-8. For the most part, these results were clear-cut. We had a few bad beats, in particular the Denver-Baltimore and San Francisco-New England games. Those two contests saw 35 and 55 points posted respectively in the second-half of their games. Another outcome that should be mentioned is the Colts-Texans matchup, which had 40 points on the board after three quarters. Unfortunately for ‘over’ players, only six points were posted in the final 15 minutes. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 105-103-1.
The smart money produced a 4-1 record last week and if it wasn’t for the result in last week’s SNF affair between the 49ers and Patriots, you would’ve seen a 5-0 mark. This week, we already have a couple games that have moved more than 3 points. Here are all of the line moves of 1½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday.
Tennessee at Green Bay: Line opened 47 and dropped to 44½
Buffalo at Miami: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41½
Indianapolis at Kansas City: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41½
New England at Jacksonville: Line opened at 49 and jumped to 50½
San Diego at N.Y. Jets: Line opened 41 and dropped to 37 1/2
San Francisco at Seattle: Line opened at 40½ and dropped to 38½
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ went 2-1 in last week’s games under the lights. On the season, the ‘under’ has gone 29-17 (63%) in the primetime games. This week, bettors only have two games to follow with the first one taking place on Saturday.
Atlanta at Detroit: It’s certainly hard to argue for the ‘under’ when you look at Detroit’s defense, which has given up an average of 32 points per game the last six weeks. Most would expect Atlanta to get close to that number considering its averaging 27.4 PPG on the road. The Falcons defense posted a shutout last week but the unit hasn’t shown that much consistency this season. Detroit has seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 at home this season.
San Francisco at Seattle: The 49ers beat the Seahawks 13-6 in their first meeting on Oct. 18 and the closing total of 37½ points was never threatened. Since that game, San Francisco (5-2) and Seattle (6-1) have both leaned to the ‘over.’ The 49ers are coming off a 41-point performance, while the Seahawks have scored 50-plus points in each of the last two weeks. Weather could be dicey in the Great Northwest, with rain expected for the primetime battle.
Betting the ‘over’ in the second meeting between divisional teams was a good look a few weeks ago but like any trend, it’s balancing out. The ‘over’ still holds a slight edge (15-12, 55%) but the ‘under’ has gone 10-5 (67%) in the last 15 rematches.
Buffalo at Miami: These teams met in a Thursday Night battle back in Week 10 and the Bills won 19-14 at home. In that game, Buffalo led 19-7 at the break and the only points (7) in the second-half came from Miami. The Bills have proven that they can light up the scoreboard, but they can also shoot blanks too. The Dolphins are limited offensively and this week’s total (41½) is much lower than the first meeting (45). Including the first encounter, the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between this pair.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The first go ‘round in Week 7 saw the Steelers capture a 24-17 victory, which was their fifth straight win and cover over the Bengals. During this run, the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 and that includes this year’s game in mid-October. Prior to last week’s ‘over’ against the Eagles, Cincinnati was on a 5-0 run to the ‘under.’ The Bengals’ defense has held their last six opponents to 20 or less while the Steelers’ unit has given up 20 or more points the last four weeks, which tells you how underrated Cincinnati is on that side of the ball. Or perhaps, it’s better to say Pittsburgh’s “D” is overrated? At Heinz Field, the Steelers have watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 and it could be 6-0 if it wasn’t for the second-half fireworks in Week 14 against San Diego.
Washington at Philadelphia: The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the last five in this series. Washington walloped Philadelphia 31-6 on Nov. 18 and the game stayed ‘under’ the closing number of 45, which is close to this week’s number (45½). RGIII is expected back for Washington and that should only help an offense that has put up 30-plus points in four of the last five weeks. After watching the ‘under’ go 5-0 in the first five weeks, the Eagles have swung the other way with a 6-3 mark to the ‘over’ the last nine games.
San Francisco at Seattle: (See Above)
After watching Seattle put up another 50-spot, I’m going to stay away from totals on the Seahawks for the rest of the season. With that the being said, they’ll probably get blanked against the 49ers this week. Even with the clear-cut loser in Seattle, we hit the ‘over’ ticket and drilled another teaser and managed to only lose a couple cents ($20) on the week. On the season, we’re up $840. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck and Merry Christmas to you and yours!
Best Over: Oakland-Carolina 46
Best Under: San Diego-N.Y. Jets 37½
Best Team Total: Under 20½ N.Y. Jets
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 36 Oakland-Carolina
Under 53 Cleveland-Denver
Under 46½ San Diego-N.Y. Jets
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
Week 16 Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The playoff races are tight in each conference with only two games remaining in the regular season. Past Atlanta, San Francisco, and Green Bay, the NFC has plenty of different scenarios of teams not only qualifying for a Wild Card spot, but the NFC East is still up for grabs. The Cowboys, Redskins, and Giants each own 8-6 records, but New York is finished with Dallas and Washington on the schedule. Meanwhile, Minnesota looks to close strong against Houston and Green Bay, two teams that have already wrapped up division titles.
Vikings at Texans (-8, 44½)
Minnesota has been the ultimate roller-coaster ride this season in the NFL. The Vikings began the campaign at 4-1, but lost five of the next seven games. Leslie Frazier's club has got back on track with consecutive victories over Chicago and St. Louis as short underdogs to improve to 8-6, while being part of a five-team logjam for one playoff spot in the NFC.
The Texans wrapped up their second straight AFC South title by beating the Colts last Sunday, 29-17 as 10½-point favorites. Houston moved to 12-2, as Gary Kubiak's squad can clinch home-field advantage in the AFC with a victory over Minnesota. In four games off a home win, the Texans have hit the 'under' three times, while twice holding opponents to nine points or less.
The Vikings picked up just their second road win in seven tries last Sunday in a blowout of the Rams. Minnesota has lost all three times this season after scoring at least 26 points in a victory, including double-digit losses at Washington and Chicago. In two meetings between these teams, the 'over' has hit each time, including a 28-21 home triumph by Minnesota in 2008.
Saints at Cowboys (-2½, 51½)
New Orleans couldn't overcome the disastrous offseason of "Bountygate," as the Saints will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The Cowboys are trying to avoid a December meltdown in the final two weeks, as Dallas saved its season with an overtime victory over Pittsburgh last Sunday.
Dallas controls its own destiny as far as the NFC East title goes as the Cowboys travel to Washington in the season finale. Jason Garrett's team closed as a one-point favorite in last week's 27-24 triumph over the Steelers, a third straight victory for the Cowboys. Dallas has cashed the 'over' in five of the last six home contests, as the potential for a shootout is possible again, taking on a New Orleans' defense that ranks 32nd in points allowed.
The Saints put together their most impressive win of the season last Sunday with a 41-0 rout of the Buccaneers as 3½-point 'chalk.' The victory snapped a three-game skid, but New Orleans enters the Lone Star State with a 2-4 ATS record as an underdog this season. It's been a difficult task to determine is the Saints will hit the 'over' on the road consistently as evidenced by 3-3 mark to the 'over' with a total above 50.
Bengals at Steelers (-3½, 41½)
We didn't want to disregard the AFC playoff race, which still has plenty of storylines. Cincinnati dug themselves back from the dead after starting 3-5 as the Bengals have won five of their last six games, including a Thursday night rout of the Eagles, 34-13 as 4½-point road favorites. Now, the Bengals are playing with revenge after losing in Week 7 at home to the Steelers.
Pittsburgh topped Cincinnati, 24-17 two months ago at Paul Brown Stadium in a Sunday night affair, as the Steelers held the Bengals to 185 yards of total offense. With all the injuries the Steelers have suffered this season, former Georgia Tech standout Jonathan Dwyer stepped in to rush for 122 yards that night, while Chris Rainey scored the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh has won each of the last five meetings, including a 3-0 record against Andy Dalton.
The Bengals are getting the job done on the defensive side, allowing 13 points or less in five of the previous six games, while cashing the 'under' five times in this stretch. Cincinnati has been one of the better road clubs in the league this season by compiling a 5-2 SU/ATS ledger, but both losses came to division opponents at Baltimore and Cleveland.
Giants (-2½, 47) at Ravens
New York knows the drill - just get in the playoffs. The Giants have alternated wins and losses in each of their last five games, including a 34-0 drubbing last Sunday at the hands of the Falcons. Tom Coughlin's club has lost three straight road contests, while scoring just 29 points in those defeats. The task won't be easy this week, but the Ravens need a victory to secure the AFC North crown.
Baltimore has stumbled recently with three consecutive losses, while getting blasted at home by AFC West champ Denver, 31-17 last Sunday. In John Harbaugh's tenure as head coach, the Ravens have never lost four straight games, as Baltimore has been in this situation two previous times since 2008. The Ravens have seen tremendous success at home against NFC opponents, winning 12 straight games dating back to 2006.
The Giants own a 2-4 ATS record the last six weeks, while putting together a 2-5 ATS mark since 2006 as a road favorite against AFC competition. The 'under' is profiting for New York recently, hitting in seven of the last nine games, even though this is the lowest total for the Giants since falling at Cincinnati in Week 10.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
Saints at Cowboys: What Bettors Need to Know
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 51.5)
The Dallas Cowboys still are on the outside of the NFC playoff picture looking in, but their chances improved dramatically after topping Pittsburgh in overtime last Sunday for their fifth win in six games. Dallas goes for its fourth consecutive victory this Sunday when it hosts the enigmatic New Orleans Saints. The Cowboys trail Washington in the NFC East despite sharing the same record but can capture the division title by winning their remaining two games, with the finale being a showdown with the Redskins in the nation's capital.
New Orleans' roller-coaster season has it needing a miracle to reach the playoffs for the fourth straight season. The Saints rebounded from an 0-4 start to even their record after 10 contests, but they lost their next three games before posting a 41-0 home triumph over Tampa Bay last Sunday. Despite the shutout, New Orleans' defense still ranks last in the league as it has allowed an average of 446.2 yards per contest.
LINE: The Cowboys opened as high as -3 and have been bet down to as low as -1 at some books. The total opened at 52 points and has been bet down to 51.5.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (6-8, 7-7 ATS): Quarterback Drew Brees leads the NFL with 36 touchdown passes and 4,335 passing yards. He needs 665 yards to reach the 5,000-mark for the third time in his career. Brees threw for 307 yards and four TDs against Tampa Bay, giving him an NFL-record 17 games with at least 300 yards and four scoring strikes. Darren Sproles has been a major contributor out of the backfield since 2011 as he leads all NFL running backs with 146 catches and 13 receiving touchdowns in that span.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-6, 6-8 ATS): Cornerback Morris Claiborne expects to play Sunday after missing last week's victory over Pittsburgh with a concussion. Running back DeMarco Murray also expects to face the Saints despite missing practice on Wednesday. Dallas is 3-0 since Murray returned from a foot injury that shelved him for six contests. Quarterback Tony Romo has thrown 12 touchdown passes and only three interceptions over the last six games. Linebackers DeMarcus Ware (11.5) and Anthony Spencer (10) are the first pair of Cowboys to reach double digits in sacks in the same season since 2007.
* Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Saints are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 16.
* Cowboys are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games in December.
1. Cowboys WR Dez Bryant has caught a touchdown pass in each of his last six games.
2. The road team has won each of the last four meetings, while the Saints have captured six of the last seven overall.
3. Dallas TE Jason Witten is six receptions shy of breaking the single-season record for a tight end of 102 set in 2004 by Tony Gonzalez.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
Giants at Ravens: What Bettors Need to Know
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 47)
After enjoying a view from the penthouse of their respective divisions for most of the season, both the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens are hearing company knock at the door. The Ravens will look to snap a three-game skid and clinch their second straight AFC North title on Sunday when they host the Giants. Although Baltimore owns a one-game lead over Cincinnati and has already secured a postseason position, it sure didn't look like a playoff team following a 34-17 setback to Denver last week.
While the Ravens' performance left a lot to be desired, the Giants' was downright pitiful in a 34-0 loss to Atlanta. New York's fourth setback in six games - coupled with victories by Washington and Dallas - allowed for a three-team logjam to rear its ugly head atop the NFC East. Making matters worse for Tom Coughlin's club is that it no longer controls its own destiny for the division title.
LINE: This game opened as low as a pick and action on the Giants moved the line to as high as -3. The total moved from 47.5 to 47.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the high 30s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 6 mph.
ABOUT THE GIANTS (8-6, 6-7-1 ATS): New York can seize a postseason spot by winning its final two games - that much is simple. An NFC East title will require a little help, as the Redskins and Cowboys will each need to lose a game as well. Health concerns are on the forefront for the Giants, who hope to see the return of Ahmad Bradshaw (knee/foot), although Coughlin has already said that is a medical decision. A porous defense also plagues New York, which is ranked 28th overall and against the pass.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (9-5, 5-8-1 ATS): Although Pittsburgh's misstep versus Dallas last week allowed Baltimore entry into the postseason party, one can understand that the Ravens may not feel like dancing at the moment. Joe Flacco has committed six turnovers (three interceptions, three fumbles) during the team's losing skid - and didn't fare too well versus the Giants on Nov. 16, 2008. Flacco, who was then a rookie, threw for just 164 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in New York's 30-10 victory.
* Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Giants are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games.
* Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in December.
* Over is 4-0 in Ravens' last four home games.
1. Giants WR Victor Cruz honored 6-year-old Jack Pinto by visiting his family on Tuesday. Pinto was one of 20 children killed in the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn.
2. With John Harbaugh at the helm, the Ravens are an impressive 9-0 at home against NFC teams.
3. Baltimore has won two of the three regular-season meetings between the clubs - although most remember its 34-7 trouncing of New York in Super Bowl XXXV.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
Sunday Night Football: 49ers at Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Pick, 39)
The San Francisco 49ers can wrap up the NFC West Division title on Sunday but they'll have to end an impressive home streak for the second time in as many weeks to accomplish it. The 49ers will look to pull off an impressive cross-country daily double when they visit the Seattle Seahawks, who still have hopes of overtaking San Francisco for the division crown. The 49ers ended New England's 21-game December home winning streak with a 41-31 victory last week and now have to take on a Seahawks team that is 6-0 at CenturyLink Field. Seattle has won three straight overall and five of six, and another victory Sunday would pull them within a half-game of San Francisco for the division lead.
LINE: Seattle opened as a 1.5-point underdog at some books but has since been bet up to a pick. The total opened at 40.5 and has been bet down as low as 38.5.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 48 percent chance of showers with temperatures in the high 30s. Winds are expected to blow south at 5 mph.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (10-3-1, 9-5 ATS): Colin Kaepernick improved to 4-1 as a starter by throwing a career-high four touchdown passes as San Francisco secured a playoff berth against the Patriots. The Niners bolted to a 31-3 lead but had to stave off a stirring comeback after the Patriots reeled off 28 consecutive points to tie the game. Kaepernick responded by throwing his second TD pass to Michael Crabtree, who had seven catches for 107 yards and has 23 receptions over the past three games. San Francisco allowed 520 yards to the Patriots but forced four turnovers and recorded three sacks. The 49ers won a defensive duel with Seattle in Week 7, limiting the Seahawks to 251 yards and getting a season-high 131 yards from Frank Gore in a 13-6 victory.
ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (9-5, 10-4 ATS): Seattle's offense has erupted in the past two weeks, following a 58-0 beating of Arizona with a 50-17 thrashing of Buffalo to become the first team in 62 years to score 50 points in consecutive weeks. Rookie Russell Wilson was brilliant against the Bills, throwing for 205 yards and a TD and rushing for 92 yards and three scores. Wilson was shut down by the 49ers in the first meeting, throwing for a season-low 122 yards, but he has thrown 11 touchdowns against one interception in his last six games. Running back Marshawn Lynch has gone over 100 yards despite limited duty in each of the past two weeks to give him eight 100-yard games this season, including 103 yards against the Niners.
* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Seattle.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* 49ers are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.
* Seahawks are 40-19-2 ATS in their last 61 home games.
1. San Francisco has won four straight meetings against the Seahawks, including a 19-17 victory at Seattle on Christmas Eve last season.
2. The 49ers and Seahawks rank 1-2 in the league in fewest points allowed at 15.6 apiece.
3. Gore has the two highest single-game rushing totals in franchise history (212 and 207 yards). Both have come against Seattle.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
We have a few teams in must-win situations this week, but bettors are only believing in one of them -- the New York Giants. And why not? No team has been better with their backs against the wall than the Giants in recent years. They almost seem to play better in elimination-type games.
Last season, the Giants' playoffs started in Week 16 and they not only won the NFC East with a 9-7 record by winning their final two regular season games, but they also went on to win the four playoff games ending up with another Super Bowl win over the Patriots.
Even though the Giants have lost four of their last six games, bettors still bet them from a two-point underdog to a 2 ½-point favorite at Baltimore. A lot of that can be attributed to the Ravens recent meltdowns, but there seems to be an overwhelming confidence with bettors that Eli Manning and the Giants will come out on top.
While the Giants have lost four of their past six games, it's the two blowout wins over the Packers and Saints over that span that still resonates with most of us, showing that this team isn't dead.
As for the Ravens, it was only two home games ago when we were talking about them as having the best home-field advantage in football, having won 15 straight at home. That was until a Steelers squad took them down without Big Ben and then the Broncos cleaned their clock.
You could say the Ravens are fortunate to even be in the position they're in at 9-7, and could have easily been coming in on a five game losing streak at 7-7. They barely beat Byron Leftwich at Pittsburgh, 13-10, and then the following week it took a fourth-and-29 miracle at San Diego to keep them alive.
Despite some of the Las Vegas sports books getting burned by the Giants last season at odds of 25-to-1 and higher to win the Super Bowl at this juncture, they're 25-to-1 again right now.
On the other side of things we have the Dallas Cowboys, who opened as a 2½-point home favorite against the Saints. Despite winning four of their last five and being competitive in virtually every game this season, no one has faith in them the same way they do for the Giants. In fact, money has been coming in on the Saints and the Cowboys are now -2½ (EV).
The same goes for the Steelers, even though they are in a much different situation as far as current form goes. They have lost four of their last five games. They opened as five-point home favorites against the Bengals and Cincy money has pushed the number to -3½.
We used to kind of have the same feeling about the Steelers and Roethlisberger as we do for the Giants and Manning, but the Steelers look out of synch. They throw the ball too much, can;t run when they try and have too many turnovers.
Regardless of how we feel about the Steelers, the move is more about the Bengals. They have won five of their last six games and have the look on both sides of the ball that could give any one of the top AFC teams in the playoffs some problems. Bengals are playoff ready, the Steelers are not.
Here's a look at some of the other moves over the week at Las Vegas sports books:
The Packers went from 10½-point home favorites over the Titans to -12. The total in this game dropped from 47 to 44½.
The Dolphins went from 4½-point home favorites over the Bills to -5.
The Patriots went from 14-point home favorites against the Jaguars to -14.5. The total went from 48½ to 50½, not surprising considering the Pats have gone OVER the total in 11 of their past 12 games.
The Colts opened as seven-point road favorites at Kansas City and Chiefs money has bet the number down to -6½.
The Redskins opened at -4½ at Philadelphia with expectations that Robert Griffin III would play -- and he is, but when the official announcement came out, the line moved to -6 ½, which appears to be a little excessive considering Griffin isn't 100 %.
The Broncos opened as 10-point home favorites against the Browns and the number has been bet up to -13.
The Bears are sliding fast, but still opened as a 6-point favorite at Arizona. Cardinals money has dropped the number to 5½. Whenever I think of the Bears playing in Arizona, former Cards coach Dennis Green's classic tirade a few years ago after losing a tough game always come to mind. They are who we thought they were and we let them off the hook.?
The Jets have a new quarterback starting this week, and it's not Tim Tebow, but another former SEC star QB, Greg McElroy. The Jets dropped from -3 to -1½ for their home game against the Chargers after the announcement, but have been bet back up to -2 ½.
The Seahawks have gone from 1-point home favorites against the 49ers to pick-em. The Seahawks have won and covered every one of their home games this season against some pretty good competition like the Packers, Patriots and Cowboys. Both teams have been playing extremely well offensively, which makes the total in this game set at 39 appear quite low.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 16
NFL Week 16 Over / Under Preview And Review
By Victor King 12/21/2012
Last week's OU review
Broken record: Oddsmakers got EXACTLY what they wanted last week in terms of Totals. Half of the games went OVER the Total (8) and half of ‘em went UNDER (8). The week started with another ‘pretty-easy-to-forecast’ Thursday night NON-DIVISION (key) game between Cincinnati and Philadelphia that went OVER the Total (Speedee’s Tipsheet Best Bet). But we won’t lie to you. When Lady Luck frowns on us, we certanly bitch and moan... and we have a right to. But when she has a hand in one of our wins, it’s important to raise our glass (of tequila) in tribute to her. And when you look at the game statistically, the OVER probably should not have won. Both teams had less than 250 total yards of offense. It was only becuase of a 4-minute stretch in the 3rd and 4th quarters in which Cincy scored 24 points that did the trick... thanks to multiple Eagle turnovers ( 5 of ‘em).
The Sunday EARLY-kickoff games followed the pattern of the last few weeks in which there were more UNDERS (5) than OVERS (3). And that included a couple of surprising OVERS in which the OU line was on the ‘short’ side (Stl / Min OVER... Clev / Wash OVER). Of the games in which the OU line was on the high side (47 or more), the results were 1-3 O/U. Moving on to the LATE-afternoon starts, the results also mirrored the patterns of the last few weeks in which there have been more OVERS (3) than UNDERS (2). And we closed out the week with a Sunday night OVER (Pats / Niners) and a Monday night UNDER (Jets / Titans). For the season, the numbers now stand at 110 OVERS... 111 UNDERS... and 4 ties. As of Tuesday afternoon, the average OU line for this week’s games is 44.4 points...
Game 15 OU tendencies
Our preliminary query into the Playbook database in regards to Game 15’s reveals a LOT of OVER possibilities. So let’s run through some of the first situations that the database spit out...
10-0-1 O/U s’05: All GAME 15 non-division favorites playing off BB UNDERS in a row. This week’s potential HIGH-scoring candidates are the TAMPA BAY BUCS... CHICAGO BEARS... and NEW YORK JETS.
7-0 O/U s’05: All GAME 15 < .500 home favorites (MIAMI and TAMPA BAY) versus a < .500 opponent (BUFFALO and ST LOUIS) when the OU line is 45 < pts. It appears that these teams (who have been ELIMINATED from the Playoff race) don’t hold anything back this week.
9-1 O/U s’05: All GAME 15 AFC non-division home favs with an OU line of 40 > pts (NY JETS and DENVER) versus a conference opponent (SAN DIEGO and CLEVELAND)
15-2 O/U s’05: All GAME 15 non-division home favs of < 8 points when the OU Line is in he range of 37 > pts and 45 < points. This potential HIGH-scoring situation applies to the NY JETS, TAMPA BAY BUCS, and HOUSTON TEXANS.
This season's LOW-scoring home and road teams
Since we have more UNDER Best Bets than OVER Best Bets this week, we’ll look at the flip side of things. In last week’s issue, we followed the HIGHEST-scoring home and road teams. This week... here are the season’s lowest scoring (in overall points and OU record) teams.
LEAST points at HOME this year: Chicago 35.9 ppg (3-5 O/U)... Pittsburgh 36.0 (1-5 O/U)... Jacksonville 38.1 (2-5 O/U)... San Francisco 38.4 (4-3 O/U)... Arizona 39.0 (3-4 O/U)... Cleveland 39.0 (3-5 O/U)... Miami 39.0 (3-4 O/U)... San Diego 40.1 (3-4 O/U)... St Louis 41.1 (4-3 O/U)... Seattle 41.7 (3-3 O/U)... Atlanta 41.8 (1-6 O/U)... Indianapolis 42.1 (2-5 O/U)... Minnesota 43.4 (3-4 O/U)... Green Bay 44.4 (3-4 O/U).
LEAST points on the ROAD this year: Arizona 36.4 (2-5 O/U)... Baltimore 38.2 (2-4-1 O/U)... Miami 38.6 (2-4-1 O/U)... NY Giants 38.9 (1-6 O/U)... Kansas City 39.4 (3-4 O/U)... NY Jets 39.6 (3-4 O/U)... Seattle 39.9 (4-4 O/U)... St Louis 40.7 (4-3 O/U)... Philadelphia 41.3 (1-6 O/U)... Atlanta 42.4 (4-3 O/U)... Dallas 42.9 (2-5 O/U)... San Francisco 43.3 (3-4 O/U)... Houston 44.0 (3-3 O/U).
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