Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 12

Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 12

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Atlanta at Orlando
The Hawks look to take advantage of an Orlando team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog. Atlanta is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawks favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4)

Game 701-702: Brooklyn at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 117.058; Toronto 110.904
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 703-704: Atlanta at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.796; Orlando 114.832
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 187
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Over

Game 705-706: Cleveland at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 110.176; Indiana 121.786
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 11 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 8; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-8); Under

Game 707-708: Chicago at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 120.288; Philadelphia 117.981
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 180 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Over

Game 709-710: LA Clippers at Charlotte (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 123.645; Charlotte 112.806
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 11; 205
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8 1/2; 201
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-8 1/2); Over

Game 711-712: Golden State at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 116.947; Miami 129.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 12 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 8 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: Denver at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 117.678; Minnesota 122.109
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 198
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1 1/2); Under

Game 715-716: Sacramento at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 112.618; Milwaukee 120.317
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 7 1/2; 201
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 717-718: New Orleans at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.098; Oklahoma City 126.781
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 11 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 14; 196
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+14); Over

Game 719-720: Dallas at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 117.912; Boston 123.125
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 5; 184
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 721-722: Washington at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 113.881; Houston 120.386
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 6 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 723-724: Memphis at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 121.777; Phoenix 115.393
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 6 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 725-726: San Antonio at Utah (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 128.319; Utah 121.306
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 202
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Under


NCAAB

DePaul at Arizona State
The Sun Devils look to take advantage of a DePaul team that is coming off an 84-50 win over WI-Milwaukee and is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games after allowing 60 points or less in the previous game. Arizona State is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun Devils favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-5)

Game 727-728: Towson at Temple (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 47.478; Temple 67.881
Dunkel Line: Temple by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Temple by 18
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-18)

Game 729-730: DePaul at Arizona State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 55.394; Arizona State 61.869
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-5)

Game 731-732: WI-Green Bay at Wisconsin (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 51.896; Wisconsin 73.177
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 18
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-18)

Game 733-734: Colorado at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 61.841; Fresno State 55.401
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-3 1/2)

Game 735-736: WI-Milwaukee at Fairfield (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 45.002; Fairfield 54.869
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 10
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+11 1/2)

Game 737-738: Oregon State at Portland State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 63.313; Portland State 50.597
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-11 1/2)

Game 741-742: Savannah State at Ohio State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Savannah State 55.871; Ohio State 76.368
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Savannah State (+22 1/2)

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Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM

Colorado vs. Fresno StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: ColoradoFOR TFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Buffaloes were downright embarrassed against Kansas on the weekend, a bit of a shock given they should be pretty familiar with what it is like in Allen Fieldhouse. As a result we can get some better value on Colorado on a much easier road trip to Fresno State to play the Bulldogs. Sure this team has struggled on the road losing to the Jayhawks and Wyoming but they also beat talented Murray State and Baylor squad. Against KU leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie found himself in foul trouble early and was a non factor scoring 4 points. His rebound performance should lead to an early victory. Buffs are 16-5 ATS coming off a loss.

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Rob VincelettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Philadelphia 76ersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Sixers catch the Bulls with no rest off a tough game with the Clippers last night. That sets up a nice NBA System here that plays on home favorites with 1 day of rest that are favored by less than 5 points and scored 100 or more as a home favorite of 5 or more in their last game, vs an opponent like the Bulls that were a home dog in their last game. This system has cashed 8 of the last 9 times it has applied. The Sixers come in off a nice win and cover on Monday vs the Detroit Pistons and should be very tough in this spot vs a Chicago team that has no rest. Look for the Sixers to get the win and cover.

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Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah JazzFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Utah JazzFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio owns the best record in the NBA at 18-4 and it is currently riding a five-game winning streak heading into tonight. The Spurs have been getting it done both at home and on the road and their 11-2 road record is the best in the NBA. They haven't exactly played the best of competition however as 10 of those 11 wins have come against teams that all possess a losing record with the lone road win against a winning team being against Boston back in mid-November. The Spurs offense has been lights out during the first half of this roadtrip as they have averaged 133.0 ppg on 51.6 percent shooting from behind the arc. Things could change tonight though as Utah has won three-straight games which is tied for a season high and while the opposition has been average at best, it has pushed the Jazz back over .500 after sustaining a three-game losing streak just prior to this. Utah still possesses one of the best home courts in the NBA as it is 8-1 on the season with the lone loss coming against the Clippers by just one point nine days ago. The Jazz are outscoring opponents by over 10 ppg on its home floor and it will be out for revenge following the playoff sweep from last season and the opening season series loss in San Antonio back at the start of November. The Jazz are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record and they covered in their only game as a home underdog so far this season. Meanwhile, the Spurs are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game and this has been a very home dominated series with the host going 23-9-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings.

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Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio vs. UtahFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UtahFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Spurs are an outstanding 11-2 on the road. However, with an 8-1 record here at Salt Lake City, the Jazz have an even better winning percentage at home. I feel that they're providing us with some value here.
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You may recall that the Spurs knocked the Jazz out of the playoffs last season. The Jazz already played them tough at San Antonio last month, losing by six. This is the first meeting of the season here at Utah though.
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The Jazz, who are 11-8 ATS the last 19 series meetings here, come in well rested and playing well. They've won three straight, covering each of the last two. I expect them to be highly motivated tonight. Consider taking the points.

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas vs. BostonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Celtics will host Dallas on Wednesday, and Boston will be looking for it's fourth consecutive victory at the Garden. The Mavericks, still without Dirk Nowitzki, have struggled on the road this season, with a record of 4-7 away from home. The Celtics have been very strong defensively in recent games, limiting opponents to just 40% shooting over their last six contests.
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Boston is coming off a 92-79 victory over the 76ers, limiting Philadelphia to just 39% shooting on Saturday.
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"Our defense is why we won," coach Doc Rivers said. "I thought the first half, going zone, man and back and forth is good for us. And again when you play defense like that, you usually win games."
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Defense has been the story when these teams have met in recent seasons, with eight of the last 10 head to head meetings going under the total.
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Shawn Marion has been out of action for Dallas, missing the last two games with a groin injury. He is unlikely to dress for Wednesday's game.
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Boston has been a good bet as a favorite lately, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games when favored by 5-10 points
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I like Boston to keep that streak alive at home on Wednesday.
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Take the Celtics to cover.

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Chris ElliottFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta vs. OrlandoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: AtlantaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hawks have been road warriors this season with victories at Oklahoma City and Memphis on the resume. They had a tough 101-92 loss at Miami last time out after winning 9 of 10 games. Orlando has lost 3 straight home games by a combined -13.0 PPG. The Hawks have owned the Magic with a record of 11-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 matchups, nothing should change here.
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The Hawks had won 9 of 10 games before dropping a 101-92 defeat at Miami (14-5) on Monday night. They are now 12-6 on the season overall and 5-3 on the road including victories at OKC (17-4) and at Memphis (14-4). The team has been solid offensively, scoring 96.9 PPG led by big men Josh Smith and Al Horford who are averaging 16.5 and 16.4 PPG respectively. The team has depth up and down the lineup with 5 players scoring more than 10 PPG and 10 players scoring more than 5 PPG. The defense has been great giving up 94.0 PPG to rank 6th in the NBA. Overall the team is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of +2.9 PPG.
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The Magic have struggled out of the gate to a record of 8-12 overall and 4-5 at home after losing 3 straight at home to Boston, San Antonio and Brooklyn by a combined -13.0 PPG. As a team the offense has been dismal 28th overall scoring 92.2 PPG on .442% shooting while their defense has helped keep them in most games, ranking 10th overall allowing 95.6 PPG. Overall the team is being outscored by a margin of -3.4 PPG.
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Atlanta has owned Orlando in this matchup recently, winning 11 of the last 13 games SU and ATS including 2 straight wins at the Amway Center by a combined margin of 15 PPG.The Hawks are at the top of their game right now while the Magic are looking to avoid losing 4 in a row at home for the first time in 5 years. The the Atlanta Hawks to win ATS.

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Timothy Black
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SAVANNAH STATE vs. OHIO STATE    
PLAY: SAVANNAH STATE
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Savannah State hasn't played a game with a posted total all year but they have played a lot of low scoring games. They have played solid defense all year long, holding Florida to just 58 points a couple weeks ago. They won't score much but it will be a low scoring game and they won't get blown out of the gym even though Ohio State is a far superior team.

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Chicago BullsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This line will be shaded because the Bulls played Tuesday night, while the 76ers enjoyed an evening off. I see value at this price with what looks to be the more talented dog, so Chicago will be tonight's free opinion.

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors
Pick: Toronto RaptorsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto hasn't played many home games, but they are competitive there (3-4). Toronto is rested but Brooklyn is in the second of a back to back spot after a showdown with the Knicks last night, and the Nets are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on no days rest. Play the Raptors.

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David Banks

Boston Celtics -6

The Dallas Mavericks (11-10, 10-11 ATS) are finally over .500 and starting to gain some consistency as they look to make it four straight wins Wednesday night when they face the Boston Celtics (11-9, 8-10-2 ATS) at TD Garden in Boston, MA on ESPN at 8:05 ET. The Mavericks could just now be figuring out how to run their offense without injured superstar Dirk Nowitzki, while the Celtics should be well rested for this game, not having played since Saturday.

Nowitzki has yet to make his seasonal debut following arthroscopic knee surgery and he has only resumed taking set shots for the time being, targeting a return right around New Year's Day. Dallas was very erratic without him early on, especially breaking in a ton of new personnel, but it has now won three straight games while shooting a nice even 50.0 percent (128-for-256) over those three victories, two of which came on the road at Phoenix and at Houston. This hot spell has the Mavs up to 10th in the NBA in scoring (100.1), an identical 10th in field goal percentage (45.2) and sixth in three-point percentage (38.6), all improvements from where they were at earlier on. Dallas is paced by four newcomers in a lot of key categories, as O.J. Mayo leads them in scoring, Darren Collison leads in assists and steals, Chris Kaman leads in rebounds and field goal percentage and Elton Brand leads in blocked shots. Thus, Dallas management deserves kudos for all of the off-season moves and this will be a very dangerous team once Dirk does get back.

The Celtics may be two games over .500, but this is a team that has looked more "old" than "experienced" at times this year. Boston is the worst rebounding team in the NBA with only 38.3 boards per game, and a team that has won with stingy defense in recent years has not been nearly as aggressive on that end of the court, thus falling to the middle of the pack at 12th in scoring defense (96.6), 15th in field goal percentage allowed (44.4) and 12th in three-point defense (35.1). The three days off could help, but a peaking Dallas offense should still be a difficult matchup for the aging Boston defense. Perhaps the Celtics can give more extended minutes to sixth man Jeff Green, as he has frankly outperformed the starting Boston forwards recently while averaging 16.0 points on an outstanding 54.0 percent shooting over the last five games, and at 6-foot-9, Green has stepped out to nail eight three-pointers during this time while also providing good defense.

Thus far this NBA season, Western Conference teams have gone 77-54 straight up and 73-56-2, 56.6 percent ATS vs. the East in non-conference affairs like this one heading into play on Tuesday evening. The road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these clubs and the Mavericks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games vs. Atlantic Division teams. Conversely, the Celtics are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 vs. the Southwest Division.

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Jack Jones

Philadelphia 76ers -2.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing great value at home tonight as only a 2.5-point favorite over the Chicago Bulls. This is simply a great situation to back the 76ers as they will be the fresher team heading into this one.

Chicago will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days. That's an extremely tough stretch for any team, and there's no question these Bulls' players have to be tired right now. Philly comes in on one days' rest, and this will be just its 5th game in 11 days.

Home-court advantage has proven to be huge in this series between the Bulls and 76ers. The home team has won five straight meetings. Philadelphia has won three straight and five of six at home over Chicago.

The Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Philly is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 when its opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

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Steve Janus

Philadelphia 76ers

A lot of people are going to look to fade Chicago on a back-to-back set, but that's not why you should take Philadelphia in this matchup. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when their starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The reason my money is on the 76ers is due to the fact that they will be out for revenge against a team they are very familiar with (met in the playoffs). The Bulls defeated the 76ers 93-88 just 11 days ago in Chicago in a game that was close from start to finish.

This time around the Bulls will be without starting shooting guard Richard Hamilton, who had 15 points in that first meeting.

The other key here is that the 76ers are coming off a 104-97 home win over the Pistons. Philadelphia is an impressive 32-18 ATS in home games after playing a home game over the last 3 seasons. Chicago is also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning record.

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WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago at PhiladelphiaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Under 181.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago Bulls have been a defensive-oriented team while awaiting return of Derrick Rose. They have held their own mostly due to their commitment on the defensive end of the court. That effort has held opponents to under 90 points per game in their last 10. Philadelphia is no stranger to getting after it on the defensive end with 11 of their last 14 opponents held under the century mark. They know that vs. the Bulls they have to match their defensive intensity, and are certainly equipped to do so. The Bulls have been money to the UNDER at 24-8 in their last 32, while the Sixers enter play at 19-9 to the UNDER in their last 28 following an ATS win. Only one way to go here - play the UNDER.

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Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn at TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn (11-9) lost their fifth straight game against their cross-town rival Knicks last night by a 100-97 score last night. The Nets did cover the 3.5-point spread yesterday -- and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Under is also 5-1-1 in Brooklyn's last 7 games played without a day of rest. Furthermore, the Nets go on the road for this one -- and the Under is a decisive 20-5-1 in their last 26 fames on the road. Toronto (4-18) has also lost their last five games in a row after their 92-74 loss at Portland on Monday -- and the Under is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games after a double-digit loss. The Raptors have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home. And in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record, Toronto has played 13 of these games Under the Total. Take the Under in this one.

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Freddy Wills

Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat 

This is the 5th road game in 8 days for the Warriors and they have won all of them and scored over 100 points in each, but now it's time for them to come down to earth. The Heat have no look aheads and seem to be focused right now especially defensively. The Warriors beat bad teams with a combined record of 28-54 and now the public is liking them too to the tune of 60+% and I still see this line climbing. Heat on 1 day of rest will blow them out.

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Teddy Covers

Memphis vs. Phoenix
Pick: Memphis

The Suns have lost seven straight games.  At 6-15-1 ATS, they rank dead last in the NBA in profitability; overvalued from Day 1 by the betting markets.  Veteran wing Jared Dudley: "We just have to find our identity."

Suns head coach Alvin Gentry: "We play good for two minutes then we're bad for seven, then we're good for five and we're bad for three. ... You just can't win any basketball games in this league when you play that way."

This pointspread stat is very telling.  The Suns are 2-10 ATS facing an opponent that is coming off a loss, like the Grizzlies are tonight.  What does that mean?  Simple -- when the opposing team is focused, the Suns can't hang, struggling to compete.  Against a team like Memphis that enjoys a major matchup edge in the low post, those problems become magnified.

Memphis was flat and tired after a grueling scheduling stretch when they lost at home by double digits to Atlanta last weekend.  They've had three full days off; a chance to rest, recuperate and re-focus.  And the Grizzlies have won five of their seven previous road games by seven points or more.  The only two road games they didn't win by margin?  At the Clippers and at the Spurs; two teams that are one heck of alot better than the Suns this year.  Take Memphis.

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Larry Ness

New Orleans vs. Oklahoma City
Pick: Oklahoma City

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 17-4, just a half-game back of the Spurs for the NBA’s best record. The dynamic duo of Durant (27.0-8.5-4.3) and Westbrook (21.5-4.8-8.5) is now joined off the bench by Martin, who has seamlessly stepped into Harden’s role, averaging 15.8 PPG on 47.1 percent shooting (47.9 percent on threes). No team can get up and down the floor any better, as the Thunder lead the NBA in scoring at 106.0 PPG, on 49.1 percent shooting (2nd), 41.8 percent on threes (2nd) plus own the league’s best free throw percentage (83.1). OKC owns the league’s longest active winning streak at eight in a row, averaging 111.4 PPG since their last defeat. What’s more, the Thunder have topped 100 points in 12 straight games, also averaging 111.4 PPG in that stretch and at home this season, are 11-2 while averaging 108.5 PPG. The Thunder have been controlling the flow of all their games as of late and just why would the Hornets be able to do anything to stop that here? Anthony Davis did return to the court last night, playing 25 minutes off the bench while scoring 13 points with eight rebounds, after missing 11 straight games. He’s the real deal when he plays (15.6-8.3) and he’ll see more time tonight. The Hornets were pathetic last night, losing at home to the Wizards, 77-70 while shooting 32.5% (4-16 on threes). Note that the Hornets are allowing 103.9 PPG on the road, certainly bad news when facing OKC. The Thunder are winning by an average of 16.3 PPG during their eight-game streak (three wins by 21 or more points) and have defeated the Hornets six straight times, including wins by 15 (110-95) and 21 points (100-79) this season. Nothing changes here with margin of victory.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 12

King Creole

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS plus the pts vs Indiana Pacers

DENVER NUGGETS plus the pts vs Minnesota Timberwolves

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES minus the pts vs Phoenix Suns / #723 / 9:05pm ET

RIDING a couple of UNRESTED road teams tonight? You betcha! We'll grab the points with two road doggies who just won last night (in Cleveland and Denver). They'll be taking on respective division opponents in Indiana and Minnesota. And we will be playing on a situation that's hit at a 89% percentage this season.

NBA division road underdogs (CAVS / NUGGETS) have goNE 13-3 ATS so far this season when playing with NO REST. And these teams have gone 8-1 ATS if they won their game that was played the previous night. In Cleveland's case, they shocked the LA Lakers last night, winning by 6 points as 6-point home doggies. And in Denver's case, they won on the road last night, beating the putrid Detroit Pistons 101 to 94.

We also queried Cleveland's non-conference shocker over the Lakers.
Since the 2004 season, NBA underdogs of > 3 and < 11 points (CAVS) have gone 12-2 ATS playing off a SU non-conference home win of 6 > pts in a game in which they were a DOG of +6 > pts.

CLEVELAND has gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS in the last 3 seasons as road dogs with NO REST off playing off a SU underdogs win. Meanwhile, the PACERS (on a 2-game losing streak) are 3-12 ATS as home vs UNRESTED opponents... including 0-6 ATS if that opponent is off a SU win.

In the Minnesota / Denver game, the T'Wolves SEEM to have a definite REST advantage of FOUR days to NONE (for Denver). But according to the database, the advantage is for the unrested team.
2-13 ATS since 2005: All DIVISION home teams (T'Wolves) playing with FOUR days of rest. These teams have gone 1-7 ATS as favs of < 7 pts when playing an UNRESTED opponent (DENVER).

So far this season, WEDNESDAY division home favorites (Min / Indy) have gone 1-7 ATS...

The NUGGETS are already 5-1 ATS this season on the road with no rest. Also 7-0 ATS in the last 3 years as short dogs of 5 < pts on the road with NO rest. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are 10-26 ATS in the last 3 years at home vs any UNRESTED opponent... including 1-11 ZATS in the last two years as favs of -2 > pts.

In the late game, the GRIZZ look to continue their dominance of the Suns... with SU wins of 10 and 11 points in the last two games of this series. After their most recent shocking home loss to Atlanta, Memphis is looking for a whippin' boy... and they get it tonight.

So the road fav is off a SU loss while the home dog is off a TON of losses in a row (Phoenix is 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7).
16-5 ATS since 2005: All Western Conference road favs of > 4 pts (GRIZZ) vs any fellow Conference opponent off 3 or more SU losses in a row (Phoe). In the last 2 seasons, these teams are 7-1 ATS when favored by MORE than 5 pts (GRIZZ).

Let's extend that 'losing streak query'...
NBA home teams playing off 7 > SU losses in a row (Phoe) have gone 10-24 ATS in the last 4 seasons vs fellow conference opponents... including 2-11 ATS when playing with 2 or less day rest (Phoe).

The Grizzlies play this one with 3 days of rest while the host Suns off 2 days of rest.
Already this season, NBA road teams with 3+ days rest (GRIZZ) are a PERFECT 5-0 ATs vs any opponent odd 2 days of rest (Phoe).

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 12

Andre Gomes

Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

Projected Line: Minnesota by 7 points

Denver is coming from a win at Detroit yesterday, where they started the game terribly and so, they were quickly down by 17 points. Fortunately for the Nuggets, Detroit was on a bad spot and with a poor bench, Denver was able to turn around the game. Detroit showed once again that they struggled in defending the opposing guards, so Ty Lawson had 9-17 FG and 7 assists. With that, the Nuggets had good numbers on pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and cuts. Andre Iguodala and Danilo Gallinari struggled on their outside shooting, but Corey Brewer compensated that with 6-11 FG and 3-5 3pts. Detroit won the boards battle and Brandon Knight had a nice game, but Greg Monroe struggled badly with 1-9 FG and 5 turnovers. Detroit struggled in attacking Denver's bad transition defense, a sign of lack of energy and with a lot of turnovers and with Greg Monroe struggling, they had no chances.

For today, the Nuggets have a very tough spot that normally results in no-shows: three games in four days, with this game being also a back to back, with all three games being played on the road. This is also a final game of a road trip and they will face the Grizzlies at home next Friday. Denver has been rebounding terribly on this road trip and the truth is that they grabbed just 44.31%, 49.13%, 44.52% and 42.05% of the rebounds on their last four games.

On the other hand, Minnesota had three days of rest for this contest, so they have an excellent spot for today. On the previous game between these two teams, Denver won with a comeback win on the 2nd half, on the first game that Kevin Love played this season. He crushed Denver on the first half, but then had no legs to repeat the same feat on the second half. Minnesota with Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Love and Andrei Kirilenko should be able to take advantage of Denver's rebounding problems, besides the fact that the Wolves have a great rim defense and they will be able to limit Denver's offense that likes to attack the rim and with them struggling at the rim and being forced to try jump shots on a poor spot, this won't go well for them tonight.

Minnesota is also #3 on transition defense, therefore the Wolves have the spot and the matchup to have an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

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