College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, Dec. 22

College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, Dec. 22

E CAROLINA (8 - 4) vs. LA LAFAYETTE (8 - 4)

Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


WASHINGTON (7 - 5) vs. BOISE ST (10 - 2)

Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 67-96 ATS (-38.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 63-32 ATS (+27.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 74-44 ATS (+25.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-67 ATS (+34.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-67 ATS (+34.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 87-57 ATS (+24.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 69-36 ATS (+29.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


EAST CAROLINA vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
East Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of East Carolina's last 5 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 6 games

WASHINGTON vs. BOISE STATE
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Boise State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games


East Carolina vs. Louisiana Lafayette
East Carolina: 11-3 ATS away playing on artificial turf
LA Lafayette: 10-2 Over off BB conference games

Washington vs. Boise State
Washington: 16-30 ATS off a conference road loss
Boise State: 6-0 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents


East Carolina
6-14 ATS last 20 non-conference games.
1-8 ATS last 9 following a SU win.
7-1 ATS last 8 on turf.
6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
6-14 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games.

UL Lafayette
8-2 ATS last 10 non-conference games.
14-4 ATS last 18 on turf.
6-13-2 ATS last 21 vs. CUSA.

Washington
15-6-1 ATS last 22 on fieldturf.
1-5-2 ATS last 8 vs.  MWC.
4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Boise State
4-0 ATS last 4 bowl games.
6-0 ATS last 6 neutral site games.
6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs. Pac-12.
5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Pac-12.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, Dec. 22

New Orleans Bowl Preview
By Matt Fargo
Playbook.com

East Carolina Pirates vs. UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-6/64)


How East Carolina Got Here


After starting the season 3-3, the Pirates closed strong by winning five of their last six games to post their best record since 2009, the last year under head coach Skip Holtz. East Carolina finished in a tie with UCF in the C-USA East Division but lost the tiebreaker after losing to the Knights 40-20. It should be noted that those seven conference wins all came against teams not playing in a bowl game and its only non-conference win came against Appalachian St. of the FCS. The Pirates lost its other three non-conference games by a combined score of 131-44 and those three opponents are all in a bowl game as well.

How UL-Lafayette Got Here
UL-Lafayette finished in a tie for second place in the Sun Belt Conference with a 6-2 record with one of those losses coming against conference champion Arkansas St. by 23 points. Its only win against a team with a winning conference record was a victory at rival UL-Monroe. In non-conference action, the Cajuns got thumped at Oklahoma St. but lost by just a touchdown at Florida on a blocked punt return for a score with only 13 seconds remaining. Similar to the Pirates, they closed the season with three straight wins to make their second straight appearance in the New Orleans Bowl. UL-Lafayette won last year over San Diego St. 32-30 on a 50-yard field goal as time expired.

Interesting Stat

Both passing defenses have issues as East Carolina is 105th in the nation (271.7 ypg) while UL-Lafayette is 111th in the country (283.9 ypg).

Breakdown

This could very well turn into a shootout as both defenses are vulnerable against the pass. Against average quarterbacks, they could get away with it but that isn't the case here. East Carolina quarterback Shane Carden finished 33rd in the nation in passing efficiency while Cajuns quarterback Terrence Broadway finished 22nd in the country in passing efficiency and both were second in that category in their respective conferences. Both offenses can put up plenty of points as the Cajuns were consistent all season while the Pirates hit their stride late, averaging 42 ppg over their last six games after putting up just 20.5 ppg through their first six games. Interesting to note that the Cajuns were dogs of six points here last year and now the role has completely reversed.

Trending

UL-Lafayette is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home when playing against a team with a winning record. East Carolina is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 40 or more points in its previous game.

Matt Fargo closed the regular season on a perfect 6-0 run with his side reports heading into the bowls. Expect more of the same as bowl season approaches so grab his Bowl Package for just $295.95, it's a steal!

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, Dec. 22

Las Vegas Bowl Preview
By Matt Fargo
Playbook.com

Washington Huskies vs. Boise St. Broncos (-5/46)


How Washington got here


It was an interesting season for Washington which had some good wins but also had some terrible losses. The Huskies were one of only two teams to defeat Stanford while victories over San Diego St. and Oregon St. were also impressive. Three losses against LSU, Oregon and Arizona were by a combined 104 points and a season ending loss against Washington St. in the Apple Cup was inexcusable. Clearly, Washington plays well when it wants to show up but it is hit or miss of when that is. Still, a 7-5 record is something to build upon as heading to a bowl game was in question after a 3-4 start. The Huskies definitely got a good draw in this bowl.

How Boise St. got here

We all knew Boise St. was not going to be the same team we saw in recent years, especially on offense, and it was the defense that held this team together until the offense could find its groove. After an opening loss against Michigan St., the Broncos reeled off seven straight wins before losing a rare home game against San Diego St. but they recovered to win their final three games to claim a share of the MWC title. This is the 11th straight postseason appearance for the Broncos who are also playing in their third straight Las Vegas Bowl. The last two were blowout wins over Utah and Arizona St. by 23 and 32 points respectively.

Interesting Stat

After finishing the season this year, Washington and Boise St. will open the 2013 season on August 31st at revamped Husky Stadium.

Breakdown

While we should see a lot of shootouts this bowl season, this likely will not be one of them. The defenses led the way for both teams as Washington is 30th in total defense and 37th in scoring defense while Boise St. is ninth in total defense and sixth in scoring defense. Still, the teams have shown the ability to score as the Broncos tallied 32 or more points seven times while Washington scored 28 or more points in its final three games after doing so only once in its first nine games and that came against Portland St. of the FCS. Both teams are in the top 30 in turnover margin so should any miscues take place on either side, that could be the ultimate difference.

Trending

Boise St. is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games coming off a conference win by less than a touchdown.

Washington is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, Dec. 22

New Orleans Bowl Preview

I tend to be wary of teams going back to same bowl they won LY; UL-Lafayette (+4) upset San Diego State 32-30 in this game LY, their first-ever bowl, in front of partisan crowd of 42,000+; their excitement level can’t be the same for this game. ULL scored 31-52-35 points in last three games; they allowed 21+ in last seven, and are 3-3-1 vs spread as favorites this year. East Carolina beat Tulane 28-23 on this field November 17, so they’ll be in familiar surroundings, only with much bigger crowd. All four of ECU’s losses this year are by 20+ points; they scored 41+ points in last four wins. Pirates are in 5th bowl in last six years after staying home LY; they’ve lost last three bowls, but those were all vs SEC/ACC teams. ECU’s last bowl win was an upset of Boise State in Hawai’i five years ago. ULL played slightly tougher schedule this year. Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 5-2 vs spread this year; C-USA road dogs are 7-12. This will basically be a ULL home game.

Las Vegas Bowl Preview

Washington lost three of last four bowls, beating Nebraska 19-7 two years ago, before RGIII/Baylor ran them out of Alamodome LY, 67-56, game that cost DC Holt his job—he was replaced by Justin Wilcox, who was Boise’s DC from 2006-09. Boise State is in Las Vegas Bowl for third year in row (won 26-3/56-24 last two years, both as double digit favorites vs Pac-12 teams), so little bit wary of Broncos here, since they’ve got new QB/OC from LY. Peterson is 4-2 in bowl games (5-1 vs spread); Boise scored 27+ points in 8 of 12 games this year, but won three of four when they scored less- this is a less explosive Bronco team that has a better defense. Washington was on 4-game win streak and had 18-point lead in Apple Cup rivalry game, but blew that game- they allowed 17 or less points in all seven wins. Huskies are 5-3 vs spread as an underdog this year; Boise is 5-6 as a favorite. MWC non-conference favorites are 6-8 vs spread; Pac-12 underdogs are 7-4.

Armadillosports.com

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New Orleans Bowl Preview
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com

East Carolina vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
CRIS Opener: UL-Lafayette -4.5 O/U 63
CRIS Current: UL-Lafayette -5 O/U 65.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: UL-Lafayette -4.5

UL-Lafayette makes its second straight trip to the New Orleans bowl after defeating San Diego State 32-30 as 6-point underdogs last season. It was a pro Ragin' Cajuns crowd but the Superdome was only about half full and East Carolina should travel much better than the Aztecs. ECU returns to the postseason after finishing 5-7 last year. They were blown out by Maryland, 51-20, in the 2010 Military Bowl.

The turning point for UL-Lafayette was its road win over UL-Monroe. They benefited from the Warhawks losing quarterback Kolton Browning to injury late in the first half, but it was still a significant victory. The following week they nearly upset Florida in the Swamp and closed out the regular season with three straight victories. Much of that success came courtesy of an offense that led the Sun Belt in total yards (486.3 ypg) and yards per play (7.2) in league play. The problem however was defense. For as much as ULL gained, they had a tendency to give it right back. In fact if we take away their Week 1 contest against FCS Lamar, ULL outgained its opponents by only 37 total yards this season. In conference play, the Ragin' Cajuns ranked dead last in total defense (457.6 ypg) and yards per play allowed (6.19).

East Carolina also closed its season strong. Eliminate the somewhat meaningless late season contest against Navy and the Pirates won their last five C-USA games. Quarterback Shane Carden was the key. After a rough first half of the season, Carden posted a 17-4 TD-to-INT ratio during that 5-1 stretch. The one knock on ECU was its inability to step up in class. I mentioned ULL's win at Monroe and near upset at Florida. ECU was outscored 171-64 against Navy, UCF, North Carolina and South Carolina. Lafayette may have had similar results but the point is ECU didn't beat one team that would be favored over ULL on a neutral field.

Without question the Sun Belt was stronger than C-USA this year. Tulsa and Central Florida were solid and ECU a tick below but beyond that, there were some bad football teams. The Sun Belt meanwhile put four teams in the postseason and left 8-4 Middle Tennessee at home. And their success wasn't just beating up on the weak. Western Kentucky won at Kentucky. UL-Monroe took Baylor, Auburn and Arkansas to the wire, beating the Razorbacks 34-31 in overtime back in Week 1 as 30-point underdogs. MTSU went on the road and crushed Georgia Tech. Troy was right there with Tennessee and Mississippi State. And UL-Lafayette was a special teams’ miscue away from taking Florida to overtime in the Swamp.

The game opened ULL -4.5 and was immediately bet up to -6 where it stood for the better part of two weeks. Earlier this week, bettors took out all of the +6's with most shops returning to 4.5. I don't think the venue is worth all that much for ULL but I do feel that they are deserving of being the favorite. The problem is should they be laying more than a field goal despite owning one of the worst defenses in the Sun Belt? Tough to lay points in what has the potential to be a trading scores type of affair. Break the matchup down however you like but in a one game scenario there simply isn’t much difference between these two squads. I grabbed some +6 early and remain comfortable with my ticket.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, Dec. 22

Las Vegas Bowl Preview
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com

Washington at Boise State
CRIS Opener: Boise State -5.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current: Boise State-5.5 O/U 44.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Boise State -2.5

It's hard to imagine Washington practicing and getting ready for this bowl game with much enthusiasm after losing its last game of the season 31-28 to in state and PAC-12 Conference rival Washington State as a 14.5-point favorite. The team and coaching staff were embarrassed and must now game plan for Boise State a team who has been to and prepared for 11 straight bowl games including back-to-back Las Vegas Bowl winners. They won and covered both of those games defeating Arizona State 56-24 last year and beating Utah 26-3 in 2010. The Broncos are 4-0 in their last four bowl games straight up and against the spread.
 
The line on this game opened Boise State -5.5 was bet up to -6 and down to as low as -5 and back up to -5.5 where it currently stands. When it comes to bowl games heavy betting market players usually do not tie up their money for several weeks on these contests, simply for the fact that there is too much time in between their last regular season game or conference championship and their bowl game. Player suspensions, coaching changes, academic ineligibilities and injuries can lead to major swings in the line and unless you have breaking information you'll likely get shut out of the best number. Therefore most bettors that have played this game already are backing both teams and the line is bouncing around between both sides, but the total has strong action.
 
Linesmakers opened the total 46.5 and it was bet quickly down to 46 and is now currently 44.5. I agree and can understand this line move for many reasons. Both Washington and Boise State rank better on defense than they do on offense and that usually leads to lower scoring contests. The Broncos rank very high at sixth in the nation on defense, the Huskies 38th, while on offense Boise State ranks 55th and Washington 90th. Some of these stats can be misleading, because strength of schedule must always be taken into consideration. Washington played a very strong schedule this season in the much improved PAC-12, ranking 40th of 124 teams. Boise's schedule was much easier at 77th. When facing teams with winning records this season, Washington is 4-1 to the under and Boise State is 5-0 to the under.
 
I've been to the Las Vegas Bowl five times in the past seven years and can tell you from experience that during this time of year in Southern Nevada, it is the rainy season and in each game that I attended at Sam Boyd Stadium it was cold, rainy and windy, which obviously helps the under. Having said that, the forecast is for partly cloudy skies and 56 degrees.
 
First half betting is a wager that is underutilized by most bettors and oodsmakers are slow to post these lines until the week of the bowl game. Boise State has been a continuous money maker this season in the first half going 9-3 straight up and 8-1 against the spread in its last nine games. In fact they shut out six of their 12 opponents in the regular season in the first half! The first half line here for the bowl game is Boise State -3.
 
One of the handicapping factors that I found to be appealing is that the UW’s defensive co-coordinator Justin Wilcox was the Broncos defensive coordinator from 2006 to 2010. Most of the players that he coached have graduated, but there will be a few juniors and seniors that Wilcox will know and game plan for which is a bit of an advantage for Washington. Also, another interesting note is that these two teams will meet in the first game of the 2013 season and a win will be satisfying for the entire off-season, but conversely revenge will spark the losing side.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, Dec. 22

New Orleans Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

East Carolina vs. UL Lafayette (-4.5, 65)


R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL GAME STORYLINES


1. Louisiana-Lafayette won four of its last five games, scoring 31 or more points in each of the wins in claiming second place in the Sun Belt, and makes its second consecutive trip to The Big Easy after winning the bowl last year. The Ragin' Cajuns will put their high-scoring attack to the test against East Carolina in a near inevitable shootout. The Pirates, who won five of their last six before losing the Conference USA tiebreaker to Central Florida, have scored more than 40 points in four of those wins.

2. The Ragin' Cajuns and the Pirates make the most of their scoring opportunities. Louisiana-Lafayette is tied for second in the country in red zone efficiency while the Pirates lead C-USA and are tied for fifth nationally.

3. While both teams have had little trouble scoring the ball, neither has had much success stopping their opponents as they allow close to 30 points per game. The Pirates suffered each of their four defeats by at least 20 points.

LINE: This line opened as high as UL Lafayette -6 and the total has crept up from 64 to 65.5 at some shops.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in Pirates' last five games overall.
* Ragin' Cajuns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Pirates are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Ragin' Cajuns' last five games following a win.

ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (8-4, 7-1 C-USA): Shane Carden has racked up 2,838 yards of total offense and 29 touchdowns this season. In the Pirates' 65-59 double-overtime victory over Marshall in their season finale, Carden completed 38 of 47 passes for 439 yards and three touchdowns while running for another three scores. Justin Hardy, Carden's top target, has caught 83 passes for 1,046 yards and 10 touchdowns as East Carolina's air attack ranks 35th in the nation. Vintavious Cooper's 1,030 rushing yards and seven scores helps balance the attack. The Pirates are likely underdogs because of the four blowout losses to South Carolina, North Carolina, Central Florida and Navy. Also, East Carolina failed to record a victory against a bowl-bound opponent.

ABOUT LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE  (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt):
While its the Ragin' Cajuns four wins in their last five games that sent them to New Orleans, its their lone loss in that span - a 27-20 defeat at the hands of then-No. 6 Florida that put them in the public spotlight. Dual-threat quarterback Terrance Broadway has thrown for 2,565 yards and 16 touchdowns while rushing for 661 yards and another eight scores. Three of his four best rushing performances came in Louisiana-Lafayette's last three games -- all wins. Paired with Alonzo Harris (761 yards, eight touchdowns), the Ragin' Cajuns average 187.3 yards per game on the ground, 40th-best in the nation. Louisiana-Lafayette recorded two victories over bowl teams this season in Louisiana-Monroe and Western Kentucky.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, Dec. 22

Las Vegas Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Washington vs. Boise State (-5.5, 45)


MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS STORYLINES


1. It is a testament to how well Chris Petersen and his staff have done at Boise State that a 10-2 season feels like a down year. The 15th-ranked Broncos were likely out of BCS consideration when they fell at Michigan State on opening weekend but stayed strong behind a defense that allowed less than 15 points and managed to claim a share of the Mountain West. While Boise State was expected to take a small step back, Washington’s step forward in the Pac-12 never fully materialized this season and a loss in the Apple Cup left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth last month.

2. The Huskies have struggled offensively all season and will have to go up against a stout Boise State defense. Washington did not get to 30 points in Pac-12 play until facing the bottom of the league in Utah and Colorado late in the season. The Broncos gave up more than 20 only three times and never let a team hit 30. Boise State has been especially strong against the pass, holding opponents to 163.4 yards - fourth in the nation.

3. Washington is trying to lock down its first eight-win season since 2001 while the Broncos are hoping to avoid their first three-loss campaign since 2007. The schools have met only once previously (a 24-10 victory by the Huskies in Seattle in 2007) but will be playing in back-to-back contests, with the Broncos set to open next season in Seattle on Aug. 31.

LINE: The line opened at Boise State -6 at most shops with the total shrinking to 45 after opening at 46.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 10 mph.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 5-0 in Broncos’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Huskies’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.

ABOUT WASHINGTON (7-5, 5-4 Pac 12): The Huskies went 7-6 in each of the previous two seasons and were a trendy pick to challenge for the Pac-12 North with junior quarterback Keith Price entering his third year in coach Steve Sarkisian’s system. But Price and the entire team developed a tendency to come up short in their biggest games early in the season. Losses at LSU in September and a three-game slide in October saw the Huskies outscored by an average of 28.5 points. They were on their way to a five-game winning streak to close the regular season before squandering an 18-point lead to rival Washington State. Price could spend most of his day in Las Vegas handing off to sophomore running back Bishop Sankey, who totaled 1,234 yards and 15 touchdowns in the regular season. Sankey will be going up against the soft spot in the Broncos’ defense, a front line that has allowed an average of 141.3 yards on the ground.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (10-2, 7-1 MWC):
The Broncos will be making their 11th straight bowl appearance and third in a row at the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas. They beat Utah 26-3 in the 2010 game and took out Arizona State 56-24 in Las Vegas last December. Boise State was replacing four-year starter at quarterback Kellen Moore in 2012 and took a while for the offense to catch up to the defense under new signal-caller Joe Southwick. The junior came on at the end of the season, throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the final three games to bring the Broncos back to a tie for first place in the Mountain West. Senior running back D.J. Harper finished the season with back-to-back 100-yard games and should see plenty of carries against a Washington defense that has surrendered 164.3 yards on average.

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