Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday December, 10

Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday December, 10

DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

Houston at New England
The Texans look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning home record. Houston is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2)

Game 133-134: Houston at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 141.139; New England 142.851
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Over

NBA

Atlanta at Miami
The Heat look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games versus the Hawks. Miami is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7)

Game 701-702: Detroit at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.994; Philadelphia 118.588
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+6 1/2); Under

Game 703-704: Golden State at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 119.239; Charlotte 112.569
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 6 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 4; 203
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-4); Over

Game 705-706: Atlanta at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 118.857; Miami 129.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7); Over

Game 707-708: San Antonio at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 128.810; Houston 119.895
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 198
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Sacramento at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 110.782; Dallas 118.693
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 8; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 7; 198
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Over

Game 711-712: Toronto at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 112.773; Portland 114.056
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 5 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5 1/2); Under

NCAAB

Seattle at Eastern Washington
The Redhawks look to take advantage of an Eastern Washington team that is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games. Seattle is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+5 1/2)

Game 713-714: Seattle at Eastern Washington (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 50.261; Eastern Washington 53.160
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 3
Vegas Line: Eastern Washington by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+5 1/2)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday December, 10

Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit vs. PhiladelphiaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams played a very low-scoring game against each other here last month, a 94-76 upset win by the Pistons. This one figures to have considerably more points.
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The Pistons have been quite streaky offensively over the last month.
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From 11/9 through 11/14, they went four games where they failed to reach the 95-point mark. That was followed by back-to-back games where they scored 103 or more, which was followed by two more low-scoring games.
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Next, they began a stretch where they reached triple-digits in three straight games, culminating in a 117 point effort vs. Phoenix. A road game at Memphis cooled them off. However, they enter tonight's game off three straight "overs," scoring 97, 104 and 104, while allowing 104, 108 and 97. Note that all three games were decided in regulation too, so the three straight combined scores in the 200s were "legit."
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Off a defensive home and home series, the 76ers should be happy to get out and run a little more here. Even off a low-scoring game (92-79 loss) on Saturday, they've still seen six of their last eight top the total.
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After the low-scoring game at Boston, Jrue Holiday noted:"I think all the shots that we took were all good shots. I know in the first quarter at least seven of them rattled in and out, where you thought they were good buckets. Times like that, what can you do?"
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Coach Collins added: "We've got to do a better job of helping Jrue and Evan when they get trapped. Our guys did not react. I talked to them, I showed them the tape. They've gotta react before the trap, not after, and we were reacting after it. We've gotta get up and get the ball out, because when you do you're playing 4-on-3, and so we've gotta do a better job of that."
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Translation: Score more points.
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Saturday marked the 76ers fifth double-digit loss this season. They've followed up the first four of those defeats by seeing the "over" go 3-1 in their next game. Consider the Over.

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Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texans at PatriotsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This could be a preview for the AFC Championship Game -- and Houston (11-1) has played a decisive 28 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Texans saw Jake Locker pass for 265 yards in their 24-10 win at Tennessee last Sunday -- and they have also played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. New England (9-3) will likely embrace the pace of a higher scoring game as well since they have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Patriots have also played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total. They come off a 23-16 win at Miami as an 8-point favorite -- and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 8 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Over is 5-2-1 for the Pats. Take the Over in this one.

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Timothy BlackFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Texans vs. New England PatriotsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Houston TexansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Texans are a perfect 6-0 on the road this season and show a 4-1-1 record ATS. While I don't necessarily think Houston will pull out the SU win, I do like them to stay within a FG. The Texans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games while the Patriots are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Also, the Texans are 9-1-1 ATS against a team with a winning record and 16-6-2 ATS in their last 24 games overall.

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Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pistons vs. 76ersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 187FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a nice totals system that has played to the under 12 of 15 times as we play the under for rested road dogs of 5 or more like Detroit, that scored 100 or more points on the road at -3 to +3, while shooting 45% or higher, vs an opponent like the Sixers that scored 90 or less as a road dog in their last game. These two teams play tough defense and this should be a low scoring affair. The Pistons have stayed under in 4 of this season as a road dog in this range and 3 of 4 vs Atlantic division teams. Philadelphia has played under in 4 of 5 vs Central division teams. In the series here 4 of the last 5 have stayed under the posted total including an earlier season match up that yielded 170 points. Take the Under here tonight.

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ersREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Philadelphia 76ersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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76ers off a bad game at Boston and with revenge from an earlier upset loss on this court to the Pistons. Philly is not a dominant home team, but this might be a pretty good spot and the number is not prohibitive. 76ers minus the points tonight.

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Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Spurs at RocketsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The San Antonio spurs are having another excellent season, with a 17-4 S/U and 14-6 ATS record. They have also been very good as an OVER team on the road with a 9-3 O/U away mark. The reason is because they score points in bunches, league #2 ranking in points scored (104.6 ppg) and being first in assists per game (25.5). In fact, the Spurs have scored 100 or more points in nine of their last 10 games while going OVER in eight of those contests. And how will they fare against the Rockets tonight? Consider the Rockets have allowed at least 100 points in seven straight and 10 of the last 11 games. The Rockets have gone OVER in five of their last seven games. And the last five meetings in Houston, four overs and one under. Take the OVER tonight in Houston.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NEW ENGLAND -4 over HoustonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While Houston has the better record, the Patriots appear to be the stronger team. New England has the best point differential in the league, an impressive +170. While Houston has the 2nd best mark, there is still a 40 point difference. The Patriots are commonly double digit home favourite’s, negating a exceptional ATS mark. However, when you look at the Pats as 7-point or less favourite, they are an outstanding 22-9 ATS in regular season home games.
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They’ll get a Texans team that finds themselves at the tail end of a three-game road trip to face a New England team that has lost just twice in 30 previous regular season home games and has not lost a regular season home game in December since 2002. The Pats have the top ranked offense with the least giveaways in the league while their defense forces the second most turnovers in the league. The Ravens loss yesterday opens up a door for the Patriots to tie Denver for the #2 seed in the AFC. This host usually walks through open doors.

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JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Heat -7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Oster almost never backs this "South Beach NBA" crew ... tonight we actually see value on the Heat....  The  13-5 Heat are a  motivated bunch tonight as they are a 7 to 7.5 point chalk here vs a team 1/2 game behind them in the "Division".  Way Too easy to grab the 7 imo tonight. The Heat are 4 for 4 vs the Hawks. The #'s are powerful @ Miami Heat are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home games & Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We are Power Rating "THIS BABY" @ - 11 points flat..... 98-87 Mia Heat Winner..... Looks way way to easy to grab the 7

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Cajun SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Pistons +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Detroit Pistons qualify in a super system that is active tonight in their game versus the Philadelphia 76ers. Play ON NBA road teams off a division road game versus an opponent coming in off a road loss. This system is 82-53-6 ATS since 2008. Take the points with the visitor on Monday night in the City of Brotherly Love.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Detroit Pistons 87 Philadelphia 76ers 89

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Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta vs. Miami
Pick: AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta is playing some good ball of late, and people are starting to take notice. "They've got three point guards that's very quick, three guys that's very quick in Lou Will (Williams), Devin Harris and Jeff Teague and those guys really speed the tempo up, and an All-Star in Al Horford and Josh Smith is really playing at a high level as well," LeBron said.
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The Hawks are 12-5 on the season, one win fewer than Miami. Atlanta has won three straight, including a huge win in Memphis on Saturday, by a score of 93-83.
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Atlanta has played well against the Heat in recent meetings, including their last trip to Miami, when they lost 95-89 in the pre-season. The Heat have won four of the last five versus the Hawks, but only once was the margin of victory more than seven points.
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The Heat have only covered the spread twice in their last six games, and they have a record of 8-10 ATS so far this season.
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The Hawks are getting a whole bunch of points on the road in Miami tonight, and they are the hotter team lately.
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I like Atlanta to cover.

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John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Sacramento Kings at Dallas MavericksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Sacramento KingsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that the Kings will lose this game by five or fewer points. I like playing this opportunity as a combination bet with an 8.5* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line. What I like in this matchup is that the Kings have the better defense and this will negate the Mavericks fast break attack that ranks third in the NBA averaging 17.3 PPG. Sound defensive rebounding is critical; when playing a road dog. I believe that the Kings will do a great job defending their glass and will minimize Dallas second chance scoring opportunities. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-16 ATS mark for 72% winners since 1996. Play against home favorites off an upset win over a division rival installed as a dog and now facing an opponent off an upset win as a road dog. 55% of the games played based on the criteria of this system have covered the spread vy seven or more points and this clearly underscores my strong believe that the Kings can not only cover, but also pull off the road upset win in Dallas tonight. Take Sacramento.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia 76ers -5.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Motivated by a 92-79 loss at Boston in their last game and further fueled by a 94-76 home loss to the Pistons in the season's first meeting, expect the 76ers to show up in a big way tonight.
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Philadelphia is on a 6-1 ATS run in games following a loss of more than 10 points.
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The Pistons won at Cleveland in their last game, but they are only 2-10 on the road this season. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. It is also worth noting that they are on a 15-26 ATS slide as a road underdog and have lost these games by an average score of 99.4 to 88.3.
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In addition, the Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning record while the 76ers are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games versus a team with a losing record.
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The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue. Bet the 76ers.

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Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto Raptors +3.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Toronto Raptors should not be an underdog to the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. Sure, at 4-17 they own the second-worst record in the league, but this is a great spot to back them tonight.
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This will be Toronto's fifth road game in a row, and their first four have come against some tough opponents in the Clippers, Jazz, Nuggets and Kings. This team is now battle-tested, and it wants to conclude this trip with a victory.
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I like its chances of getting a win against a Portland team that will likely be playing without two starters. Nicolas Batum (16.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is expected to miss his third straight game with a back injury, while Wesley Matthews (16.0 PPG) is doubtful with a hip injury.
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Portland has lost two straight without Batum, including an ugly 80-99 home loss to the Kings last time out. The Blazers really cannot afford to be down two starters because they have the worst bench in the league. Their bench ranks 30th in scoring (14.9 points/game), which is 9.0 points worse than the 29th-ranked bench (Lakers).
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The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. Toronto is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 Monday games. The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Monday games. Bet the Raptors Monday.

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KelsoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Pick; San Antonio SpursFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The ageless Spurs just keep winning and come into this game standing 9-1 in their last 10 games, with the only loss coming in Miami, 105-100, in a game in which four starters were sent home to rest. San Antonio also shows the single most characteristic of being a good team and that is its 10-2 record on the road and they should push that to 11-2 tonight against a Houston team that may well be without leading scorer, guard James Harden (24.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5-6 assists per game) who has an ankle injury. Even if he plays there is little chance he will be as effective as when he is healthy. A bad Houston defense should also be a contributing factor to a San Antonio win. The Spurs are offensively explosive, averaging an NBA second-best 104.6 points per game, and Houston is giving up an NBA-worst 103.9 per outing.

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Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Sacramento +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There is no small risk in backing a Kings team who is just 1-6 SU away, and who has lost 16 consecutive trips to Big D. But without Dirk in the lineup, the Mavs are just 1-4 ATS HF of late. Meanwhile, surging Sac has recorded three consecutive victories as this emerging team builds momentum. But it is a most recent game for each that saw Dallas upset Houston, and Sac upset Portland, that has keyed this strong situation. In NBA action, road teams off a SU road dog win, are 41-16 ATS (72%) against home chalk that comes off a straight up underdog win vs a divisional rival. Let's try these upstart Kings as the underdog. This puppy is backed up by a 41-16 ATS (72%) underdog situation.

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Jeff Scott Sports
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4 UNIT PLAY
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Dallas/ Sacramento Under 200: Really like this play, especially with how this teams have been playing of late. Dallas is off a high scoring game vs the Rockets, bur everyone gets into shootouts with them. Despite the 225 points that were scored in that game, Dallas' last 5 games have still averaged just 193.2 ppg. The Mavs offense put up 116 points in the Houston game, but this group has still be struggling as they averaged 90.7 ppg in their 6 games prior to the Houston game. Now they face a Kings team that is playing with confidence defensively, having allowed just 162 points in their last 2 games. The Kings last 6 games overall have not been all that high scoring, as those games have averaged just 188.5 ppg. The Kings offense has not been that great this year, especially on the road where they have averaged just 91 ppg, while in their last 6 overall they have put up just 93.1 ppg. The Dallas offense has been shaky this year, but just don't see the Kings going wild on them in this one. I don't expect either team to hit 100 points in this one as I look for it to be played in the low 190's at best.  KEY TREND--- The Under is 9-2 in the Mavericks last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
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3 UNIT PLAY
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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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Charlotte/ Golden State Over 202.5: The Charlotte offense has not been great this year, but they have shown signs of late as of late, putting up 10.5 ppg in their last 5 games, while at home they have averages 98.4 ppg, which isn't too shabby for this team. Defensively is where the Bobcats have had their struggles this year, allowing 103.4 ppg (28th) overall, including a whopping 112.4 ppg in their last 5 games. In their last 9 games they have allowed 100+ points 8 times and will be taking on a hot Golden State offense that has averaged 102.8 ppg in their last 6 games. Overall the warriors average 99.5 ppg on the road, while their defense allows 100.5 ppg away from home. I look for both teams to crack 100+ points as this one puts at least 212 points on the board, just like in last year's meeting (212 points). POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Bobcats are 15-0 Over since November 16, 2004 as a home dog after a game at home in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. This play has covered by an average of 16.3 ppg.

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Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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4 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NEW ENGLAND -4,5 over Houston: Watching ESPN this morning and I really like what Herm Edwards said. The Texans are really making this into their biggest game game they have ever played and with that they have now put a ton of pressure on themselves and teams that do that don't always perform the best. Don't get me wrong, this is a big game for the Pats as well, but they don't put pressure on themselves like other teams will do. They just go out and get the job done. The Patriot offense has been machine like this year as they have averaged 35.8 ppg overall and 34.8 ppg at home. A big addition to the pats offense has been a running game that has come alive to rank 8th in the league at 140.8 ypg. A running game to go along with this passing games makes them nearly impossible to stop. The Texan defense is 6th overall, but they can be thrown on, ranking 16th vs the pass (234.8 ypg). including allowing 352 ypg passing in their last 3 games. Let's also note that Houston has struggled vs 3 very good offenses this year (Green Bay, Detroit and Denver), allowing 32.6 ppg in the 3 games, plus they did allow a weak Jacksonville offense to pass for 372 yards and put up 37 points on them just 3 games ago. This unit has been hit by some injuries and it's starting to wear down and a road date in December vs the Pats is not what a worn down defense needs. The Houston offense has been very good this year, but the Pats defense has not been all that bad as tyhey have allowed just 21.7 ppg on the year. They do give up allot of yards passing, but allot of that is garbage yards when teams are trying top catch up. This is a big game for both teams, but the Pats will handle the pressure so much better. New England will make a statement in this game with a win by double digits.

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Golden State Warriors at Charlotte Bobcats
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The (13-7) Golden State Warriors of the NBA western Conference Pacific division will take on the (7-12) Charlotte Bobcats of the Eastern Conference Southeast division in 2012 NBA action. Golden State has won 6 of their last 7 straight, including their last 3 in a row on the road. Charlotte has covered 5 of the last 6 Against The Spread vs. Golden State. The Bobcats has lost their last 7 NBA games straight up, but will get the home cover tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday December, 10

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Texans / Patriots Over 51

We could witness the start of a new regime on Monday Night Football when the traditional powerhouses, the New England Patriots (9-3, 7-5 ATS) host the new giants of the AFC, the Houston Texans (11-1, 8-4 ATS) at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA at 8:35 ET on ESPN. Although the Texans are 11-1, they have not caught the fascination of the entire country yet because they have had some close calls vs. some mediocre competition. That could change if they can pull off a win here vs. Tom Brady & Co. on the road. The Patriots come in riding a six-game winning streak of their own, matching the winning streak of the Texans since their only loss to the Green Bay Packers at home.

Thus Houston is a perfect 6-0 on the road going 4-2 ATS in those games, and they have both one of the best running games and best defenses in the NFL. That could be another reason why the Texans have not captured the public fancy as they do not get involved in many high-scoring shootouts like the Patriots do. Instead, all Houston does is win by ranking sixth in the NFL in rushing offense at 141.4 yards per game and an identical sixth in total defense at 322.9 yards, as well as fourth in scoring defense allowing just 18.4 points per contest. Houston is very physical on the line on both sides of the ball, as the offensive line has opened up some gaping holes for Arian Foster to run through and the defense lines heads a front seven that has 37 sacks through 12 games. Winning the battles on both lines of scrimmage can help make the Texans the undisputed new kings of the AFC Monday night.

Now Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, and New England will obviously always merit respect as long as he is under center. But he does not like getting hit much, and you may recall that the few teams that have beaten the Patriots in recent years were all teams that play physical defense and that get to the quarterback out of a base defense without needing to blitz, as Brady can beat any blitzing defense. Well, the Texans fit that mold. Moreover, the New England offensive line has had a few breakdowns this season as it is not as good or as deep as in recent seasons. One way to slow down the Houston pass rush is by running the ball effectively, and Stevan Ridley is an upgrade at running back over other New England feature backs in recent years. The problem of course is that Houston leads the AFC and ranks second in the NFL in rushing defense allowing a scant 88.2 yards per game on the ground.

The Texans are coming off of a 24-10 win at Tennessee, and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. They are also 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 conference games overall as their lines are still not padded as much as other elite teams. The Patriots are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.

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