2012 UFC on FOX 5 Picks & Predictions for Henderson vs. Diaz

2012 UFC on FOX 5 Picks & Predictions for Henderson vs. Diaz

2012 UFC on FOX 5 Betting Odds & Card for Henderson vs. Diaz
By Drew Sharper 

SEATTLE, WA (TheSpread) – The UFC Lightweight Championship is one the line on Saturday as part of the main event of UFC on FOX 5. Here is a look at the odds for the main card.

UFC on FOX 5 will take place from the Key Arena in Seattle, Washington with the main card bouts airing live on FOX at 8PM ET.

The main event of Saturday’s card is for the Lightweight Championship as Benson Henderson (17-2) defends his title against Nate Diaz (16-7). According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Henderson is the slight favorite in this bout, as he has odds of -160 to retain his title, while Diaz has odds of +130 to win. Henderson is looking to defend his title for the second time since defeating Frankie Edgar for the second time. Diaz has been on an impressive run since moving from welterweight down to lightweight, winning three straight. Diaz is a submission specialist with a very long reach that he uses to work a jab and keep his opponents at a distance. Henderson is a powerful grappler with good striking, but he may have trouble landing punches and kicks against Diaz. The key for Henderson will be to get the fight to the ground and stay out of submissions from Diaz.

In the co-main event, light heavyweight contenders Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (21-6) and Alexander Gustafsson (14-1) meet up. According to oddsmakers, Gustafsson is the favorite, as he has odds of -240 to win this bout, while Rua has odds of +190 to win. Ruah has alternated wins and losses over his last seven bouts and is coming off a fourth-round TKO win over Brandon Vera last August. Gustafsson has won four straight, including a decision win over Thiago Silva last April. Both men are unorthodox strikers that attack from different angles. Shogun is the more experienced fighter, but probably the less conditioned one as well. One area Gustafsson has not done well is off his back, so Shogun may look to incorporate more grappling into his game plan to win this fight.

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For the complete odds for the UFC on FOX 5 main card, see below.

UFC on FOX 5 Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC Lightweight Championship

Nate Diaz +130
Benson Henderson -160

Light Heavyweight Bout

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua +190
Alexander Gustafsson -240

Welterweight Bout

BJ Penn +240
Rory MacDonald -300

Welterweight Bout

Matt Brown +120
Mike Swick -150

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Re: 2012 UFC on FOX 5 Picks & Predictions for Henderson vs. Diaz

2012 UFC on FOX 5 Picks & Predictions for Henderson vs. Diaz    
By Drew Sharper 

SEATTLE, WA (TheSpread) – UFC on FOX 5 takes place on Saturday night. Here is a look at a few picks to consider for this card.

UFC on FOX 5 will take place from the Key Arena with the main card bouts airing live on FOX at 8PM ET. All picks are made from odds according to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv.

UFC Lightweight Championship – Benson Henderson (17-2) vs. Nate Diaz (16-7)

This is a tough fight to call. Both men have their strengths in this fight and both are fighting at the highest level in their career. Ultimately, I like Diaz to earn the title due to his striking and length. It seems simple to say Henderson should take Diaz to the ground, but that has been an issue for most fighters as of late against Diaz. Look for Diaz to use his reach to win the striking edge. When the fight hits the ground, I see Diaz being more active and being able to work in submissions. Ultimately, I see Diaz catching Henderson in a choke in the fourth round to win his first UFC championship. UFC FREE PICK – Nate Diaz +130

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout – Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (21-6) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (14-1)

The hype train is certainly on Gustafsson right now, but this is a tough fight for him. With it only being three rounds, I expect Shogun to have the cardio to stay in good condition and not gas. I think his striking is more aggressive and he also has better grappling skills that Gustafsson. I don’t see Gustafsson being able to knock out Rua, and that is the only way I see him winning. Give me Rua a victory by decision. UFC FREE PICK – Mauricio “Shogun” Rua +190

UFC Welterweight Bout – Rory MacDonald (13-1) vs. B.J. Penn (16-8-2)

Penn hasn’t fought in nearly a year and he is just 1-3-1 in his last five fights. Penn has struggled as of late against bigger, stronger fighters, and MacDonald is just that. MacDonald is almost a clone of current 170-pound champ, Georges St. Pierre. The two train at the same gym and have the same style. GSP fought Penn a few years back and dominated him with grappling and ground strikes. Look for MacDonald to do the same with his size and strength. I see MacDonald winning by decision. UFC FREE PICK – Rory MacDonald -300

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