Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

EZ Money Picks

New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars   

It's really hard to justify this pick with stats because of all the issues the Jaguars have had. Mark Sanchez is simply awful this year. Chad Henne, on the other hand, has been playing some great football since stepping in for Gabbert! He is 3-1 as a starter with Miami against the Jets. Even though MJD will be out again, this Montell Owens guy can run the football! I like the Jaguars at home with the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Nelly

St. Louis Rams / Buffalo Bills Under

The Rams have not lost a NFC West game this season, again taking the 49ers to overtime and this time pulling out the win. It was a long grueling game and after the Rams tied the 49ers a few weeks back that had an awful performance against the Jets the following week. St. Louis has suspect offensive statistics this season, scoring just 18 points per game and Buffalo has stepped up on defense the last few weeks, allowing 20 points or less in each game. Buffalo has had a rough year at 5-7 but the Bills could still have some life if they can take care of business at home this week. The Bills have just two home losses this season and one came by a single point and this is one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, despite peculiar limited use of the running game in several games. The Rams only have one road win this season, beating helpless Arizona with the help of two defensive touchdowns two weeks ago and there could be a letdown facing long travel and cold weather after the biggest win of the year. Buffalo put up 34 points last week but the Bills have been held to below 20 points in five of the last eight games and in cold weather both teams will likely keep the ball on the ground more than usual. St. Louis has allowed 24 or fewer points in all but two of the last 10 games and they have held five of those foes to 17 or fewer points. St. Louis is 25th in the league in yards per game and 28th in scoring and the Bills are also a below average offensive team. Both teams have above average pass defenses and if you take out games against the Patriots for both teams the numbers all trend substantially further downward as the Bills allowed 89 points in two games with New England and the Rams allowed 45 in the meeting in London.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Larry Ness

San Diego vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh

Ben Roethlisberger got hurt in Pittsburgh’s Week 10 MNF win over the Chiefs. Back-to-back losses, 13-10 at home to Baltimore and 20-14 at Cleveland followed, and with a game in Baltimore last Sunday (and Big Ben still sidelined), Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes were in deep trouble. However, Batch led them to an unlikely 23-20 win last Sunday (Ravens had won 16 straight home games) and now (at 7-5), things are looking much better for the Steelers.

They are tied with the Bengals for the 6th (and final) AFC playoff spot but Roethlisberger is ready to return and the Steelers get THREE of their final four games at home. The first is Sunday’s game with the Chargers, who have dropped SEVEN of eight since a 3-1 start. Few will argue against the statement that the Chargers look like a team beyond repair. San Diego (4-8) is one loss away from its first losing season under Norv Turner and no one believes that Turner will survive this year’s failure. The Chargers have yet to beat a team with a winning record and last Sunday's 20-13 home loss to Cincinnati marked their fourth straight defeat. QB Philip Rivers has struggled during the four-game slide with six TD passes compared to five INTs while fumbling five times. The offensive line is a mess, allowing 14 sacks over the last three games.

San Diego’s last losing season was back in 2003 (4-12) and considering the Chargers have lost 14 straight in Pittsburgh (Norv Turner is 0-6 against the Steelers), San Diego’s 9th loss seems to be a forgone conclusion. The Steelers own the NFL’s top defense (259.8 YPG) and have held SEVEN straight opponents under 300 total yards, allowing an average of 234.0 YPG during that stretch. Pittsburgh would need the Ravens to lose two more games to have any shot at the division title but since wild card teams have won three of the last seven Super Bowls (including the Steelers in 2006), they don't see gaining home-field advantage in the playoffs as a necessity. Lay it with Pittsburgh.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

John Ryan

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Tennessee Titans

The simulator shows a high probability that the Titans will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and have an excellent shot at an upset road win. Given the projections, I like using a combination bet playing a 7.5* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line. Colts are a weak 10-23 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992. This is a history lesson, but it also reflects how winning teams get over valued in the second half of the season, especially when playing an apparent struggling team. Tennessee, for mostly the same reason, is a stout 32-17 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. The Colts rank 30th in the NFL in turnover differential and the Titans have significant OL and DL advantages on both sides of the ball. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 102-54 record for 65% winners since 1983. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that is a struggling team being outscored by opponents by 7 or more points per game and after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. Locker was sacked six times and threw 3 picks in last week?s loss at Houston. The Colts are are a far cry from what the Houston Texans bring along the DL and Lockers is at his best when he has time to throw and step into his throws through passing lanes. The Titans OL is arguably one of the most vastly under rated units in the NFL. They did struggle at times in reading the Texans blitz schemes, but all teams have that problem. Colts cannot afford to blitz and be caught in man coverage as Locker has the size and arm strength to exploit those matchups. Take the Titans.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

HARRY BONDI

Philadelphia / Tampa Bay Over 47

We'll look for a high-scoring affair today in Tampa when two teams that don't play much defense go head-to-head. The Bucs have been an "over" machine, going up and over the total in eight out of nine games, thanks mostly to a secondary that is on pace to give up the most single-season passing yards in NFL history. Meanwhile, since the Eagles fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo six weeks ago the team has given up an average of 32.5 points per game and has gone over in five of its last seven games. Philly will have no answer for the Tampa duo of RB Doug Martin and QB Josh Freeman. Go over.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Charlie Sports

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Play: Tennessee Titans

The (4-8) Tennessee Titans of the AFC South division division will take on the (8-4) Indianapolis Colts of the same division in 2012 NFL action. The Colts beat Tennessee on the raod back in last October. Tennessee has lost 4 of theirl ast 5 Football games straight up and Against The Spread while the Colts are 6-1 staright up and ATS. Indy has everything to lose and may play a little tite today, Tennessee gets the road cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Scott Delaney

I'm on 46-28-2 free play run right now, and today I am banking on the Seattle Seahawks to get it done against the Arizona Cardinals in NFC West action. Bad time for the Redbirds to fly into town, since the Seahawks are soaring right now, playing their best football of the season. And since they're in must-win mode and needing to win out as the cling to the final playoff spot in the NFC while saving some hope for a division title, if the can catch the West-leading San Francisco 49ers.

Arizona is more than just reeling with a 4-8 team mark, but has has quarterback issues that make this a less-than spectacular offense right now. Let's not even talk about Darnell Dockett being accused of spitting at teammate Kerry Rhodes during an altercation late in the Cardinals' 7-6 loss to the New York Jets last Sunday.

John Skelton will start for Arizona, while Ryan Lindley will be sent to the bench. And I don't see any of the quarterbacks on that roster being able to do anything against the Seahawks' fourth-ranked defense in Seattle.

Laying double digits is normally a big deal in the NFL against a division opponent that has already seen you once, but I don't seeing that making too much a difference in this game. Especially this being a revenge game from Sept. 9, when the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, 20-16 on Sept. 9.

Lay the points boys.

3♦ SEATTLE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Chuck O'Brien

Last Sunday's comp play was the Steelers outright at Baltimore.

Today's selection is going to be Cincinnati (-3') over Dallas, and I want you to buy the half-point down on the Bengals, playing it intelligently since there is a hook dangling from the point spread.

I have to look at the 'what have you done for me lately' theory with this game, and I see the Cowboys needed heroics to beat an equally struggling Philadelphia Eagles team last week, while the Bengals took care of business on the road at San Diego. Sorry Cowboys fans, but the Bengals are taking this playoff run much more seriously than your Pokes.

I know Dallas has won three of last four, scoring 38, 23, 38 and 38 points, but look at the teams it has faced: Philadelphia (twice), Washington and Cleveland. I don't believe it's been tested defensively at all in a while, and today is the day it hits a brick wall. The Bengals lead the league in sacks with 39, followed by Denver (38) and Houston (36), while defensive tackle Geno Atkins leads all NFL interior linemen with 9-1/2 sacks. I expect the Bengals to put the heat on Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, who is playing behind a battered offensive line.

Meanwhile, Cincy's offense is led by quarterback Andy Dalton, who ranks second in the AFC in fourth-quarter passer rating at 100.1. So even if Dallas is keeping things close, or even leading, you best believe the Bengals are never out of it. The rushing game has improved of late, as running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis has run for more than 100 yards in each of the team's last three outings. After averaging a mere 93.7 yards rushing over the first nine games, Cincinnati has averaged 179.3 in its last three.

Look for a complete effort on all sides of the ball, as Cincinnati gets it done.

3♦ CINCINNATI

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Jeff Benton

Your Sunday freebie is the underdog Kansas City Chiefs as they visit the Cleveland Browns.

No doubt KC has had a very trying time recently, but they were able to muster an emotional win last week against Carolina, and they have been playing competitive football since their overtime cover at Pittsburgh a month ago, covering in three of their last four tries as the underdog.

Cleveland has been playing some competitive football also, winning their last pair outright and going 3-1-1 against the spread their past five games. That's all fine and dandy, but looking at this game, the Brownies are in the rare role of favorite, a role they pushed in last week at Oakland.

As a home favorite, the Browns are just 1-5-1 the past two-plus seasons, and this is their first try as a home favorite all season long. Likely that Cleveland extends their winning streak to three in a row as Kansas City has got to be emotional fraught now that the tragedy has had some time to settle in, but I see this game being decided by no more than a field goal.

Chiefs plus the points the call here.

2♦ KANSAS CITY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Chris Jordan

My free winner for Sunday is going to be the Atlanta Falcons laying points in tobacco country, as I like the Dirty Birds to get it done against the Carolina Panthers. I do see the consensus line is 3-1/2, so I want you to buy the half point off the point spread, and laying a flat field goal in this game.

Although many of us have become accustomed to seeing Atlanta's "Matty Ice" Ryan some of his trademark late-game heroics take place against Carolina, I think the Falcons are going to get it done with ease in this one, as they don't have time to screw around with the season coming to a close soon.

We've seen three different Ryans, in my opinion. Over the first four games of the season, Ryan threw for 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions. In games 5 through 8, he threw six touchdown passes and four interceptions. More recently, he's thrown five touchdown strikes and seven miscues over his past four games.

Time to get back to dominating. And since Carolina is easily one of the more physical teams Atlanta will play all season, and the front four is as good as any it'll go against, Ryan has no choice but to be on top of his game today. In the first meeting, a 30-28 win on Sept. 30, Ryan tallied an impressive 369 yards, threw three touchdowns versus one interception and was sacked seven times.

That last part needs to change, and I think the Falcons are going to do a better job of protecting him in this game.

Through the deficiencies this season, Atlanta is still 11-1. It's still finding ways to win. It still found a way to clinch the NFC South title. And I think it's going to find a way to look as dominating as it was in the first quarter of the season.

Ryan has won seven of his last eight starts against the Panthers, including six straight, and I'm going to take the Falcons here to roll in Charlotte.

4♦ ATLANTA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Matt Rivers

Sunday's free play is for the Eagles-Buccaneers game to head Over the posted total.

Philadelphia has stated they will be going with quarterback Nick Foles for the remainder of the season, and in his two starts against Carolina and Dallas, both games have landed Over the total. Philly comes into Tampa Bay having played Overs in five of their last seven games. They will take on a Tampa team that has been an Over team this season.

Tampa Bay has played Overs in eight of their last nine, and nine of their dozen games overall.

With the Philly defense having allowed 30 points or more in four straight and five of their last six, I would say there is a strong chance the Bucs will make it 10-3 Over the total this season.

Points add up on the Pirate Ship this Sunday afternoon, Philadelphia-Tampa Bay Over the total.

4♦ PHILADELPHIA-TAMPA BAY OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

North Dakota +16 over NORTH DAKOTA STATE: In state teams square off in what should be a relatively tight game. North Dakota is off to a rough start at 1-5, but they haven't played all that bad of late, losing their last 3 games by 5, 1 and 3 points. In their last road game they played at South Dakota State as 19.5 point dogs and lost by just 1 point. SDS is in the summit league and projected to win that league, so North Dakota can certainly hang with the Bison which are project 3rd in that Conference. Last year North Dakota was in the Great West Conference, but have made the jump to the Big Sky this year and are projected 3rd in that conference and with 4 starters back from last years team that won 17 games, they can contend for the Big Sky Title. Don't let the 1-5 start fool ya, this is a team that is still pretty good and will have enough to keep this one close vs a Bison team that has fattened up on a weak schedule.

Canisius -5 over MARIST: Canisius has allot of revenge to get out the way this year after going 1-17 in MAAC play last year and after beating Fairfield last time out they will make it two in a row on the revenge front by taking care of a weak Marist squad. A big reason that Marist is struggling this year is due to an offense that is one of the worst in the country, putting up just 55.1 ppg (337th) on 37.1% shooting (337th). Numbers like that will not help this team keep up with the run and gun style that Canisius employs this year. That style of offense has allowed Canisius to put up 75.2 ppg (61st) on 45.3% shooting (98th). The Golden Griffins also get a huge edge at the FT Line (75.5% to 61.7%). Marist does have a slight edge on defense, but they just don't have enough scoring in them to keep this one close.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia/ Tampa bay Over 47.5: The Philadelphia defense has been worse since Juan Castillo and it doesn't look like it will get any better anytime soon. The Eagles come in having allowed 32.5 ppg in their last 6 games, which includes allowing 28 points or more in all 6 games. That is playing some bad defense. The Eagles have allowed 392 ypg overall, including 256 ypg through the air in their last 3 games and will now take on a Tampa offense that has become a high powered attack this year. The Bucs have been airing it out allot this year and they come in ranked 12th in passing (242.9 ypg), while at home they have piled up 271.8 ypg passing and 26.8 ppg. Their last 3 at home as been even more impressive as they have average 297.3 ypg passing and 28.3 ppg over that stretch. Just like the Eagles, the Bucs defense has struggled this year and has the worst passing defense in the league (309.4 ypg). In their last 3 at home the Bucs have allowed 343.8 ypg and 27.7 ppg. They will be taking on an eagles defense that has struggled this year, but Nick Foles is getting more comfortable in running the offense and they have put up 55 points in their last 2 games. Both teams should air the ball out a ton in this one and that should have us seeing at least 50 points in this one. 

3 UNIT PLAYS

Jets/ Jags Under 38: I really don't expect this game to get out of the 20's. The Jets offense has been horrible of late, scoring in single digits in 3 of their last 5 games, while averaging just 13.8 ppg over that stretch. The Jets have really looked confused all year on offense and they come in 29th overall and 28th in passing and as you have seen, their offense is getting worse as the season goes on. The Jags offense has been horrible all season as they come in ranked 31st overall, 24th in passing and 32nd in rushing, while scoring just 17.2 ppg overall. At home they have been downright putrid, putting up just 242.5 ypg and 11.3 ppg. Totally horrible. The defense has not been that good for both teams, but I just don't expect these offenses to be able to take advantage. 27 points at most here.


Atlanta/ Carolina Over 48: Theses teams have combined for at least 48 points in the last 3 meetings, including 58 points in the first meeting this year. The Atlanta offense continues to be steady as they come in averaging 26.4 ppg on the year. Their Passing offense is really clicking, having thrown for 266.7 ypg in their last 3 games. Most teams dont have great numbers on the road, but the Falcons do as they average 408 ypg overall, including 315 ypg through the air, while putting up 28.7 ppg away from home this year. The Carolina defense has been bad at home this year as they have allowed 379.3 ypg overall, 262.2 ypg through the air and 26.8 ppg on their home field this year. The Carolina offense has been pretty weak at home, but the Atlanta defense has allowed 27 ppg in their last 2 games away from and they should give up some points here as well. Just like the first game, we should see allot of balls in the air and that should lead to allot of points on the scoreboard.

2 UNIT PLAY

St Louis/ Buffalo Under 42

Tennessee +5.5 Over INDIANAPOLIS: Google New Play The Colts have been the feel good story of the year, but how much do they have left in the tank to be able to take on the lowly Titans? In the first meeting it took a late 80 yard drive by Luck to tie the game before they finally won the game in OT. The Titans are just 4-8 on the year, but this bad defense has been much better of late as they have allowed just 302.7 ypg in their last 3 games. The Colts are off a game vs the Pats and two 4th quarter comeback and they have a road date vs Houston up next. Can you say flat spot? I think this is a flat spot and it should allow the Titans to keep it close.

1 UNIT PLAY

Chicago -2.5 over MINNESOTA: Google News Play Chicago is 6-0 ATS the last 6 in the series, while the Vikes are just 4-13-3 ATS in their last 20 vs a team with a winning record and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 vs the NFC North. Couple of weeks ago the Bears won 28-10 and I that game Jay Cutler did enough to win the game, while the Bears defense did the rest. I expect that same formula here. This Minnesota offense is just not good enough to put up many points on this tough defense. Look for Cutler to have a solid game and the Bears defense to do the rest.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

Wunderdog

Siena at Manhattan
Pick: Siena +7

Siena plays tough defense and slows the pace down, allowing 58 and 62 points their last two games. Siena has a 6-8 senior in O.D. Anosike, who is a handful in the frontcourt, averaging 12.7 points and 13 boards. Manhattan is favored, but are no powerhouse team riding an 0-2 SU/ATS run despite being favored the last game, a 62-58 loss to Marist. Manhattan can't shoot as they are shooting 39% as a team and averaging just 57 ppg, so laying points with a bad offense is dangerous. The Jaspers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 0-4 ATS against a team with a losing record. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last six against the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. And when these teams meet, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Play Siena!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday December, 9

RICH SPORTS

Play New Orleans plus the points versus the New York Giants. Drew Brees is sort of a Giant-slayer. In his last two games against the Giants, he's completing 69% of his passes, thrown for over 700 yards, and has 8 TDs with no interceptions (and 1 rushing TD as well). I look for him to avenge his horrible outing in Atlanta last week and put up big numbers against a Giant defense that just got gashed by the Skins. With all of the problems the Giants have on their offensive line, losing Locklear Monday night and seeing Boothe hurt as well the Saints keep this one close and may just win it outright.


Play under the total in the Orlando versus Phoenix game. The Magic have come back to earth after winning their 1st 2 games of their west coast road trip and scoring 113 and 102 in those games. Their last 2 games have been what they have been most of the season scoring only 81 and 82 points. The Suns just are not the scoring machine they have been in the past as they have not made it to 100 in their last 7 games.

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