Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 6

Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday December, 6

DUNKEL INDEX

Denver at Oakland
The Raiders look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 meetings with Denver. Oakland is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+10 1/2)

Game 101-102: Denver at Oakland (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 133.693; Oakland 126.244
Dunkel Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+10 1/2); Under

NBA

New York at Miami 
The Heat look to take advantage of a New York team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games in Miami. Miami is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7)

Game 701-702: New York at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 120.521; Miami 129.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 8 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 202
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7); Under

Game 703-704: Dallas at Phoenix (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 111.830; Phoenix 117.705
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 199
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3); Over

NCAAB

Creighton at Nebraska     
The Blue Jays look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games against Nebraska. Creighton is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-8)

Game 705-706: Rhode Island at Providence (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 55.291; Providence 63.852
Dunkel Line: Providence by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Providence by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Providence (-6 1/2)

Game 707-708: AR-Little Rock at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Little Rock 53.802; Cincinnati 76.864
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 23
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 20
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-20)

Game 709-710: Vanderbilt at Xavier (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 60.163; Xavier 66.632
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 6 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Xavier by 12; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+12); Over

Game 711-712: Creighton at Nebraska (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 70.783; Nebraska 56.717
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 14
Vegas Line: Creighton by 8
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-8)

Game 713-714: Long Beach State at Syracuse (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 56.496; Syracuse 78.444
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 22; 136
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 20; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-20); Under

Game 715-716: UC-Santa Barbara at San Diego State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Santa Barbara 52.169; San Diego State 69.759
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-15 1/2)

Game 717-718: WI-Green Bay at Tennessee Tech (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 53.909; Tennessee Tech 52.846
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 1
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+3 1/2)

Game 719-720: Idaho at Eastern Washington (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 53.698; Eastern Washington 48.878
Dunkel Line: Idaho by 5
Vegas Line: Idaho by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (-2 1/2)

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Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Vanderbilt vs. Xavier
Pick: XavierFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This line may seem high for Xavier but I feel it is more than justified. The Musketeers are off to a 6-1 start and have played some solid teams along the way so despite losing all five starters from last season, the reloading process has worked just fine. They are shooting 52 percent from the floor including 59.1 percent in their three home games and they have five players averaging 9.7 ppg or higher including four in double-figures. Vanderbilt is off to a slow start at 2-4 and it was hammered in its lone true road game at Oregon three weeks ago. The schedule has played a part. "I regret that (early scheduling) a little bit. Seriously, I do," Vanderbilt head coach Kevin Stallings said. "I probably should have scheduled us a bunch of easy wins and maybe given us a chance to develop some confidence. I really didn't do that. We threw them into the fire. I just hope that when we come out of it that we can be better for it and not worse-off for it." But to be honest, it has not been that tough as the Commodores have yet to face a top 25 team but have still be dismantled. This team lost a ton from last season as the Commodores lost their top six scorers and to no surprise, the offense has struggled as they are averaging just 58 ppg which is 320th out of 345 Division I teams. Xavier will have a big edge down low here as Vanderbilt has no inside game to speak of. Its post players are averaging a total of only 23.1 ppg and they are getting outrebounded on the season. Vanderbilt has some shooters and that is where the scoring can come from but considering Xavier held Purdue to 0-17 from long range in its last game, the Commodores should struggle again. Expect another easy win for the Musketeers.

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Scott SpreitzerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Creighton at Nebraska
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Creighton is the real deal and anything short of an Elite-8 run for this team would be disappointing to their players and coaches alike. And while they have just one loss on the season, they are going through a transition period at the point-guard position. A few more games and it won't be an issue. But there are a couple of chinks in Creighton's armour. First of all, they do rely on Doug McDermott too much at times and if big-man Gregory Echinique gets in foul trouble, they become too passive underneath. Nebraska has the big-men to force Echinique to work and possibly get into foul trouble. Andre Almeida is a load at 6'11 & 314 pounds, and Brandon Ubel goes 6'10. The two are playing better than many expected and will cause the Jays trouble in the paint. Nebraska will also make CU play defense, especially on the perimeter, against sharp-shooting guard Ray Gallegos. Nebraska is one of 3 Big-10 teams with 3 players averaging at least 14 ppg. And even though leading scorer Dylan Talley is just 8 for 31 in his last two games, the Huskers hammered both Wake Forest and USC. Finally, as much as I like CU coach Greg McDermott, I believe new Nebraska coach Tim Miles is the better coach of the two. Creighton owns the better talent, no doubt. But the Huskers own the "tools" to ugly this one up, in my opinion, and I'm taking the points.

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Bobby ConnFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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RHODE ISLAND vs. PROVIDENCE    
PLAY: RHODE ISLAND
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Providence has won four games in a row but they have been against terrible teams so I'm not all that concerned with their recent play. Rhode Island isn't a great team by any means but have been playing teams close, covering four of their past five lined games. Providence put a 19 point beating down on Rhode Island last year and you can bet they are going to want a little taste of revenge here tonight. Take the points.

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Ray Monohan
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CREIGHTON vs. NEBRASKA    
PLAY: CREIGHTON
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The resume for the Creighton Blue Jays was damaged last week with a surprising loss to Boise State. It shows you how well thought of this team is that they only dropped to #13 in the national rankings.
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They are 7-1 and every single one of those victories has been by at least double digits. Led by POY candidate Doug McDermott they are 12 in the nation in scoring at 82ppg. Nebraska is a off to a good start at 6-1 but this team struggles to score and is only mediocre defending.
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They are getting too much respect from beating USC earlier in the week and from playing at home. Creighton is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 against in state rival NU and 5-1 ATS at Nebraska. In basketball they don’t fear big brother.

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Rob Vinciletti
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CAL SANTA BARB vs. SAN DIEGO ST    
PLAY: SAN DIEGO ST
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The Aztecs are off to another solid start at 6-1. They have a Pair of nice wins vs fellow California schools in USC and UCLA. They have won all 3 home games this season by an average 27 points per game. San Diego St has won and covered 9 of the 11 meetings with Cal Santa Barbara, including a 90-64 beat down the last time these two hooked up here. Santa Barbara is 1-11 straight up and 3-9 to the spread as a road dog from +12.5 to +15 and is 1-5 straight up and ats vs Mountain West Conference teams. They will likely bounce off their last game which was a straight up dog win at Santa Clara as a 12 point dog. Look for San Diego St to coast to a win and cover here tonight.

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Long Beach State vs Syracuse
Pick: Syracuse
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Long Beach on a long trip with a short squad. Hosts not real shy about unloading on overmatched visitors, so Syracuse minus the points tonight.

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New York Knicks vs Miami Heat
Pick: New York Knicks
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The defending champs have been overvalued, bringing a 3-6 ATS run into this week. They take on a Knicks team that has great balance and depth, with rebounding muscle to throw at the finesse Heat with Tyson Chandler and Rasheed Wallace up front. The Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games playing on no days rest. The Knicks have covered at a 2-to-1 clip this season and brought a 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS run and the Knicks are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Eastern Conference. Look for a monster effort by both teams in this battle for the top spot in the east, and a national TV showdown, and grab the dog. Play the NY Knicks.

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JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ohio / Vanderbilt Over 129.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Power Play Over = Vandy/Xavier as these 2 will hook up to the Over 129.5 later tonight ... The Oster has been on a 10-3 Cbb run the last few nights as only 2 make the ticket "Thursday Night"... 2* Barb/San State C paid play + the 5 point variance Power Play Over... The 2-4 Commes have lost a ton of good players , but they can score Xavier a solid 6-1 and they do not turn over the rock ... they are expecting a complete white out at the Cintos Center.    Coach Mack is a flat out winner @ 79- 31 mark.... Boys we will go after the Over 129.5 and $$$$$$$$$$$$ tonight.

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Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Idaho vs. Eastern Washington
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There is no such thing as slowdown as far as Eastern Washington is concerned, as the Eagles not only continue to push the pace but also fail to impede any foes on the stop end. Only twice this season has HC Jim Hayford's team allowed fewer than 80 points,  and in most games much more than that, but EWU's uptempo offense (a product of Hayford's association with mentor Bill Odell, a legendary NAIA coach at Azusa-Pacific) has been augmented by St. Joe's transfer G Justin Crosgile (14.4 ppg), Oregon transfer Martin Seifirth (9.0 ppg), and Aussie frosh F Venky Jois (13.6 ppg), all surrounding  holdover former juco Colin Chiverton (11.1 ppg), who hits 44% beyond the arc. Idaho will be drawn into the uptempo pace and this one should get into the 150s tonight at Cheney.  Play Idaho-EWU "Over"

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Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas / Phoenix Over 200FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Neither team plays much defense as both average over 100 ppg allowed on defense.  With no defense palyed it boils down to whoever is shooting better on the side play, so I am passing on line value angles here with the home team laying a 3 pointer, but I will lean to the over as these two usually result in high scoring track meet.

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SPORTS WAGERS
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OAKLAND +11 over Denver
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It’s not really going that well by the bay. The Raiders are on a five game losing streak with a defense that has yielded over 30 points in seven of their games this year. The offense has declined to where they can no longer score more than 20 points, which is problematic when the defense is handing out touchdowns like they were pamphlets on the Vegas Strip. As a result, making a case for the Raiders has its challenges. In fact, we won’t even try.
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However, we aren’t prepared to give away these points either. Home underdogs of 8 points or more have been money, covering 23 of past 24 including game two weeks ago when these visiting Broncos defeated the Chiefs by a 17-9 count as a 10-point choice. There is no denying the disparity in talent here with Denver flying high and winning seven straight but travelling to Oakland on a short week after locking up the NFC West and with a big game upcoming in Baltimore next week, we’ll side with the value. No units risked.
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New York +7½ over MIAMI
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You might remember that last year’s NBA schedule was cut down to 66 games in 122 days and the Heat went all the way. Playing well into June with games almost every night seems to have taken its toll, as Miami continues to show occasional signs of a hangover. Sure they’re 12-4 but a near loss to San Antonio minus its four top scorers, a loss to the then 1-13 Wizards, squeaking by both Milwaukee and Cleveland are just some examples of Miami’s struggles.
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No team in the NBA is more energetic and focused than these Knicks. They can’t wait to get on the court every night and unlike the Heat, they’re blowing away most of the sub .500 teams. The Knicks have had 20 point-leads in nine of their 13 wins, proving just how determined this group is. With their East leading 13 wins, New York is now being offered significant points in a game in which they will leave nothing on the table. Knicks are no fluke or flash in the pan. Their 13-4 record is warranted but giving this many points to them is not.
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Pass CBB

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Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York at MiamiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When looking at this line it looks very inflated as the Knicks have actually been just as strong as the Heat this season. But upon closer examination we find Miami off a loss (1-2 ATS in that role in 2012), and the Heat have revenge for a 104-84 loss early in the season. But has there been too much of an adjustment because of those facts? After the three previous losses for Miami the next game surpassed the posted total twice by margins of 36 and 28 1/2 points, but those were against the running teams of Denver and Houston. The other game went under by 11 1/2 points against Denver again. So after all three losses the Heat faced a high pace opponent. New York is in the bottom four in the league in pace. Therefore the Heat likely won't be able to run and get easy baskets. Therefore we go back to our original assessment that this line is inflated and back the Knicks.

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Andrew LangeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Vanderbilt at Xavier
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Vanderbilt is in an obvious rebuilding year and as a result we've seen a dramatic change in style. The Commodores have really struggled to score and have no choice but to try and slow down the pace of their games. Their last four contests have featured 62, 60, 62, and 62 possessions. Bottom line is Vanderbilt is not going to win any games by outscoring the competition. Xavier too went through a lot of offseason transformation and as a result isn't comfortable playing at the pace of previous editions. The Musketeers played a few moderate scoring affairs on neutral courts but I looked to home games against Butler and Robert Morris as a better indication of how this team will play tonight. Against the Bulldogs, Xavier grinded out a 62-47 win with only 57 possessions. Against Robert Morris, a similar result with a 61-59 win and only 59 possessions. Last time out against Purdue, it was another ugly affair with only 120 points. Even with all the offensive weapons both teams had last year, there were only 132 points at the end of regulation (Xavier won in OT, 82-70). Play this one UNDER the total.

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WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Vanderbilt at XavierFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: VanderbiltFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It has been a struggle thus far for the Vanderbilt Commodores. It wasn't expected to be easy after sending their three top players from a year ago to the NBA. Xavier is in a similar situation as they have started over, with all five of last year's starters having completed their eligibility. Xavier is off to a better start at 6-1 on the season, but none of their last four wins have come by more than 6 points. Vanderbilt has to rely on shortening games, and playing strong on the defensive end to get by this season. With Vanderbilt’s need for shortening the game, this pointspread becomes a tower to topple. Vanderbilt is also 9-1 ATS since last season on the road vs. great defensive teams (those averaging under 65 points per game). And, under head coach Kevin Stallings, the Commodores are 29-16 ATS after an upset loss. There are too many points here, so take them and play on Vanderbilt.

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Charlie Sports

Long Beach St at Syracuse
Play: Syracuse

The (3-4) Long Beach State 49ers of the Big West Conference will take on the (6-0) and 4th ranked Syracuse Orange of the Big East Conference in 2012 NCAA Basketball action. The teams last played in 2008 and Syracuse won 79-55. The 49ers have covered 2 of their the last 3 Against The Spread. The Orange is 4-0 ATS so far this season. Syracuse gets the home cover.

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John Ryan
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Arkansas Little Rock at Cincinnati
Prediction: CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game by 24 or more points. Arkansas-LR is in a bit of a bind here knowing they are playing up to some of the best competition in the nation. Moreover, their head coach Shields is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more. Arkansas is coming off a 91-30 win over St. Gregorys. Having a meaningless game before one where the competition is monumentally tougher is nearly impossible to prepare for. The Bearcats are already tested this season and will look to get out fast in this game and take any hope right out of the hearts of the Arkansas -LR team. Cincinnati ranks fifth in the nation averaging 82.7 points per game and will be matched up against an Arkansas defense that ranks 114th in the nation allowing 64 PPG. Making matters worse for Arkansas is that Cincinnati ranks best in the nation averaging 49.0 rebounds per game. This ensures that the Bearcats will minimize Arkansas? second chance scoring opportunities with sound defensive rebounding. Little Rock ranks 125th getting just 11.0 offensive boards per game and will have far less than that in this game. Take Cincinnati.

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Larry Ness
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UC Santa Barbara vs. San Diego St.
Pick: San Diego St.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UC-Santa Barbara (Big West) has played in the NCAA Tournament TWO of the last three years. However, three senior starters are gone from last year’s group, 6-5 guard Johnson (19.7-5.8), 6-7 swingman Nunnally (16.0-5.8) and the 6-9 Serna (9.0-5.0). Those are HUGE loses and while head coach Bob Williams is now the program's all-time leader in wins with 237 entering his 15th season, this is clearly a rebuilding season. Guard Kyle Boswell (7.5) and the 6-7 Alan Williams (6.9)-9.6) were the top returning scorers. Williams has had a breakout season, averaging 16.1 PPG and 9.6 RPG while Boswell chips in 9.3 PPG. An excellent ‘find’ has been 6-8 freshman Brown, who is averaging 13.6-6.4 but the 3-4 Gauchos are overmatched here vs Steve Fisher’s 17th-ranked Aztecs.
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Coming off a couple of hard-fought victories over USC and UCLA, San Diego State jumped out to a 34-16 first-half lead over Texas Southern at home Monday but played uninspired ball the rest of the way, winning 74-62. However, it still represented the team's SIXTH straight win since opening the season with a 62-49 loss to fourth-ranked Syracuse on the flight deck of the USS Midway. SDSU returned four starters from last year, including MWC player-of-the-year, the 6-5 Jamaal Franklin (19.9-10.7). Tapley (12.0-4.3), Thames (9.7) and Rahon (7.4) are all guards, with Rahon currently coming off the bench. The 6-8 Stephens (7.7-5.7) is posting the best numbers of his career plus two transfers, the 6-7 O’Brien (4.7-3.7) from Utah, and the 6-7 Polee (3.9-2.7) from St John’s, are already making ‘waves.’ The Aztecs needed overtime in last season's 76-75 road win over the Gauchos but this UC-Santa Barbara team is not of the same quality. San Diego State has won its last three home meetings with UCSB by an average of 18.4 PPG. The Aztecs are protecting two impressive streaks in this game. The first is they have won 22 straight games in December and the other is they’ve won 26 straight against rival California schools. Both streaks get extended tonight, with “room to spare!” Lay it.

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Jeff Scott Sports
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MIAMI -7 over New York Knicks: Ok so Miami lost to the Wizards the Other night. They were really just looking ahead to this one.  This is a big revenge game for the Heat after they were embarrassed by 20 points earlier in the year at New York. The Loss to the Wizards just gives them even more fuel for the fire. Miami is 8-0 at home on the year and have outscored those teams by 11.2 ppg. For the Knicks they have been a surprise this year, and are a solid 6-4 on the road, but this is a bad spot for them and they are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 here, losing each game by DD. They could also have a less than 100% Melo who has 6 stitches on his left middle finger. That has to affect his shot. Miami will be all over the Knicks as they look to show who is truly the best team in the East. 
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Phoenix/ Dallas Over 202:  Both teams average right around 100 points for the year, but it has been the defense that has been a problem for both teams of late. Dallas comes in having given up 100+ points in 6 of their last 7 games and they have allowed 104.3 ppg in their last 3 games on the road. Phoenix also has allowed 100+ points in 6 of their last 7 games and have given up 108 ppg overall in their last 4 games. In their last home game the Suns allowed the offensively challenged Hornets to put up 108 points on them. Phoenix team president Jason Rowley has guaranteed an exciting game tonight or the fans will get a refund and that should mean an up and down fast paced game with about 210 points being scored.

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Jeff Scott Sports
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Denver/ Oakland Over 48.5: The Raiders have been a weak running team, this year and it wont get better vs a solid Denver run defense, which means that Palmer will have toi air it out plenty in this one. Carson has thrown for 300+ yards 7 times this year and will be facing a Denver Defense that is a bit beat up in their secondary (Porter is questionable). Overall the Raiders offense has averaged just 19.6 ppg, but at home they have put up 23.3 ppg and should be good for at least that in this one. The Bronco offense has been clicking all year and will take aim at an Oakland defense that is 28th overall and 25th vs the pass. at home the Raider defense has allowed a whopping 29.3 ppg, while the Broncos put up 26.8 ppg on the road. Raider home games have averaged 52.6 ppg this year and i see at least that much in this one as well.

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