Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

DUNKEL INDEX

New Orleans at Atlanta
The Falcons look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 Thursday games. Atlanta is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2)

Game 301-302: New Orleans at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.547; Atlanta 138.869
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2); Under

NCAA

Louisville at Rutgers
The Cardinals look to bounce back from their 23-20 loss to Connecticut and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU defeat.  Louisville is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 3.  Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+3)

Game 303-304: Louisville at Rutgers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 91.678; Rutgers 88.720
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 3; 47
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+3); Over

NBA

San Antonio at Miami
The Spurs look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 road games. San Antonio is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+6 1/2).

Game 501-502: San Antonio at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 126.910; Miami 127.015
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+6 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Denver at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.146; Golden State 116.628
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 1 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-1 1/2); Over

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Marquette at Florida     
The Golden Eagles look to follow up their 79-46 win over UMBC and build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU victory of more than 20 points. Marquette is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Gators favored by only 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Marquette (+10)

Game 505-506: Kentucky at Notre Dame (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 76.202; Notre Dame 68.649
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 7 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 1 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+1); Over

Game 507-508: South Alabama at Florida Atlantic (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 52.860; Florida Atlantic 47.141
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 3
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-3)

Game 509-510: Troy at AR-Little Rock (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 46.168; AR-Little Rock 58.553
Dunkel Line: AR-Little Rock by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: AR-Little Rock by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: AR-Little Rock (-10 1/2)

Game 511-512: Arkansas State at Florida International (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 56.198; Florida International 47.728
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 8 1/2 
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-4)

Game 513-514: South Carolina at St. John's (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 53.966; St. John's 62.755
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 9; 132
Vegas Line: St. John's by 8 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (-8 1/2); Under

Game 515-516: Middle Tennessee State at UL-Lafayette (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 64.845; UL-Lafayette 54.344
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-7 1/2)

Game 517-518: Western Kentucky at UL-Monroe (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 58.911; UL-Monroe 47.436
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-10 1/2)

Game 519-520: Marquette at Florida (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 67.058; Florida 75.780
Dunkel Line: Florida by 8 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Florida by 10; 137
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (+10); Under

Game 521-522: Seton Hall at LSU (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 61.681; LSU 66.275
Dunkel Line: LSU by 4 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: LSU by 4; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-4); Under

Game 523-524: TX-San Antonio at Oregon (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 51.002; Oregon 73.330
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Oregon by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-15 1/2)

Game 525-526: Long Beach State at Loyola-Marymount (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 58.592; Loyola-Marymount 57.974
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 1
Vegas Line: Loyola-Marymount by 2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+2)

Game 527-528: Manhattan at Fordham (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 51.804; Fordham 44.046
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 8
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 6
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-6)

Game 529-530: LaSalle at Rider (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 57.838; Rider 52.464
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (-2 1/2)

Game 531-532: Western Illinois at South Dakota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 57.754; South Dakota 50.906
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 7
Vegas Line: Western Illinois by 3
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (-3)

Game 533-534: IUPUI at UMKC (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 50.024; UMKC 47.032
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 3
Vegas Line: UMKC by 1
Dunkel Pick: IUPUI (+1)

Game 535-536: NE-Omaha at North Dakota State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NE-Omaha 37.313; North Dakota State 60.696
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-20 1/2)

Game 537-538: Southern Utah at TCU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 43.602; TCU 56.910
Dunkel Line: TCU by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: TCU by 10
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-10)

Game 539-540: Tennessee-Martin at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 42.968; Memphis 65.642
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 25 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee-Martin (+25 1/2)

Game 541-542: Pepperdine at Montana State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 50.679; Montana State 50.746
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Montana State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (+2 1/2)

Game 761-762: Ohio State at Duke (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 72.263; Duke 80.446
Dunkel Line: Duke by 8; 139
Vegas Line: Duke by 6; 142
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-6); Under

Game 763-764: Wyoming at UC-Santa Barbara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 57.785; UC-Santa Barbara 55.154
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming

Game 765-766: Idaho at Washington State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 54.101; Washington State 64.370
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (-6 1/2)

Game 767-768: UC Davis at Nevada (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC Davis 44.514; Nevada 55.822
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Nevada by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC Davis (+12 1/2)

Game 769-770: UC-Irvine at UNLV (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 51.612; UNLV 72.431
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 21
Vegas Line: UNLV by 15
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-15)

Game 771-772: Seattle at Stanford (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 50.798; Stanford 70.453
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 19 1/2
Vegas Line:  Stanford by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+20 1/2)

Game 773-774: Utah State at Santa Clara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 58.909; Santa Clara 60.277
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 7
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+7)

Game 775-776: St. Louis at Washington (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 63.403; Washington 69.900
Dunkel Line: Washington by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 3
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3)

Game 777-778: CS-Northridge at UCLA (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 54.548; UCLA 65.865
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (+14 1/2)

Game 779-780: Morehead State at Marshall (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 50.276; Marshall 64.359
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 14
Vegas Line: Marshall by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-11 1/2)

Game 781-782: Duquesne at Appalachian State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 51.294; Appalachian State 49.386
Dunkel Line: Duquesne by 2
Vegas Line: Duquesne by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (+3 1/2)

Game 783-784: Weber State at Dayton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 51.330; Dayton 66.171
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 15
Vegas Line: Dayton by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-13 1/2)

Game 785-786: Elon at Georgia Southern (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 51.094; Georgia Southern 51.432
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 1
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+1)

Game 787-788: Western Carolina at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 50.700; Furman 52.708
Dunkel Line: Furman by 2
Vegas Line: Furman by 1
Dunkel Pick: Furman (-1)

Game 789-790: Niagara at Iona (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 49.871; Iona 63.115
Dunkel Line: Iona by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-8 1/2)

Game 791-792: Massachusetts at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 56.775; Siena 51.825
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 5
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 7
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+7)

Game 793-794: North Dakota at South Dakota State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 45.789; South Dakota State 65.054
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 18
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (-18)

Game 795-796: Tennessee Tech at Loyola-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 48.846; Loyola-Chicago 51.276
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+4 1/2)

Game 797-798: Montana at BYU (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 58.543; BYU 66.468
Dunkel Line: BYU by 8
Vegas Line: BYU by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+9 1/2)

Game 799-800: Northern Arizona at Arizona (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 42.110; Arizona 68.183
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 26
Vegas Line: Arizona by 25
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-25)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Jim Feist

Nuggets vs. Warriors    
Play: Over

A pair of uptempo teams as Denver plays at Golden State. Denver is running and gunning again, 10th in the NBA in point scored. But this defense is not always stellar, as in the last game giving up 105 points in a loss at Utah. The over is 5-1 in the Nuggets last 6 road games. Golden state is 18th in the NBA in points scored, another young team that likes to run. The over is 7-3 in the Warriors last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. And when these teams meet the over is 15-5 in the last 20 meetings in Golden State. Play the Nuggets/Warriors over the total.

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Ryan JamesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville vs. Rutgers    
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The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games compared to a 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games for the Louisville Cardinals. Louisville is also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on field turf. The Cardinals can't match up to the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers wins this game in a blowout.

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Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rutgers/ Louisville Under 43.5: Have to go with the Under here, especially with one of the teams being Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are a team that plays close to the vest. They don't have allot of offense but their defense is strong so they play the field position game. for the year Rutger games have averaged just 36.6 ppg, while their last 3 games have averaged a mere 27 points. The Rutger offense is ranked 102nd in the nation, while their defense is one of the better allowing 314 ypg which is 14th in the nation and they have also allowed just 13.7 ppg, which is 4th. The Cardinal offense has been very good and it is led by Teddy Bridgewater, but this Rutger defense is just too tough to think they will give up much here, especially after struggling vs Pitt last week and especially since this game is so huge. They will bring their defense in this one. The Cardinal defense is no slouch, ranking 26th overall and 14th vs the pass. They have allowed 24.5 ppg, but Rutgers doesn't have the offense to come close to that number. I look for both teams to have trouble moving the ball on these defenses as this one hits the mid 30's at best.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Bruce Marshall
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Middle Tennessee St. vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
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Sun Belt sources have indicated that Bob Marlin's Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are a bit better than their 2-4 record indicates, having been in tough during the early portion of the schedule.  A near-miss at Michigan State in ULL's last outing suggests the scouts are on the money, and Marlin's team can be very disruptive, forcing 19 TOs per game.  Meanwhile, 6'9 Mississippi State transfer Shawn Long (15.2 ppg) has emerged as a legit go-to threat on the blocks.  MTSU is dangerous, but there is real value in this price on the side of the Ragin' Cajuns (who are 2-0 at home).  Blue Raider HC Kermit Davis would be thrilled to get out of Lafayette with a narrow win.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

David Chan
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Denver vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State
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Denver is 8-7 SU and 10-5 ATS; on the 26th it lost 105-103 at Utah as a 3 point underdog. That loss snapped a four game win streak, and I believe this team will stumble again here. Despite the quick start for bettors this season, it's significant to note that Denver is in fact just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 when playing with two days of rest.
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Golden State is 8-6 SU and 8-5-1 ATS; last time out it beat Minnesota 96-85 as a 3 point favorite.
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To say the "revenge factor" comes into play here would be an understatement, as Denver has taken 11 of the last 14 in the series, including the last three straight. And that includes both games so far this season, most recently a 102-91 setback for Golden State on Friday.
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The Warriors bounced back with the win over the Wolves though; Stephen Curry had 20 points while going 5 of 10 from 3 point range.
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Klay Thompson had a season-high 24 points.
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Note that Golden State is 4-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year, and 4-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.
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The Warriors have been almost unstoppable at home this season, due in large part to a very improved defensive unit which has given up an average of just 88.7 PPG during their three-game home win streak.
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With a game at the Lakers tomorrow night for Denver, I believe the door is wide open for the Warriors to exact a little revenge; consider a second look at Golden State in this one!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Rob Vinciletti
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Nuggets vs. Warriors
Play: Under 198½
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This game fits a nice totals System that has won 16 of 20 times and plays to the under for road favorites like Denver at -4 or less that scored 100 or more as a road dog of 4 or less in their last game, vs an opponent that scored 90 or more as a home favorite of 4 or less in their last game, Like Golden State. The Nuggets have stayed under in 12 of the last 16 when playsing on 2 days rest and in the series 5 of the last 8 have played under. Look for this game to follow suit.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Ray Monohan
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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons    
Play: New Orleans Saints +3.5
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The Saints are still desperate for wins with a shot at making the playoffs. We know that this team loves to play indoors and can score on anyone. Sure there might be a revenge factor for the Falcons but they have such a big lead in the AFC South motivation might be low even though this is a pretty good rivalry.
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Look for an up and down contest with whoever has the ball left winning it. By the way the Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 division games and 4-0 ATS in their last few games against Atlanta.
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All signs point to backing the underdog.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Dave Cokin
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Kentucky vs Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame
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Kentucky is going to be very good in time, but the Wildcats are not there yet. Fortunately, the perception is better than the actual right now, and that means there's value to be had fading the 'Cats in select spots. I see this as one of those types and I give Notre Dame the edge tonight.

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SPORTS WAGERS
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Marquette +10½ -106 over FLORIDA
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The Gators are among the elite teams in the nation and come March, this group should be in position to make a deep run in the tournament. Florida’s thrashing over #22 Wisconsin back on November 14 may have been the most impressive performance by any team this season. However, the Gators get young in a hurry when they turn to the bench.  They’re also an average shooting team and they’re not going to continue to blow out good clubs. Marquette would be such a club.
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The Golden Eagles are a top-20 team. They played in the consolation bracket of the Maui Invitational because Butler's Rotnei Clarke hit a crazy shot to win the opening game (one that was well defended). But for that shot, it would have been Marquette playing Illinois for the title. The Golden Eagles have good guards, a stud in Davante Gardner and an emerging star in Vander Blue. This is simply too much wood to be spotting such a good shooting team with few flaws.
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South Carolina +8 -103 over ST. JOHN’S
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St. John’s comes in with a 4-0 home record but all four wins were against weak competition in Detroit, Charleston, Holy Cross and Florida Gulf Coast. Against Murray State, on a neutral floor, the Johnnies lost by five and two nights later they lost by 19 on a neutral floor to Baylor. The Red Storm took a big step backwards last year and they have many roster issues, leaving them unstable in key areas, especially on the boards where they rank 240th after six games.
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South Carolina was a pushover in the SEC last year with just two wins in conference play and that has them under the radar this year. Wins this season over some non-descript teams has not elevated their status. Enter Frank Martin as USC’s new head coach. Martin was fantastic in five seasons at Kansas State, leading the Wildcats to a 117-54 record and four NCAA Tournament appearances. He’s 5-1 this year and has several key pieces in place to at least offer some hope of improvement. Eight players return to the rotation and the coach is working diligently with the entire group to get them to believe in themselves and the system. The Gamecocks can stay well within this range and possibly win outright against a very mediocre Red Storm.

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New Orleans +3½ -105 over ATLANTA
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Just when a three-game winning streak made it all seem in reach, the 49ers showed up with a reminder that the Saints are not there yet. However, this isn’t the 49ers. Atlanta continues to win games but not by enough to appease their money-backers. Atlanta has won three of its last four by a combined 10 points. In between, the Falcs suffered their lone loss on the year to these Saints. While Atlanta will look to exact revenge for that one, it will be easier said than done.
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The Saints are still on the cusp of a playoff spot. They know this opponent well and with New Orleans’ high octane offense, they can win this game straight up. The Saints’ rushing game is becoming more of a factor, which is opening up the passing game for their elite QB. Saints have covered six of past seven versus divisional opponents. No units risked.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Jeff Scott Sports
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3 UNIT PLAY
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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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San Antonio/ Miami Under 204:  The Spurs are playing their 4th game in 5 nights and 6th in a row on the road, so I cannot see them wanting to get into a running game with the well-rested Heat, who have had 4 days off. Extra rest like that may also hurt the Heat and I expect them to come out a bit flat and rusty. The Spurs have played good defense this year as always, allowing 95.1 ppg overall and 96.2 ppg on the road. The Miami defense has not been that good this year, but they have been working on that during their break and I expect o solid showing from then at that end of the floor in this one. The Under is 7-2-1 in Miami’s last 10 on Thursday’s, while the Under is 9-3 in San Antonio’s last 12 vs a team with a winning record, plus we note that the Under is 19-4 in the last 23 meetings between these teams. I look for a game in the 190’s at best here.  POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Under is 16-4 in Miami's last 20 games vs a team with a winning record.
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Some Key Trends and Angle for Tonight's Games.
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San Antonio--- The Spurs are 9-0 ATS when playing their 4th game in 5 days, since Jan 2012, 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games with no rest, and 12-0 ATS in their last 12 road games following a game in which they were whistled for less than 15 fouls, but they are also 0-6 in their last 6 games vs a .600 or better team. We also note that the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 Thursday games.
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Miami--- The Heat are 8-0 ATS since Jan 2011 as a favorite with two or more days of rest after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, but also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a winning record.
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Denver--- The Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 road games, and 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, but the Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest, and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with the Warriors.
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Golden State--- The Warriors are 8-0 Over since Jan 2007 with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line and 8-0 Over since Feb 2010 at home as a dog after losing the previous matchup in which Stephen Curry played fewer than 30 minutes, but the Under is 13-4 in their last 17 vs. NBA Northwest and 23-8-1 in their last 32 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Larry NessFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kentucky vs. Notre Dame
Pick: Notre DameFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana has opted out of its annual game against Kentucky and the Wildcats are happy to replace them with the Fighting Irish. In fact, this matchup used to be an early-season staple in Louisville several decades ago, featuring some memorable battles between legendary coaches Johnny Dee of Notre Dame and Adolph Rup of Kentucky. Both schools come in with one loss, Kentucky is 4-1 and ranked 8th, the Irish 6-1 but unranked. These two squads offer quite a dichotomy as Notre Dame has five starters back from last year's 22-win team, two seniors (including sixth-year player Scott Martin), two juniors and a sophomore. Meanwhile, the current state of Kentucky hoops is known for coach John Calipari's acceptance of one-and-done players and he’s expected to start three freshmen, a sophomore and a transfer. The Wildcats lost SIX players from last year's national championship team, which saw four players drafted in the first round and two more in the second round. The Irish start the 6-9 Cooley (14.3-11.3) and the 6-8 Martin (8.2-8.0) up front with guards Grant (13.0-4.7 APG) and Atkins (10.3-3.365.7) plus 6-5 swingman Connaughton (8.0-4.3-2.9) on the perimeter. The 6-10 Sherman (11.0-4.9), a transfer from Michigan St, is the team's best contributor off the bench. Kentucky’s three starting freshman are guard Goodwin (19.0-5.2-4.4), the 6-7 Poythrees (18.4-7.4) and the 6-10 Noel (12.4-8.6). Mays (9.9-4.4 APG) is the NC St transfer at PG and the 6-10 Wiltjer (12.6-4.2) is back for his sophomore season (Kentucky calls sophs “upper classmen”) and playing well. The 7-0 Cauley-Stein (8.0-4.4) is another important freshman and this Kentucky team is likely to be very dangerous again, come March. Calipari has a tough challenge with young team vs a Notre Dame group which has the experience and familiarity to execute in the half court and on the defensive end. Kentucky’s lone loss came Nov 13 in Atlanta vs a Duke team with vets like guard Curry plus big men Plumlee and Kelly. Notre Dame is 40-1 in its last 41 home games and 105-7 at home overall since the start of the 2006-07 season. Some home cookin’ helps the Irish get “lucky” and win here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Jack Jones
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Denver Nuggets -1.5
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The Denver Nuggets have been rolling of late, which is why they are showing solid value tonight against the Golden State Warriors as only a 1.5-point favorite. They have gone an amazing 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games. Coming off a 2-point loss at Utah, this team will be hungry to get back in the win column tonight.
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Denver has won three straight and 11 of its last 14 meetings with Golden State. That includes a 102-91 home victory in their first meeting of the season on November 23rd. The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Warriors, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Golden State.
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The Nuggets are 17-4 ATS in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 44-20 ATS in its last 64 road games overall. The Nuggets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. The Warriors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Nuggets Thursday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kentucky at Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame -130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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John Calipari has put together some powerful teams with "one and done" high-end recruits. While he has done so again this year, he is missing some key upperclassmen ingredients and the pieces are coming together much slower. There are a lot of physical similarities between former Notre Dame star Luke Harangody, and Jack Cooley. What is happening now is that Cooley is starting to play like Harangody, averaging 14.3 points per game and 11.3 rebounds per game. The Irish have seven players that are all contributing significantly, so they can go to the bench seamlessly. The Wildcats are playing well below expectations. Although they are 4-1 they have yet to cover a game, standing at just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 out-of conference tilts including 0-4 ATS vs. the Big East. Play Notre Dame on the moneyline.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Steve Janus
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Miami Heat -5.5
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The Miami Heat should have no trouble beating the Spurs by at least 6 points in tonight's showdown on TNT. The Heat will be playing their first game in five days, while the Spurs are playing the second of a back-to-back set and their fourth road game in the last five days.
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San Antonio may be able to keep up with Miami in the first half, but those tired legs will start to show over the final 24 minutes of this game. The last two visits to Miami have been ugly for San Antonio. They lost 110-80 in March of 2011 and 120-98 in their most recent visit last January.
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Miami is a perfect 6-0 at home this season and are 15-4 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last two seasons and 15-5 ATS in home games off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Jimmy Boyd
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Miami Heat -5.5
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The Heat get the call as my free play tonight because of the advantage they have in terms of freshness and preparation.
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The Heat have had four days to rest their legs up and to prepare for San Antonio. The Spurs will be playing their second game in as many nights and their fourth in five nights. That's no easy stretch for any team, let alone an older team. The Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.
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The Spurs have been playing well but have been doing the majority of their damage against lesser competition. They are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team that has a winner record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team that has a winning percentage greater than .600. The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage that's greater than .600 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall versus teams with a winning percentage above .600.
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It is also worth noting that the Heat are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday primetime games.
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The Heat have buried the Spurs by 30 and 22 points the last two times they've visited. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

John Ryan

Western Kentucky at Louisiana Monroe
Prediction: Western Kentucky

The simulator shows a high probability that WK will win this game by 12 or more points. They return four starters on this year?s edition and the that playing experience and chemistry is a huge advantage when facing an inferior foe in a rebuilding year with just one returning starter. Supporting this graded play further is a proven system posting a 40-13 ATS for 76% winners since 1997. Play against dogs of 10 to 19.5 points that is a poor shooting team from last season that made <=42% of their shot attempts and with just one or fewer starters returning from last year and with the current game being on of the first 10 games of the season. This underscores the chemistry advantage that a seasoned team with four or five returning starters has over a team that was struggling last year and now has to rebuild in the current season. Take Western Kentucky.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 29

Carolina Sports

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: New Orleans Saints   

Both defenses are about the same as they stink. Don't be fooled by Atlanta allowing 19.6-ppg. They are allowing 4.8-ypr vs teams that offensively are 4.2-ypr. We all know New Orleans defensive stinks so it is the team who has the ball will probably win. The Saints getting the 3.5 is worth the look for a free pick as they are the more desperate team.

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