Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 27

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 27

Jordan Runco

NORTH CAROLINA vs. INDIANA    
PLAY: INDIANA

The North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 112-70 win over Chaminade in the Maui Invitational. Indiana (6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) is coming off a 101-53 win over Ball State at home as a 27.5 point favorite. The #13 Tar Heels visit Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Ind. on Tuesday night to visit #1 Syracuse at 9:30pmET in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge.

ODDS: The oddsmakers have installed Indiana as a 10-point favorite over North Carolina.

LINE MOVEMENT: The Hoosiers opened as a 7.5-point favorite and moved up to 10 in most books.

COLLEGE HOOPS FREE PICK: Take Indiana over North Carolina. According to the latest trends: UNC is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game and are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

The Tar Heels lost Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall and John Henson to the NBA. That's four All-Conference players. They didn't win the Maui Invitational because they lost to Butler, 82-71 as a 9-point favorite in a game that wasn't even that close. Indiana is led by Cody Zeller (Tyler's younger but better brother) and a collection of very good players. He averages 15.2ppg and 7.7rpg, while Christian Watford adds 13.2ppg and 8rpg. The guard play is excellent, they have good size and depth and as long as they stay healthy, the Hoosiers should be back in the Final Four. The Heels are rebuilding this year.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 27

Jeff Alexander

Indiana Pacers +8

The Lakers are consistently one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA. They are especially overvalued following a win and against teams that have losing records. As a result, they are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a win and 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Pacers.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 27

Kelso

Illinois Chicago vs Northern Illinois
Pick: Illinois Chicago

Kelso's Free Pick today in College Basketball features a program near the bottom facing an opponent with nearly all the edges. Look for an easy Win. The folks in DeKalb considered it progress last year when the Huskies went 5-26 and that speaks volumes about the Northern Illinois program. The bottom line says it still remains close to rock-bottom among the mid-majors and is one of the three or four youngest college teams in that category. The futility is vividly illustrated by the Huskies 1-3 record. Northern Illinois scored its lone win of the season at home against Judson College, while losing there in its last game to Loyola-Illinois, 53-46. It opened the season with losses at Nebraska-Omaha, 77-64, and at Valparaiso, 69-46. Illinois-Chicago returns four starters from last year’s rebuilding 8-22 team and has every edge but the home court in this one—and the figures say that won’t be difficult to overcome.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 27

Joe Gavazzi

Nebraska +5

Third year HC Bzdelik and first year NE mentor Miles will be residing in the basement of their respective leagues. The talent is clearly not there. In this matchup, I favor the coaching of Miles, who did a fantastic job in reviving Colorado St fortunes in previous recent seasons. He parlayed 39 wins the last two seasons with the Rams to this higher profile job. It has already paid off with victories against respected sides Valpo and Tulane. Wake has yet to post a quality win, and barely squeezed by the Boys and the Girls on the 23rd. Try defensively tenacious NE as underdog.

Iowa +1½

In this contest, I am siding with the better team and the more established program as underdog. Veteran third year Iowa HC McCaffery has now instilled his concepts in a team of mostly his players. Behind a guard tandem of Marble and Gessell, the Hawkeyes are miles ahead on the perimeter of this VA Tech team who returns just 2 RS and is looking to adjust to the ways of new HC Johnson (former Tech assistant). More impressed with Hawkeyes early season wins against underrated Gardner Webb and Western Kentucky, than Tech's wins against re-loading Rhode Island and NC Green. Try the dog here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 27

Alf Musketa 

Toronto at Houston
Play: Under

Most of my NBA handicapping time is spent analyzing team matchups and projecting how many points they will score and surrender against their next opponent and thus I have a total to work with versus the betting line. I don't do too much work subjectively with the NBA rosters and use current stats for the bulk of my breakdown.
 
In my opinion the totals line for this game tonight between Toronto and Houston is too high for several reasons. Houston in their last game poured in 131 points against the Knicks and gives us some line value here.  Also, the Knicks were clearly lackluster, tired, on the third and last road game of a four-day road game trip, and it was their sixth road game in 10 days. The Rockets couldn't miss a shot it seemed hitting 52 percent from the field, 56 percent from three-point range and they got to the charity stripe 28 times that resulted in 25 free throw points. The totals line on that game was 198, which versus the high scoring Knicks was too low. Now against Toronto, who has yet to have a betting total line above 197 this entire season, we see a total of more than 200.
 
Toronto hasn't scored 100 points in regulation in seven games. Their last game and team total of 106 versus San Antonio was in double overtime – they only produced 86 points in four quarters. A key to the Raptors success this season is and will be the acquisition of guard Kyle Lowry from Houston. Lowry returns to play against his former team and I project the Rockets will keep him in check and this should help our play on the UNDER.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 27

Nelly

Raptors / Rockets Over

Both of these teams have allowed over 100 points per game and over 44 percent shooting on the season and this is likely to be higher scoring game Tuesday night. The Rockets have not played since Friday and while this is a trying time with Kevin McHale's daughter passing away the team should be focused and united. They have been playing under assistant coach Kelvin Sampson for the last eight games, going 4-4 and scoring almost 106 points per game in that stretch. In five of eight games Houston has allowed triple-digits however as this has been a struggling defensive team. The Raptors are on track to be one of the worst teams in the NBA with a 3-11 start to the season and a 1-7 road team. Toronto has allowed over 101 points per game on average in the last 10 games and this is a challenging set-up with a sixth road game in the last eight contests. The home team has won 10 consecutive games in this series, scoring triple-digits in six of the last seven meetings with the winning team reaching 114 points in three of the last four meetings. Houston is not a particularly deep team which makes the added rest important for this game so the Rockets should be well positioned for a good offensive game which should help this game reach higher-scoring numbers.

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