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Jordan Runco

NORTH CAROLINA vs. INDIANA    
PLAY: INDIANA

The North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) are coming off a 112-70 win over Chaminade in the Maui Invitational. Indiana (6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) is coming off a 101-53 win over Ball State at home as a 27.5 point favorite. The #13 Tar Heels visit Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Ind. on Tuesday night to visit #1 Syracuse at 9:30pmET in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge.

ODDS: The oddsmakers have installed Indiana as a 10-point favorite over North Carolina.

LINE MOVEMENT: The Hoosiers opened as a 7.5-point favorite and moved up to 10 in most books.

COLLEGE HOOPS FREE PICK: Take Indiana over North Carolina. According to the latest trends: UNC is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game and are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

The Tar Heels lost Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall and John Henson to the NBA. That's four All-Conference players. They didn't win the Maui Invitational because they lost to Butler, 82-71 as a 9-point favorite in a game that wasn't even that close. Indiana is led by Cody Zeller (Tyler's younger but better brother) and a collection of very good players. He averages 15.2ppg and 7.7rpg, while Christian Watford adds 13.2ppg and 8rpg. The guard play is excellent, they have good size and depth and as long as they stay healthy, the Hoosiers should be back in the Final Four. The Heels are rebuilding this year.

Kelso

Illinois Chicago vs Northern Illinois
Pick: Illinois Chicago

Kelso's Free Pick today in College Basketball features a program near the bottom facing an opponent with nearly all the edges. Look for an easy Win. The folks in DeKalb considered it progress last year when the Huskies went 5-26 and that speaks volumes about the Northern Illinois program. The bottom line says it still remains close to rock-bottom among the mid-majors and is one of the three or four youngest college teams in that category. The futility is vividly illustrated by the Huskies 1-3 record. Northern Illinois scored its lone win of the season at home against Judson College, while losing there in its last game to Loyola-Illinois, 53-46. It opened the season with losses at Nebraska-Omaha, 77-64, and at Valparaiso, 69-46. Illinois-Chicago returns four starters from last year’s rebuilding 8-22 team and has every edge but the home court in this one—and the figures say that won’t be difficult to overcome.

Alf Musketa 

Toronto at Houston
Play: Under

Most of my NBA handicapping time is spent analyzing team matchups and projecting how many points they will score and surrender against their next opponent and thus I have a total to work with versus the betting line. I don't do too much work subjectively with the NBA rosters and use current stats for the bulk of my breakdown.
 
In my opinion the totals line for this game tonight between Toronto and Houston is too high for several reasons. Houston in their last game poured in 131 points against the Knicks and gives us some line value here.  Also, the Knicks were clearly lackluster, tired, on the third and last road game of a four-day road game trip, and it was their sixth road game in 10 days. The Rockets couldn't miss a shot it seemed hitting 52 percent from the field, 56 percent from three-point range and they got to the charity stripe 28 times that resulted in 25 free throw points. The totals line on that game was 198, which versus the high scoring Knicks was too low. Now against Toronto, who has yet to have a betting total line above 197 this entire season, we see a total of more than 200.
 
Toronto hasn't scored 100 points in regulation in seven games. Their last game and team total of 106 versus San Antonio was in double overtime – they only produced 86 points in four quarters. A key to the Raptors success this season is and will be the acquisition of guard Kyle Lowry from Houston. Lowry returns to play against his former team and I project the Rockets will keep him in check and this should help our play on the UNDER.