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Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 27

Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 27

DUNKEL INDEX

Toronto at Houston
The Rockets look to take advantage of a Toronto team that is coming off a 111-106 loss to San Antonio and is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. Houston is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4 1/2)

Game 501-502: Dallas at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 112.078; Philadelphia 119.526
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 7 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 194
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Over

Game 503-504: Phoenix at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 118.263; Cleveland 113.411
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-2 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Toronto at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 113.818; Houston 123.391
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 9 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 4 1/2; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4 1/2); Over

Game 507-508: Minnesota at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 114.948; Sacramento 114.188
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1 1/2); Under

Game 509-510: Indiana at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 117.218; LA Lakers 123.117
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6; 193
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+7 1/2); Under

NCAAB

North Carolina at Indiana
The Tar Heels look to take advantage of an Indiana team that is coming off a 101-53 win over Ball State and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. North Carolina is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoosiers favored by only 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+9 1/2)

Game 511-512: Detroit at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 59.599; Bowling Green 54.865
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4 1/2;
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2)

Game 513-514: Minnesota at Florida State (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 69.529; Florida State 71.133
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 1 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Florida State by 3; 138
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over

Game 515-516: Iowa at Virginia Tech (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 63.056; Virginia Tech 65.107
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 2
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 3
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+3)

Game 517-518: NC State at Michigan (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 66.550; Michigan 75.623
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 9; 131
Vegas Line: Michigan by 6; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-6); Under

Game 519-520: Illinois-Chicago at Northern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 55.898; Northern Illinois 44.336
Dunkel Line: Illinois-Chicago by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois-Chicago by 6
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (-6)

Game 521-522: UAB at Troy (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 54.551; Troy 51.717
Dunkel Line: UAB by 3
Vegas Line: UAB by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+4 1/2)

Game 523-524: Denver at Southern Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 57.722; Southern Mississippi 64.552
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 7
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-5 1/2)

Game 525-526: Nebraska at Wake Forest (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 52.711; Wake Forest 57.029
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 4 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 6; 130
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+6); Over

Game 527-528: Maryland at Northwestern (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 62.784; Northwestern 68.199
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 5 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 4; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-4); Under

Game 529-530: North Carolina at Indiana (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 73.541; Indiana 81.175
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 7 1/2; 160
Vegas Line: Indiana by 9 1/2; 156
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+9 1/2); Over

Game 531-532: Fairfield at DePaul (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 53.857; DePaul 59.397
Dunkel Line: DePaul by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: DePaul by 7
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+7)

Game 541-542: Vermont at Harvard (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vermont 57.299; Harvard 65.482
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 8
Vegas Line: Harvard by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-5 1/2)

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 27

David Chan
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Toronto vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
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Toronto is 3-11 SU and 7-7 ATS. Last time out it lost 111-106 in double OT to the Spurs as a 6 point underdog. It was the free-falling Raptors fourth straight loss, but third straight cover. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting an "L" in both columns today. Kyle Lowry remains a bright spot on the team and is averaging 18.3 points and 6.1 assists since returning from injury earlier in the month.
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Big man Andrea Bargnani had a brutal showing though vs. San Antonio, going just 2 of 19 from the floor to finish with a season-low four points.
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Note that Toronto is already 0-2 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points.
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Houston is 6-7 SU and 6-6-1 ATS. It's 4-3 ATS at home. Last time out it hammered the Knicks 131-103 as a 4 point underdog.
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Jeremy Lin had 13 points vs. his former team.
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James Harden had 33, while Chandler Parsons had 21.
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In all the team would hit almost 52% from the floor.
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Already 6-0 ATS this year in non-conference games, note that Houston is 31-21 ATS in the same position over the last two.
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Coach Kevin McHale is dealing with the death of his daughter, and I believe this will become an emotional rallying point for the home side. Consider a second look at the Rockets in this matchup!

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Joseph D'AmicoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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DETROIT vs. BOWLING GREEN    
PLAY: DETROIT
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Can you say REVENGE?! Last year, these two teams met and everything went wrong for Detroit. The Titans committed 21 TOs, had to put a backup Forward in for 30 minutes (usually plays 12 minutes) due to an injury to their 6'9" starter, had issues because Love was in early foul trouble, and Holman was out. This season, four players are combining for 60.5 PPG and 21.3 RPG. The nucleus of their starting five are all athletic and talented. The backcourt of 6'3" McCallum and 6'2" Calliste will have their way with 5'6" Crawford at both ends. Don't judge UDMs 0-2 road record so fast. They went up against St. Johns and Miami Florida in those away games. The Falcons losses were to Cleveland State, Indiana Purdue, and Robert Morris. No comparison. Take Detroit here.

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MINNESOTA vs. FLORIDA STATE    
PLAY: MINNESOTA
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The Gophers have played Duke, Memphis and Stanford this year so they should be prepared to face good competition. The Seminoles have already lost one game to a weak team earlier in November. Tubby Smith's team is led by Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe. I think we see a close game with Minnesota winning by a small margin but take the points in this ACC/Big Ten Challenge early game.

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Phoenix Suns vs. Cleveland Cavaliers    
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers
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The Cavaliers are bad, no doubt about that, but the Suns might be worse. These teams aren't far apart in record but Cleveland still carries a big advantage tonight. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a 40% win percentage or worse. They appear to be playing down to their level of competition this season. The Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Cleveland has earned 67% of their wins on their home court this season and that continues as they pull off the micro upset over Phoenix today.

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Suns at Cavaliers
Pick: Over
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A pair of teams with losing records meet and neither play defense. Phoenix comes to town with an attacking offense ranked 9th in scoring, but 30th in defense allowing 103.3 ppg. The Suns are on a 6-1 run over the total and the over is 12-2 in Suns last 14 games playing on one days rest. Cleveland ranks 29th in points allowed and the over is 6-2 in the Cavaliers last 8 vs. the Western Conference. Look for an uptempo battle and an offensive show, Play the Suns/Kings over the total.

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Andrew LangeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Maryland at Northwestern
Recommendation: Under
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I watched most of Northwestern's overtime win over Illinois State on Saturday. The most notable thing in that contest was how slow and patient the Wildcats were on offense. ISU had come into that contest averaging 74.4 possessions per game but Northwestern wasn't willing to play that style. At the end of regulation it was tied 55-55 and even with overtime the final score was deceiving as the two teams scored 19 points in the last minute due to fouling and free throws. Tonight, Northwestern faces a Maryland squad that like ISU has the ability to score and a desire at times to get out in transition. I don't think Northwestern, especially at home, is going to want to play and up and down game against the Terps so expect to see somewhere in the low 60s in terms of possessions. If we can avoid a crazy night from deep from both teams I think the under had decent value.

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Minnesota vs. Florida St.
Pick: Florida St.
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Although there is mounting evidence that Minnesota could once again emerge as a force in the Big Ten, not sure the Golden Gophers are ready to tackle defensively-stingy Florida State.  Minnesota, which was hammered by another ACC power, Duke, in last week's Battle 4 Atlantis, has seen soph G Andre Hollins deliver some big efforts (and some iffy ones) in the early going, while PF Trevor Mbakwe hinted that he's close to 100% after last season's knee injury when scoring 19 in Saturday's win over Stanford. But the Seminoles play meaner defense than any team (including Duke) that Minnesota has yet seen, and the Noles are getting plenty of help on the offensive end from 6'5 sr. G Michael Snaer (16 ppg) and 6'8 jr. F Okaro White (14.2 ppg).  College hoops +3050 units since Wednesday...featured Tuesday release from Tallahassee!

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Jesse Schule
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Minnesota vs. Sacramento
Pick: Sacramento
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The Kings only have four wins so far this season, but all four of those have come at Sleep Train Arena. Sacramento has been playing better basketball of late however, winners of two of their last three, including an upset over the Lakers last week. They lost to the Jazz in Utah by just two points on Friday, but they executed their revenge on the Jazz the following day.
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The Kings only have four wins so far this season, but all four of those have come at Sleep Train Arena. Sacramento has been playing better basketball of late however, winners of two of their last three, including an upset over the Lakers last week. They lost to the Jazz in Utah by just two points on Friday, but they executed their revenge on the Jazz the following day.
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Sacramento has won two of their last three against the Timberwolves, who they will face at home tonight. They have also covered the spread in three of their last four meetings with Minnesota.
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The Timberwolves took a lead into the fourth quarter in their last game at Golden State, but they let the game slip away, losing their fifth consecutive game.
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While the Timberwolves have welcomed Kevin Love back to the lineup, they are still missing Ricky Rubio and Brandon Roy. Love wasn't as effective as he'd like to be against Golden State, playing with a protective pad on his right hand.
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"(The pad is) very restricting," Love said. "I can't bend my hand all the way back and I couldn't get a good feel for the basketball. The doctor said it was OK to play but at the same time he warned that I'm coming back two weeks early and I have to keep working on my conditioning, my range of motion and shooting."
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It isn't going to get any easier for Love and the Timberwolves in Sacramento, and they are likely going be on the wrong end of tonight's game.

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Chris Jordan

My free winner comes out of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge also, as I give you what I feel is the best underdog on the card, that being the Nebraska Cornhuskers catching points in Winston-Salem, N.C, at Wake Forest.

Couple things stand out for me with this game, starting with the fact the Demon Deacons are in after needing their second-straight rally from a double-digit deficit. Wake Forest erased a 13-point shortage against William and Mary to pull out a 63-57 win on Friday, and that was after coming back from 11 down against Mercer to win 74-71. Playing from behind is not healthy, especially against physical teams like Nebraska.

And tonight the Deacons will be hosting a pissed-off 'Huskers team that had its season-opening four-game winning streak come to an abrpt halt against Kent State, which scored a 74-60 upset on Saturday. This is also a Nebraska team that comes into this one with revenge on the brain, after Wake Forest won last season's clash in this challenge, in Lincoln. C.J. Harris’ layup with 3.4 seconds left was the game-winning bucket for Wake Forest.

Just reading senior guard Dylan Talley's comments about this game leads me to believe Big Red may have been seeing red, and was looking forward to this game before stepping on the court against Kent State.

Now it's time for payback. And with the Deacons allowing 73.2 points per game, including a whopping 94 to Iona, I think a motivated Nebraska team could win this game outright. I'll take the points, but I'll be looking for the win.

3♦ NEBRASKA

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Matt Rivers

Free play winner last night on San Antonio.

Tonight's free play will be the Lakers to get a win and cover as the big favorite over Indiana.

The Lakers were able to end a two game road skid with a 115-89 rout of the Mavericks in Dalllas on Saturday night. Los Angeles has gone 6-3 straight up at the Staples Center, and they have covered four of their last six on their home hardwood.

Indiana has really struggled this season with Danny Granger sidelined, as the Pacers hit the City of Angels having dropped six of their eight road games this season, while going just 3-5 against the spread in those roadies.

Los Angeles will get more comfortable with each passing day under new coach Mike D'Antoni, and I fully expect them to turn the heat up on the Pacers tonight and win this game going away.

This one has double-digit rout written all over it.

Take the Lakers over the Pacer for Tuesday night.

2♦ L.A. LAKERS

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SPORTS WAGERS
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Minnesota +104 over SACRAMENTO
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The Timberwolves, minus Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, covered the number in six of their first seven games. What that suggests is the oddsmakers overcompensated for the loss of that pair. Upon Kevin Love’s return five games ago, Minnesota has failed to cover in all five, suggesting overcompensation with him in the lineup. Now the T-Wolves will play their sixth game with Love in the lineup, in Sacramento, a team that has covered three straight after covering just once in its first 10 games.
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The oddsmakers have now adjusted the lines to reflect the current plight of these two and we can step in and take advantage. Minnesota has been off since Saturday, giving coach Rick Adelman some much needed time to tweak a few things. Make no mistake, Kevin Love is one of the best centers in the game and the T-Wolves are a better team with him than without. They’ll confirm that here.
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INDIANA -9 -110 over North Carolina
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You would have to go deep into the archives to find the last time Roy Williams’s #14th ranked club was taking back a number like this. Most will be enticed into scooping these seemingly generous points. Not us. The Heels have played one tough game against Butler and lost by 11. UNC was held to 18 points in the first half. Against Butler, there was no threat in transition and no go to post player in the halfcourt. The Heels’ flawed defense was evident and it doesn't look as though they are going to have the offensive firepower to simply outscore teams. UNC’s ranking is based on pedigree.
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The Hoosiers have been heating for this game. They’ve barely broken a sweat in a 48-point win over Ball State, a 54-point win over Sam Houston and a 13-point win over Georgia. They were taken to OT by Georgetown in the Legend’s Classic in New York but they still won by 10 and it was more like a road game. Indiana will bring its 6-0 record to this big game and reading between the line strongly suggests that they will be the second team to expose the Tar Heels this year.

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Wunderdog

Fairfield at Depaul
Pick: Fairfield +7

The DePaul Blue Demons have not been able to turn the corner in the Big East. While Cleveland Melvin is a bona fide Big East player with over 1,000 points in his career, he can't do it alone. The Blue Demons shot under 35% in a pair of losses in Cancun, and the offense is struggling. Fairfield has had trouble shooting the ball as well, but had Virginia on the ropes, down by 1 point late in the game. Although young, the Stags are capable of hanging around in this one vs. a DePaul team that continues to search for answers. The Stags have had three straight 20-win seasons, and DePaul has been brutal at home vs. a team with a losing road record at just 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53. Play on Fairfield.

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Sean Murphy

N.C. State vs. Michigan
Pick: N.C. State

Perhaps there's not a more highty-motivated team on the college hardwood tonight than the N.C. State Wolfpack. They're coming off back-to-back subpar performances, first losing by 20 points in a shocker against Oklahoma State in Puerto Rico and then narrowly avoiding a major upset by defeated UNC-Asheville 82-80 last Friday.

Make no mistake, this is an experienced, and ultra-talented N.C. State squad - one of the best in the nation in fact - few teams have a cupboard as well stocked as the Wolfpack.

Michigan comes in rather fat and happy having won five straight games to open the season, going 3-0 ATS along the way. But the Wolverines aren't unbeatable. Remember, they trailed Pittsburgh at the half at MSG last week, and didn't pull away from Kansas State until late, and only thanks to a 52% shooting day.

Much like the Wolfpack, the Wolverines bring plenty of talent and experience to the table, and are certainly deserving of their high national ranking. I'm just not convinced they'll be able to pull away and win by any considerable margin tonight.

Michigan has enjoyed a huge rebounding edge in all five games it has played this season, but isn't likely to benefit from the same advantage tonight. This will be the Wolverines toughest test to date, and while they may pass it, I don't see them getting it done in resounding fashion.

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Jimmy Boyd

Sacramento Kings -1

Minnesota is really struggling. It has lost 5 in a row both SU and ATS. Each of its last 4 losses has come by 7 points or more.

Sacramento, on the other hand, is quietly playing some good basketball. It is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last 3 games with wins over the Jazz and Lakers.

This series has been dominated by the home team. The home team has won each of the past 5 meetings by an average of 10.2 points. 4 of these wins came by 8 points or more.

In addition, the Timberwolves are 5-11 ATS in the last 16 meetings and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento.

It is also significant that the Kings enter off an 11-point win over Utah because they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. Take the Kings.

Jimmy has banked his $1,000/game bettors a RIDICULOUS $82,080 on the hardwood since the start of the 2007 season. Grab his NBA + CBB season pass today and start cashing in on a consistent basis.

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Jack Jones

Philadelphia 76ers -3

The Philadelphia 76ers are showing solid value as only a 3-point home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks Tuesday. The 76ers are certainly playing the better basketball of late while the Mavericks have been struggling.

Philadelphia has won seven of its last 11 games overall, and it is 5-4 at home this season. I like its chances to stay hot against a Dallas team that has lost six of its last 9 games overall. It is just 2-4 on the road this season, getting outscored by 6.2 points/game. It is really starting to miss Dirk.

Dallas is 17-35 ATS after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 20 or more since 1996. Philadelphia is 39-22 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

The Mavs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The 76ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. Philly is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the 76ers Tuesday.

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Steve Janus

Toronto Raptors +6

Most of the focus will be on the Raptors inability to win games and not how well this team has been playing since the return of starting point guard Kyle Lowry.

Toronto enters this game having lost four straight since the return of Lowry, but those four losses have come by a combined 15 points. Their latest defeat was a 106-111 double-overtime loss to San Antonio. In each of their last three games the Raptors have held had the lead in the 4th quarter. This team is going to continue to play extremely hard until they are able to break through with a W.

This is going to be an especially important game for Lowry, who the Rockets traded this offseason to the Raptors for a draft pick. On the other side of things, the Rockets entire organization is dealing with the death of head coach Kevin McHale's 23-year-old daughter. It's going to be extremely hard for them to come out with the focus needed to beat a hungry team like the Raptors, especially with such a big game on the road tomorrow night against Oklahoma City.

Toronto is 17-6 ATS over their last 23 games when they have lost 4 of 5 over the last two seasons and are 20-6 ATS over their last 26 road games following back-to-back losses by 6-points or less!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 27

Sean Higgs

Timberwolves vs. Kings    
Play: Over 196

Just think Sacramento is going to want to push the tempo a bit. The Over is 7-1-1 last 9 in Sacramento and I can see both teams getting to 100 here tonight. Kings scored 80 in Minny back on 11/2, and will look to exact a little revenge on the visitors here tonight

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Dave Price

NC State +6

NC State is 8-0 ATS in road games when playing for just the 2nd time in 8 days over the last 2 seasons. It is also 9-0 ATS in road games when checking in with 2 wins in its last games over the last 2 seasons. The Wolfpack are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 road games. They are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win,9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 15-2 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Take the points.

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Rob Vinciletti

Raptors vs. Rockets
Play: Under 201½

This game fits a nice totals system that plays to the under for home teams like Houston that have 3 or more days of rest and scored 110 or more at home in their last game, vs an opponent like Toronto that scored 90 or more at home in their last game while shooting 45% or less. These game shave stayed under 78% of the time long term. The Raptors are 4-1 to the under vs losing teams and both times to the under this year after scoring 105 or more. Houston has stayed under in 4 of 5 games as a favorite this season. Look for this game to go under tonight.

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