NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 13
NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 13
Week 13 NFL Opening Point Spreads and Early Line Moves
By: The Linemakers
A first look at the points spreads—and where the early action went—for Week 13 of the NFL season. Odds are from the LVH SuperBook.
Saints at Falcons (-4.5)
Atlanta will be looking to avenge its lone loss of the season. The Falcons were beaten in New Orleans, 31-27, as 1-point favorites on Nov. 11. Early action was on the Saints, and the number was adjusted to 3.5 Sunday night.
Seahawks at Bears (no line)
Chicago got Jay Cutler back from a one-game absence and handled the Vikings at home, 28-10. Seattle has to get back on the road next week, where it's just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS after a 24-21 loss in Miami on Sunday.
Vikings at Packers (-10)
Minnesota fell to 6-5 with its loss in Chicago, but has lost three of its last four, and four of six. Things don’t get easier for the Vikes with two games against Green Bay and another date with the Bears still left on the schedule.
49ers (-7) at Rams
San Francisco went on the road and beat New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. St. Louis also got a road win, albeit against an ice cold Arizona team starting its third-string quarterback. Next week’s game is a rematch of these teams’ 24-24 tie on Nov. 11. The Rams took some early money, pushing the line down to 6.5
Cardinals at Jets (-3)
Jets money pushed this line up to -4, despite New York’s Thanksgiving night embarrassment at the hands of the Patriots. Arizona has dropped seven in a row, covering in only one of those losses.
Panthers (-3) and Chiefs
Another one that’s not exactly of national television caliber. These teams have three wins between them. Kansas City did get its second cover in three weeks as a 10-point home dog vs. the Broncos. Carolina, despite having only two wins this season, will be laying points on the road two weeks in a row—they’re favorites in Philly on Monday night. The line was tweaked to Panthers -3 (even) after some action on the Chiefs.
Colts at Lions (-4.5)
This line bounced around a bit Sunday night, as early Colts dollars dropped the line to Lions -4, but it was bet back up to -4.5. Indy won and covered for the fifth time in its last six games, its only loss in the span being the blowout in New England two weeks ago. Detroit lost but got the cash as a 3.5-point dog Thanksgiving Day vs. the Texans.
Jaguars at Bills (-6)
Jacksonville got its first home win of the season, 24-19, against Tennessee. The Jags get back on the road next week, where they’re a perfect 5-0 ATS.
Patriots (-7) at Dolphins
New England is 4-1 ATS on the road this season. Miami broke a three-game losing streak with its win as a home dog vs. Seattle on Sunday.
Texans (-5.5) at Titans
Houston is 10-1 after its overtime win in Detroit. This line may seem a little light, considering the Texans rolled in their first meeting of the season, 38-14, as 13-point home favorites in Week 4. Bettors, though, didn’t see it that way, as the Titans drew some money and the line was moved down to 4.5
Bucs at Broncos (-7)
Tampa Bay lost a tight one at home, 24-23, to the Falcons. Denver won but failed to cover in K.C. The Bucs have been getting the cash this season and took some money Sunday night, which pushed the line to 6.5.
Steelers at Ravens (no line)
Don’t expect to see a number hung on this one until the Steelers’ quarterback situation becomes more clear later this week. Baltimore was a 3-point favorite two weeks ago in Pittsburgh, which was without Ben Roethlisberger, and the game ended as a push.
Browns (-1.5) at Raiders
You know things are pretty bad in Oakland when the Raiders are a dog at home against Cleveland.
Bengals at Chargers (-3.5)
Heavy action on Cincy Sunday night drove this line all the way down to -1. Bettors are either believing in the Bengals, who have won three in a row, or running away from the Chargers, who have dropped three straight.
Eagles at Cowboys (-7)
The NFL decided not to flex out of this game for NBC’s Sunday nighter, despite both teams owning losing records. Dallas won easily in Philly on Nov. 11, 38-23, as a 1-point favorite.
Giants (-1) at Redskins
This is the second meeting of the season between these two teams. New York won, but failed to cover in the first one, 27-23, as 6.5-point home favorites.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 13
Week 13 NFL
Seahawks (6-5) @ Bears (8-3) — Seattle’s starting CBs may be suspended soon for PED use, but are expected to play here; once they’re out we’ll look to play against Seattle, with games going over total. Chicago was held to 10-6-7 points in its three losses (Pack-Texans-49ers); they’re 5-1 at home, 3-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 20-17-6-1-18 points. Seattle is 1-5 on road despite being favored in half the games; they’re 2-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 4-6-7-4-3 points- they’ve won regular season games here last two years (23-20/38-14) but lost 35-24 in ’10 playoffs; Hawks lead 9-6 overall in series. Seattle allowed 20+ points in three of last four games. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-8 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 6-5. Four of last five Chicago home games stayed under total; three of last four Seattle games went over.
Vikings (6-5) @ Packers (7-4) — Green Bay hasn’t played well in two post-bye games, limping past Lions 24-20 (never got inside Detroit red zone despite +3 turnover margin), getting waxed by Giants last week. Pack is home for first time in four weeks; they’re 2-3 as home favorites, winning last four at Lambeau by 13-1-9-14 points. Packers scored 34.3 ppg in winning last four series games; Vikings lost five of last six visits here, with losses by 2-34-5-4-38 points. Fading Minnesota lost three of last four games, allowing 29.5 ppg (14 TDs on last 46 drives), after allowing average of 18.7 ppg in first seven games; they’re 1-4 on road, 1-2 as road dog, losing away games by 3-12-10-18 points Three of last four Viking games went over total, as have three of five Green Bay home games. Home favorites are 2-3 vs spread in NFC North divisional games.
49ers (8-2-1) @ Rams (4-6-1) — Teams battled to 24-24 tie (SF -12) three weeks ago in Candlestick, with both teams missing FGs to win it; Niners are 7-1-1 in last nine series games, winning four of last five visits here, with wins by 1-1-22-7 points. Rams are 4-1 in games where spread was 3 or less points; they’re 0-5-1 in other games, losing last two home games by 10-14 points. St Louis is 7-3 vs spread as a dog, 3-1 at home. All eight SF wins this year are by 7+ points; they’re 4-1 on road, 3-1 as road favorites, winning away games by 8-34-21-10 points. Kaepernick’s mobility gives them another dimension, but fact is they were losing in Superdome last week until defense scored two TDs off Brees. Last three 49er games, last five Ram games all went over the total. Underdogs are 5-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games.
Cardinals (4-7) @ Jets (4-7) — Arizona lost last seven games after 4-0 start; in last two games, Cardinal offense scored three TDs on 28 drives, while giving up three TDs to opposing defenses. Redbirds are 1-4 on road, 2-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 14-7-14-4 points. If they had a decent QB, they’d be a contender, but they don’t. Jets lost five of last six games, with last three losses by 21-21-30 points; they’re 2-4 at home this year, 3-1 vs spread as a favorite, with only home wins by 20-21 points. Gang Green is 1-7 when their turnover ratio is worse than +3. Jets won last five series meetings by average score of 35-15, winning last one 56-35 here back in ’08. Last time Cardinals beat Jets was in ’75. NFC West road underdogs are 6-5 vs spread; AFC East home favorites are 4-3. Five of last seven Arizona games stayed under the total.
Panthers (3-8) @ Chiefs (1-10) — Very tough to lay points on road with 3-8 Panther squad that was fired up for rare MNF appearance, and is now travelling on short week, but since late rally vs Chargers fell short in Week 4, Kansas City has three offensive TDs on 76 drives (0 for 21 in last two games), while allowing three return TDs to opponents; they’ve now lost seven games in row, are 0-6 at home for first time since 1976. KC has 83 points in last seven games (11.9 ppg). Carolina covered last four road games, winning last two (Wash/Phil). Three of last four Carolina road games went over total; last three Chief games stayed under. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 4-0 on road; AFC West underdogs are 6-13, 2-5 at home. Bad teams have very little enthusiasm from fans, therefore very small, if any home field advantage.
Colts (7-4) @ Lions (4-7) — Indy had -4 turnover ratio in three of four losses; they’re 7-1 otherwise, making them live dog here; Colts won/covered five of last six games, with only loss in Foxboro- they’re 4-3 vs spread as underdog, 1-3 on road. Detroit has only two takeaways (-5) in last three games; they’ve lost last three weeks, allowing 30.7 ppg (nine TDs/10 FGA on last 37 drives)- their last seven TDs allow all came on drives of 74+ yards, so they’re not stopping anyone, and Colts have good offense, converting 16 of last 30 3rd down plays. Lions are 2-3 vs spread as underdog, 1-2 at home. Indy won last three series games by average score of 34-16, but that was with Manning at QB. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Indy games, 1-4 in last five Detroit games. AFC South underdogs are 11-9 vs spread, 5-5 on road; NFC North favorites are 10-11, 6-8 at home.
Jaguars (2-9) @ Bills (4-7) — Buffalo is 4-0 when it allows 17 or less points, 0-7 when it doesn’t. December trip up north for Florida team is generally bad news for visitors, but since Henne became QB, Jags scored 37-24 points in last two games (7 TDs on last 25 drives), and appear energized. Jax is also 5-0 vs spread on road, with losses by 3-3-9-6 points, but three of those five road games were in domes. Buffalo lost four of last five games, with only win vs Miami (Florida team coming north); Bills are 2-2 SU at home, 3-1 vs spread as favorites this year, with home wins by 18-5 points. Jaguars won four of six visits here, winning 36-26 in last trip here, two years ago. AFC East favorites are 7-5 vs spread, 4-3 at home; AFC South underdogs are 10-9, 5-5 on road. Three of last four Buffalo games stayed under the total.
Patriots (8-3) @ Dolphins (5-6) — New England has five return TDs in last two games; Miami hasn’t forced a turnover in its last four games. Last week was first time Dolphins won without positive turnover ratio (1-6). Patriots won four in row, eight of last 10 series games, winning four of last five visits here, with wins by 21-20-27-14 points. NE is 17-6-1 vs spread in last 24 games as a divisional road favorite; they’re 4-2 on road, this year, with all four wins by 21+ points. Pats’ losses are by 1-1-2 points, so in reality, they’re seven points away from being 11-0 right now. Miami is 3-2 at home, with three of five games decided by exactly 3 points. Over last decade, Miami is 5-9 as a divisional home dog. Last nine Patriot games went over the total; under is 5-1-1 in last seven Miami games. Home teams are 2-6 vs spread in AFC divisional games, home dogs are 0-3.
Texans (10-1) @ Titans (4-7) — Tennessee’s development of young Locker as QB of future took major hit when they fired OC Palmer Monday; now you have 2nd-year QB with very little experience, a rookie OC, and a 2nd-year HC with an Impatient 86-year old owner who never should’ve let Jeff Fisher get out of Nashville in first place. Titans lost 38-14 (+13) at Houston in Week 4; Texans had two return TDs, +3 turnover ratio in game that was only 14-7 at half. Potential trap game for Houston, which plays in Foxboro next week; they’re 5-0 on road this year, 2-1-1 as road favorite, winning road games by 20-6-6-7-3 points. Titans are 4-5 as underdogs this year, 2-2 at home. Six of last nine Houston games went over total; three of last four Titan games stayed under. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season.
Buccaneers (6-5) @ Broncos (8-3) — Denver won last six games, failed to cover last two, despite winning by 7-8 points; they’re 3-1 as Mile High favorites, with home wins by 12-31-20-7 points, and loss to Houston. Bronco defense has improved greatly; opponents converted just six of last 42 third down plays. Bucs had 4-game win streak snapped last week; they’re 5-1-1 as an underdog this year, 4-0 on road, winning last three games on foreign soil while scoring 35 ppg. Broncos won five of seven series games, with last four all decided by 4 or less points; Bucs lost three of four visits here, with only win in ’93, and last two losses by 4-3 points. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-1 vs spread this season; AFC West favorites are 5-5, 3-3 at home. Six of last eight Tampa games, five of last seven Broncos tilts went over the total.
Steelers (6-5) @ Ravens (9-2) — Pittsburgh scored 16-10-14 points in last three games, losing last two with backup QBs playing, scoring just single FG in second half of those games; Batch-led Steelers had 8 turnovers (-7) last week, first NFL team in 11 years to do that, so Big Ben’s recovery probably accelerated here, as Ravens beat Pitt 13-10 (-3.5) two weeks ago at Heinz, despite being outgained 311-200. Ravens were +3 in turnovers that game, are +7 in last four; they’re 2-3 as home favorites this year, winning at home by 31-1-7-2-35 points. Baltimore scored only 13-16 points in last two games, but won both with defense, converted 4th-and-29 swing pass on game-tying drive last week. Pitt is 2-4 on road, losing by 12-3-3-6 points; they’re Home teams covered four of first six AFC North divisional games. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Steeler games, 3-1 in last four Raven games.
Browns (3-8) @ Raiders (3-8) — Cleveland is 3-3 since last six games since starting out 0-5; they’re 0-5 on road, though, with four losses by 7 or less points. Browns beat rival Steelers at home last week, forcing eight turnovers from 37-year old, 3rd-string QB Batch; they’re 3-7-1 vs spread in game following their last 11 wins. Oakland lost last four games, allowing 42.3 ppg (20 TDs on last 48 drives), 182.5 rushing yards/game; they’re 2-3 at home, beating Steelers/Jaguars by FG each. Raiders are 0-3 as a favorite this year; since 2006, they’re a ridiculous 4-16 vs spread when favored. Home team won last three series games, with Browns losing 26-24/24-17 in last two visits here. AFC North underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 4-4 on road; AFC West favorites are 5-5, 3-3 at home. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Cleveland games, 1-5 in last six Raider games.
Bengals (6-5) @ Chargers (4-7) — San Diego couldn’t stop Ray Rice from getting first down on 4th-and-29 last week, which led to tying FG in OT loss that officially ended its season; Chargers lost six of last seven games, with only win vs hideous Chiefs- they’re 2-3 at home, and forced total of only nine turnover in non-Chief games (10 takeaways in two games vs KC). Bengals won last three games allowing 9.7 ppg (two TDs on 35 drives); they’re 6-0 when they score 27+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. San Diego allowed 30+ points in four of its last seven games- they haven’t had TD drive of less than 78 yards since Week 6. Chargers are 8-3 in last 11 series games, winning five of last six played here. AFC West teams are 5-8 vs spread in non-divisional home games; AFC North teams are 6-8 on road. Under is 6-2 in last eight Bengal games, 2-6 in last eight San Diego games.
Eagles (3-8) @ Cowboys (5-6) — Eagles are in tank, losing last seven games (0-6 vs spread in last six); national TV cameras didn’t help them last week, likely won’t help here, especially with WR Jackson now out for year (ribs)- their three wins are by 1-1-2 points, so they’re seven points away from being 0-11. Dallas beat them 38-23 (-1) three weeks ago at the Linc, despite being outgained by 75 yards- Pokes had three return TDs in same quarter. Cowboys are 6-19-1 vs spread in last 26 games as a favorite, 2-5 this year; they’re 2-3 at home this year, 0-4 as home favorite, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Foles hasn’t been awful at QB for Eagles; he is a Dallas kid (Westlake Carroll HS). Eagles have two takeaways (-8) in last five games. Home teams are 1-6 vs spread in NFC East games, home favorites 1-4. All five Eagle road games stayed under the total; three of last four Dallas home games went over.
Giants (7-4) @ Redskins (5-6) — Washington scored go-ahead TD with 1:32 left to take 23-20 lead in Week 7’s first meeting, but Manning hit on 77-yard TD pass on first play after kickoff to give Giants dramatic win, their 7th in last nine series games. Big Blue is 0-4 when they score 20 or less points, 7-0 when they score more; Redskins allowed 21+ points in nine of 11 games. Both teams have played better since their bye; Redskins scored 31-38 points in beating other two division rivals; they’ve had three extra days to prepare since Turkey Day win. Giants looked invigorated in crushing Green Bay last week. Home teams are 1-6 vs spread in NFC East games, home underdogs 0-2. Last three Giant games, three of last four Washington games stayed under the total. Last four years, team that won first series meeting also won the second; Giants won five of last six visits here.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 13
NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins off a come-from-behind win over the Seahawks ending a three game slide have some serious work to do on the offensive side if they're going to keep up with New England (8-3, 7-4 ATS). Patriots clicking on all cylinders ridding a five game win streak (3-2 ATS) averaging a dynamite 43.8 points per game aren't about to take their foot off the gas peddle with home field still up for grabs in the AFC. No secret about the 'Brady Bunch' offense but what's really scary for opponents, the Patriots have scored five touchdowns on defense and special teams in their last two games. Crush time, lay the expected 9.0 points. Patriots are 5-1 ATS on the road this season with a 18.5 winning margin, 10-4 ATS last fourteen on the road (+13.6), 12-1 (7-4-2 ATS) on the road in the crucial month of December (+12.0) and have a smart 4-1 ATS record last five trips into Miami.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers off a 38-10 road loss to the New York Giants it's most lopsided loss in almost five years host a mistake-prone Viking squad thrashed 28-10 by Chicago last week. The Packers (7-4, 5-6 ATS) a game behind the division-leading Bears in the North and a game ahead of Vikings (6-5, 4-6-1 ATS) should get back on track with a victory over Boat-Men Sunday at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has not only won four straight in the series (3-1 ATS) the Pack have won five of six hosting their divisional rival (4-2 ATS). The dominance is unlikely to change as Green Bay will load the box with defenders eliminating Vikings only threat (Peterson) making this a rather easy victory for the humiliated but not shaken Pack. Look for Green Bay to move to 14-1 (8-5-1 ATS) at home vs the division in December, 9-2-1 ATS after scoring < 15 Pts the previous game and Vikings to fall to 1-5 ATS on the road this season, 5-9-1 ATS on the road vs a division opponent in December.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Another trip to the ATM Machine this past Thursday for Cowboy backers as they've covered just two of their last thirteen at Cowboys Stadium. Now 'The Boys' are being asked to lay 9.5 when struggling, injury plagued Eagles pay a visit. The Eagles on a 0-7 (1-6 ATS) slide and missing WR DeSean Jackson out with rib fractures, RB LeSean McCoy, QB Michael Vick out with a concussion, DT Fletcher Cox, OL King Dunlap bruised/batter this would seem a perfect opportunity for Cowboy followers. But, before laying the huge number keep in mind, Cowboys are just 2-8 ATS last ten vs the division and that laying 9.5 or more points on a home favorite no matter how bad the visiting team is can be risky. These homies have posted a 9-10 mark against the number this season.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 13
NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 13
Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 13's action.
Seattle at Chicago (-3.5, 37.5)
Jay Cutler returned against the Vikings last week and led four straight scoring drives in the first and second quarters as Chicago cruised to a 28-10 win. The Seahawks should have their full secondary ready to attack Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall, as the potential suspensions for CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner, who both tested positive for a banned stimulant, are under appeal. Seattle is 1-5 on the road this season and has suffered all five of those road losses by a touchdown or less, including last week’s 24-21 setback at Miami. Bears RB Matt Forte (ankle) has been limited in practice but says he will be ready to go for Sunday. These teams have played over the total in their last seven meetings.
Minnesota at Green Bay (-9.5, 45.5)
The Vikings and Packers square off in a crucial game for their playoff prospects Sunday at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is coming off a 38-10 prime-time loss to the New York Giants and is now a game behind the division-leading Bears. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has the highest QB rating in the league (105.6), but he has been held under 300 yards passing in four consecutive games. However, he will have one of his favorite targets back on the field this week, as WR Greg Jennings will make his return after missing seven games because of abdominal surgery. These teams have played over the total in seven of their last eight meetings.
San Francisco at St. Louis (7.5, 41)
The last time Alex Smith started at QB he was knocked out of the game and the 49ers ended up tying the St. Louis Rams after Colin Kaepernick stepped in and helped overcome a 17-7 deficit. This time, Kaepernick will get the start over a healthy Smith when San Francisco visits the Rams. The Niners’ passing game will have to be efficient because the ground game has been in a funk as of late. Frank Gore rushed for 97 yards on 21 carries in the first meeting with St. Louis this season, but has been held under 100 yards in four straight games. St. Louis could be without top WR Danny Amendola (heel), who has missed practice this week because of the injury. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
Arizona at New York Jets (-6, 36.5)
Both of these clubs are coming off lopsided home losses that dropped them to 4-7 on the campaign. The Cardinals have stumbled to seven consecutive defeats following a 4-0 start but they do own a victory at New England, a team that has defeated the Jets twice, including a 49-19 beating on Thanksgiving night. Arizona hasn’t scored 20 points since Week 4 and is averaging a paltry 12.7 points during its seven-game skid. The Jets have taken the last five meetings and none of New York's remaining five opponents currently has more than four wins. The under is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last six road games.
Carolina at Kansas City (3.5, 38.5)
Cam Newton threw for a pair of touchdowns and rushed for two more as Carolina posted a 30-22 victory over Philadelphia on Monday night. Newton could be in line for another field day against Kansas City, which can match its longest losing skid in franchise history with a ninth straight loss on Sunday. The Chiefs are counting on Brady Quinn to spark an offense that has mustered just three touchdowns in the last seven contests. The Chiefs will be playing with heavy hearts after the tragic death of LB Jovan Belcher, who committed suicide early Saturday morning. With RB Jonathan Stewart likely sidelined with a high ankle sprain, DeAngelo Williams will receive the bulk of the carries in the backfield for the Panthers. Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.
Indianapolis at Detroit (-6, 51)
The Lions suffered their third straight loss with a 34-31 overtime setback to Houston on Nov. 22, but the talk resonating from the game centered on the intent of Ndamukong Suh's kick to the groin of QB Matt Schaub. Commissioner Roger Goodell elected not to suspend the mammoth defensive tackle, but the league issued a $30,000 fine instead. Interim Colts coach Bruce Arians has won six of eight contests while filling in for Chuck Pagano and Indy has covered in five of its last six games overall.
Jacksonville at Buffalo (-6, 43)
The Bills have tumbled down the standings following four losses in five games, including last week's 20-13 defeat at Indianapolis. Buffalo continues to struggle in the red zone, managing only one touchdown in each of its last two games, and has surrendered a punt return for a score in consecutive weeks. The Jaguars have come to life under backup QB Chad Henne and snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 24-19 victory over Tennessee last week. Henne has thrown for 615 yards with six touchdowns and one interception in his two appearances this campaign. Surprisingly, Jacksonville is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.
New England at Miami (9, 51)
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots look to extend their five-game winning streak when they visit Miami. New England has scored 108 points in its last two games, the third-highest two-game total in NFL history. The Patriots have put up at least 37 points in each of their last four games and the scary part is that they’ve taken their foot off the gas in each one. Miami has been gashed through the air this season. The Dolphins rank 27th against the pass and they can’t count on the takeaways when they face Brady, who has been picked off just three times on the season. These teams have played over the total in their last four meetings.
Houston at Tennessee (6.5, 47)
The Texans have won five straight, including back-to-back overtime victories against Jacksonville and Detroit, and need just one more win to break the franchise record of 10 set last season. Houston also will clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie. Tennessee has lost three of four, including a 24-19 loss at Jacksonville last week, to fall two games off the wild card pace with five games to play. The Titans’ stop unit is among the league's worst and is ranked 31st in scoring and 29th in total yards. Houston is 5-0 on the road with four of those wins coming by seven points or less.
Tampa Bay at Denver (-9.5, 50.5)
The Buccaneers had their four-game winning streak snapped with last week's one-point home loss to Atlanta, but remain in a three-way tie with the Seahawks and Vikings for the final playoff spot in the NFC. Tampa Bay had rolled up an average of nearly 35 points during its four-game winning streak, but bogged down at critical moments in the 24-23 loss to the Falcons. The Broncos can wrap up their second straight AFC West title with a victory. Denver enters on a six-game winning streak, but the Bucs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-9.5, 36)
Pittsburgh, which has lost two straight without QB Ben Roethlisberger, desperately needs a win when it travels to Baltimore to avoid seeing its playoff hopes take another hit. Roethlisberger is back practicing in a limited capacity but has been ruled out, so veteran Charlie Batch will start. The Ravens can clinch a playoff berth with a win, and if their victory is paired with a Cincinnati loss at San Diego, they'll lock up the division crown. Baltimore enters on a four-game winning streak and has won 15 consecutive regular-season home games - the longest active streak in the NFL. The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall.
Cleveland at Oakland (1, 37.5)
Cleveland recorded eight turnovers against injury-ravaged Pittsburgh last week en route to a 20-14 triumph. Rookie QB Brandon Weeden suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of the victory, but is probable to be under center Sunday. Oakland could receive a boost in the backfield as Darren McFadden has resumed practicing and is in line to return after missing the last three contests with an ankle sprain. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.
Cincinnati at San Diego (1, 46)
The Cincinnati Bengals have put themselves in a wild card position with three straight wins. The Bengals have demolished the Giants, Chiefs and Raiders by an average of 21.3 points over the last three weeks. Andy Dalton has thrown for nine touchdowns and no interceptions in that span while the defense has been able to get pressure on opposing QBs and defend well against the passing game. That’s bad news for the Chargers, who have struggled passing and stopping the pass. San Diego has dropped six of its last seven games and has surrendered at least 30 points in four of those setbacks. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.
Philadelphia at Dallas (-10.5, 43)
The Eagles haven't tasted victory since Week 4, when they improved to 3-1 with a 19-17 triumph over the Giants. Injuries have ravaged the offense and Andy Reid is basically a lame-duck coach waiting for the axe to fall at season's end. On top of injuries to key cogs, Michael Vick (concussion) and LeSean McCoy (concussion), top wideout DeSean Jackson has been placed on IR with fractured ribs. Dallas, which is last in the league with an average of 78.7 rushing yards, may receive a boost Sunday as RB DeMarco Murray (foot) could be available. The Eagles are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
New York Giants at Washington (3, 51)
New York avoided a major downward spiral last Sunday night, when it posted a convincing 38-10 home victory over the Packers. Prior to the win, the Giants suffered losses at home to Pittsburgh and in Cincinnati. But not everything that came out of Sunday's win over the Packers was good as RB Andre Brown suffered a broken leg and is out for the remainder of the season. David Wilson could see more playing time in place of Brown, who leads the NFC with eight rushing touchdowns. Washington suffered a 27-23 setback to the Giants in Week 7 at MetLife Stadium. But New York is 0-4 ATS in its last four meetings with the Redskins.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 13
Bucs at Broncos: What Bettors Need to Know
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 50.5)
The signing of Peyton Manning has reaped huge dividends for the Denver Broncos, who can wrap up their second straight AFC West title with a victory over the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Whereas the Broncos lost their final three last season in backing into the division title, Manning has guided them to six consecutive victories and into contention for a possible first-round bye in the postseason. The Buccaneers had their four-game winning streak snapped with last week's one-point home loss to Atlanta, but remain in a three-way tie with the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings for the final playoff spot in the NFC. Denver has not won seven straight since the 1998 season, when it won the second of back-to-back Super Bowl titles.
LINE: Broncos -9.5, O/U 50.5
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 5 mph.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (6-5): Tampa Bay had rolled up an average of nearly 35 points during its four-game winning streak, but bogged down at critical moments in the 24-23 loss to the Falcons. Quarterback Josh Johnson failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season following a stretch of six straight games with multiple scoring passes. The Buccaneers also struggled in the running game, with rookie Doug Martin held to 50 yards on 21 carries following a four-game stretch in which he amassed 592 yards and five touchdowns. Tampa Bay's defense, which ranks last in the league against the pass (315.5 yards), lost CB Eric Wright to a four-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-3): Manning, the league's only four-time MVP, had 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions to insert himself into the conversation for the award once again after sitting out last season while undergoing multiple neck surgeries. Denver's running game got a huge jolt when oft-injured Knowshon Moreno came out of mothballs to rush for 85 yards on 20 carries in last week's 17-9 win at Kansas City. Moreno, a former first-round pick, had not played since Week 2 but filled the void left by the injury to Willis McGahee, who is expected to be sidelined for six to eight weeks. Linebacker Von Miller had eight sacks in four games in November, pushing his total to 14 and giving the Broncos a league-best 37.
* Buccaneers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 13 games.
* Over is 7-1 in Buccaneers’ last eight games overall.
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four December games.
1. Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas has gone over 100 yards in three of five home games.
2. Bucs wideouts Vincent Jackson (20.4) and Mike Williams (16.9) rank among the top five in the NFC in yards per catch.
3. Manning produced one of the greatest comebacks in league history against Tampa Bay in 2003, rallying Indianapolis from a 21-point deficit in the final four minutes of regulation for a 38-35 overtime win.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 13
Vikings at Packers: What Bettors Need to Know
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 45.5)
After absorbing big hits to their NFC North title hopes last week, the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers square off in a crucial game for their playoff prospects Sunday at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is coming off a 38-10 prime-time loss to the New York Giants and has fallen a game behind the division-leading Chicago Bears, who thumped the Vikings 28-10. Minnesota is two games back in the division and in a three-way tie for the final wild card.
It's the first of two meetings over the next five weeks; the teams will wrap up the regular season against one another in Minnesota. The Packers have won four straight meetings and nine of the past 12 against the Vikings, and they've won nine straight against division rivals.
LINE: Packers -9.5, O/U 45.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the WSW at 6 mph.
ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-5): Minnesota is one of the more surprising playoff contenders thanks to running back Adrian Peterson's speedy recovery from surgery to repair a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Peterson leads the league with 1,236 rushing yards and has recorded five straight 100-yard games. Quarterback Christian Ponder has been less consistent. After a solid start to the season, he has thrown nine interceptions in the past seven games and he has averaged just 150.4 passing yards over the past four. The Vikings have gone 1-3 during that stretch.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (7-4): Green Bay's five-game winning streak came to a crashing halt Sunday night against the Giants, as the Packers were dominated on both sides of the ball. The division title is still very much in play, though, with four of Green Bay's five remaining games against division opponents, including a trip to Chicago in Week 15. Aaron Rodgers has the highest quarterback rating in the league (105.6), but he has been held under 300 yards in four consecutive games. The passing game could get a bit of a boost this week, as receiver Greg Jennings will make his return after missing seven games because of abdominal surgery.
* Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Over is 7-1 in Packers’ last eight games following a loss.
* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.
1. Rodgers has thrown a touchdown pass in 35 consecutive home games, including the postseason.
2. Peterson has five career 100-yard rushing games against the Packers, and he has scored a rushing touchdown in seven of his past eight games against
Green Bay, including four straight at Lambeau Field.
3. Vikings WR Percy Harvin (ankle) is listed as doubtful.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 13
NFL Tech Notes
By Bruce Marshall
SEATTLE at CHICAGO...Pete Carroll 7-4 vs. line TY, 18-8 vs. number last 26 since early 2011. Carroll 5-0 as dog TY, 11-1 last 12 as dog, 16-2 last 18 as dog since early 2011. Lovie only one cover last four at home TY. Seahawks "under" 7-4 in 2012, "under" 4-2 on road. Tech edge-Seahawks and slight to "under," based on tam and "totals" trends.
MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY...Ugh! Vikes haven't beaten Pack since the big Favre Minnesota year of 2009, losing last four (1-3 vs. line). Vikes, however, only 1-4 vs. line this season on road, 4-8 last 12 away against line since early LY. Pack has covered only 2 of last 6 vs. line at Lambeau since late LY. "Overs" 7-1 last 8 meetings, and Pack "over" 19-9 since late in 2010 season. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.
SAN FRANCISCO at ST. LOUIS...Rams have actually covered last two vs. 49ers since late LY (including recent SU draw at Candlestick) and are 4-1 vs. spread last five in series. Rams won and covered first three at home (all as dog) TY before recent loss to Jets. Rams also "over" last five this season, and "over" 4-1 last five meetings vs. 49ers. SF 4-1 vs. line away in 2012. Tech edge-Rams and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
ARIZONA at NY JETS...Cards have lost last seven SU and had dropped six in a row vs. the number prior to Nov. 18 cover vs. Falcons. Whisenhunt "under" 8-3 this season and "under" 14-5-1 last 20 since early 2011. Cards also 9-5 last 14 as dog. Jets "over" 6-4-1 TY and "over" 34-16 last 50 since late 2009. Tech edge-slight to Cards, based on extended Whisenhunt dog marks.
CAROLINA at KANSAS CITY...Panthers have actually covered their last three on the road this season in a pattern very close to Jacksonville's "road-in-Jag" this season, as visiting team has covered last eight Panthers games in 2012 prior to Monday vs. Eagles. Chiefs 2-4 vs. points at Arrowhead TY and 2-5 last seven since late 2011. Tech edge-Panthers, based on team trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at DETROIT...Lions again no covers last three TY, and only 7-15-1 vs. number last 23 on board since early 2011. Detroit 3-7-1 against number last 11 at Ford Field. Lions also "over" 7-3-1 TY, now "over" 30-15-3 last 48 since late in 2009 campaign. Colts have covered 5 of last 6 TY. Tech edge-Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO..."Road in Jag" trend continues, as visitor is 10-1 vs. spread in Jag games this season, with J'ville 5-0 against spread on road. Chan "over" 17-11 since late 2010. Tech edge-Jags and slight to "over," based on road-in-Jag and Bills' "totals" trends.
NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI...Dolphins 1-3 SU and vs. line last four this season. Belichick has won and covered 4 of last 5 at Miami. Road team 8-2 against spread last 10 in series. Belichick "over" 9-2 TY and now "over" 37-12 since late in 2009 campaign. "Overs" last four in series. Tech edge-Patriots and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE...Munchak just 4-8 vs. number last 12 at LP Field. Kubiak 21-8-1 against number last 30 on board, and Kubiak 5-1 vs. line last six in series. "Overs" 13-4 last 17 in series since 2003. Tech edge-Texans and "over," based on team and series trends.
TAMPA BAY at DENVER...Schiano has covered 4 of last 5 and 8 of last 11 this season, he's also 5-1 as dog. Broncos have won last six SU and covered 4 of those. Bucs also "over" 5-2 last seven TY, Denver "over" 5-2 last seven and "over" 34-16 since late in 2009 campaign. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Bucs, based on "totals" and team trends.
PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE...Baltimore has now beaten Steelers three in a row SU. Four of last six meetings decided by exactly three points. Big Ben-less Steel earned narrow cover in 13-10 loss at Heinz Field Nov. 18. Steel only 4-12 vs. line last 16 away from home after loss at Cleveland. Ravens 2-6 against line last 8 at M&T Bank Stadium. Tech edge-slight to Ravens, based on extended Steeler road spread woes.
CLEVELAND at OAKLAND...Browns 6-4-1 vs. line TY, 10-4-1 last 15 and 12-5-1 last 18 against spread. Raiders 1-4 vs. points at home TY, 3-7 last 10 against points as host. Browns also "under" 8-3 in 2012 and 22-9-1 since late in 2010 season, though Raiders "over" 17-10 since last season. Tech edge-Browns, based on team trends.
CINCINNATI at SAN DIEGO...Norv 1-6 SU and 2-5 vs. line last seven TY, Norv also "over" 6-2 last 8 TY, reversing previous "under" string. Marvin Lewis 10-4-1 last 15 vs. spread on road and "over" 9-5 last 14 away. Tech edge-Bengals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS...Something has to give here. Birds 1-9 vs. line TY lost 38-23 vs. Dallas on Nov. 11 at Linc. But Cowboys 0-5 vs. line at home TY, no covers last eight at Arlington, 2-11 vs. points at home since 2011, 2-12 last 14 against points as host. Tech edge-slight to Eagles, based on Cowboys' extended home woes.
NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON (Monday, December 3)...Shan has covered last four vs. Giants including narrow 27-23 SU loss at Met Life Stadium on Oct. 21. But loss by Giants at Cincy on Nov. 11 was first on road after eight straight covers (nine if counting Jets game when G-Men wore white uniforms last December). Giants also "under" 13-5 last 18 since late in 2011 season. Tech edge-Skins and slight to "under," based on series and recent trends.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 13
Vegas Money Moves - Week 13
By Micah Roberts
The Cincinnati Bengals were a team that almost every sharp bettor in Las Vegas held a ticket on to go UNDER 7 ½ season wins. After losing their fifth game of the year on Nov. 4 to the Denver Broncos, they looked to be well on their way to at least nine losses on the season with eight games remaining.
But since that Broncos game, the Bengals have busted out with a vengeance. They shocked bettors and the rest of the league with a dominant 31-13 home win over the Giants and have since won the last two weeks against the Chiefs and Raiders pushing their record to 6-5 with five games remaining. The two-team parlay with the Bengals covering the spread to the UNDER has hit the last three weeks.
There is no doubt about it, the Bengals are hot, and bettors have reacted to it. When the LVH Super Book posted the Chargers as three-point home favorites against the Bengals, it didn’t take long for the game to be pick ’em by Monday. And before long, the Bengals were 1½-point favorites, which is where the line currently sits.
However, the move on the Bengals isn’t just about them playing well, it’s about the Chargers looking awful. The Chargers have lost three in a row and six of their last seven games. They found a new way to lose last week giving up a desperation dump-off 4th and 29 play to the Ravens that allowed them to eventually tie and win the game.
November has typically been the month when Norv Turner saves his job, and it looked like we might be seeing some of the same this year when the Chargers ended a three game slide with a win against the Chiefs, but it’s been all downhill from there.
Here’s a look at some of the other moves of the week:
The big news Saturday morning was the suicide of Chiefs linebacker Jovan Belcher, who shot himself at the Chiefs practice facilities with coaches trying to talk him out of it. The question here is whether or not the game will be played. As far as we know, the Panthers are still on their way and the NFL hasn’t given any hint that the game will be cancelled. Several sports books took the game off the board with a few still dealing the game until final word is given. The Panthers had opened as three-point favorites and were bet up to -3.5 through Friday.
The Packers opened as 10-point home favorites against the Vikings Sunday night before getting blasted 38-10 by the Giants. The LVH reopened the game at -9.5 and Vikings money pushed the game all the way down to -7.5, where it’s been bouncing around on and off -8 for the past few days.
The Cardinals have lost seven games in a row after starting out 4-0, which is good enough to make bettors believe in the Jets this week. The Jets opened as 3-point home favorites and have been bet up to -5.
The Lions have won only one of their four games this season by more than four points, yet they opened as 4 ½-point home favorites against a scrappy Colts squad. Bettors thought the number was too light and bet the Lions up to -5.5. Good luck with that one.
Despite the Jaguars showing drastic improvements offensively the past two weeks with Chad Henne at quarterback, bettors bet the Bills up from 6-point home favorites to -6 ½.
The Patriots opened as 7-point favorites at Miami and hasn’t moved. But the total has, from 51 to 51.5. The Patriots have gone OVER the total in their past nine games after going UNDER in their first two. The Patriots to OVER two-team parlay combination has hit in three of the past four weeks.
The Texans opened as 5½-point road favorites at Tennessee and have been bet up to -6.5, despite looking very sluggish defensively in their past two games, allowing 68 points combined to the Jaguars and Lions.
The game of the week looks to be the Broncos and Buccaneers, where Denver opened as a 7-point favorite and has stood still. The total has been bet up from 50½ to 51. The Broncos have gone OVER the total in five of their last games while the Bucs just had their seven-game OVER streak stopped last week against the Falcons, by four points.
No Ben Roethlisberger means Charlie Batch, which has taken this game -- almost always -3 or -3 ½ -- all the way to Ravens as 7½-point home favorites. The Steelers offense has typically been able to roll well when Big Ben is out, but five turnovers last week gave the Browns short fields to work with against the Steelers defense. Batch looked very rusty and was off target all game.
The Browns are a 1½-point favorite at Oakland and the line hasn’t moved. Can’t remember when the last time Cleveland was laying points on the road.
The Cowboys were posted as 7½-point home favorites over the Eagles on Sunday night. Bettors actually bet the Eagles pushing the game to 7. But after the Eagles loss on Monday night, the LVH reopened the Cowboys as 9-point favorites on Tuesday morning and were quickly bet to -10. They are currently -10.5. The Eagles will be without offensive weapons Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson. The Cowboys have been over a touchdown favorite twice this season and failed to cover each time.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 13
Week 13 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The playoff races in both conferences are starting to take shape heading into the final month of the regular season. The Falcons, Giants, 49ers, Packers, and Bears seem like locks to make the NFC playoffs, while the AFC postseason will feature the Patriots, Texans, Broncos, and Ravens. Who will fill the remaining spots? Several teams trying to make a case for the postseason hit the road, including a Seattle team that needs to win on the road to help its cause.
Seahawks at Bears (-3½, 37½)
When Pete Carroll's team plays in the Pacific Northwest, the Seahawks seem unbeatable (at least this season). Seattle owns a 5-0 SU/ATS mark at CenturyLink Field, but is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the highway following last Sunday's last-second defeat at Miami as three-point favorites. The Seahawks travel to the Windy City this Sunday for a showdown with a Bears' club that is trying to stay healthy, while fighting out a division title with the Packers.
Matt Forte rushed for just 42 yards in last week's blowout of the Vikings at home, but the Pro Bowl running back has been dealing with an ankle injury all season. Forte is expected to play again on Sunday, while the same can't be said for Pro Bowl return man Devin Hester, who suffered a concussion against Minnesota and is not expected to suit up this week. The Bears are just 2-4 ATS the last six games, including three ATS defeats at Soldier Field to the Panthers, Lions, and Texans.
This is Seattle's fourth trip to Chicago since 2010, including a playoff loss in January 2011 as double-digit underdogs. However, the Seahawks have managed a pair of regular season triumphs at Soldier Field, as Seattle knocked off Chicago last December in this same pointspread role, but Jay Cutler missed the game with a thumb injury. The offense has been a problem on the road this season, scoring 16 points or less in four of six away contests.
Vikings at Packers (-7½, 46½)
In spite of last week's blowout loss to the Bears, the Vikings can get right back in the NFC North race with a victory at Lambeau Field. Minnesota enters Sunday's action just one game behind Green Bay for second place, as a victory can be vital for tiebreaker purposes for a potential playoff berth. However, the Vikings will likely be without star receiver Percy Harvin, who is suffering from an ankle injury.
The Packers are fresh off their most humiliating defeat of the season to the Giants last Sunday night, 38-10, snapping a five-game winning streak. Also, Green Bay has cashed the 'under' in three of four contests when the total closes at 50 or higher. Mike McCarthy's club has eclipsed the 'over' in five of seven games with the total below 50, which is the case for Sunday.
Minnesota was swept by Green Bay last season, as the Vikings have dropped four consecutive meetings with the Packers. Leslie Frazier's squad hasn't helped out backers recently as Minnesota owns a 1-4-1 ATS record the last six games, including an 0-3 ATS mark away from home.
Colts at Lions (-5, 51)
This line would have been potentially higher before the season started with Indianapolis' transition to Andrew Luck and Detroit's run to the postseason in 2011. However, the Lions are still favored in spite of being outside the NFC playoff picture, while the Colts are staring a spot to play in January. Indianapolis has put together an impressive 7-4 record with former Stanford quarterback at the helm, as the Colts have won five games by six points or less.
The Colts are also helping backers with a 7-4 ATS ledger, but own a 1-3 ATS mark as a road underdog this season. Indianapolis held off Buffalo last week, 20-13 as two-point favorites, even though the Colts scored just one offensive touchdown in the victory. The task hasn't been easy in interconference action for Indianapolis, but it has won two of three games (all as underdogs) against the NFC North.
The momentum from last season's playoff push has failed to carry over in the Motor City as the Lions are riding a three-game skid heading into Sunday. Detroit lost another close game to a playoff squad in an overtime setback to Houston on Thanksgiving, 34-31, but Lions' backers were thankful by receiving 3½ points as a home 'dog. As a home favorite, the Lions own a disappointing 1-4 ATS record, while going 3-7 ATS as 'chalk' at Ford Field since last October.
Buccaneers at Broncos (-7, 50½)
In probably the most entertaining matchup of the day, Tampa Bay tries to keep up its exciting brand of football against Peyton Manning and the red-hot Broncos. Denver is inching closer to a division title in the mediocre AFC West at 8-3 after holding off Kansas City in an ugly 17-9 triumph as 10-point road favorites. Tampa Bay lost another close game at home to a division rival following a 24-23 defeat to Atlanta last Sunday to fall to 6-5.
The Bucs have been the biggest pointspread surprise in the league with Greg Schiano at the controls, putting together an 8-2-1 ATS mark. Tampa Bay had a streak of seven straight 'overs' snapped in the loss to Atlanta, as the total closed at 50½. However, the Bucs are the league's lone unbeaten team against the number on the road by covering all five away contests.
The Broncos are on cruise control right now, as Manning overcame two early losses to the Falcons and Texans to win seven of the last eight games. Most of that damage has been done on the highway, as the Broncos have won four times during this six-game hot streak away from Sports Authority Field. The key has been the offense, topping the 30-point mark five times in the last six contests, resulting in a 4-2 mark to the 'over.'
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