Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

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Larry NessFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas State vs. Navy
Pick: NavyFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This marks the first-ever meeting between the Navy Midshipmen and the Texas State Bobcats. Navy, which currently operates as an Independent, is set to join the Big East Conference in football beginning in 2015 while the Bobcats are just getting their feet wet in the Western Athletic Conference in 2012. Texas State made quite a ‘splash’ in their 2012 FBS debut when it won 30-13 at Houston (Cougars were 13-1 in 2011) back on Sep 1, as five-TD underdogs. The win was NO fluke, as the Bobcats outgained the Cougars 444-to-326 in yards and 23-15 in FDs, If only, the rest of the 2012 season had gone as well.
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Texas State visits Annapolis 3-6 overall, including 1-3 in WAC play. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen did see their five-game winning streak end last Saturday with a 41-31 road loss at Troy, but the Midshipmen have already been penciled in to take part in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl on Dec 29 vs an opponent from the Pac-12. Navy dug itself a deep hole in the first 17 minutes against the Trojans last week, falling behind 21-0. Navy did make a game of it but still lost by 10 points. The Midshipmen had 328 yards and four TDs on the ground, thanks in large part to QB Keenan Reynolds who ran for 130 yards and scored three TDs. Gee Gee Greene (Navy’s leading rusher with 679 yards on 7.5 YPC) contributed 150 yards and a score on 16 rushing attempts. Bottom line with Navy is this. The insertion of freshman QB Reynolds into the lineup, turned the Middies season around. He led the comeback at Air Force (28-21 OT win on Oct 6) and then led the team to four more wins in a starting role, before last week’s defeat. Navy’s averaged 34.6 PPG in Reynolds’ five starts (4-1) and on the season has completed 59.7% with eight TDs and just one INT in 72 attempts (former QB Trey Miller had one TD and three INTs in 55 attempts) plus has added 535 yards rushing (4.7 YPC) with a team-high nine TDs. Navy ranks 6th in the nation with 274.3 rushing YPG (5.1 YPC) and will have little trouble with a Texas State defense which allowed New Mexico’s triple-option 361 rushing yards (6.1 YPC) in a 35-14 loss Oct 6 in Albuquerque. Texas State is coming off a 62-55 loss to Louisiana Tech at home last Saturday, the team's third defeat in a row and the FIFTH loss in six tries. La Tech ranks just behind Oregon in scoring 53.4 PPG and is No. 1 in total offense, averaging 576.4 YPG. While the Bulldogs are led by QB Colby Cameron (27 TDs / 0 INTs), Texas State will now face the challenge of Navy’s triple-option.
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I hardly think the Bobcats will be able to do much to stop it. Texas State’s offense is fairly balanced and QB Rutherford (64.5% with 11 TDs and 5 INTs) couldn’t help but notice that Troy QBs combined to complete 34-of-40 passes vs Navy last Saturday, for 415 yards! Navy forced just ONE Troy punt last weekend and failed to post a single sack plus had but a handful of tackles for losses. Then again, that's not unusual given that Navy is averaging just 1.5 sacks per game (88th nationally) and 4.5 TFLs (106th). Navy still has Army left on its schedule but that game won’t be played until Dec 8, so there is no danger of a look ahead. In fact, much to the contrary, this is Navy’s regular season home finale and the Midshipmen have won NINE straight, by an average margin of just over three TDs. Since its shocking season-opening win at Houston, Texas St has lost its last three road game by an average of 21.0 PPG. Lay it with Navy.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

Jimmy Boyd
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Ole Miss Rebels +18.5
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While LSU dominated Ole Miss last season to the tune of 52-3, I believe that result to be an aberration. Consider that the Rebels had either won or lost by 17 points or less in each of the five meetings prior. They have won or lost by 17 points or fewer in 13 of the past 15 meetings as well.
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There are plenty of numbers that support taking Ole Miss Saturday. They are 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 meetings and 8-0 against the spread in the last eight meetings at LSU. Also, the road team is on a 13-3 against the spread run in the series and the underdog is on a 10-2 against the spread run.
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Teams headed up by Hugh Freeze have been terrific investments as they are 17-5 against the spread all-time. It is also worth noting that LSU is just 9-21 against the spread in home games against conference opponents under coach Les Miles. It has won these games by only 9.4 points on average.
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It should also be mentioned that LSU hasn’t been a reliable investment when laying big points at home. In fact, it is just 5-16 against the spread in home games when valued as a favorite of 14.5 to 21.0. points the last two decades. It has won by just 11.1 points on average in these games.
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Ole Miss will be extremely motivated here, not only by last season’s embarrassing loss but by the chance to become bowl eligible. Take the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

Black WidowFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas State -12FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Kansas State Wildcats continue going under the radar despite their 10-0 record. Nobody believe in this team at the beginning of the year, and there are still many who don't believe they are a national title contender. That's just fine with the Wildcats as they continue to prove their doubters wrong while using it as motivation. Week after week, this team doesn't get the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. I believe that is the case again Saturday as they should be a heavier favorite against the hapless Baylor Bears. Kansas State will be able to score at will against a Baylor defense that is giving up 39.4 points/game while ranking 122nd in the country in total defense at 519.8 yards/game. The Wildcats will be able to come up with stops on third down to force punts, just as they have been doing all season. They're also likely to win the turnover battle because they do not make mistakes. Kansas State has gone an insane 8-1-1 ATS in all games this season, 17-4-1 ATS in its last 22 games overall, and 8-0 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Wildcats and lay the points.

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Joseph D'AmicoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NC State vs. Clemson    
Play: ClemsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Two words…Tajh Boyd. The QB has a 68% CR, 2941 YP, 28 TDs with only 9 INTs, and 5 scores on 363 yards on the ground. Receivers Watkins and Hopkins have combined for 1656 YR and 16 TDs while Ellington has amassed 838 YR and 8 scores. The team ranks 6th in the nation in scoring, averaging 42.9 PPG, and winning 6 in a row SU and their L7 ATS (covering their L5 as DD favorites). NC State hasn't covered a single road game this season, going 0-3-1 against the number away from home. Two weeks ago, they were thrashed by Virginia, 33-6, a game in which they were a 10 1/2 pt fav. Without much of a running game, the Wolf Pack are in trouble here. Especially due to the fact that Clemson will be in "revenge mode" after dropping LYs meeting, 37-13 (after already clinching the ACC Title game). The Tigers are 4-0 ATS their L4 games played vs. teams with a winning record and 25-10 ATS their L35 Conference games. Take Clemson.

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Mike DavisFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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USC vs. UCLA    
Play: USCFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rivalry game with two teams that don't like each other -- edge goes to the team with the most talent. Both teams will come ready to play and the emotion of the game will equal out. With that being said, USC certainly has the most talent and many believe they have underachieved this season.
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Matt Barkley stuck around for his senior year and it hasn't turned out as planned. However, there is still at least one big thing left to do: BEAT UCLA! That is certainly the battle cry this week as the senior quarterback plays in his last game vs the Bruins. USC has defeated UCLA 106-21 in Barkley's three years at QB including a 50-0 stomping last season. The game will be closer this year but Barkley's team will once again be victorious.
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Both coaches have huge egos and this game means a lot to both sides as far as recruiting goes. UCLA is on the up-and-up but they aren't there yet. USC has too much talent and they win this one by 10-17 points.

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Johnny DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UNLV +1FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Going against Wyoming again. Last week we felt New Mexico was the right play and still think so despite the loss. They had multiple chances in the final minutes to win and cover and actually out-gained Wyoming 551-429 in total offense and 396-55 on the ground. UNLV turned the ball over four times in a 33-11 loss to Colorado State, which is a good thing for us. A fluke Wyoming win + UNLV having a horrible game = GREAT VALUE. Mind you, UNLV rolled New Mexico 35-7. Take UNLV.

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Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston vs. Marshall
Play: Marshall
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Houston fits a negative system here that pertains to teams in the last 2 weeks of the season that were bowl teams last season and are off back to back losses, vs an opponent off a road loss. Marshall will look to rebound here after last weeks loss to UAB. They catch a Houston team that has been awful allowing 37 or more points in each road game this season and an amazing 72 against SMU in a game where they turned the ball over almost 10 times. The Cougars are 1-5 ats in games after Tulsa and have failed to cover 8 of the last 9 final conference road games. The Number one running back in Simms most probably will not play and may not be effective if he does due to injury. Marshall has covered every time in their last home game with revenge of late and has won 18 of the last 20 in their final home game. This one could bet ugly. Make it Marshall.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

Teddy Covers

California at Oregon State
Play: Oregon State

Jeff Tedford has been a great head coach for Cal during his eleven years on the job. Let’s not forget that before he got here, the Bears went 1-10 in 2000, 3-8 in 2000 and 4-7 in 1999; an absolute bottom feeder throughout the Tom Holmoe era. Cal’s gone bowling in nine of their last ten seasons, and spent several years competing with the likes of USC and Oregon for PAC-10 (at the time) supremacy.

But this year has been a disaster for the Bears, right from the get-go when they lost at home to Nevada in their opener. The Bears are 3-8; their worst record in the Tedford era by a wide margin. They’ve lost four straight including last week’s backbreaker at home against Oregon – a game in which they competed for a half, then fell completely apart after halftime. This is a truly meaningless season finale on the road for a losing team with an embattled head coach. And it’s surely worth noting that Cal hasn’t had a single bye week this year, one of only two of the 124 FBS schools (UNLV is the other) to finish their season on Saturday – to call this team ‘banged up’ right now is something of an understatement.

Cal’s starting QB Zack Maynard won’t play again this week, leaving struggling frosh Allan Brigdrod (9-21-113 with two picks against Oregon last week) to man the quarterback position in his first collegiate road start. That’s extremely bad news considering that Bridgrod will be playing behind a struggling offensive line that has allowed the third most sacks in college football this year. Oregon State, on the other hand, will get multi-year starter Sean Mannion back in the lineup on Saturday Night, facing a defense that’s allowed 49+ twice in the last three weeks.  The Beavers beat the Bears 35-0 on Cal’s most recent visit to Corvallis and a similar result here would be no surprise to this bettor!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

Sean Higgs

South Florida vs. Miami (Fla)    
Play: South Florida

Will gladly grab the points here from the perceived 'little brother.' Fact is, Miami won 6-3 last year, and the Bulls scored a 23-20 win as 14pt dogs the year before. South Florida looks at this game like a their super bowl. Miami is in off a gut-wrenching loss to Virginia, giving up a TD with just 6 seconds left. Not sure how they will respond to that knowing they have a self-enforced bowl ban. Take the points and grab the +200 while you are at it.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

Bobby Conn

Northwestern vs. Michigan State    
Play: Northwestern

Michigan State is a tough defensive team, but they just don't have the offensive firepower to cover a touchdown spread against an under-rated Northwestern Wildcats team. Spartans are coming off a bye, which in college football means very little but the oddsmakers still factor it in. Senior day for the Spartans which means more emotional play, which I think harms kids more than helps. Small value today with Northwestern +7.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

Ray Monohan

Wake Forest vs. Notre Dame    
Play: Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons have had some ugly losses but they are just one win away from becoming bowl eligible with two games to play. These 2 teams met just last year. Note Dame took the meeting 24-17 in Winston-Salem, N.C. This one has TRAP written all over it doesn' it? Notre Dame has a big showdown at Southern California on the horizon. The Deacons will catch the Irish napping.

The Demon Deacons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss, are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss, and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win, and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Really like the road team on Saturday to keep it interesting. Of course in the end the Irish will go to 11-0.

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Dave Cokin

Ohio State at Wisconsin
Pick: Ohio State

Wisconsin annihilated Indiana last week and they also recently brutalized Purdue. But this Badgers team has struggled against better opposition. Ohio State can thwart that Badgers running game, and if they do that, it should result in a win. Buckeyes plus the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

SPORTS WAGERS

This fight pits former sparring partners against one another, with both having trained together at Xtreme Couture. Kampmann helped Hendricks with his striking while the former NCAA wrestling champion Hendricks worked with Kampmann on his wrestling. This presents an interesting dynamic with both fighters being so familiar with one another and having knowledge of each other’s weaknesses.

Coming into this fight with an impressive TKO victory over Jake Ellenberger, Kampmann (20-5-0) is arguably the most well rounded fighter in the welterweight division. Renowned for his accurate striking ability, “The Hitman” also possesses underrated wrestling skills and sneaky submissions. Though he has a tendency to take heavy damage in most fights, he has also displayed a granite chin with the best example being his last second submission of Thiago Alves, who had been dominating the majority of the fight.

Johny Hendricks (13-1-0) is an excellent wrestler with knockout power. He is best known for knocking out the notoriously tough Jon Fitch in only 12 seconds. Hendricks comes into this fight off of a decision victory over Josh Koscheck. Though Hendricks has the edge in the wrestling department, Kampmann is more than capable of keeping the fight standing where he holds a big advantage. We feel that Kampmann will be able to stuff Hendricks’ takedown attempts and use his speed and accuracy to pick him apart with combinations and jabs. Knowing that he has a solid chin, Kampmann will be more than happy to exchange with Hendricks despite the power that Hendricks possesses. Should Hendricks manage to take Kampmann down, we trust that Kampmann’s ground skills are more than capable of keeping him in the fight and possibly even pulling out a submission victory.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

Andy Iskoe

Bowling Green / Kent St. Under 47

This selection is all about the numbers -- numbers that show Bowling Green going a perfect 9 for 9 UNDER in their lined games this season.  The combination of an outstanding defense and a rather pedestrian offense has seen the Falcons stay UNDER the Total in each of its lined games this season.  Kent is a solid team but it is unlikely that they'll be able to dent the BG defense for more than 14 to 17 points while Bowling Green is likely to be in the same range against the Kent defense and with a Total in the mid to upper 40s the UNDER still carries plenty of value.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

JR O'Donnell 

Indiana +17

We follow the Penn St Lions program real close boys as "We will fire on the Indy Hooisers + 17 as the Hooisers were embarrassed last week @ Wisky 62-14... The Lions have a big game with Wisky on deck and we feel that the well coached Kevin Wilson ...Nc Heels grad Hooisers can & will move the rock through the air vs the Lions... Power rated @ Penn St - 10 flat here ....Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday November, 17

Charlie Sports

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Play: Nebraska Cornhuskers

The (6-4) Minnesota Golden Gophers of the Big 10 legends division will take on the (8-2) Nebraska Cornhuskers of the same division in 2012 NCAA Football action. Nebraska won 41-14 last season but Minnesota is a much better football team. The Golden Gophers are 5-5 against the spread their last 10 Football games and are coming off of a road win at Illinois last week, while Nebraska is 5-4-1 ATS this season. The Cornhuskers are in contention for a Legends divsion title, but needs some help. Nebraska gets the home win.

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