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College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 11/16

College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 11/16

HAWAII (1 - 8) at AIR FORCE (5 - 5) - 11/16/2012, 9:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
HAWAII is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.
HAWAII is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HAWAII is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
AIR FORCE is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

FLA INTERNATIONAL (2 - 8) at FLA ATLANTIC (3 - 7) - 11/16/2012, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
FLA ATLANTIC is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
FLA ATLANTIC is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida International's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida International's last 5 games on the road
Florida Atlantic is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
Florida Atlantic is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games at home

Hawaii is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Hawaii is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Air Force's last 6 games
Air Force is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

Hawaii at Air Force
Hawaii: 23-8 Over off a conference loss
Air Force: 7-17 ATS as a favorite

Florida International at Florida Atlantic
Florida Int: 2-13 ATS off a bye week
Florida Atl: 8-1 ATS as an underdog

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 11/16

Hawaii at Air Force
By Brian Edwards

Norm Chow finally got his first head-coaching job when he was hired at Hawaii in January. Things haven’t gone according to his wishes, however.

When the Warriors take the field tonight at Air Force, they will be looking to snap a seven-game losing streak both straight up and against the spread. Their only win came over an FCS foe, Lamar, in a 54-2 home win in a non-lined affair.

Most books have installed Air Force (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) as a 21½-point favorite with a total of 61½. A few offshore books have the Warriors available on the money line for payout of 11/1 or 12/1.

Troy Calhoun’s team has lost back-to-back games, including a 28-9 loss last week at San Diego St. as a seven-point underdog. The Falcons enjoyed a 393-268 advantage in total offense, but they couldn’t overcome four turnovers.

The 37 combined points stayed way ‘under’ the 57 ½-point total.

Air Force has won four of its five home games, going 2-3 versus the number. During Calhoun’s six-year tenure, the Falcons are 11-16 ATS as home favorites. Even worse, they are 3-13 ATS in such spots since 2010.

Air Force is led by senior quarterback Connor Dietz, who has completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 1,095 yards with a 7/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Dietz has rushed for 606 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 5.2 yards per carry.

Senior RB Cody Getz paces Air Force in rushing, producing 1,006 yards and eight TDs. Getz averages 7.3 YPC.

The Falcons are scoring 30.6 points per game and giving up 28.9 PPG.

Hawaii (1-8 SU, 1-7 ATS) is coming off a 49-14 loss to Boise St. as a 28-point home underdog. Mike Edwards had a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to tie the game at 7-7 early in the first quarter, but that was the highlight of the game for the Warriors. They didn’t score again until John Lister’s one-yard TD plunge with 5:35 remaining.

Hawaii committed five turnovers against the Broncos, who played turnover-free football.

UH has lost by 15 or more points in each of its five road assignments, going 1-4 ATS. The Warriors have lost by scores of 49-10, 47-0, 52-14, 42-27 and 45-10. They are ranked No. 112 in the nation in scoring, averaging a pedestrian 19.6 points per game.

Things aren’t any better on defense, either. UH is No. 123 in scoring defense, giving up 43.9 PPG.

One of the few bright spots for UH has been redshirt freshman running back Will Gregory, who has rushed for 561 yards and two TDs, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Starting QB Sean Schroeder has struggled with a 9/10 TD-INT ratio.

Hawaii’s third-leading receiver, sophomore Trevor Davis, is listed as ‘questionable’ with a neck injury. Davis has 17 receptions for 235 yards and two touchdowns.

Air Force senior linebacker Alex Means, who had 77 tackles and six sacks last year, is listed as ‘questionable’ with a thigh injury. Also, the Falcons have three other starting defensive players (safety Anthony Wooding, safety Jay Fullam and LB Jamil Cooks) who are ‘out’ with season-ending injuries.

The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Falcons, 2-2 in their four home games with a total. The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for Hawaii, but the ‘under’ is 3-2 its road assignments.

These teams haven’t met since 2001 when Hawaii spanked the Falcons by a 52-30 count as a 12-point home favorite.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

-North Carolina captured a 37-13 win last night at Virginia as a 3½-point road favorite. The Cavaliers fell to a pathetic 1-9-1 ATS.

There is a second college football game tonight in South Florida as Florida Atlantic hosts Fla. International as a 1 ½-point home favorite. The Owls and Panthers have combined for a 5-15 SU record this year. ESPNU will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

Nevada has failed to cover the number in six consecutive games and eight of its last nine. The Wolf Pack is favored by 10 Saturday at New Mexico.

Southern Cal running back Silas Redd is ‘questionable’ at UCLA due to an ankle injury. Redd, who missed last week’s win over Arizona St., has rushed for 732 yards and nine TDs, averaging 5.4 YPC.

Northwestern will be without two defensive starters at Michigan St. LB Collin Ellis is ‘out’ with an undisclosed injury and Nick VanHoose will sit due to a back ailment. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS, while the Spartans have limped to a 3-7 ATS mark.

The nation’s top-five ATS teams are Utah St. (9-0-1), Fresno St. (10-1), Northwestern (9-1), Kansas St. (8-1-1) and Ball St. (8-2).

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 11/16

NCAAF Week 12

Hawai'i is awful, 0-8 vs I-A teams; only game they covered was a 49-10 (+40) loss at USC- they've been outscored 77-10 in first half of last two games. Only one of their five road losses was by less than 35 points. Air Force lost its last two games, is just 1-5 vs spread as a favorite (1-2 as a home favorite). Warriors haven't played Air Force since 2001. MWC home favorites are 10-5 vs spread. Four of last five Hawai'i games went over total, five of last six Air Force games stayed under.

FAU covered its last games (2-6 SU) but was underdog in all eight; this is only their third home game vs I-A opponent (1-1). FIU (-17) pounded FAU 41-7 LY, ending five-game skid in local rivalry where faves covered five of last six games; Panthers lost last couple visits here, 21-9/28-21. FIU lot seven of last eight games; they're 2-2 as road underdogs. This is a busride game, so not like any travel involved. Sun Belt home favorites are 5-15 against spread. Three of last four FAU games went over total.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 11/16

Hawaii: Most Costly Bet In College Football Right Now

When you're talking Hawaii, it doesn't get any worse for bettors right now. The Warriors are tied with Illinois for having the longest ATS (against the spread) losing streak in the nation at a depressing seven games.

Hawaii is getting more than three touchdowns for the third straight game Friday where it's an underdog of 21.5 points at Air Force.

Here's a look at the numbers to see just how bad the Rainbows are this year:

-hey have the second-worst scoring defense in the country (43 ppg against) and the worst red zone defense. They haven't held an opponent to fewer than 42 points on the road this season.

They own the 4th-worst total offense in the nation (295.22 ypg).

They own the worst turnover margin in the nation (-1.89). Only Houston and Idaho have lost more turnovers this season than Hawaii's 28 and the Warriors have at least two fumbles in every game vs. FBS teams this year.

Hawaii is fourth-worst in passing efficiency - a depressing figure for a Norm Chow offense. (The team just hired Utah QB Jordan Wynn this week as QB coach to start in January).

The Warriors rank 106th in rushing defense, another troubling number considering Air Force runs almost every play and ranks second in the nation in rushing (335.3 ypg).

Hawaii has been out-gained by at least 170 yards in all but one game this season. (Outgained by 60 yards against New Mexico).

Umm, strangely Hawaii is the best kickoff return team in the WAC and 13th best in the nation with 26.21 yards per return.

Hawaii has scrapped negotiations for a Dec. 7 home game against Temple. (As one Tweep pointed out, this game was never officially on the schedule, though.)

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 11/16

Florida Atlantic: Quietly Piling Up Money For Bettors
By Jon Campbell

The Florida Atlantic Owls have been one of the best kept secrets in sports betting this season. They’ve now amazingly covered the spread in eight straight games and rank in a tie as the sixth-most profitable team in the country for college football bettors at 8-2 ATS (against the spread).

The Owls have done it all quietly, tucked away neatly in the unheralded Sun Belt Conference, where the only games appearing on ESPN are on the “U” and they are played on days that end in “riday”. The Owls are also just 3-7 straight up this season, a record typically not associated with raking in profits for bettors.

Well the secret is out, for those who have been listening. FAU opened as a 1-point underdog for Friday’s home game against FIU in the Shula Bowl and sharps quickly propped the Owls up to a 2-point favorite.

It marks the first time FAU has been favored against an FBS squad since Nov. 13, 2010 when the team was an 11.5-point fave against La.-Lafayette. The closest the Owls came to being favored this season versus an FBS foe was when they were a 4.5-point dog on Oct. 20 at Southern Alabama and lost 37-34 in OT.

FAU has been slow to get rolling this season under new coach Carl Pelini with new systems while playing in a brand new stadium. But Pelini told the Palm Beach Post recently he thinks his team can win its final three games.

The Owls ended a 15-game road losing streak with a 37-28 win as a 15.5-point underdog over the weekend. One clear sign of improvement is in the yardage battle. FAU was badly out-gained in yards in its first three games against FBS competition this year. But then it lost the yardage battle by a mere 40 yards combined in its next two games and has now won the yardage war in three of its past four games.

One area they’ll want to clean up on to get past FIU is defense, though. FAU hasn’t held an opponent to fewer than 24 points in any of its past five games.

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Re: College Football Betting News and Notes Friday 11/16

Air Force, Hawaii Battle In Mountain West Matchup On Friday
By: Michael Robinson

Hawaii Warriors at Air Force Falcons
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 11/16/2012 at 9:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Air Force -22½, O/U 63
Television: ESPN2

Hawaii Warriors: The Warriors (1-8 straight-up, 1-7 against the spread) are having an awful season in the Mountain West and at the betting window, as their only win remains a 54-2 rout of FCS school Lamar back on September 16th. New coach Norm Chow is considered a bright offensive mind, but team scoring (18.6 points per game) ranks 112th nationally. Chow is expected to give Jeremy Higgins his first start at quarterback this year after Sean Schroeder got the nod the first nine games. The offense will be hurt either way with leading rusher Will Gregory (561 yards) doubtful due to a suspension (click to check updated college football injury report). Hawaii’s defense has also been extremely disappointing this season, surrendering 43.3 ppg (119th nationally), causing the "over" to go 5-3, including 4-1 in the last five games.

Air Force Falcons: The Falcons (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) are coming off road losses at Army (41-21) and San Diego State (28-9). That puts their road record at just 1-4 SU and ATS this season. Coach Troy Calhoun has done a much better job getting his guys to play at Falcon Stadium, going 4-1 SU (2-3 ATS). Air Force has the nation’s second-ranked rushing offense (335.3 yards per game) with the option attack, but rarely throws the ball with senior quarterback Connor Dietz. The defense has had a lot of trouble stopping the run this year (221.5 ypg, ranked 109th) and will benefit if Gregory is out. Air Force is 0-3 ATS (2-1 SU) the last three games against Hawaii, but the most recent meeting was back in 2001, as the Warriors just moved to the MWC this season.

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