MNF Betting News and Notes 11/12

MNF Betting News and Notes 11/12

KANSAS CITY (1 - 7) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 3) - 11/12/2012, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


KANSAS CITY vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh   
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games


Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS away off a road loss by 14+ points
Pittsburgh: 10-23 ATS as a favorite of 10+ points

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Re: MNF Betting News and Notes 11/12

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 10
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5, 43)

Steelers' speedy injuries vs. Chiefs’ new DC

Injuries are the great equalizer in the NFL, and with the Steelers suffering multiple mishaps to their speediest players, Pittsburgh could be in slow motion Monday night. The Steelers will be without road runners KR Chris Rainey and WR Antonio Brown and RB Jonathan Dwyer is nursing a groin injury which held him out of Week 9. The loss of those horses could have Pittsburgh leaning heavily on smash-mouth RB Isaac Redman. That’s not a bad thing, but it’s awful tough to cover all those points when you're slowly creeping down the field and keeping the clock on the move.

Kansas City should see a little more life on defense this Monday with head coach Romeo Crennel handing the stop unit over to Gary Gibbs. Crennel is dodging media criticism with the move, but letting Gibbs call the shots could shake things up with the assistant looking to make a name for himself. We’re not saying Kansas City – which sits 17th in total yards against and 30th in points allowed – is suddenly going to be a brick wall. But anything is better than the first nine weeks of the season.

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Re: MNF Betting News and Notes 11/12

NFL Week 10

Chiefs (1-7) @ Steelers (5-3) —
Pittsburgh OC Haley was dumped as Chiefs’ HC during last season; hard feelings exist between him and KC front office. KC coach Crennel hired former Oklahoma HC Gibbs to be new DC during bye week, with Crennel becoming more of overseer of program; Chiefs lost last five games (1-4 vs spread), scoring two offensive TD’s on last 42 drives- they still haven’t led any game in regulation this season, and were down 24-6 in only game they’ve won. Steelers won/covered last three games, allowing only four TD’s on 28 drives; they rallied from 10 down in 4th quarter to win in Swamp last week. This is just Chiefs’ second visit to Pittsburgh since ’89; their last was a 45-6 loss in 2006. Steelers won last meeting 13-9 LY at Arrowhead. AFC North teams are 2-8 vs spread as non-divisional favorites, 2-4 at home; AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-7, 2-5 on foreign soil. Six of eight Chief games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.

Armadillosports.com

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Re: MNF Betting News and Notes 11/12

NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 10
By Covers.com

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-11.5, 42)

Pittsburgh's defense ranks first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense last week despite the absence of Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS during the losing skid.

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Re: MNF Betting News and Notes 11/12

Monday Night Football: Chiefs at Steelers
By Covers.com

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5, 41)

If Kansas City Chiefs coach Romeo Crennel crunches the numbers long enough, he might decide not to let his team board the plane for Monday night's game at the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers. The early-season struggles appear to be a thing of the past for Pittsburgh, which has won three straight games, including a 24-20 comeback win on the road over the reigning Super Bowl champion New York Giants a week ago.

If that's not enough, the Chiefs haven't won in Pittsburgh since 1986. Adding to the daunting task is that Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. One subplot is that Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley will be facing the team that fired him as head coach after 13 games last season, opening the door for Crennel to supplant him.

LINE: Steelers -12.5, O/U 41

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a 90 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 8 mph.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-7): Kansas City's season of misery continued with a 31-13 loss at San Diego on Nov. 1. The Chiefs committed four turnovers to boost their league-worst total to 29 and managed only 289 yards - a good chunk of it coming late in the fourth quarter. The lopsided defeat prompted Crennel to relinquish his duties as defensive coordinator so he can spend more time with the entire team to "get this thing right." Matt Cassel will make his second straight start since reclaiming his job when Brady Quinn suffered a concussion. Kansas City had the league's best running game at one point this season, but Jamaal Charles has rushed for only 83 yards in his last three games.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-3): The running game is what has turned things around for Pittsburgh. Isaac Redman gashed the Giants for 147 yards and a touchdown to follow up back-to-back 100-yard performances by Jonathan Dwyer, who sat out last week due to injury. Pittsburgh's defense has also come alive, ranking first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense despite the absence of Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 16 touchdowns against four interceptions and is one of six quarterbacks with a passer rating above 100.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Steelers' last six home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Pittsburgh forced four turnovers in winning at Kansas City 13-9 last season.

2. Crennel is 0-8 all-time against the Steelers.

3. Kansas City, which is allowing 30.0 points per game, cut CB Stanford Routt this week. He was signed to a three-year, $18 million contract in the offseason.

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Re: MNF Betting News and Notes 11/12

MNF - Chiefs at Steelers
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

It's never a good sign when the Monday night bail-out game is showing a double-digit number. That's the case this week when the 5-3 Steelers host the woeful 1-7 Chiefs at Heinz Field, as Pittsburgh goes for its fourth consecutive victory. All Kansas City is seeking is a measly lead in a game, which amazingly through eight contests, the Chiefs have never held an advantage.

So how have the Chiefs never led but own one victory on the season? Easy, Romeo Crennel's club overcame a 24-6 deficit at New Orleans in Week 3 to upend the Saints in overtime, 27-24. Even the worst teams in the NFL don't normally lose by double-digits in three straight games, but Kansas City has accomplished that dubious goal following a 31-13 defeat at San Diego last Thursday. The Chiefs trailed by four heading into the final quarter, but the Chargers scored three touchdowns (two defensive) in a three-minute span to put the game away.

Todd Haley coached the Chiefs to a division title in 2010, but was fired with three games remaining in the 2011 season. Haley found work in the offseason as the offensive coordinator of the Steelers, as Pittsburgh has scored at least 23 points in six of eight games this season. The Steelers are two late meltdowns on the road from being potentially 7-1 after dropping three-point decisions at Oakland and Tennessee in the favorite role.

Pittsburgh is coming off its most impressive victory over the season by stunning the defending champion Giants, 24-20 to cash outright as 3½-point underdogs. The Steelers flew into New Jersey on game day due to the lack of availability of hotels in the area thanks to the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Mike Tomlin's team fell behind, 20-10 heading into the fourth quarter, but the Steelers rallied for two touchdowns to pick up their third straight win. Ben Roethlisberger engineered both drives, starting with a 51-yard touchdown strike to Mike Wallace, followed by a one-yard scoring plunge by Isaac Redman to give the Steelers the advantage for good.

The Chiefs have covered each of the last two meetings with the Steelers as 10½-point underdogs. In 2009, Pittsburgh went into Arrowhead Stadium and was tripped up in overtime, 27-24, in spite of out-gaining Kansas City, 516-282. The Steelers escaped last season once again in western Missouri, 13-9, as Kansas City was held to three field goals in the loss. The last time Kansas City won in Pittsburgh came all the way back in 1986 at Three Rivers Stadium, but it is only the Chiefs' fourth trip to the Steel City in this span.

This is the fourth primetime game for the Steelers this season, but the first one coming on Monday night. Pittsburgh played on the highway the first three times, losing at Denver and Tennessee, while knocking off Cincinnati. For some reason, Monday night football is coming to Heinz Field for the first time since 2008 when the Steelers knocked off the Ravens in overtime, 23-20, but Baltimore cashed as six-point 'dogs. Under Tomlin, the Black and Gold has won five of six games on Mondays, with the lone loss coming at San Francisco last December.

The Steelers have profited as home favorites of at least nine points in Tomlin's tenure, cashing in nine of 14 opportunities since 2007. This is the first time in 2012 that Pittsburgh is a favorite of this magnitude, while going 'under' in all four occurrences at Heinz Field last season as 'chalk' of double-digits.

For as bad as the Chiefs have been this season, Kansas City is receiving at least 10 points for the first time. Since last season, the Chiefs have compiled a 5-2 ATS record as a 'dog of at least nine points, as four of the covers came after a loss of double-digits the previous week.

Pittsburgh is listed as 12½-point favorites at most books, but the public will likely drive this number to 13 by kickoff. The total is set at 41 with Kansas City's putrid offense, while there is a 60% chance of rain at Heinz Field. The game kicks off at 8:40 PM EST and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

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Re: MNF Betting News and Notes 11/12

Monday Night Football: Chiefs at Steelers
By Fairway Jay

The Chiefs have let us down enough already this season and we won't be betting on Kansas City Monday Night when they visit Pittsburgh. The Chiefs strength in running the ball (150 yards and 32x/game) figures to be slowed by the Steelers stop unit that allows just 88 rushing ypg. Pittsburgh enters this contest with the NFL's #1 defense in yards allowed (262 ypg) and passing defense (174 ypg). Quarterback Matt Cassel is back under center for the failing featherheads and once behind, the bottom tier QB is not capable of bringing the Chiefs back. This isn't the all-time worst defense that KC rallied to beat at New Orleans. The Steelers stop unit should control the Chiefs offense throughout this contest and drop the Chiefs to 1-8 this season; tied for the NFL's worst record with Jacksonville.

From a technical perspective, these non-division Monday Night games with big favorites are usually blowouts, as double-digit favorites are 18-0 SU and 15-3 ATS when hosting a sub-.400 team. So despite Pittsburgh's failures in this big favorite Monday Night role the past five years (0-3 ATS), it's time to lay it if you're going to play it. Note too that KC clueless coach Crennel was 0-8 vs. the Steelers as coach of Cleveland and that Pittsburgh is 14-0 SU at home on Monday Night since 1991.

Adding to the Chiefs pathetic play has been off the charts turnover problems. Kansas City leads the league with a negative 20 turnover margin (-20). The next closest turnover troubled team is the Eagles (-11). The Chiefs have 29 give-aways, already surpassing their total from last season. Coach Crennel has now decided to threaten his players with the Romeo rule, saying that the first player to have a turnover against the Steelers will be benched. That includes poor playing QB Cassel, who would them be replace by even less capable Quinn (concussion) or Ricky Stanzi. Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is one of the best and should have no problem creating pressure packages and zone blitz schemes from his strong linebackers. The unheralded pair inside of Lawrence Timmons and Larry Foote will assist in initially slowing the Chiefs running game and put them in a position of weakness to pass.

So can the Steelers control the line of scrimmage and have success moving the ball consistently against a Chiefs defense? Coach Crennel removed himself from defensive duties and the defense is now being coordinated by the linebackers coach. More change and issues for a team with poor leadership and direction. Kansas City's defense allows 348 yards per game, which does not translate to the 30 ppg they allow; another indication on the impact of turnovers. Since Week 7, the Steelers ground game has become a strength again thanks to the improved play and health of the offensive line. Pittsburgh's ground game has rushed for 158, 140 and 167 yards the past three weeks while averaging 30 carries per game. Two of those three victories came on the road, and rather than a potential letdown, I would favor the strong momentum to steamroll a weak opponent. Running back Isaac Redmon carried the load in last week's win over the NY Giants with 26 carries for 146 yards. Leading rusher Jonathan Dwyer returns this week while RB Rashard Mendenhall is still hurting (Achilles). Big Ben is having a MVP caliber season with 275 passing ypg, 16 TD's, 4 INT's and a QB rating over 101. He's spreading the ball to his speed receivers and TE Heath Miller is a top target in the red zone with a team-leading 6 touchdowns. Kansas City's defense allows a league-worst 8.9 yards per pass attempt with opponent QB rating of 106; also worst in the NFL. If offensive coordinator Haley allows Big Ben reign to roll the pocket and pass more, this game could be a first half knockout and 'over' early.

The Steelers are 3-0 at home this season with a 15+ point wins over the Jets and Redskins. Pittsburgh beat the Chiefs last season 13-9 at Kansas City as a double-digit favorite in a division-sandwich letdown spot. Oh, and the Chiefs had 4 turnovers that game with Tyler Palko continuing the poor play at quarterback.

The motivation should be plenty strong as the Steelers can not only close the gap on division-leading Baltimore to one game, but separate themselves in the wild card race by two games over the next closest challengers. No doubt former Chiefs head coach Todd Haley will enjoy the chance to put a pounding on the former team and brass that fired him last season and Haley may allow Big Ben to open up the offense. That's the only concern for playing under the total, as that was the initial preferred total play but note the line has dropped sharply down to 40 with weather now calling for 75% chance of scattered thunderstorms and winds up to 17 mph.

While some point to a potential letdown following Pittsburgh's win over the super bowl champs and a first-place showdown on deck when the Steelers host the Ravens next Sunday, note that Baltimore buried another weak AFC West opponent yesterday in their 55-20 onslaught over Oakland. Pittsburgh failed to close out road games at Tennessee and Oakland, but they should have few problems closing or extending at home against the Chiefs with only the weather or their own turnover troubles slowing the Steelers.

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