Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Chris Jordan

My free winner is Seattle (-6) at home against the struggling New York Jets, who can't seem to find an identity on offense with their brewing quarterback controversy.

I'm sure when Seattle coach Pete Carroll was coaching Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez at Southern Cal, he never envisioned what his former pupil is enduring this season. Well, maybe he did, to a degree, and that's why Carroll would have rather had him play his senior season instead of entering the NFL draft as a junior.

I'm pretty sure, though, Carroll wouldn't be putting Sanchez through what New York coach Rex Ryan has been since the start of the season. Nevertheless, with the Jets' season seemingly spiraling away, as they've lost four of their last five, I think this is a good spot for the Seahawks to take advantage and go into their bye week after two straight home wins.

Quite frankly, I've been more impressed by Seattle's rookie quarterback Russell Wilson than I have been with Sanchez or his backup, Tim Tebow. Playing at home this season, Wilson has nine touchdowns, no interceptions and a league-best passer rating of 120.2, winning all four starts.

Complementing Wilson out of the backfield is running back Marshawn Lynch, the No. 2 rusher in the NFL with 881 yards. Last week versus the Vikings he recorded his fifth 100-yard game. With another 119 yards he'll become the first Seahawks running back with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons since Shaun Alexander in 2004 and '05.

Even more impressive than having two electrifying, skill-position players on an offense that actually ranks 29th in the league, is knowing Seattle comes into this game with the NFL's fourth-best defense overall. And that won't bode well for the Jets' 27th-ranked offense that will be introduced to the "The Legion of Boom.

The depth of the Seattle defense is scary, and the fact the Seahawks have towering members in the secondary honestly makes this a terrible matchup for the Jets. I expect Seattle to take advantage on every spot on the field, beginning with the trenches since the Jets have allowed a glaring number of sacks. In five losses, Sanchez has been sacked 16 times. Couple that with the fact Seattle defensive end Chris Clemons has totaled 13 sacks over the past 16 games he's played and that spells trouble for Sanchez.

Again, this is the right time and perfect spot for the Seahawks to score a momentous win before their bye week..

4♦ SEATTLE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Matt Rivers

Sunday NFL free play on the Over  (53') in the Falcons-Saints NFC South clash in New Orleans.

I am well aware that Atlanta has been a predominantly Under team this year - 3 of their last 4 and 5 of 8 overall this year staying low - but something happens to the Falcons when they set foot against the Saints in the Superdome, as each of the last 4 series meetings between the teams contested in the Crescent City have ALL played Over the total.

As for New Orleans, the Saints did hold Under on Monday night against the Eagles, but their defense still gave up over 400 yards for a record-setting eighth straight game and they are an accident waiting to happen each and every time they are asked to stop someone. Atlanta has been able to score 23 points or more in all but last week's game against Dallas this season, and each of the Falcons last four division games have played Over the total.

Make it five-for-five Over between the Falcons and Saints in the Big Easy this Sunday afternoon.

2♦ ATLANTA-NEW ORLEANS OVER


And just for good measure here is a second free play!

Sunday's other free play will be the surging Lions as the small road favorite against the sliding Vikings.

Detroit did lose the season's first meeting at home to Minny, but since their bye the Lions have won three of four straight up and they have covered all four of those games.

As for Minnesota, their 4-1 start - including a win over the mighty 49ers - is a thing of the distant past, as the Vikings play their last game before their bye-week having dropped three of their last four, while going 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games.

Christian Ponder continues to throw interceptions - 8 of them in his last five games - and he threw for only 63 yards passing in last week's loss at Seattle. Those numbers are not going to cut it against a Detroit attack that has come to life, scoring 26 points or more in three of their last four wins.

Detroit gave up a kick return TD and a punt return TD in their 20-13 home loss to Minnesota back on September 30th. As long as they bottle up Percy Harvin, I see good things for the Lions in this second meeting in Minnesota.

4♦ DETROIT

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Bob Balfe

Dallas Cowboys -2.5

Did you see the Eagles Offensive Line? They looked horrible in the game against the Saints and that New Orleans Defense is garbage. The Eagles also had two more lineman go down later in the game so this team pretty much is playing with no offensive line. There is no way the can win this game today. Dallas has a decent defense and good players on offense. This is a big divisional game and without protection you have no time to run your offense. This might turn into a circus. Take the Cowboys.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Charlie Sports

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Buccaneers
Play: San Diego Chargers +3

The (4-4) San Diego Chargers of the NFL AFC West division will take on the (4-4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the NFC South division in 2012 NFL action. The over is 6-0 the last 6 between the teams. San diego is 6-1 against the spread the last 7 meetings between the teams. The teams are going in opposite directions as San Diego is 1-3 ATS their last 4 while Tampa Bay has won 3 of the last 4, both straight up and ATS. San Diego gets the road cover +3.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

John Ryan

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Prediction: Buffalo Bills

The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-34 record for 69% winners since 2002. Play on road teams avenging a loss against opponent that are off a road loss. Fine tuning this system and simplifying it to just include teams off a road loss playing in November produces a 37-9 ATS record for 80% winners. Here is a second system that has produced a 26-6 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2006. Play on road teams after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games in games played in weeks 10 through 13. This system has gone 15-3 ATS for 83% ATS winners over the past three seasons. New England put up to 52 points in their first meeting against Buffalo September 30. The Patriots gained 247 rushing yards in that game and Buffalo will make the necessary adjustments to contain the running attack. In the three games where the Patriots gained less than 100 rushing yards they also lost ATS. I believe Buffalo can accomplish this and make Brady defeat them through the air. This game will be single digits throughout. Take Buffalo.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Michael Alexander

NY Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks    
Play: NY Jets

The Jets beat Miami and Indianapolis and nearly upset New England losing in OT. Seattle is a misleading 5-4. The Seahawks could be 1-6 in their last seven games if they didn’t get some lucky breaks and calls (remember Green Bay). The Seahawks beat New England by one and got lucky in a 16-12 win against Carolina. Keep in mind as well that the Seahawks lost to the Rams who are a worse team worse than the Jets. Russell Wilson has nine touchdowns and no interceptions at Century Link Field but laying all these points with a rookie QB under center is usually a very risky proposition.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Nick Parsons

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Pick: Denver Nuggets

In a series where Denver has taken the last six head to head matchups, going back to the start of the 2010 season, we will take Denver to continue their winning ways in the desert. While the offenses are somewhat even so far this season, the Denver D is setting itself apart from the Suns on paper, giving up only 96 points per game compared to the Suns 103.4 pts per game they have given up. The Suns have been worse on their home floor this season allowing opponents to shoot 49% from the floor and 35% from three point land. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS this season, and are on fire covering five straight games, while the Suns are showing signs early of being a lottery contender with a 1-6 ATS record thus far in the season. We will side with the stronger Denver squad to cover the one possession spread.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Wunderdog

Atlanta at Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: First Half Under 98.5

A long road trip for Atlanta, the start of a four game trip out West. This team is in the middle of the pack defensively to start, but they have been very strong on defense the last few years, leaning on that as a strength. They are rounding into form, going 2-0 UNDER the total the last two games, slowing the pace down. They topped Indiana allowing 86 points (allowing 9 points in one quarter) and lost to the defending champs as the offense scored 89 points in both games. They held Miami to 42 first half points the last game and are trying to redefine their offense after the Hawks dealt perennial All-Star Joe Johnson to Brooklyn during the offseason. When the Hawks play a good team they really slow the pace down and play tough defense as the UNDER is 9-4 in Hawks last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  They won't want to get into a running game with the first place L.A. Clippers, a team playing better defense this season allowing .439% shooting.  They are off a win at Portland allowing 90 points and just 39 in the first half. Look for more defense in the first half and a slower pace than oddsmakers expect. Play the Hawks/Clippers First Half UNDER the total.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

DAVID BANKS

Texans / Bears Over 38.5

In what is probably the best Sunday Night Football matchup of the year so far, the top seeds in the AFC, the Houston Texans (7-1, 6-2 ATS) pay a visit to the second seeds in the NFC, the Chicago Bears (7-1, 5-3 ATS) at Soldier Field in Chicago at 8:20 ET on NBC. These are also two of the best defenses in the NFL, with the Bears ranking second in scoring defense allowing 15.0 points per game and the Texans tied for third at 17.1 points, and those two units should set the tempo for this contest,

Chicago ranks sixth in total defense 318.1 yards per game, and the truth is that the Bears have actually been better than that as a lot of the yards that they have given up have come in garbage time late as they have played with a lot of large leads. Last week was a perfect example as the stats say that they allowed 339 total yards including 159 rushing yards on only 18 carries, but those numbers all got blown out of proportion on an 80-yard touchdown run by Chris Johnson in the fourth quarter with Chicago leading the game 51-12! Also, the Chicago defense has been the primary reason why the Bears are averaging 29.5 points per game, as they are on pace to set an NFL record for return touchdowns in a season with an incredible eight in eight games, with the record for a full season being 13. The strength of the Bears is their run defense, as they rank sixth allowing 88.2 rushing yards per game, and they would probably be first or second if you take away Johnson's meaningless 80-yard scamper as only 9.9 rushing yards per game separates sixth ranked Chicago from top ranked Tampa Bay. Thus look for the Bears to at the very least contain Arian Foster here, making it much harder for a Texans' team that relies so heavily on the run to score.

Houston ranks third in total defense at a mere 286.1 yards per game, and the Texans are solidly consistent across the board, ranking second in rushing defense and fourth in passing defense. Truth be told, they probably should not have much trouble containing a Chicago offense that has a huge disconnection between its total offense and its scoring. The Bears rank third in the NFL in scoring, but as mentioned, their 29.5 points per game have been a function almost entirely of the defense. That is because Chicago ranks only 25th in total offense at a quite pedestrian 324.4 yards per contest. Furthermore, the Texans do not turn the ball over much at all, with a grand total of six turnovers through eight games, and that severely lessens the chances of the Bears continuing their amazing string of return touchdowns.

This is only the second time this season that the Texans have playing on national television, and as fate would have it, their only loss this year came the first time they had a chance to showcase their skills vs. the Green Bay Packers, also on a Sunday night. Houston has regrouped nicely in its two games since that loss though, with the defense allowing a total of 22 points in two wins. The 'under' is 6-2 in the last eight Houston games following a straight up win, as well as 9-1 in the last 10 Chicago games after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in the previous game.

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