Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

DUNKEL INDEX

Houston at Chicago
The Texans are coming off a 21-9 win over Buffalo and look to build on their 9-1-1 ATS record in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Houston is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Texans favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1 1/2)
Game 215-216: Buffalo at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.396; New England 137.407
Dunkel Line: New England by 9; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 11; 51
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+11); Under

Game 217-218: NY Giants at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 135.580; Cincinnati 133.827
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 2; 52
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4 1/2); Over

Game 219-220: San Diego at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.439; Tampa Bay 130.491
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Under

Game 221-222: Denver at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.631; Carolina 131.287
Dunkel Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3 1/2); Over

Game 223-224: Tennessee at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.474; Miami 135.901
Dunkel Line: Miami by 10 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Miami by 6; 44
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6); Under

Game 225-226: Oakland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.261; Baltimore 137.763
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 12 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-7 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 138.127; New Orleans 132.938
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 50
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Under

Game 229-230: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 133.551; Minnesota 127.480
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1); Under

Game 231-232: NY Jets at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 128.110; Seattle 136.150
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 8; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6 1/2); Over

Game 233-234: Dallas at Philadelphia (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 131.544; Philadelphia 130.339
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+1); Over

Game 235-236: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 127.668; San Francisco 142.278
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 11; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-11); Under

Game 237-238: Houston at Chicago (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.382; Chicago 136.832
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Chicago by 1 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1 1/2); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 12

Game 239-240: Kansas City at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 119.245; Pittsburgh 140.076
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 21; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 11 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-11 1/2); Under

CFL

Edmonton at Toronto
The Eskimos look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 Division Semifinals games. Edmonton is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+3 1/2)

Game 291-292: Edmonton at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 113.460; Toronto 113.001
Dunkel Line: Even; 55
Vegas Line: Toronto by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+3 1/2); Over

Game 293-294: Saskatchewan at Calgary (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 112.711; Calgary 119.765
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 7; 48
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-5 1/2); Under

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DUNKEL INDEX

Miami at Memphis 
The Heat look to take advantage of a Memphis team that is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Sunday games. Miami is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2)

Game 501-502: Orlando at Brooklyn (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 110.226; Brooklyn 115.745
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+7 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Atlanta at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 122.683; LA Clippers 125.235
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 2 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+6 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Miami at Memphis (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.690; Memphis 122.832
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 6; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2); Over

Game 507-508: Cleveland at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 111.615; Oklahoma City 128.830
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 17; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-9 1/2); Under

Game 509-510: Sacramento at LA Lakers (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.241; LA Lakers 120.374
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7; 195
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+9); Over

NCAAB

Syracuse vs. San Diego State
The Aztecs look to take advantage of a Syracuse team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 neutral site games. San Diego State is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+2)

Game 511-512: Marshall at Villanova (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 62.066; Villanova 64.538
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 2 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Villanova by 4 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+4 1/2); Over

Game 513-514: Hofstra at Purdue (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hofstra 47.204; Purdue 70.340
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 23
Vegas Line: Purdue by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-16 1/2)

Game 515-516: TX-San Antonio at Old Dominion (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 47.591; Old Dominion 56.316
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 9
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TX-San Antonio (+9 1/2)

Game 517-518: UC-Riverside at Illinois-Chicago (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 41.364; Illinois-Chicago 53.873
Dunkel Line: Illinois-Chicago by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois-Chicago by 11
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (-11)

Game 519-520: Florida International at Boston College (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 44.189; Boston College 59.392
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 15
Vegas Line: Boston College by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-13 1/2)

Game 521-522: Florida Atlantic at North Carolina (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 49.494; North Carolina 70.126
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 20 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 22; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+22); Over

Game 523-524: UL-Monroe at Oklahoma (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 41.683; Oklahoma 66.315
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 23
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-23)

Game 525-526: Duquesne at Georgetown (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 56.670; Georgetown 70.002
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 13 1/2; 134
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 15; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duquesne (+15); Over

Game 527-528: WI-Milwaukee at South Carolina (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 53.225; South Carolina 60.283
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 7; 119
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 5; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-5); Under

Game 529-530: Loyola-Marymount at SMU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Marymount 57.540; SMU 57.340
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: SMU by 2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (+2)

Game 531-532: New Mexico State at Oregon State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 57.750; Oregon State 68.085
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 10 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 8 1/2; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-8 1/2); Under

Game 537-538: Tennessee-Martin at Cincinnati (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 40.438; Cincinnati 65.005
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 26 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee-Martin (+26 1/2)

Game 539-540: Eastern Michigan at Jacksonville State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 46.137; Jacksonville State 55.868
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Jacksonville State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville State (-8 1/2)

Game 541-542: Manhattan at Louisville (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 53.223; Louisville 76.803
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-18 1/2)

Game 543-544: Oakland at UL-Lafayette (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 56.075; UL-Lafayette 52.031
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4
Vegas Line: Oakland by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-2 1/2)

Game 545-546: Loyola-MD at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 56.250; Washington 71.560
Dunkel Line: Washington by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-7 1/2)

Game 547-548: Montana State at Seattle (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 44.416; Seattle 57.677
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle by 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-9)

Game 549-550: Syracuse vs. San Diego State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 70.115; San Diego State 69.977
Dunkel Line: Even; 133
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+2); Over

Game 555-556: Colgate at Marquette (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colgate 39.483; Marquette 73.021
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 33 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Marquette by 27; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (-27); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Ben BurnsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland vs. Baltimore
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At first glance, this total may look a little high. However. I feel it could actually be even higher.
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The Raiders have seen each of their last three games top the total. Most recently, they were involved in a 42-32 shootout vs. the Bucs. They're giving up an average of 28.6 points per game.
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Note that the Raiders throw the ball a whopping 41.4 times per game, second most in the AFC and fourth most in the league. Their 21.4 rushing attempts per game is the third lowest in the NFL.
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Baltimore averages 32.2 points per game at home, averaging 421.7 yards here. The vaunted Raven defense is giving up a high 389 yards per game here, however. Balltimore home games are averaging 52.2 points, three of four exceeding the total.
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All things considered, if the line stays below 47 (looks like it could dip below 46)  I'd say the 'over' is worth a look.

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Carlo CampanellaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints    
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New Orleans beat the Eagles on Monday Night Football, 28-13, but are still an underachieving 3-5 this season and host undefeated Atlanta (8-0), the team that they trail by 5 games in the NFC South division race. The Saints have played a weak schedule, with only 2 of their first 8 opponents owning winning records, Green Bay (6-3) and Denver (5-3). New Orleans lost both games against those winning teams while losing by a combined score of 62 to 41 points. While the Saints swept this division series 2-0 last year, expect the Falcons to get their revenge as we find them at 11-3 ATS as favorites seeking revenge behind Head Coach Mike Smith. With New Orleans allowing 28.6 points per game and 472 yards per game, lay the points with the Falcons knowing they're 7-0 ATS against teams with a losing record after Week #8 the last 3 seasons.

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Chris ElliottFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego vs. Tampa Bay
Pick:San Diego
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The Chargers are 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS and 2-2 on the road. They are coming off a solid 31-13 victory at home vs. the lowly Chiefs breaking a 3 game losing streak. The 3 losses included a 31-24 hard fought defeat at NO, a 35-24 loss at tough Denver where the team blew a 24 point half time lead and a slim 7-6 loss at Cleveland.
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The Denver loss began talk of Norv Turner losing his job, a tight loss at Cleveland kept the rumours swirling while the KC victory has kept things in check. QB Phillip Rivers has said, "you play for a lot of things, right now we are playing for our coach". I expect the team to be focused and motivated Sunday. Rivers was lights out against KC becoming only the 6th QB in history to complete 90% or more of his passes in a game. Of note, the Chargers are 8-2 when Rivers throws less than 2 INTs. Rivers is the ultimate competitor and rest assured he is well aware of that stat.
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The Bucs are 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS and 2-2 at home. Rookie RB Doug Martin was the talk of the NFL last week with a massive 251 yards rushing and 4 TDs in a 42-32 victory at Oakland. The young back now has an excellent 794 rushing yards on the season.The team has won 3 of 4 games including 2 straight including an impressive 36-17 victory at Minnesota.
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4th year QB Josh Freeman has really come into his own with 2,047 yards passing, 16 TDs and an excellent 95.1 QB rating after an off season last year with a 74.6 QB rating. The Bucs have the leagues best defense against the run allowing 77.3 YPG however they have the league's worst pass defense giving up 321.1 passing YPG. This plays right into the gunslinger Rivers hands who would love to throw 40 passes a game while the run game has been fairly non existent all season with Ryan Mathews leading the charge with 421 yards and 1 TD.
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The Chargers have owned the Bucs with a record of 8-1 all time in this matchup with the Chargers 5-0 at TBay! These two teams last met in 2008 with Rivers going off for 287 yards and 4 TDs in a 41-24 route.
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The Chargers are underdogs in this game while I suspect they will win straight up. Take the Chargers plus the points for a cushion and take this game to the bank.

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Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo vs. New England
Pick: Buffalo
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Sea legs et al, the Patriots return from London to host AFC East rival Bills with New England looking to retain its one game lead atop the perch in the division. Wanting to and doing so are often different paths traveled by teams who are up against it, like the Pats are today. For openers, teams returning to the states following a scrum across the ocean in England have been frightful.  In another PLAYBOOK exclusive, these teams are 6-4 SU and 3-6-1 ATS. Worse, they are 1-6-1 ATS in division games and 0-3 ATS as favorites. The Bills took it on the chin in a 52-28 home loss to the Patriots in Week Four this season, a game in which Buffalo blew a 21-7 lead in the 3Q. It marked the most points ever surrendered by Chan Gailey in his NFL head-coaching career. Given New England’s 0-6 ATS record as home favorites of more than 5 points in games against avenging division foes, and its 4-18 ATS mark in games when favored by 11 or more points, the points become the play here today. The rocking and rolling at Foxboro will likely be the unsteady footing of its players and not its fans.  We recommend a 1-unit play on Buffalo.

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Oakland vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
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Though the Ravens have done little recently to justify laying more than one score, I do like them at home this week against the poor travelling Raiders.  You may have read previously about Oakland's struggles in early East Coast start times, which comissioner Roger Goodell has vowed to decrease for West Coast teams.   It can't happe soon enough for the Silver and Black, who are a horrid 2-14 straight up in the Eastern Time Zone dating back to 2007.  This includes an outright 35-13 loss in Week 2 to the Miami Dolphins.  They have not won a game out East since the 2009 season.  Therefore, it should not be a surprise to find the Raiders 3-13 ATS their last 16 visits to AFC North stadiums.
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Baltimore enjoys a tremendous home field edge where they have won 14 in a row.  This will be their first game at M&T Bank Stadium in nearly a month.  They will be fired up to play in front of the home crowd.  I look for them to dominate the line of scrimmage in this matchup, particularly without running back Darren McFadden.  Last week, the Raiders were outgained 278-22 in rushing yardage by Tampa Bay, who was dominating early before allowing a brief comeback.  The Oakland defense is allowing over 28 PPG and has the second fewest sacks in the league.   Ravens QB Joe Flacco should have a big day.

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Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
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The Raiders might be able to keep up for a while, but I think it's only a matter of time before the Ravens put this game away for good.
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Oakland is in tough coming off a 42-32 home loss to the Bucs last week. The Raiders defense has been exposed time and time again this season, and now has to face a Ravens offense that is in line for a breakout performance after being held down in the last couple of games.
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Note that Oakland has already given up at least 31 points on four different occasions this season - that represents half of their games.
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Offensively, the Raiders will be relying on Carson Palmer's arm in this one after losing RB Darren McFadden for an indefinite period of time due to a leg injury. While we may see some quick strikes from the Oakland offense, there's a good chance we'll also see some quick three-and-outs, giving the Ravens excellent field position. With a short field, this Baltimore offense can be lethal.
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Baltimore had dropped the cash in five straight games prior to last week's 10-point win over the Browns. Prior to that, the Ravens had won back-to-back games ATS to start the season.
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Here I look for them to get a much-needed follow-up victory at home, knowing that this is a key one with the Steelers (one game back of the Ravens in the AFC North) hosting the awful Chiefs on Monday night. The Raiders are a banged-up squad right now, and will have a tough time keeping pace on Sunday afternoon.

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Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee vs. Miami
Pick: Tennessee
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The Dolphins haven’t exactly been beating up on quality foes.  Their four wins this season have come against the Raiders, Bengals, Rams and Jets.  Two of those four wins came by four points or less, not enough to cover this pointspread.  In the two games where Miami has been favored, they’ve won by three and lost by three, failing to cover the number each time.  The Dolphins have been outgained by nearly 550 yards over the last three weeks.  And, long term, simply betting the underdog in every Dolphins game has produced a remarkable 36-13 ATS streak, including a 6-1 ATS run entering Sunday’s game.
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If there’s one game all year that we can expect the Titans to show up for, it’s this one.  Tennessee was thoroughly embarrassed and humiliated on their home field last Sunday; a game that was over by the end of the first quarter.  Owner Bud Adams was not amused: “In my 50 years of owning an NFL franchise, I am at a loss to recall a regular-season home game that was such a disappointment for myself and fans of the Titans. We were grossly outcoached and outplayed from start to finish."  With the better option (Jake Locker) back behind center this week, look for an inspired performance from this ‘live’ road underdog.  Take the Titans.

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Matt Fargo
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N.Y. Giants vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
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We played the Bengals as home underdogs last week against the Broncos and despite outgaining Denver, Cincinnati lost. The Bengals were one of the four home underdogs that failed to cover last week and the public cleaned up because of it. There are six home underdogs this week and I do not expect a repeat of the debacle from last week. This is a huge game for the Bengals as there are eight teams within two games of each other in the AFC fighting for two Wild Card spots and a loss here could be devastating.
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The Giants had won four straight games prior to their loss last week at home against the Steelers. While it took a Pittsburgh touchdown with four minutes left to secure the win, New York was outplayed the entire game as it was outgained by 167 total yards, had nine fewer first downs and lost the time of possession by over 10 minutes. It was the third straight game the Giants have been outgained as their defense has been a big problem, now ranked 25th in the league overall.
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This is the third straight home game for Cincinnati and it comes with a very interesting dynamic. The Bengals have dropped the first two games of this three-game homestand and it is very rare for teams to lose all three games. Since 1985 there have been 179 teams that have played a three-game homestand and only 10 times have they dropped all three of those games. 17 times teams have lost the first two games and gone on to win with the only exception being the 2008 Lions that went 0-16 that year.
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Cincinnati is ranked 17th in total offense and 20th in total defense so they have been a middle of the pack team and a lot of that is due to a couple games where either the offense or the defense played very poor. Cincinnati has been very consistent for the most part and the most frustrating part during the current four-game losing streak is that they won the yardage battle in three of those games. On the season Cincinnati has a -1.9 ypg margin while the Giants have a -9.4 ypg margin.
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The Giants are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games after getting outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game while going 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Bengals fall into a solid contrarian situation as we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 or more ypg on offense against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg on defense. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983.

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Jimmy Boyd
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Detroit Lions -2.5
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Detroit and Minnesota are headed in different directions, and Detroit is the team on the upswing. The Lions have won three of their last four games since winning just one of their first four, and they are 4-0 against the spread during this stretch.
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The Vikings have lost three of their last four both straight up and against the spread since winning four of their first five.
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The Lions have won three of the last four meetings in the series. Overall, the Vikings have been a poor investment against NFC North foes at 3-8-1 against the spread in their last 12 games against them.
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The numbers suggest Detroit is the superior team on both sides of the football. The Lions rank second in the NFL in total offense with 410.9 yards per game while the Vikings rank 22nd with 334.0 yards per game.
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The Lions rank seventh in total defense with 320.5 yards allowed per game while the Vikings rank 11th with 338.4 yards allowed per contest.
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The fact the Lions enter off a 31-14 victory in Jacksonville as a six-point favorite is significant because they are on a 14-6-1 against the spread run following a game in which they covered.
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The Vikings are just 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine home games.
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I like the Lions regardless, but it works even more in our favor if Percy Harvin isn’t able to go. He is currently doubtful with an ankle injury. Harvin is Minnesota's leading receiver and one of the top playmakers in the league.
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The Vikings were fortunate to win the season's first meeting as they were outgained 341-227 in that contest. Look for the Lions to have their revenge. Lay the points.

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New Orleans Saints +2.5
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Look for the Saints to hand Atlanta its first loss of the season. New Orleans is 3-0 in the last 3, 6-1 in the last 7 and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in the series. The Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 in the Superdome. They are even 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus poor defensive teams like Atlanta that allow 350 yards or more per game and 6-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that average 350 yards or more per game. I don't believe Atlanta will be able to come up with enough stops against one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Take New Orleans.

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Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers    
Play: Denver Broncos
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Peyton Manning is having a career year. The 4-time MVP has a 69.5% CR, 2404 YP, 20 TDs, and just 6 INTs. He has synced with two receivers in Thomas and Decker (1339 YR and 11 TDs combined). The ground attack of Willis McGahee (620 YR and 4 TDs) has balanced off the offense quite nicely. The team has averaged 31.6 PPG over their L5 games and have outscored foes 100-37 the L10 quarters. WR, Decker has scored all 7 of his TDs in the L5 outings. This team has covered 3 straight, including their 2 road games at San Diego and Cincinnati. Carolina has one of the worst scoring teams in the NFL, averaging a mere 18.2 PPG (17.3 PPG at home). Cam Newton has more INTs (8) than TDs(6). The QB is the teams' top-rusher. Williams and Stewart have combined for only 482 YR on the season. The Panthers have hung in with quite a few teams but Denver is rolling right now. The Bronco's are 5-0 ATS their L5 games played in November and 7-2 ATS their L9 games played vs. teams with a losing record. The Panthers are 3-7 ATS their L10 games played in November and 2-6 ATS their L8 games played at home. Take Denver.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

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San Diego Chargers +3
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The Chargers were able to put an end to their three-game losing streak with a 31-13 win at home over division rival Kansas City. The Chargers are no longer the team to beat in the AFC West and many people have already written this team off. I’m not one of them. I still we have yet to see this team play their best football and November and December is typically the time of the year where they turn it on.
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If San Diego gets another performance out of Phillip Rivers like they did in their last game against the Chiefs, there’s no reason to think they can’t go on the road and beat Tampa Bay. Rivers went 18 of 20 for 22 yards and two touchdowns. He figures to have every opportunity to light up a very bad Tampa Bay secondary. While the Buccaneers are holding opponents to a league-low 77.3 ypg on the ground, they are dead last in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 321.1 ypg. This past week they allowed Oakland’s Carson Palmer to throw for 414 yards and four touchdowns.
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The thing that so many people overlook because of San Diego’s poor start to the season, is just how good this team is playing defensively. The Chargers are giving up just 321.8 total yards/game, which is the 9th best mark in the entire NFL. So much is being made about Tampa Bay’s running game, but the Chargers are only giving up 84.0 ypg on the ground and have only allowed more than 120 yards in one game all season.
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I think a lot of people are looking at how well the Buccaneers have played over their last four games and not taking into consideration that those three wins have come against the Chiefs, Vikings and Raiders. Prior to the season the Chargers were listed as a 3-point favorite in this game. The Chargers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games vs excellent offensive teams – averaging >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season under head coach Norv Turner. Tampa Bay has also been a good team to fade at home, as they are just 8-23 ATS over their last 31 games at Raymond James Stadium.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

Jack Jones
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Carolina Panthers +4.5
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There are many signs that point to Carolina being a much better team than its 2-6 record would indicate. First and foremost, it is outgaining opponents 344.9 to 343.0 on the season, which is a number more indicative of a .500 team rather than one that is 2-6.
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The Panthers have simply had some tough breaks all season. Five of their six losses have come by 6 points or less, including three by 4 points or fewer. Had they gotten a few more breaks to go their way, they could easily be a 5-3 team right now.
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Carolina has proven it isn't going to pack it in this season. It nearly beat the Bears 22-23 on the road in Week 8, but gave that game away in the fourth quarter. Then, it topped Washington on the road 21-13 last week in a dominant effort.
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The Panthers have been playing tremendous pass defense in recent weeks, which is the key to stopping Manning and the Broncos. They held Jay Cutler and the Bears to just 131 passing yards in Week 8. Last week, they limited Robert Griffin III and the Redskins to 186 passing yards. They have now given up 227 or less passing yards in four straight games.
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Denver is 1-10 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. Carolina is 49-28 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992. The Broncos are 4-14 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) in the second half of the season since 1992. Bet the Panthers Sunday.

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Chip ChirimbesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings    
Play: Minnesota Vikings
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I can't help but remember last season early in the year taking the Vikings in this spot against the Lions and having a 21-3 half-time lead and losing by three for a 'push' with their 3-point over time win. Detroit is coming off a big win against Jacksonville (what a surprise) and going into a hostile environment against a club that needs a win in the worst way. The Vikings surprised the Lions in Detroit in September and know what to expect from the division rival.

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Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans Saints +2.5
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The Saints are starting to get it going with three wins in their last four games. They are 2-0 SU and ATS in the Superdome during this stretch, and I expect them to keep rolling. New Orleans has had Atlanta's number. It won both of last season's meetings, clubbing the Falcons 45-16 in New Orleans. The Saints have won three straight and 10 of the last 12 against their NFC South rival. Plus, they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with winning records. They have won these contests by an average of 17.2 points. The Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games overall. And, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet New Orleans.

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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Pick: Buffalo Bills
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A pair of teams off bye weeks and the Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week. This is an AFC rivalry game so expect the Bulls to bring it and they are a big dog. They were one of only a few teams that beat the Patriots last season. New England made a trade for Aqui Talib during the bye, clearly admitting that their secondary is a major problem. They've been drafting and rotating guys in and out of the secondary the last three years and it keeps getting worse, giving up yards and big plays. The Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, so grab the big dog. Play the Bills.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

SPORTS WAGERS
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Atlanta -2½ -108 over NEW ORLEANS
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Monday’s 28-13 win by the Saints over the hapless Eagles appears to have clouded the oddsmakers mind, as this short price would indicate to us. Despite the rare win, New Orleans was outgained on the night. That’s been a severe problem for the host as they are relinquishing a league worst 471 yards per game. To put that into perspective, the Bills are next highest at 418 yards per game, more than 50 yards fewer per game! To take it a step further, the Saints defense ranks 32nd in yards allowed, 32nd against the run and 29th versus the pass. That’s quite a trifecta.
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MVP candidate Matt Ryan will have his arsenal of Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez at his disposal and New Orleans cannot do anything about that. Ryan has thrown 17 TD’s against just five picks. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in half his games and on a fast track here, Ryan should have his way. Falcons also haven’t forgotten losing both contests to this struggling foe last season. Look for them to make a big statement on this day against a team they likely want to beat more than any other on its schedule this season.
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Dallas -2½ -108 over PHILADELPHIA
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Never thought that we’d feel sorry for Michael Vick. Actually, we don’t but as most that follow this game would agree, it is painful to watch Vick line up under center behind one of the most porous offensive lines you’ll ever see. The controversial quarterback was sacked seven times in Monday’s loss to the Saints and if you can imagine, it has actually gone from bad to worse as RT Todd Herremans is out for the year, meaning the Eagles are now without four of their five starting offensive linemen. Vick is playing scared because he’s been hit hard and knocked down so many times this season. It’s no wonder LeSean McCoy has had this off year without anyone to block for him. Eagles are on the verge of a major implosion and these demanding fans will waste little time in booing these guys off the field.
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Dallas lacks guidance but talent remains on both sides of the ball. Dallas has dropped three of its last four to Baltimore, the Giants and Atlanta but were in a strong position to win them all and probably should’ve went 4-0 over that span. As self-destructive as the Cowboys are, even they will joyfully take advantage of the horrible situation their hosts are in.
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N.Y. Jets +6 -105 over SEATTLE
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Opposing teams have grown accustomed to Rex Ryan’s false bravado. That could actually work to his team’s advantage here, as the Jets can concentrate on playing some football in an attempt to claw their way back into the AFC Wild Card race. The Jets have played a very tough schedule with games already against Houston, New England and Pittsburgh, not to mention blowout wins over Buffalo and Indy. They did not look a bit out of place against Pats or Texans, losing by three in OT to the former and by only six to the latter. 
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While Seattle is known for its success at this venue, we’re not so sure that it isn’t more sizzle than steak. This host has had a lot go its way this year. They’ve also lost to the Rams and Lions. The Seahawks are not used to spotting points like this. They’ve been faves just four times in two years, twice to the Rams. With a popgun offense and a bit too much swagger for a mediocre club, they could be caught off guard.

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SPORTS WAGERS
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TAMPA BAY -3 -108 over San Diego
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Bucs playing with a bounce in their step and considering that the enigmatic Chargers are visiting, prefer to side with the hot home side giving a few points. Tampa Bay is averaging 36 points per game over previous four. They are back home after winning consecutive road games. Rookie RB Doug Martin has exploded onto the scene, rushing for nearly 400 yards over his past two games. While San Diego’s run defense has been one of their few bright spots (perhaps skewed by the strength of opposition), it still is something that the Bolts will have to deal with rather than just focusing on the passing game. Josh Freeman has been the beneficiary of this upgraded ground game and his confidence appears to be back. Not to mention that WR Vincent Jackson will like nothing more than to stick it to his old club.

Meanwhile, the Chargers’ four wins have come against feeble group that includes Chiefs twice, Raiders and Titans. Fresh in everyone’s minds was a decent performance a week ago Thursday against the inept Chiefs. Let us not forget the clunker a week prior in a 7-6 loss at Cleveland. Crossing the country to play a 1 p.m. game against an NFC opponent will be a challenge that San Diego is unlikely to be up for. No units risked.
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Buffalo +11 -106 over NEW ENGLAND
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Something is amiss with the Patriots playing at home. At Gillette, New England has managed just three covers in past nine attempts. This season, the Pats lost here to Arizona, held off the charging Broncos and slipped by the Jets in OT. They also return home from trip overseas, off a bye and may need some time to get back into routine.
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Bills gave the Texans a scare last week and outside of Week 1 against Jets and Week 5 in San Fran, they’ve been in every game. Buffalo was thumped 52-28 in earlier meeting after jumping out to big lead. It is rare to get smoked by the same divisional team twice in a season so look for a closer one here. No units risked.
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CINCINNATI +3½ -103 over N.Y. Giants
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Are the Giants running out of gas? A couple of close wins followed by a home loss to the Steelers may be confirming the toll that winning the Super Bowl has on a club. G-Men usually best when receiving points while asking them to win by a margin continues to be a bankroll killer.
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New York continues to battle injuries and now must travel and spot points to a desperate Cincinnati club that is home for third consecutive week and that were in a position to beat Broncos last week. They just might close the deal this time. Giants much too risky giving away points. No units risked.
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CAROLINA +3½ -101 over Denver
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This one is may not be as easy as it looks. Peyton Manning not only has the ship sailing in the right direction, the waters look incredibly calm from here on out. Only the road trip to Baltimore in week 15 looks tricky. Peyton's getting the credit but the entire team has played better and the defense in particular has come through. In other words, the Broncos’ stock is through the roof.
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With the masses on them last week, Denver was fortunate to win and cover in Cincy. Take the money and run because this one is unlikely to work out as well. The Broncos are travelling on consecutive weeks while being favored in both. The Panthers are feeling better after a road win in Washington and they return home after two away. The books have made this guest a small choice again after having to pay out last week and they know the masses will be spotting the points again. They don’t give away money that easy. The “Buyer Beware” sign is lit up here. No units risked.
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MIAMI -6 -101 over Tennessee
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Some teams get off the mat fighting after a knockdown punch but after being completely manhandled by the Bears last week, we’re not sure the DNA of this Titans club is capable of doing so. The Titans have no direction and less desire. They’ve allowed 30 points or more in seven of nine games. The season can’t end soon enough for them and with a bye on deck, expect even less focus here.
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Spotting points with Miami doesn’t thrill us either with their weak résumé of wins but they come to play every week and they play hard. Dolphins rank 5th in points allowed. Ryan Tannehill should have his way with a Titans defense that has allowed two passing TD’s or more in five straight. With a 4-4 record and Buffalo on deck after this one, the Fish could be 6-4 heading into the stretch. This enemy will not get in their way. No units risked.
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Oakland +8 -110 over BALTIMORE
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Raiders are back where they are best. Losing but taking enough points to cover. Oakland has covered five of past six when taking any points at all. Since their bye, the Raiders have covered both road games and that includes a near win in Atlanta. Yes, Oakland is still sloppy and undisciplined but the Ravens aren’t instilling fear into anyone these days and are without question the most overvalued 6-2 club in some time. 
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Baltimore rarely plays well in week prior to visiting Pittsburgh. They were fortunate to beat the Brownies last week after being outplayed in the final three quarters. Prior to that, they were manhandled by the Texans and despite winning, they were badly outplayed by the Cowboys. Prior to that pair they went into Kansas City and were fortunate again to beat the Chiefs, 9-6. The Ravens’ offense has stalled recently, exceeding 19 points only once in past four games and their luck could run out here. Possible upset. No units risked.
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MINNESOTA +2½ -108 over Detroit
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Lions gathering some momentum but winning in Jacksonville (everyone does) and over the visiting Seahawks (everyone does), are not exactly signature. There’s no hiding Minny QB Christian Ponder’s decline after a solid start and it won’t help that Percy Harvin could miss this one but Detroit is too sloppy and erratic to be spotting points in a divisional road game.
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With Lions stock rising and Vikes dropping it’s not the right time to step in. Vikings have lost consecutive games but they are 4-1 at home and only road win came in Detroit. Fishy pointspread raises red flags, as Lions were spotting four in Motown and are spotting 2½ here? We’re not biting. No units risked.
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St. Louis +11 -108 over SAN FRANCISCO
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Niners enjoy bullying their weak NFC West cohabitants but Rams may have had enough. With Rams improved pass rush and San Fran’s propensity for exposing Alex Smith, this double-digit spot could be a steep one. Big chalk players may be feeling a false sense of security here after both Packers and Texans covered double digits last week but both were fortunate to do so and laying this much weight in the NFL can be a dangerous proposition.
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Rams have had two weeks to prepare for this one and the low posted total of 38½ is not conducive to spotting this many points. Lastly, Niners could be thinking ahead to next Monday night’s visit from the Bears, making this spot an unfavorable one. No units risked.
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CHICAGO -1½ -109 over Houston
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The Texans have played in three road games this year. While the results have been acceptable, they were less than dominant. Those games included the Broncos back when the Broncs and Peyton Manning were acclimating and then the Packers, the team that provided their only loss. Houston’s 21-9 over the Bills last week was a flattering score to the Texans while the majority of their wins have been against some easy targets.
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The Bears only loss also came against Green Bay but they’re 4-0 at home while Houston is 3-0 on the road so something has to give. Bears can hardly let up as they have the Packers in their rear view mirror while Texans only need to deal with 2nd place Colts. If defense rules the day as it usually does, the home side is priced cheaply. No units risked.

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