Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 6

Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 6

DUNKEL INDEX

Ball State at Toledo
The Cardinals look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games following a bye week. Ball State is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+6 1/2)

Game 101-102: Ball State at Toledo (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 82.168; Toledo 86.434
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 4; 72
Vegas Line: Toledo by 6 1/2; 68
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+6 1/2); Over

NBA

Orlando at Chicago
The Bulls look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games against teams from the NBA Southeast Division. Chicago is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-9)

Game 701-702: Orlando at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 111.245; Chicago 126.637
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 15 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 9; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-9); Under

Game 703-704: Toronto at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 118.268; Oklahoma City 124.890
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 199
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+9); Over

Game 705-706: Detroit at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 111.266; Denver 123.513
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 12; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 10; 197
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10); Under

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Orlando Magic vs. Chicago Bulls
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Orlando is 2-0 and showing no ill effects of trading Howard as the Lakers are 1-3. Orlando has had two nice wins, but both were at home and both were against the West. This is Orlando's first road game of the season and first against the East as they head to Chicago. The Bulls are off to a 2-1 start without Rose as they wait for his return of their MVP Rose and look to make it two in a row against an east opponent. Look for the Bulls to get great play from their starters as they step up on defense and shut down Davis. Play Chicago

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ball State +6½ -102 over TOLEDO
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Toledo has moved into the top-25 for the first time since 2001 and that’s an angle we usually like to fade. The reason being is that there’s instant recognition once you get on that list and with it comes a premium. We saw a similar situation with Cincinnati three weeks ago when the Bearcats made the top 25 and ironically played these Rockets and lost outright.
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The Rockets feature a high-powered attack behind triplets Terrance Owens, Bernard Reedy and David Fluellen. Their signature win this season was that game against Cincinnati but in that contest they were outgained 478-355. The rest of their schedule has seen them play poor teams and bottom feeders so their high rankings in passing yards, rushing yards and total points scored is skewed. They’re a  decent MAC team but so is Ball State.
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The Cardinals are just 3-2 in the conference and 6-3 overall, ergo the generous points. Unlike Toledo though, they’ve played some of the best teams in the conference, not to mention out of conference games against South Florida and #12 Clemson. Ball State has also played MAC foes Kent State and Northern Illinois, who are a combined 11-0. We've played a lot of MAC teams this year and will gladly step in again with Pete Lembo's rising MAC power Ball State Cardinals here. This looks like one of the best spots of the year for the Cardinals. The offense leads the MAC at 475 yards and a whopping 29 first downs per game and the team is playing with confidence after three consecutive wins and a chance to knock Toledo from the National rankings. Upset alert is on.
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Toronto +8½ -105 over OKLAHOMA CITY
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The Thunder are off to a slow 1-2 start. After splitting their first two games, OKC lost at home to Atlanta on Sunday. Now there’s some chemistry issues that are beginning to surface in wake of the James Harden trade to the Rockets. On Sunday, Thabo Sefolosha and Russell Westbrook had to be separated from exchanging words as they walked to the bench. It was a show of anger that surprisingly was also seen from the same two as they walked off the court at halftime Friday night. In other moments Kevin Durant has barked at Serge Ibaka, and Kendrick Perkins and Ibaka have pointed fingers. There is tension and a little awkwardness in the dressing room that should not be overlooked.
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The Raptors are 1-2 overall but could easily be 3-0 after near misses against Indiana and Brooklyn. Instead of hanging their heads, the Raps came out on Sunday and put a beat-down on a very good Timberwolves club. Unlike the Thunder, Toronto is a cohesive unit that showed strong signs of improvement a year ago and it’s carried over to this season. At some point the value on the Raptors will dry up but as of now it has not and that provides us with another opportunity.

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Jim Feist

Toronto Raptors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder    
Play: Toronto Raptors

Toronto (1-2) is improved, losing to the Pacers by a basket and coming off a blowout win over Minnesota. The defense is allowing 94.3 ppg, 11th best in the NBA. The Raptors are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Western Conference. Oklahoma City (1-2) has the same record and has been overvalued by oddsmakers, riding a 1-5-1 ATS run back to the NBA Finals, and the Thunder is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. Play the Toronto Raptors.

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Dave CokinFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls
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Orlando does not have much talent, but one thing they are showing early on is plenty of grit. The Bulls have a big date with Oklahoma City on deck, making this one of those spots where just doing enough to win the game will be good enough. I'll tab the Thunder plus the big points to cover.

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Toronto Raptors @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5
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The Oklahoma City Thunder are out of the gate slow at 1-2, but have what should be a mismatch against the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors own just one win themselves, taking advantage of a Minnesota team starting the season without their top two players. While James Harden continues to make headlines for Houston, the Thunder has to be pleased with their new sixth man in Kevin Martin who has knocked down 12 of 17 from deep in the first three games. The Thunder have been sloppy with the ball, but there is simply too much talent here especially at home to be challenged by Toronto. I would also have to guess that the Thunder will be bringing their "A" game off a 1-2 start. Toronto is a dismal 13-28 ATS in their last 41 vs. the NBA Northwest, while the Thunder have swept their way through the Atlantic at 6-0 ATS in their last six. They are also 8-3 ATS in the last 11 vs. Toronto, including 5-1 ATS at home in the last six. Play on Oklahoma City.

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Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. Oklahoma City
Pick: TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Raptors are off to a 1-2 start, both SU and ATS, but they could just as easily be a perfect 3-0 against the number.
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Remember, they led most of the way before the Pacers snuck in for the win (and cover by half a point) in their season-opener. They missed the cover by a point-and-a-half in Brooklyn two nights later before finally crushing the T'Wolves on Sunday.
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This is obviously a big 'step-up' game on the road against an elite opponent, but based on their scrappy style at both ends of the floor, I fully expect the Raps to hang around for four quarters.
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The Thunder are going through some growing pains after dealing James Harden to Houston just prior to the start of the season. They own an identical 1-2 SU record to that of the Raptors, with their lone victory coming against a Blazers team that has been equally as inconsistent in the early going.
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We've seen Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook struggle (by their standards) through the first three games - perhaps feeling a little added pressure following Harden's departure.
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Of course, there's also the fact that the Thunder are no longer the hunters, but rather the hunted after winning the Western Conference crown last spring.
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The Raptors would love nothing more than to pick up a statement victory on this quick two-game road trip, and while they may not be able to get it in outright fashion on Tuesday, I do believe a moral victory will be in order as they hang with one of the league's best.

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Andre GomesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orlando / Chicago Over 187
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Chicago is coming from a home loss against New Orleans, where they competed hard by grabbing 15 offensive rebounds, while the Hornets grabbed just 9! The Bulls also had 11 steals, had fewer turnovers than the Hornets with a season low of 12 turnovers, they scored more points in the paint, second chance points and fast break points. However, they had a huge problem that they can't have if they want to win games: after shooting 63.8% FG against Cleveland, the Bulls shot just 32% FG in the game against New Orleans, while shooting just 26% FG in the 2nd half! Rip Hamilton shot 2-10 FG, Kirk Hinrich 1-8 FG, Luol Deng 6-15 FG, Carlos Boozer 1-8 FG and Joakim Noah 4-12 FG! That's a combined of 14-53 (26%) FG!
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Tonight, I expect a bounce back from the Bulls offense, as Orlando offers them a much more favorable matchup. The Bulls will have a huge edge down low, as Orlando has been playing a lot of small ball. With their good ball movement and size down low, I expect Chicago to score a lot of easy points today. There's also the fact that Chicago is running more this season than they were last season, as coach Thibodeau realized that the team without Derrick Rose needs to create more easy shots to score and with this, the pace in the first three games of the Bulls this season were always above 90, while they had just two runs of +3 games with a pace higher than 90 last season! Thanks to this quicker pace, Chicago is also score a lot of fast break points, having scored 14, 15 and 21 points in their first three games of the season.
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Orlando is 2-0 right now and after I watched them playing great basketball against Denver on their season debut, I couldn't resist taking them against Phoenix in the following game and in fact, they dropped 40 points on the Suns in the third quarter, despite playing without Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson, something that for a roster with little talent should be dramatic. They indeed struggled during the first half, where their defense had no answer for Luis Scola, who dominated the paint on offense, something that should also happen today with Carlos Boozer. However, the second half was a completely different story. Big Baby was much more efficient from both ends of the floor, E'Twaun Moore and Arron Afflalo were great from the three-point range. Orlando keeps playing on a fast tempo, with a small ball, great ball movement and a very good ball sharing. They had a good matchup against Phoenix, but the truth is that they are indeed showing an excellent offensive dynamic on this early season.
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This should be a fast paced game, where Orlando will obviously have more problems on offense than they had against the Suns. However, they are playing with great confidence, so I believe they should at least get some offensive production, even though they will be facing one of the best defenses on the league tonight. Chicago is also trying to set up a decent pace to their games and with Orlando sharing the same philosophy, I expect this game to become a fast paced game, with both teams having some decent games on offense. The current line of just 187 points would be a sharp line last season, with Chicago playing without Derrick Rose and Orlando still playing on half court with Dwight Howard on the frontcourt, but this season, on different circumstances, I expect this game to be nothing similar to the previous seasons' games between these two teams. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

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Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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DENVER -10.5 over Detroit: Gotta love the Nuggets in this one. They are 0-3 on the year, but all three games were on the road and they will be at home for this one, where they always play good. The Nuggets also play good ball vs the Central division going 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs them, plus they are 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games vs the Eastern Conference. Detroit is also 0-3 on the year and they are off a game vs an 0-3 Lakers team and they were hammered in that game, losing by 29 points. The Pistons are a young team and will struggle on the road this year, especially vs teams that are much better than them and the Nuggets are just that. Look for Denver to take their frustrations out on Detroit tonight and win this one by at least 17 points.
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Orlando/ Chicago Under 187.5: Both teams are missing or have key starters hobbling and that means that both teams will look for more of a defensive stand to win this game. The Bulls are allowing just 87.3 ppg and should slow down this Orlando team that will be missing Turkolu and possibly Jameer Nelson for this one. Orlando has averaged 108.5 ppg so far, but their first two game were vs bad defensive uptempo teams. The Bulls are not like that and they do slow the tempo at home. Chicago has averaged 96.7 ppg, but just 87.5 ppg in their two home games and the Magic have been playing great defense this year, allowing just 91.5 ppg on 40.6% shooting this year. This game will be aslow down game with both defenses stepping up big to keep this game under the total.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver Nuggets -10.5
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The Nuggets are 0-3 but have yet to step foot on their home floor this season. At home for the first time and hungry to find the win column, expect Denver to take care of business tonight.
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Teams headed up my George Karl are on an impressive 44-23 ATS run in home games after playing 3 consecutive games on the road.
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While this may seem like a lot of points to lay consider that the Nuggets are 77-54 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points under Karl's watch. Also consider that teams headed up by Lawrence Frank are on an 11-27 ATS slide as underdogs of 10 or more points. These teams have lost by an average of 15.2 points in this situation.
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The Pistons were blown out by 29 points by the Lakers in their last game, and I have them suffering another double-digit loss tonight. Lay the points.

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Orlando Magic +9.5
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The Orlando Magic took a ton of criticism in the offseason for trading Dwight Howard and not getting back a whole lot in return. This team is out to prove its critics wrong in the early going, and they're doing a real good job of it.
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Orlando has opened 2-0 in convincing fashion. It beat Denver 102-89 in its opener, followed by a 115-94 victory over Phoenix. Everyone is contributing as five players are scoring 12.0 points or more, led by 25.5 from Glen Davis and 22.5 from J.J. Redick.
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Chicago is off to a 2-1 start but it has played a very soft schedule in the early going. It had beaten the Kings and Cavaliers before falling at home to the Hornets 82-89 last time out. This team is overvalued and should not be this heavily favored without Derrick Rose.
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The road team has won five straight meetings in this series. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Bulls are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. The Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Orlando is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 vs. NBA Central division opponents. Bet the Magic Tuesday.

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Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pistons/Nuggets OVER 196.5
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Play Over on any team (Detroit in this case) in a game involving 2 teams that have been outscored by an average 7.0 points or more per game, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, are 37-12 since 1996. The average total in these games has been 193.5 and we've seen an average of 200.9 total points scored in this scenario. This system is a near-perfect 5-1 OVER the last 3 seasons.

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Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto Raptors +8.5
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The Thunder are being overvalued here. They are 1-2 and still trying to adjust to life without James Harden. The Raptors are 1-2 as well but have been playing solid basketball. They haven't lost a game by more than 7 points. Toronto is on a 22-10 ATS run when it enters a game after losing 2 of its last 3 games. It has only lost by an average of 1.7 points in these spots. Take the points as Toronto keeps this one within the number.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 6

HARRY BONDI

TOLEDO (-7) over Ball State

The 25th-ranked Rockets are the Mac's best team and have won eight straight games since a 24-17 overtime loss at Arizona to open the season. Toledo running back David Fluellen has rushed for at least 100 yards in the last 5 games and went off for 228 yards against Buffalo in the Rockets last game. He and Quarterback Terrance Owens should find the going easy against the Ball State defense which is ranked 110th in the nation. History is also on our side as the favorite in this series has covered 4 of the last 5. Rockets soar!

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David Banks

Ball State / Toledo Over 68.5

Believe it or not, the Toledo Rockets (8-1, 6-3 ATS) out of the MAC are ranked 25th on the BCS Standings, and now the nation can watch them in action as they host the Ball State Cardinals (6-3, 7-2 ATS) from the Glass Bowl in Toledo, OH Tuesday at 8:00 ET on ESPN2. The Rockets have won eight straight games since opening the season with a commendable 24-17 overtime loss on the road at Arizona, a streak that included a non-conference upset of Cincinnati here at home two weeks ago as a 5-point underdog. Ball State has won three straight games with the last two coming on the road, albeit vs. modest competition in Army and Central Michigan.

No, Toledo is not a legitimate BCS contender, and the Rockets actually need this victory to tie Northern Illinois at 6-0 in conference play atop the MAC West Division. In fact, Toledo in one if three MAC teams currently undefeated in the conference with Kent State leading the East at 5-0, so it is curious why Toledo would be the team crashing the bottom of the BCS Standings right now. Still, the Rockets will be anxious to prove that their standing is merited here and they can ill afford to slip up with a huge battle vs. aforementioned Northern Illinois up next in what should be a play-in to the MAC Championship Game. Toledo's latest victory was an uneven non-covering 25-20 win at Buffalo on October 27th, but some of that had to do with the sloppy conditions. A positive that can be taken out of that performance is that the Rockets played much better after halftime, gaining 297 of their 412 total yards in the final two quarters to overcome a 14-7 deficit at the break. Toledo ranks 32nd in the country in total offense and 31st in rushing offense at 270.8 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush, and the Rockets can take full advantage of a 109th ranked Ball State defense that is 102nd against the run while allowing an ugly 5.2 yards per carry.

Playing three straight road games is never easy and the fact that the Cardinals are stepping up in class after beating two relative cupcakes does not help matters either. Then again, they are bowl eligible for the second straight season at 6-3 and they would like to tack on another win or two to prevent a repeat of last year when they did not receive a bowl invite despite being eligible. The offense has not been a concern as Ball State ranks 22nd in the country in total offense and 41st in scoring offense at 33.7 points per game. The key here will be if the beleaguered defense can make some stops. Yes that side of the ball has looked better in recent weeks, especially while allowing opponents to convert on just 10-of-46 third downs in the last four games. Still, the competition was not much the last two weeks and if the excellent Toledo rushing offense is as successful vs. the porous Ball State run defense as expected, then Toledo should not be facing too many third and long situations.

The favorites have gone 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings, and the close call vs. Buffalo puts Toledo in a favorable position that has seen it go 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a ATS loss

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Scott Delaney

Home opener for the Nuggets (-10') tonight who look to break into the winning column after an 0-3 start by hosting another 0-3 team, the Pistons, who just got clobbered over the weekend by the Lakers, losing 108-79 in LA.

The Pistons have allowed 101.7 points on average in the season's first three games. When you're facing the team that led the league in scoring last year in its home debut, that's not a good thing.

A big number for sure, but when you consider Detroit is around a 20 percent play as a double-digit dog on the road the past couple of seasons, it's not that big of a number after all. And the Nuggets are going for their fourth straight home win in the series and No. 5 in a row overall.

1♦ DENVER

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Jeff Benton

Monday freebie was the New York Knicks, now 28-18 with my free plays.

Tuesday's freebie is the underdog Toronto Raptors as they play at Oklahoma City.

The Thunder are just 1-2 to start the new season, and something tells me that the chemistry they enjoyed last year knowing James Harden was coming off the bench is going to take a while to readjust to now that Harden is wearing a Houston uniform.

Toronto is fresh off their first win of the season, as they held Minnesota to just 86-points in a win at home over the weekend. Look for the Raptors to be close tonight, as they have made good with the points in two of the last three series meetings, and three of the last five overall against the spread.

OKC does have a look ahead game at Chicago on TNT this Thursday night to distract them, so with just enough wiggle-room for Toronto to play with, take the points at the Thunder continue to break slow from the gate as they get used to life without Harden in the first month of the long campaign.

Raptors plus the points the call.

2♦ TORONTO

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday November, 6

Matt Rivers

Let's get down to it and start the new week with this easy winner from Toledo.

44-34 comp play run coming into Tuesday.

Tonight's comp play winner is the Over in Ball State-Toledo,

If it is offense you are looking for, you will not be disappointed in tonight's MAC meeting at the Glass Bowl.

Ball State has allowed more than 30 points in five of their nine games this season, while scoring at least 30 points or better in seven of nine games this year. If they come close to those averages tonight, you can expect a game in the 70's combined.

As for Toledo, the Rockets have been held in the 20's scoring-wise in their last pair of games, but with 34 points or more scored in five of their previous six, I would say there is a strong chance Toledo rings up a score in the high 30's once again tonight.

Each of the last three series meetings have played Over the total, with the schools combining for 73 points in last year's showdown.

Offense is the special of the night tonight.

Points to add up, and the Over to come through.

3♦ BALL STATE-TOLEDO OVER

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