Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 2

Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 2

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAF

Washington at California
The Huskies look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Washington is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by 5.  Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4 1/2)

Game 309-310: Washington at California (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 95.158; California 90.323
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5; 58
Vegas Line: California by 4 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4 1/2); Over

CFL

Calgary at Edmonton
The Stampeders look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Calgary is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 4. Dunkel Pick Calgary (-2)

Game 493-494: Calgary at Edmonton (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 120.228; Edmonton 116.460
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 4; 46
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NBA

Utah at New Orleans
The Hornets look to take advantage of a Utah team that is coming off a 113-94 win over Dallas and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. New Orleans is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hornets favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3 1/2)

Game 701-702: Indiana at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 116.113; Charlotte 112.029
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 185
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+7); Over

Game 703-704: Denver at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 123.277; Orlando 115.245
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 8; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6; 198
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6); Under

Game 705-706: Houston at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 119.927; Atlanta 124.001
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+6); Over

Game 707-708: Milwaukee at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.590; Boston 130.097
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 13 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 7 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-7 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Chicago at Cleveland (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.018; Cleveland 115.027
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 178
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Under

Game 711-712: Utah at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 118.645; New Orleans 121.602
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 3; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 3 1/2; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3 1/2); Over

Game 713-714: Sacramento at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.537; Minnesota 112.669
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 3;
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3; 192
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+3); Over

Game 715-716: Portland at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 113.546; Oklahoma City 130.178
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 16 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-9); Under

Game 717-718: Miami at New York (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.889; New York 124.037
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3; Over
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 6; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+6); 201

Game 719-720: Detroit at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 114.563; Phoenix 121.423
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4); Under

Game 721-722: Memphis at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 118.832; Golden State 118.010
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 1; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 1; 191
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+1); Over

Game 723-724: LA Clippers at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 120.033; LA Lakers 123.608
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

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Portland vs. Oklahoma City
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The Trail Blazers opened the season with an impressive 116-106 home victory over the Lakers. The Blazers had a balanced attack Wednesday with their 5 starters scoring 13, 19, 22, 23, and 26 points respectively.
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2006 second overall pick LaMarcus Aldridge is the veteran leader of this team at age 27 as the starters average 24 years old. New head coach Terry Stotts has handed the offense over to 2012 6th overall pick PG Damian Lillard and he was excellent in his first game with 22 points and 11 assists. He did turn the ball over 6 times although a 2-1 assist to turnover ratio is decent for a rookie PG that will be flying up and down the court this season. The team is looking to exploit their youthful athleticism with an up tempo offense and this was evident in a 222 point Total in game 1 vs. the Lakers. The team is completely re-vamped with 8 new players on the squad.
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The Thunder are big home favorites and this is setting up for a home let down game after opening their season Thursday night at San Antonio in a Western Conference Finals re-match. The team has lost 1/3 of their 3 headed monster with James Harden being traded to Houston although Durant and Westbrook should have no trouble leading this team deep into the playoffs.
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I expect the Thunder and Spurs to battle tooth and nail Thursday night in a tightly contested affair. The Blazers will come out running in OKC Friday and the Thunder may have trouble keeping up early as their game legs arent quite where they should be in game 2 of the season.

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Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Trailblazers vs. Thunder
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This game fits a nice totals system that has cashed 80% of the time and plays to the over for home favorites of 5 or more like OKC that have a total of 190 or more and scored 90 or less as a road dog of 4 or less, vs an opponent that scored 100 or more at home. On top of the system we note that The Thunder have played over the last 6 times at home with no rest off a road game. They have also flown over in 10 of the last 15 in November games. The Blazers have played over the total 3 of the last 4 times as a road dog in this range. Look for this to go over the total tonight.

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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Los Angeles Lakers    
Play: Los Angeles Clippers
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The Lakers (0-2) are off to a shaky start with injuries and new pieces to work in. Newcomer Dwight Howard still has free throw issues, Steve Nash is looking old and Kobe Bryant is dealing with a foot ailment. The young Clippers are playing well, with a win over Memphis, and get up for this City of Angels rivalry. The Clippers are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the Lakers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Play the LA Clippers!

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Utah Jazz at New Orleans Hornets
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If you played the Hornets regularly as a home dog last season, I hope you're enjoying that new luxury car you must be driving around town these days. New Orleans was tremendous in this role last year, and I expect more of the same as the new campaign gets underway. Even with Eric Gordon predictably injured again, this is an under the radar team that could well be the most improved in the league. Anthony Davis is as good as advertised and I'm high on Austin Rivers. The Jazz always work hard for Ty Corbin, but they can be had away from Salt Lake City. I expect New Orleans to win this game, but the best bet is to grab the available points with the undrvalued Hornets.

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Jeff Scott SportsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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California/ Washington State Under 52: (Added) The Washington Huskies may be the most conservative team in the Pac-12 and their offensive number show it. They average just 126 ypg on the ground and and just 196 ypg through the air and just don't take many shots downfield. Washington averages just 4.7 yards per play which is 116th in the country, while the California defense has been pretty solid in that category, allowing just 5.2 yards per play (47th), so don't expect a lot off big plays from this Washington offense. On the other side we have a Washington defense that has played pretty well this year. They have allowed 52 points in each of their last 2 road games, but Oregon's and Arizona's offenses are far better than the one they will face tonight. The Washington defense has allowed 28 ppg , but really that is skewed by the two vs Arizona and Oregon and they will be taking on a mediocre Cal offense that has averaged 397 ypg and 25.8. Both teams rely on the run a bit and both defenses have been above average this year and that should leave us seeing around 45 points at most.

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Washington vs. California
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Washington comes into this Pac-12 match up at 4-4, but just 2-3 in conference play as they head to Cal. Cal is doing even worse at 3-6 and 2-4 in conference play. Washington started rather well winning their first game and three of four including beating then number 8 Stanford before losing three in a row. That three game losing streak was a killer especially with two games on the road. The road has been unkind to the Golden Bears as they are 0-3 on the road and outscored in those games by a combined 145-41. Cal has been really up and down this year: they lost their first game. bounced back to win their second, lost three in a row all by 10 or more points won back to back games and most recently lost back to back games score just 30 points in those games while allowing 70. Look for Cal to even up their home record at 3-3 conference win over Washington. Play Cal

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Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic
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Denver led the NBA in points per game last season at 104.1. The Nuggets have way too much scoring for Orlando, which no longer has Dwight Howard to clean up their defensive mess and cover up its many weaknesses. Orlando is putting up a brave front acting excited about a new post-Howard era under first-year head coach Jacque Vaughn. Truth be told, though, the Magic are going to be terrible. While Howard's departure is a monster blow, the Magic also lost the much underrated Ryan Anderson. That really hurts their perimeter shooting and rebounding. The Magic were 5-12 without Howard last season. They are going to be among the worst teams in the league this year with a weak backcourt, no shot blockers and learning a new offense. The Magic lack a focal point on offense now with Howard gone. Vaughn will have the Magic play at a faster tempo, which fits right into the Nuggets' hands. Denver has one of the quickest point guards in basketball with Ty Lawson. George Karl has a much deeper bench than Vaughn even if Danilo Gallinari has to miss a second straight game due to a sprained ankle. Gallinari had a good workout on Thursday, but remains a game-time decision. The Nuggets can go big or small. Karl has a lot of versatility with his lineup because of his team's outstanding depth. The Nuggets have improved their defense, too, with the addition of Andre Iguodala. The Nuggets laid an egg in their opener, a bad road loss to the 76ers. Denver, though, is 9-1 ATS following a straight-up loss. There's a class difference between the Nuggets and Magic and Denver is not going to lack motivation after its poor opener. The Nuggets have covered 69 percent of their last 55 road games and are 6-0-1 ATS the past seven times playing Orlando, going 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings at Orlando. My strongest Friday NBA play is available for purchase as is my College Football Underdog Game of the Year.

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Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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L.A. Clippers vs. L.A. Lakers
Pick: L.A. LakersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A bit of an overreaction from the betting marketplace here - certainly not an unexpected one given the Lakers much talked about 0-2 start to the season.
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While the Lakers were suffering their second consecutive loss on Wednesday night, the Clippers were rallying back from a fourth quarter deficit to ultimately defeat the Grizzlies.
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Now here we are two days later, and the Clippers find themselves favored against their 'big brother'.
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Of course, the expected absence of Steve Nash has something to do with this line as well. Given how little of a factor he was in the Lakers first two games, I'm not sure it's as big of an issue as it's being made out to be. This is still a team that boasts a starting five that includes Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Dwight Howard.
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I can't help but think Kobe and company took those two season-opening losses personally. This is a team that's at its best when it plays with a chip on its shoulder as far as I'm concerned - that certainly holds true for Kobe Bryant.
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The Clippers are a terrific team, but if we learned anything last season, it's that they've not quite reached 'elite' status in the West just yet.
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In Wednesday's win over the Grizzlies, they were buoyed by a 29-point effort from offseason acquisition Jamal Crawford. He scored 29 points off the bench in the victory. No other Clipper contributed more than 13 points. It's also worth noting that the Grizz were extremely rusty from beyond the arc, connecting on only 2-of-14 three-point attempts. In spite of that, they still held a four-point lead entering the fourth quarter.
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It's going to take some time for the Lakers to truly come together as a team, but I do think we'll see flashes of brilliance along the way, and tonight I look for them to find a way to gut out a win and silence their critics in the process.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 2

Andre Gomes

Denver Nuggets -6

Before Denver's game against Philadelphia, I wrote an article about the game, where I exposed some of the problems that Denver would have in that matchup:

"We know very well Denver's style on court: push the pace, score in transition and attack the rim non-stop. This has always been George Karl's formula in Denver and this season won't be an exception to that. The problem is that Philadelphia's defense from last season would always be a tough opponent for them, as I remember that Philadelphia was #1 in points in the paint allowed with 36.4 points and also #1 in fast break points allowed per game with just 10.2 points. Jrue Holliday is the best defensive PG in the league and so, Ty Lawson will struggle tonight."

Denver had a great defensive game against Philadelphia by leaving the home team with just 84 points scored, however they were terrible on offense by getting completely outplayed against the great 76ers' defense. The Nuggets need to create easy chance points near the basket and Philadelphia just clogged the paint! In the first half, Denver attempted 25 shots from inside the paint, but they just made 7 of them: 7-25 FG!!! In the second half, the Nuggets shot 9-20 FG inside the paint, for a combined of 16-45 FG in the paint - a ridiculous 35.5% FG! To make things worse, the referees of that game allowed it to be extremely physical and Denver had just 11 free throw attempts the whole game, even though they are generally one of the teams with more free throw attempts per game.

In my opinion, I believe Jrue Holliday is the best defensive PG in the league and he showed it against Ty Lawson, who struggled badly during the game and even ended the first quarter scoreless. Denver played without their best outside shooter in Danilo Gallinari and with Philadelphia putting so much focus on the inside, the Nuggets had some space on the outside, but they just weren't effective by shooting 4-18 3pts.

Basically, Philadelphia proved to be a tough matchup for Denver, but this loss doesn't chance the fact that Denver is indeed a good team. Fortunately for them, they will face Orlando tonight, one of the best possible matchups for Denver and therefore, I expect a huge bounce back game for the Nuggets tonight.

Philadelphia is a great defensive perimeter team led by Jrue Holliday, who could limit Ty Lawson and Andre Iguodala, while the fact that they have defensive system that prevents easy shots down low stopped Kenneth Faried from having a good game: 3-9 FG in 17 minutes. But what about Orlando?

Well, they have Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu on the perimeter, two guys who are far from being athletic enough, in order to stop the Denver's guards. Can you imagine Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu running back to defense in pursuit of Ty Lawson and Andre Iguodala? Well, good luck with that!

To make things worse, Orlando's frontcourt has Glen Davis and the unproved sophomore Nikola Vucevic. Both Gustavo Ayon and Al Harrington are out for tonight and so, in some moments of tonight's game, Glen Davis will be the team's starting center. So, how will Orlando prevent Denver from getting easy points in the paint? Well, they won't!

Orlando will be inevitably one of this season's lowly teams and tonight's matchup completely exposes all their weaknesses: lack of athleticism on the wings and lack of defensive paint protection, now that Dwight Howard is gone. Denver should make a bounce back tonight on a great matchup for them and so, I'll be taking the Nuggets in here.

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Detroit +166 over PHOENIX
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Detroit is coming off a season-opening tough loss against a very talented and game Rockets team. To the general public, the Pistons may seem irrelevant again this year but we’re suggesting that’s not accurate at all. Center Greg Munroe, in his third year, is among the best unheralded players in the NBA. His surrounding starters of Brandon Knight, Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince and Jonas Jerebk could all crack the lineup of 95% of the teams in this league. Jason Maxiell is a certain candidate for Sixth Man of the Year Award.
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The Suns are rebuilding…again.  The up-tempo offensive style and nonchalant approach to defense they had with Mike D’Antoni is still present with Alvin Gentry calling the shots. Phoenix rallied from 17-down to beat the Warriors in its season opener with Golden State’s lack of a bench doing the visitor in. In the run and gun style of the Suns, a system that has never succeeded in the NBA, a lot of things have to go right for you to win simply because there is no attention to defense. It went right in the second half in game one but relying on that to continue is a big-time stretch. Pistons outright.
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L.A. LAKERS +106 over L.A. Clippers
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Wow, talk about an overreaction! The Lakers dropped their first two games and now they’re a pooch to the Clippers? These two share the same house but the Lakers have beaten the Clip Joint nine straight times as the host and haven’t started the season 0-3 in 34 years. Steve Nash is listed as doubtful but that’s not going to deter us, as Steve Blake is more familiar with this offense right now. Testiness aside, the Lakes have scored some points. Bryant and Howard are both averaging 26 a game and Pau Gasol is at 19.5 PPG.
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The Clippers are coming off a nice win over a tough Grizzlies team but there is just a little too much hype on them right now. After one game, Jamal Crawford is already talking some trash, claiming the Clippers bench is, “the best in the game”. The Clippers were down by four heading to the fourth quarter against Memphis but the Grizz went cold with a 28% shooting quarter. Don’t expect the Lakers to follow suit.

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Sacramento at Minnesota
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The Minnesota Timberwolves are certainly heading in the right direction. The problem they have now is that they have cornerstones in place with Kevin Love, and Ricky Rubio, but both are out with injuries. The pieces they have assembled around them in Brandon Roy and Andrei Kirilenko both did not play in the NBA a year ago. Needless to say that there is going to be some adjustment time filling roles, and finding shots early in the season until their best players are back on the court. We saw what happened a year ago when the T-Wolves looked like a playoffs team until Rubio went down, and they promptly went 5-20 in their last 25 games. Tyreke Evans and Marcus Cousins have a year under their belts and should elevate this Kings team - certainly enough to get a win over an under-manned Minnesota team. Play Sacramento on the moneyline.

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Joe Gavazzi

Denver Nuggets -6

The Nuggs played what may be their worst offensive game of the year losing 84-75 at Philly opening night. They shot just 37% and knocked down just 4/18 3s. Thus there will be no compassion for rebuilding Orlando. Gone are Howard, Anderson, and Richardson. On the bench is virgin HC Jacque Vaughan. The roots run deep through Kansas and San Antonio. In his maiden voyage, it's a mismatch against wily mentor, George Karl.

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