Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

DUNKEL INDEX

Kansas City at San Diego
The Chargers look to bounce back from their 7-6 loss to Cleveland last week and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. San Diego is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7 1/2)

Game 301-302: Kansas City at San Diego (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 120.947; San Diego 134.078
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13; 39
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7 1/2); Under

NCAAF

Virginia Tech at Miami (FL)
The Hokies look to take advantage of a Miami (FL) team that is coming off a 33-20 loss to Florida State and is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Virginia Tech is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hokies favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-1 1/2)

Game 303-304: Eastern Michigan at Ohio (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 69.136; Ohio 84.122
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 15; 62
Vegas Line: Ohio by 17; 57
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+17); Over

Game 305-306: Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 92.435; Miami (FL) 88.328
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 4; 51
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 1 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-1 1/2); Under

Game 307-308: Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 75.661; Western Kentucky 90.377
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 14 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 9; 54
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-9); Under

CFL

Hamilton at Toronto
The Argonauts look to take advantage of a Hamilton team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Toronto is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Argonauts favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+7)

Game 491-492: Hamilton at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 105.648; Toronto 112.046
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 6 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 7; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+7); Over

NBA

Oklahoma City at San Antonio
The Thunder look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in the last 4 meetings between the two teams. Oklahoma City is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+2 1/2)

Game 503-504: Oklahoma City at San Antonio (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 130.226; San Antonio 129.465
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 206
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 201
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+2 1/2); Over

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

Rob Vinciletti

Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky    
Play: Middle Tennessee State

The Blue Raiders are getting 9 points in this one. In their road games this season they have been solid winning 3 of 4 including a 24 point Straight up win at Georgia Tech scoring 49 in that game. They have averaged 33 points per game on the road and have played a tougher schedule. They have home loss revenge in this one and the last 2 games in the series have been decided by 4 points. Western Kentucky has played just 2 home games. They defeated a still winless Southern Mississippi teams and lost to LA. Monroe 43-42. The Hilltoppers have failed to cover 5 of the last 6 in the first of back to back home games. Look for Middle Tennessee St to stay in this one the whole way. Take the Points.

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Jim Feist

Thunder vs. Spurs
Play: Over

San Antonio had to play last night at New Orleans, so look for the young Thunder to run right at them. Oklahoma City is a deep, young team that loves to go uptempo, one of the top offensive teams in the NBA behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, two guys who never saw a shot they didn't like. San Antonio also has a deep team and loves to run and bomb away from three point land. The over is 4-1 in the Spurs last games against the Western Conference, so look for an offensive show. Play the Spurs/Thunder over the total.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

Dave Cokin

Eastern Michigan at Ohio
Pick: Ohio

Ohio University got dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten last week when they were upset by Miami Ohio. That's a big mental hurdle for them to overcome here. But it's a very strong fundamental matchup for the Bobcats as Eastern Michigan is simply hopeless against the run. The hosts could be flat and still might cover this one, even as huge chalk. Ohio minus the points is the opinion.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

Ross King

Virginia Tech vs. Miami Florida
Play:Virginia Tech 

Since 1992 Virgina Tech is 44-23 as a road favorite and as a road favorite of 3 or less 10-1.Virgina Tech versus Miami since 1992 is 14-6 including 7-3 at Miami.Take Virgina Tech to win this one outright as your freeplay winner

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

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Kansas City +8 -105 over SAN DIEGO
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Another Thursday night snoozer has two disappointing teams from the AFC West facing off. While the Chiefs have been awful, they have done themselves in with turnovers as much as anything else. K.C. has turned the ball over on its first possession in the second half in three straight games. Incredibly, the Chiefs have still not run a play from scrimmage with the lead in any football game yet this year.
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The Chargers are just not good. QB Philip Rivers’ play has deteriorated. He is clearly uncomfortable with his receivers and even his check-down passes are hitting the turf more than intended teammates. San Diego’s offense ranks 21st in passing and 20th in rushing. When these two played in week four, the Chiefs turned the ball over six times yet they had more passing, rushing and total yards than the Chargers (349-293). 
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The Chiefs’ stock is lower than it’s ever been, creating this buy-low opportunity. Even the worst NFL teams do not get blown out every week. Kansas City is not as bad as they look, no team is. This is far too many points to be spotting with a team that has lost three straight and has beaten only Tennessee, K.C. and Oakland this year. Teams like the Patriots, Texans, 49ers and Packers are often favored by this much but when a team like the Chargers, that really is no better than its visiting divisional opponent, is favored by this margin, it’s the right time to step in. Upset alert is on.
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MIAMI +105 over Virginia Tech
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Certainly not interested in spotting points on the road with a Hokies team that has lost six straight outside of Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is just 4-4 this season with the wins against a weak group that include Georgia Tech in OT, Austin Peay, Bowling Green and Duke.
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The Hurricanes have lost three straight but those were against Notre Dame, North Carolina and Florida State. Both the Irish and Seminoles are ranked. Miami’s other loss came against another ranked team back in Week 2 in K-State. ’Canes QB Stephen Morris leads the ACC in passing yards with over 2200 so far.
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Meanwhile, Tech’s QB, Logan Thomas has completed just 53% of his passes and has thrown 10 picks against only 13 TD passes. The Hokies defense has to be considered better than the Hurricanes. However, Miami has played some of the best programs in the country. Virginia Tech’s wins have been unimpressive and its losses have been just as unimpressive. With six straight road losses and nothing imposing about them, the Hokies do not warrant being road chalk.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Western Kentucky -8
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The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are one of the best teams in the country that not too many bettors really know about. As a result, they have been under the radar over the last few years and absolutely killing it at the pay window.
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The Hilltoppers are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games overall. They are 7-1 ATS in all game this season en route to a 6-2 start. As you can see, the odds really haven't caught up to them, and they should be a bigger favorite at home tonight against Middle Tennessee.
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Western Kentucky's only losses have come against Alabama 35-0 and Louisiana-Monroe 43-42. Alabama is the clear No. 1 team in the country, and Louisiana-Monroe beat Arkansas while nearly beating both Auburn and Baylor as well.
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Middle Tennessee is 5-3 on the season, but it has some ugly losses on its resume. The Blue Raiders lost to McNeese State at home 21-27, and they lost to that same LA-Monroe team 17-31 at home. They also fell 3-45 at Mississippi State. They are without leading rusher Benny Cunningham (600 yards, 6.2/carry, 11 TD) for the rest of the season due to a knee injury as well.
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This game will be won and covered on the defensive side of the ball as both teams are pretty evenly matched offensively. Western Kentucky ranks 18th in the country in total defense (319.4 yards/game), while Middle Tennessee ranks 91st in the country in total defense (441.2 yards/game).
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The Hilltoppers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win. Western Kentucky is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 conference games. The Blue Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The Hilltoppers are 9-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Bet Western Kentucky Thursday.

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Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Virginia Tech -1.5 over MIAMI: Virginia Tech has had 11 days to stew over the loss to Clemson and this is the perfect spot for them to bounce back. First of all the Hokies are 22-3 ATS in their last 25 games as road faves of 8 points or less, plus they are 5-1 ATS the last 6 in this series and 5-0 ATS their last 5 played here. Miami, on the other hand, checks in at 1-10 ATS with rest vs a conference opponent and 0-7 off a SU loss vs an opponent off a DD SU loss. The Hokies offense has not been as explosive as they had hoped this year, but still they have averaged 399 ypg and 29 ppg on the year and will be taking on a very poor Miami defense that has allowed a whopping 499.8 and 32.4 ppg on the year and they have been equally bad vs the run and the pass, allowing 249.9 ypg for both. A very balanced defense, but in a negative way for the Canes. On Offense Miami has shown brilliance at times, but they still have averaged just 415 ypg and 26.9 ppg on the year. Tonight they face a tough defense in the Hokies as Virginia tech has allowed 370 ypg and 24 ppg on the year. These offenses rate as equals, but the Hokies get a big edge on the defensive side of the ball and their defense will be the key to winning this one. Look for Tech to take this one by a TD.

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Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Virginia Tech Hokies -1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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From everything I've seen, Virginia Tech is the better football team and should be able to continue its dominance of Miami.
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The Hokies have won three in a row and five of six versus the Hurricanes. The last three wins have come by an average of 13.7 points and all five wins during this stretch have come by at least three points. The Hokies are 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings and 5-0 against the number in their last five matchups in Miami.
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The fact Miami enters off a 33-20 home loss to Florida State bodes well for Virginia Tech backers. That’s because the Hurricanes are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games following a double-digit defeat at home. The Hokies gave up 38 points in a loss to Clemson in their last game but are 24-8-1 against the number in their last 33 games after being held to less than 20 points. The other thing to note about that game is that Virginia Tech outgained Clemson 406-295. Turnovers did the Hokies in but dominating one of the top teams in the country is a good sign.
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The Hokies should see continued offensive success against a Miami stop unit that ranks 120th in total defense with 499.8 yards allowed per game. It has especially been weak against the run. It ranks 123rd in rushing defense with 249.9 yards allowed per game. Virginia Tech, who has rushed for at least 160 yards five times this season, has the running game to take advantage.
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Lastly, the Hokies are on a 10-1 against the spread run on the road as a favorite of three points or fewer. They have won by an average of 16.1 points in this situation. Take VA Tech.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

Matt Rivers

42-30 free play run heading into tonight's action.

Free play for Thursday in college football is the 1-7 Eastern Michigan Eagles plus the generous double-digits as they play at the 7-1 Bobcats of Ohio University.

Ohio U suffered their first loss of the year last week at Miami-Ohio, but the truth of the matter is Frank Solich's team has been burning money pretty much all season against the spread. The Bobcats are on four game spread slide, and are just 3-6 against the spread at home since last season.

Eastern Michigan has been able to cover three of their last five on the year all in the underdog role, and they do catch the Bobcats a little deflated after seeing their perfect season fall by the wayside last weekend in Oxford.

No chance the Eagles spring the outright, but they do have enough punch offensively to creep inside of the back door in this MAC contest.

Take the points.

1♦ EASTERN MICHIGAN

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

Scott Delaney

On to my free winner for Thursday, and I step back on the NBA court with the only game being played, and play the defending Western Conference champion Oklahoma City Thunder against the San Antonio Spurs. Love the road underdog here, as the Thunder will be eager to get their season underway.

The Spurs opened their 2012-13 campaign last night in New Orleans, where they eked out a four-point win over the Hornets and rookie phenom Anthony Davis. And it wasn't easy, as the Spurs needed a strong finish after Davis made two free throws with 1:08 remaining to give New Orleans its final lead, 95-94.

It was evident San Antonio is going to have its hands full with an aging roster that is already minus Manu Ginobili, who missed four of eight games in the preseason because of his ailing back and sat out last night. He's day-to-day, and there has been no indication he can return tonight.

Nevertheless, the Spurs are taking on the younger Thunder team that knocked off San Antonio last season in the Western Conference finals. Of course, Oklahoma City will be without James Harden, who was dealt late off-season to the Houston Rockets. But that doesn't scare me, as the Thunder are still one of the favorites to win the West.

I understand giving the Spurs some respect by making them a small home favorite here, but the value is with the defending conference champs. Take the road pup in this game.

2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY

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Jeff Benton

Freebie winner on the Clippers last night.

24-17 run with freebies.

Your Thursday freebie is the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky as the home chalk versus conference-rival Middle Tennessee State.

The Blue Raiders were able to win and cover at home against North Texas their last time out, but this is the game in which they will sorely miss the services of RB Benny Cunningham. Western Kentucky comes in at 6-2 straight up, and they have a sparkling 3-1 spread mark when laying points this season.

In fact, WKU is an eye-popping 16-1 against the spread their last 17 lined games, while MTS has dropped 8 of their last 11 when installed as the underdog.

The Hilltoppers did win last season at Murfreesboro, but they have lost the only two home meetings against Middle Tennessee State. Don't count on that streak hitting three in a row.

Western Kentucky by two touchdowns.

4♦ WESTERN KENTUCKY

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

Harry Bondi

SAN DIEGO (-7.5) over Kansas City

These have been two "go-against" teams for much of the season, but considering the Chiefs have yet to actually lead a game in regulation time this entire season, we'll back the Bolts and call for a "circle the wagons" type of effort here at home. The Chiefs have simply been miserable on offense all season. They haven't scored more than 20 points in a game for six weeks and over the last three games, the team has scored a total of 32 points, losing all three games by a combined 41 points. San Diego's offense hasn't been much better, but has shown glimpses of being able to generate points and should be able to feast on a KC defense that has no pass rush and has been especially bad on the road, allowing 7.1 yards per play. Norv Turner's seats cools off for at least one more week as the Chargers get a much-needed easy win at home.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

David Banks

Chiefs / Chargers Over 41.5

In a rematch from Week 4, the San Diego Chargers (3-4, 3-4 ATS) hope to repeat that 37-20 victory when they again take on the Kansas City Chiefs (1-6, 2-5 ATS) on Thursday night, this time from Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA at 8:20 ET on NFL Network. Unfortunately the Chargers have not won a game since then and quarterback Philip Rivers has regressed badly in recent weeks.

The Chargers have lost three straight games since that win in Kansas City, first handing the New Orleans Saints their first win of the season, the blowing a 24-0 halftime lead vs. the Denver Broncos by getting outscored 35-0 in the second half, and then losing 7-6 to the lowly Cleveland Browns in their worst game yet last week, accumulating only 265 total yards. Rivers has gotten progressively worse as of late, and he completed 18-of-34 passes for only 154 yards vs. a Cleveland team that ranks only 25th in passing defense. Also, despite allowing only seven points against the Browns, San Diego has trouble stopping the run, allowing 133 rushing yards. That does not bode well for the Chargers on Thursday night, as for all of Kansas City's faults, one thing that the Chiefs do have is one of the best running backs in the NFL in Jamaal Charles, who was underutilized last week but can take advantage of a struggling San Diego run defense.

Yes the Chiefs are 1-6 and they have rarely even been competitive, covering the spread in only one of their losses, but there actually is some hope for them here. For some God forsaken reason, Charles ran the ball only five times in a 26-16 home loss to the Oakland Raiders last week, but you can bet that Kansas City will feed him the ball more often this week knowing that he gives the team the best shot at springing an upset. Charles ranks seventh in the NFL with his 595 rushing yards, and he is averaging an impressive 5.0 yards per carry vs. defenses mostly primed to stop him with the Chiefs having so few other options. Then again, that could be the reason that Kansas City tried to diversify the offense a bit last week, but given the disastrous results and also how bad the San Diego defense looked against the run in Cleveland, the Chiefs will probably return to leaning heavily on Charles here. After all, Kansas City does not want to get embarrassed in front of a national television audience. Also noteworthy is that Matt Cassel is back as the starting quarterback this week, making his first start since getting knocked out with a concussion by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5. Cassel may be underwhelmingly mediocre, but believe it or not he is a refreshing upgrade over his awful fill-in Brady Quinn. Cassel came off the bench to replace the ineffective Quinn (2-of-4 for one yard and one interception) last week vs. the Raiders and passed for 218 yards in a little less than three quarters.

When the Chargers go bad, they often stay bad, going 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss. The Chargers are also only 1-2 straight up here at home this year and Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. teams with losing home records.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday November, 1

OC Dooley

Eastern Michigan +15

One would think that the line of tonight’s game would explode in favor of the home team who up until this past Saturday were undefeated in conference play.  Ohio University leads the entire nation committing only 3 turnovers, while kicker Matt Weller is ranked #3 nationally in field goal percentage and connected from 56 yards out last weekend.  The Bobcats offense as a whole are averaging a healthy 34 points per contest and are going up against an opponent this evening whose defense is permitting on average more than 300 yards on the ground which is fourth-worst among Division I-A entrants.  It has already been a long season for Eastern Michigan who has committed 17 turnovers and ar e putting up on average just 22 points per contest, while actually getting shutout FIVE different times in the opening quarter. Despite all the negatives regarding the visitor the fact of the matter is that tonight’s line has actually dropped from an opening offshore figure of 16-and-a-half points which speaks volumes.  One of the reasons is that Ohio University has had problems where it counts having FAILED to cover the spread in 4 consecutive outings and they are also ranked way down at #106 nationally in third-down efficiency.  Last Saturday on the road Eastern Michigan suffered an ugly 24-3 loss, but they actually have COVERED the spread at a recent 9-1 clip on the ROAD after a game where the offense was held to single-digits.  When off a blowout loss of at least 21 points in margin, Eastern Michigan is an equally spectacular 14-3 ATS/ROAD.  To put this pick in proper perspective Eastern Michig an has faced the “second toughest” schedule in their conference and 39th nationally.  A year ago Eastern Michigan actually finished with a .500 record which included three November losses of less than a touchdown.  Tonight we have a veteran underdog that returned four offensive line starters and three different 500-yard rushers from last year’s squad that was Eastern Michigan’s most successful since 1995

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