AAA Texas 500Betting News and Notes

AAA Texas 500Betting News and Notes

Odds & Ends - Texas
VegasInsider.com

Texas Motor Speedway Data

Chase Race #: 8 of 10
Season Race #: 34 of 36 (11-04-12)
Track Size: 1.5-mile
Banking/Turns: 24 degrees
Banking/Straights: 5 degrees
Frontstretch Length: 2,250 feet
Backstretch Length: 1,330 feet
Race Length: 334 laps / 501 miles

Top 12 Driver Rating at Texas

Matt Kenseth 107.2
Greg Biffle 103.3
Tony Stewart 102.5
Jimmie Johnson 100.6
Carl Edwards 99.2
Kyle Busch 96.8
Denny Hamlin 94.6
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 92.8
Jeff Gordon. 91.3
Clint Bowyer 90.9
Mark Martin 89.0
Kurt Busch 89.0

Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2012 races (15 total) among active drivers at Texas Motor Speedway

Qualifying/Race Data

2011 pole winner: Greg Biffle, Ford, 193.736 mph, 27.873 sec., 11-04-11
2011 race winner: Tony Stewart, Chevrolet, 152.705 mph, (3:10:51), 11-06-11
Track qualifying record: Brian Vickers, Chevrolet, 196.235 mph, 27.518 sec., 11-05-06
Track race record: Greg Biffle, Ford, 160.577 mph, (3:07:12), 04-14-12

Blade
useravatar
Offline
224819 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: AAA Texas 500Betting News and Notes

Driver Highlights - Texas
VegasInsider.com

1 - Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe's Chevrolet)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 109.9

2012 Rundown
-- Four wins, 17 top fives, 23 top 10s; three poles
-- Average finish of 10.1
-- Led 24 races for 1,551 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- One win, eight top fives, 13 top 10s
-- Average finish of 9.7 in 18 races
-- Average Running Position of 11.7, fifth-best
-- Driver Rating of 100.6, fourth-best
-- 296 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 172.668 mph, sixth-fastest
-- 3,662 Laps in the Top 15 (72.9%), fifth-most
-- 585 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), sixth-most

2 - Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 97.8

2012 Rundown
-- Five wins, 12 top fives, 21 top 10s
-- Average finish of 10.3
-- Led 19 races for 650 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- Average finish of 25.3 in eight races
-- Average Running Position of 23.2, 27th-best
-- Driver Rating of 63.2, 28th-best

3 - Clint Bowyer (No. 15 5-hour Energy Toyota)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 95.6

2012 Rundown
-- Three wins, nine top fives, 21 top 10s
-- Average finish of 10.8
-- Led 13 races for 388 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- Three top fives, seven top 10s
-- Average finish of 13.3 in 13 races
-- Average Running Position of 13.4, ninth-best
-- Driver Rating of 90.9, 10th-best
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 172.572 mph, ninth-fastest

4 - Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrickcars.com/Great Clips Chevrolet)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.0

2012 Rundown
-- Two wins, 11 top fives, 18 top 10s; four poles
-- Average finish of 12.8
-- Led 11 races for 275 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- One win, four top fives, five top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 18.8 in 16 races
-- Average Running Position of 16.0, 16th-best
-- Driver Rating of 82.8, 16th-best
-- 200 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
-- 1,055 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
-- 2,759 Laps in the Top 15 (55.0%), 13th-most
-- 485 Quality Passes, 12th-most

5 - Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Office Toyota)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 102.1

2012 Rundown
-- Five wins, 13 top fives, 16 top 10s; three poles
-- Average finish of 12.6
-- Led 23 races for 1,180 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
-- Average finish of 10.3 in 14 races
-- Average Running Position of 12.6, eighth-best
-- Driver Rating of 94.6, seventh-best
-- 165 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
-- 1,111 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 172.608 mph, eighth-fastest
-- 3,085 Laps in the Top 15 (65.8%), ninth-most
-- 594 Quality Passes, fourth-most

6 - Jeff Gordon (No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 97.6

2012 Rundown
-- One win, 10 top fives, 17 top 10s; two poles
-- Average finish of 14.1
-- Led 22 races for 554 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- One win, eight top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles
-- Average finish of 16.2 in 23 races
-- Average Running Position of 14.0, 10th-best
-- Driver Rating of 91.3, ninth-best
-- 251 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 172.443 mph, 10th-fastest
-- 3,089 Laps in the Top 15 (61.5%), eighth-most
-- 524 Quality Passes, ninth-most

7 - Martin Truex Jr. (No. 56 Carlyle Tools by NAPA Toyota)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 96.7

2012 Rundown
-- Seven top fives, 18 top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 11.3
-- Led 11 races for 423 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- One top five, seven top 10s; two poles
-- Average finish of 16.1 in 14 races
-- Average Running Position of 15.2, 14th-best
-- Driver Rating of 85.0, 13th-best
-- 967 Green Flag Passes, 12th-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 172.422 mph, 12th-fastest

8 - Matt Kenseth (No. 17 Ford EcoBoost Ford)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 100.5

2012 Rundown
-- Three wins, 12 top fives, 18 top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 11.1
-- Led 21 races for 477 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- Two wins, 11 top fives, 14 top 10s
-- Average finish of 8.6 in 20 races
-- Series-best Average Running Position of 9.2
-- Series-best Driver Rating of 107.2
-- 299 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
-- 1,073 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 173.004 mph, second-fastest
-- Series-high 3,988 Laps in the Top 15 (79.4%)
-- 591 Quality Passes, fifth-most

9 - Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 100.5

2012 Rundown
-- Two wins, 11 top fives, 18 top 10s; three poles
-- Average finish of 10.5
-- Led 16 races for 721 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- Two wins, seven top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 16.2 in 17 races
-- Average Running Position of 12.6, seventh-best
-- Driver Rating of 103.3, second-best
-- Series-high 447 Fastest Laps Run
-- Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 173.009 mph
-- 3,648 Laps in the Top 15 (72.7%), sixth-most
-- 604 Quality Passes, third-most

10 - Tony Stewart (No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 87.0

2012 Rundown
-- Three wins, 11 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 13.6
-- Led 14 races for 420 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- Two wins, five top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 13.1 in 21 races
-- Average Running Position of 9.6, second-best
-- Driver Rating of 102.5, third-best
-- 339 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 172.934 mph, fourth-fastest
-- 3,910 Laps in the Top 15 (77.9%), third-most
-- 557 Quality Passes, seventh-most

11 - Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Rheem/Budweiser Chevrolet)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 90.8

2012 Rundown
-- Four top fives, 11 top 10s
-- Average finish of 12.6
-- Led 8 races for 241 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- Three top fives, nine top 10s
-- Average finish of 12.7 in 19 races
-- Average Running Position of 15.3, 15th-best
-- Driver Rating of 84.8, 14th-best
-- 1,136 Green Flag Passes, second-most
-- 2,895 Laps in the Top 15 (57.7%), 12th-most
-- 531 Quality Passes, eighth-most

12 - Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 National Guard/Diet Mountain Dew Chevrolet)

-- Season-to-Date Driver Rating: 97.6

2012 Rundown
-- One win, 10 top fives, 18 top 10s; one pole
-- Average finish of 10.7
-- Led 13 races for 358 laps

Texas Motor Speedway Outlook
-- One win, three top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles
-- Average finish of 13.9 in 20 races
-- Average Running Position of 11.3, third-best
-- Driver Rating of 92.8, eighth-best
-- 172 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
-- 1,103 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
-- Average Green Flag Speed of 172.649 mph, seventh-fastest
-- 3,930 Laps in the Top 15 (78.3%), second-most
-- Series-high 650 Quality Passes

Blade
useravatar
Offline
224819 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: AAA Texas 500Betting News and Notes

AAA Texas 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The best way to get started in handicapping this week’s race is to first look at what the Cup Series drivers did in the most recent races held at Texas Motor Speedway's sister tracks, Atlanta and Charlotte. Although each track has their own unique traits, the set-ups required by each team are similar due to the high banked 1.5-mile layout of all three.

Atlanta was run in early September and Charlotte on Oct. 13. Drivers that ran well in those two races should run well Sunday at Texas. Those two recent races hold more weight this week than the first Texas race run in April, just because it's more recent, therefore more relevant.

The top performer at Atlanta and Charlotte was Denny Hamlin, a two-time Texas winner. Hamlin won at Atlanta and finished runner-up at Charlotte. He even finished runner-up in the late May Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte. This is why he's listed as the 5/1 co-favorite this week.

The only question with Hamlin this week is how he'll respond to having his dreams of winning a Sprint Cup title flushed down the toilet after finishing 33rd last week at Martinsville. The last time Hamlin may have been as disappointed was when he blew his chances at a title in 2010 and it took him an entire 2011 to get over it.

However, the difference between 2011 and this year is that there is no winter gap in between. All the winning set-up notes crew chief Darian Grubb has will be utilized on whatever chassis the team decides to use this week (Joe Gibbs Racing drivers don't report what chassis they use each week, per Joe Gibbs, something that strangely started occurring after their trip to Las Vegas this season).

Even if Hamlin's head isn't in the race this weekend, it's likely that his car will be so good that he won't have time to think about blowing the 2012 season and will find himself competing for the win.

Jimmie Johnson is other co-favorite at 5/1, mainly because of his current form. We haven't seen Johnson win on any type of 1.5-mile track this season, but he's been close. He finished third at Charlotte three weeks ago and he also finished runner-up in the April Texas race. He's had one win over his career at Texas (2007) and has the second-best average finish (9.7) in track history.

Matt Kenseth has the best average finish (8.6) in track history that includes two wins. He's on a streak right of four straight top-5 finishes at Texas, which makes it understandable why he likes racing there so much.

“Texas is a really great race track that I really enjoy racing at twice during the season," Kenseth said earlier this week. "There are a lot of fans who always come out and support us there, and it’s also a place that I’ve been lucky enough to have had some great races and finishes at. Texas is a fast 1.5-mile track where we have options to run several lines. It’s a place that can be challenging as well since the straightaways are fairly flat while the corners have some high banking in them. I’m looking forward to this weekend and hope to have another strong performance at a 1.5-mile track similar to our run at Kansas.”

That Kansas win showed that Roush Racing had finally figured out the aero-package program that NASCAR changed at mid-season. Roush drivers had fared well on the 1.5-mile track prior, including Greg Biffle's win at Texas in April, and Biffle is optimistic about completing the sweep this week.

“I’m excited about heading to Texas this weekend and hopefully we can make it a sweep," said Biffle who will be using the same chassis from the earlier Texas win. "We tested the 2013 car there about a month ago and feel good about Texas, but to win there you have to have everything right. You’ve got to drive hard like we did in the spring and there will always be four or five guys to contend with at the end. You can run up the track, down the track, pit stops are important and the track really flattens off the corner. You have really got to watch what you do or that thing will sneak up and bite you, kind of like what happened to me in Chicago.”

That rough September day in Chicago for Biffle and the Roush team was the last of their issues on the 1.5-mile mile tracks as they found the solution they had been looking for with the aero-package. The next crack at a 1.5 was at Charlotte where Biffle finished fourth and then following week, Kenseth won at Kansas.

Like Kenseth, Biffle has a streak of four straight top-5's at Texas. But perhaps the biggest reason to like him this week, besides his 10/1 odds, is that he is using the same chassis that captured both his wins (Texas and Michigan) this season.

Look for all the Roush cars to run well this week, and maybe even Carl Edwards. Hamlin will be a beast, and Johnson will likely not press his car too much, but it will be out all with Texas guns-a-blazin' for the Roush drivers.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
2) #16 Greg Biffle (10/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
4) #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1)
5) #15 Clint Bowyer (12/1)

Blade
useravatar
Offline
224819 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: AAA Texas 500Betting News and Notes

Driver Handicaps: Texas
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Motor Racing Network brings you our weekly detailed look at some of the field for Sunday's NASCAR Sprint Cup Series AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Who's HOT at Texas

• Matt Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in nine of his last 10 starts, including a win in the 2011 spring race.
• Three-time winner Carl Edwards has posted an average finish of 4.3 in his last three starts.
• Spring winner Greg Biffle is the only driver to record top 10s in the last eight races.
• Jimmie Johnson has posted an average finish of 9.3 in the last 10 races, including a win in the 2007 fall race.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts.
• Denny Hamlin has two wins and an average finish of 8.5 in the last six races.
• Tony Stewart, who has a 12.4 average finish in the last 10 races, is the defending event winner.

Keep an Eye On at Texas

• Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon have each finished in the top 10 in their last two starts at Texas.
• Kevin Harvick (9.9), Kyle Busch (11.4) and Brad Keselowski (12.0) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.
• Mark Martin finished third in the spring at Texas and 10th at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
• Clint Bowyer will return in the same car that he won with at Charlotte Motor Speedway last month - his first Sprint Cup win on a 1.5-mile track.
• Paul Menard will be back in the same car that he recorded a season-best third-place finish with at Kansas Speedway last month.

MotorRacingNetwork.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Martin Truex Jr.
Pete Pistone: Jimmie Johnson
Ricky Hamber: Greg Biffle
John Singler: Matt Kenseth

Top 20 Driver Notes - Ordered by current standings

(All stats/notes are in regards to Texas unless noted)

Jimmie Johnson: Led 156 laps and finished second in April; Finish was 13th top 10 in 18 starts; Winner of this event in 2007; Second in average finish (8.0) among all drivers that have competed in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Leads all drivers with 483 laps led on 1.5-mile tracks in 2012; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 720) that he last finished third with at Charlotte Motor Speedway last month.

Brad Keselowski: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in eight starts; 25.2 average finish; Eighth in average finish (12.0) among all drivers that have competed in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Third among all drivers with 287 laps led on 1.5-mile tracks in 2012; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 829) that he last finished sixth with at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in September.

Clint Bowyer: Finished 17th in April in first track start with Michael Waltrip Racing; Posted seven top 10s in 12 previous starts with Richard Childress Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 740) that he won with at Charlotte Motor Speedway last month.

Kasey Kahne: Finished seventh in April in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports; Posted one win (2006 spring race) and four top 10s in 15 previous starts; Third in average finish (8.3) among all drivers that have competed in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Denny Hamlin: Swept both races in 2010; Fall win was last of eight top 10s; 10.3 average finish in 14 starts; Tied for the best average finish (7.8) among all drivers that have competed in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Fifth among all drivers with 245 laps led on 1.5-mile tracks in 2012.

Jeff Gordon: Has finished sixth or better in last two races; Winner of the 2009 spring race; 16.2 average finish in 23 starts; Ninth in average finish (12.7) among all drivers that have competed in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Martin Truex Jr: Won the pole, led 69 laps and finished sixth in the spring; Finish was third top 10 in five starts with Michael Waltrip Racing; 16.1 average finish in 14 overall starts; Tied for the best average finish (7.8) among all drivers that have competed in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Fourth among all drivers with 282 laps led on 1.5-mile tracks in 2012.

Matt Kenseth: Two-time winner; Leads all drivers in average finish (8.6) and laps led (771); Fifth in average finish (10.0) among all drivers that have competed in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 821) that he finished 14th with at Charlotte Motor Speedway last month.

Greg Biffle: Coming off second win in 17 starts; Win was eighth consecutive top 10; Second among all drivers in laps led (732); Sixth in average finish (10.3) among all drivers that have competed in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Second among all drivers with 368 laps led on 1.5-mile tracks in 2012; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 809) that he last finished 16th with at Dover International Speedway.

Tony Stewart: Defending race winner; Win was second in 21 starts; 13.1 average finish; Finished 24th in April; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 736) that he finished sixth and 13th with, resepectively, at Chicagoland Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Chase.

Kevin Harvick: Finished ninth in the spring for ninth top 10 in 19 starts; 12.7 average finish; Fourth in average finish (9.9) among all drivers that have competed in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 404) that he finished 16th with at Charlotte Motor Speedway last month.

Dale Earnhardt Jr: Coming off fourth top 10 in his last five starts; Winner of the 2000 spring race; 13.9 average finish in 20 starts; 7.4 average finish in seven starts on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Kyle Busch: 15.8 average finish in 14 starts; Last of five top 10s (third) came in the 2010 spring race; Seventh in average finish (11.4) among all drivers that have competed in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season.

Carl Edwards: Leads all drivers with three wins; Has finished eighth or better in last three starts; 15.0 average finish in 15 overall starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 820) that he last finished fifth with at Dover International Speedway in September.

Ryan Newman: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in seven starts with Stewart-Haas Racing; Won the 2003 race with Penske Racing; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 748) that he finished 20th with at Charlotte Motor Speedway last month.

Paul Menard: 20.8 average finish in 12 starts; Last of two top 10s came in the 2011 spring race; 10th in average finish (13.7) among all drivers that have competed in the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 351) that he recorded a season-best third-place finish at Kansas Speedway last month.

Joey Logano: Only top 10 (fourth) in eight starts came in this event in 2010; 25.1 average finish.

Marcos Ambrose: Only top 10 (sixth) in eight starts came in the 2011 spring race; 17.9 average finish; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 754) that he ran in a number of races this season including the 1.5-mile Chicagoland Speedway where he finished 27th.

Jeff Burton: Last of two wins came in the 2007 spring race; Last of nine top 10s came in the 2009 fall race; 16.9 average finish in 23 starts; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 367) that he last finished 24th with at Chicagoland Speedway in September.

Jamie McMurray: 17.8 average finish in 17 starts; Last of six top 10s came in the 2008 fall race; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 1106) that he ran in a number of races this season with a best finish of seventh at Bristol Motor Speedway in March.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
224819 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: AAA Texas 500Betting News and Notes

AAA Texas 500 Preview
By Greg Engle
Examiner.com

As the NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500, Jimmie Johnson finds himself in a familiar spot; on top of the points. Behind him there are 11 other drivers who will no doubt not wish him much good luck this weekend.

With only three races left in the season, the opportunity to recover from a bad race is a tall order, so any mistakes will be magnified. Realistically the Chase field has been narrowed to the top four or five, but should any of the top three have a disaster this weekend the Chase could be up for grabs. Here’s a rundown of the top 12 in points heading to Texas along with some non-Chasers who could spoil the party.

Jimmie Johnson has only one win here but has four top ten’s including two second place finishes in the last five races. One of those runner-up finishes came in the spring. But in 2009 Johnson was involved in a crash on lap 3 that sent him to the garage and a 38th place finish. If Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus are on their game this weekend however, and there’s no reason they won’t be, and if he can avoid trouble the 48 Chevy will be hard to beat Sunday.

“I expect us to be really strong this weekend at Texas,” Johnson said. “I love that race track. We were very good there in the spring. Our 1.5-mile stuff has been really fast. I’m thinking we are going to be really strong.”

Brad Keselowski will need to step up his game. He survived last week at a track many felt he would struggle out. He lost the points lead but is only two points behind. He’s never had a top ten here, and in the spring finished as the last car running coming home 36th.Can BK pull off another decent finish two weeks in a row?

Clint Bowyer ran better here when he was Richard Childress Racing; prior to this season, he had three top ten finishes including a second last spring. In his first race with Michael Waltrip Racing here in April, Bowyer finished 17th. That’s something he will definitely need to improve on Sunday.

Kasey Kahne, like Bowyer, is with a new team. With Red Bull Racing he was third in this race last year. In his first race with Hendrick Motorsports here in April, Kahne was seventh. Prior to his third last year, Kahne was outside the top ten two races prior. He won here in 2006 and Kahne has been showing some strength lately; he could have a decent finish Sunday.

Denny Hamlin needs to recover from a terrible finish last week. He took a tumble in the points and is looking for redemption this week. He does have two wins here, in fact he swept the races in 2010, but was outside the top ten since then and 12th in the spring. Hamlin will need a little magic Sunday if he hopes to turn things around.

Jeff Gordon moved up in the standings with a strong finish last week. He won here in 2009 and was fourth in the spring and sixth here in this race last year. Prior to that Gordon finished outside the top 20 in the two races previous. Gordon knows he won’t win a title this season, but could visit victory lane before season’s end and that visit could come Sunday.

Martin Truex has had a forgettable Chase so far. Coming off a second place finish at Kansas, Truex struggled to 23rd last week His last two trips here have been decent; he was sixth in the spring and eighth in this race last year. Prior to that however, his Texas record isn’t so hot with finishes outside the top 30 in the previous two Texas races.

Matt Kenseth has been a surprise in the Chase. And he could surprise again this weekend. He was fifth in the spring, fourth in this race last year and won last spring race. He was second prior to that. Kenseth won’t win a title this season but could score another win this Sunday in the Lone Star State.

Greg Biffle had mediocre run last week and is still searching to find his way. He could do just that Sunday. Biffle won in the spring and finished in the top five in three races prior to that. Biffle could be the driver to beat Sunday.

Tony Stewart has been struggling in the last few weeks and in fact the entire Chase. The reigning Cup champ won’t repeat this season, but could make some noise before it’s over. He’s the defending winner of this race but he’s surrounded by subpar runs finishing outside the top 10 in four of the last five races here.

Kevin Harvick hasn’t been a factor for the entire Chase and that probably won’t change this weekend. He was ninth in the spring and in the Texas races prior to that he has two top ten’s, but also two finishes outside the top ten including an unlucky 13th in this race last year. Don’t look for his luck to change this weekend.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. scored his first career win in 2000. In the last five races he has four top ten’s; he was tenth in the spring and seventh in this race last year. Could Earnhardt nail his second season win Sunday? He very well could.

Non-Chasers

Carl Edwards leads all active drivers here with three wins. He was eighth here in the spring, second in this race last year and third prior to that. After missing the Chase and going winless all season, Edwards needs a victory and could get that this Sunday.

Mark Martin won here back in 1998 and in the last six races had finished in the top five in three including a third here in the spring. With the strength of the MWR team behind him, Martin could be a surprise Sunday.

Bottom line: 17 of 23 races have been won from a top-10 starting position. Only one has been won from the pole - Kasey Kahne in 2006.Matt Kenseth started 31st en route to his victory at Texas in 2002, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started. Roush Fenway Racing leads all owners in victories, with nine. Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports have three wins each.

Favorites:

Jimmie Johnson
Greg Biffle
Kasey Kahne

Non-Chasers:

Carl Edwards
Mark Martin

Blade
useravatar
Offline
224819 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Re: AAA Texas 500Betting News and Notes

NASCAR Practice Notes & Driver Ratings     
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Practice Notes - Texas

Rating     Driver     Odds     Practice 1     Qualified     Practice 2     Practice 3
1     Jimmie Johnson     5/1     27th     1st     2nd     4th
2007 winner with 9.7 career average finish; using chassis that won All-Star race.

2     Matt Kenseth     10/1     7th     10th     14th     3rd
Two-time winner; track best 8.6 average finish; best 10-consecutive-lap average in practice 3.

3     Greg Biffle     10/1     10th     2nd     4th     11th
Two-time winner, including April race; has finished fifth or better in past four starts on track.

4     Brad Keselowski     8/1     3rd     8th     1st     1st
Was star of Saturday's practice sessions, but 25.3 average in eights starts counts against him.

5     Clint Bowyer     12/1     4th     4th     6th     2nd
13.3 average finish, runner-up in 2011; using winning Charlotte chassis from three weeks ago.

6     Denny Hamlin     5/1     11th     12th     3rd     6th
Swept 2010 season; recent win at Atlanta and runner-up at Charlotte says he'll be very good.

7     Jeff Gordon     12/1     26th     16th     11th     13th
Eight top-five finishes, including 2009 win; second best 10-consecutive lap average in practice 2.

8     Carl Edwards     15/1     12th     9th     5th     5th
Three-time winner; showed dramatic change in practices from rest of season, he may be back.

9     Martin Truex Jr.     15/1     1st     5th     10th     12th
Had the best average speeds and third best 10-consecutive lap average in practice 2.

10     Kyle Busch     8/1     14th     3rd     7th     8th
15.8 career average finish; strong Atlanta and Charlotte runs make him a contender.

Note: Recent results from races held at Texas' sister 1.5-mile high-banked tracks in Atlanta (Sept 2) and Charlotte (Oct. 13) offer great insight to who may be the best prepared Sunday.

Betting Notes: I don't know if I've ever been more impressed with Brad Keselowski than I was Saturday during practice when he was fastest in both practice sessions. Here's a driver that could have wilted away under pressure -- I didn't say Denny Hamlin -- after losing his points lead last week, knowing that he is going to one of worst tracks statistically (25th average finish), and yet in practice alone, he gives something for Jimmie Johnson to sleep on over night.

Instead of Johnson coming in full of confidence -- which he will anyway -- knowing Keselowski's track-record at Texas, now he knows he's got to bring his A-game Sunday. He turned the tables back around on Johnson, and even though Johnson won't acknowledge such, there is more pressure on him to win his sixth title than there is on Keselowski to win his first. Also in the back of Johnson's mind is spinning out and losing control on his own at Texas last fall, which helped eliminate his chances of winning six straight titles.

Having said all that, I really like Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle and Clint Bowyer in this race. I think the top long shot is Martin Truex Jr and I also think Carl Edwards actually has a chance to win as well, for some of the same reasons I like Biffle and Kenseth.

Blade
useravatar
Offline
224819 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
45937
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
290884
Average Posts Per Hour:
3.3
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3771
Newest User:
John
Members Online:
1
Guests Online:
1925

Online: 
Glen Oaks

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com