Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Jim FeistFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Redskins    
Play: Carolina Panthers
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Carolina has a bad record but has been competitive in every game but one, with losses by 6, 2, 4, 5 and 1 point! Last week they had the 6-1 Bears beat on the road, before letting a big lead slip away in a 23-22 defeat. The Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. They take on a terrible Washington defense, one ranked dead last in defending the pass allowing a whopping 314 yards per game. Washington is home after a grueling two game trip at the defending champion Giants and Steelers, both losses. he Redskins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and 9-25-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Play the Panthers!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Ravens -3.5
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The Ravens get the call as my free pick due to their dominance of the Browns. Baltimore is 9-0 in the last 9 matchups and has especially been dominant on the road during this stretch. It is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 in Cleveland, winning these by 10.0 points or more. Following a bye week, I expect the Ravens to be prepared. I also expect them to be motivated as their last taste was an ugly 43-13 loss at Houston. They were outgained by 244 yards in that contest, but that's not about to keep me off of them here. After all, Baltimore is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games after being outgained by 200 yards or more in its previous game. It has won in these spots by an average of 11.0 points. Bet the Ravens.

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Jeff Alexander FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami Dolphins -2
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The Dolphins, who have won three in a row by 3.0 points or more, have been a quality investment at 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games. They are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record and 23-5 ATS in their last 28 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Indianapolis. The Phins have played consistently good football for 6 straight games now as their only only two losses during this stretch have come in overtime. Take Miami.

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Nick Parsons FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Dallas CowboysFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With Atlanta coming off narrow home victories vs the Raiders and Panthers, we will take Dallas, who are in a desperate situation and will be playing in front of a national audience. As the NFL's only unbeaten team, the public is behind the Falcons big time, and after coming off a big road win over the Eagles, we are looking at another letdown here after previously average showings at home by Atlanta. The Falcons have been terrible against the run giving up 136 yards per game on the ground and that sets up well for Felix Jones, who despite being banged up, is primed for a breakout game against this suspect D. While Tony Romo is the focal-point for the Cowboys problems, and despite throwing four INTs against the Giants last week, he threw for a career high 437 yards and was a play away from beating the Giants. Romo keeps the Cowboys in the game late and the points in hand will be a benefit if Dallas is driving late to tie or take the lead. The Falcons are 28-0 when Matt Ryan has a psser rating above 100, and the gameplan for the Dallas D will be to take Matt Ryan off his game with a fierce pass rush led by D'marcus Ware and pass defense that ranks third in the league with only 187 yards against per game. The Cowboys in fact are 4th overall in the league in total defense and will be a big test for the Falcons who are fighting to stay atop the NFC standings. Take the Cowboys with the points.

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Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle -5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Vikings QB Ponder is still learning. He's thrown 7 picks in the last 4 games. Seems untrustworthy with the realization that there is a good chance that the Vikings run game will get shut down today. In the 5 wins this year, the Vikings have gotten untracked overland for 147/4.7. Don't figure that to happen against the Seattle rush defense that allows foes to run just 23 times for 85/3.7. Those numbers improve to 73/3.5 on this field. That would be a home field where the Seahawks are on positive runs of 9-2, 6-0 ATS. Losing on the final play of the game at Detroit (despite outrushing the Lions 133-84) will bring Seattle back home with great hunger. In 3 home games to date, they have beaten Dallas, Green Bay, and New England. On this field against this opponent, they will have the better running game and defense, a situation that makes them the odds on favorite to cover a number in this price range.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Bob Balfe

Ravens/Browns Over 42

The Baltimore Ravens Defense is not what it once was and it might take us a season or two to realize that. This Defensive line is banged up and has played poor all season. Cleveland should have no problem running the ball. The Ravens Offensive Line has a huge size advantage today going up against a Browns Defensive Line that has injuries also. The Ravens should have no problem running the ball. You are going to have offensive success in this league if you can run the ball. It opens up receivers and just makes it so much easier to move the ball. This should be a really good game with a good amount of points. Take the Over.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Greenridge Sports

Denver Broncos -3.5

The Denver Broncos are surging under future Hall Of Fame QB Peyton Manning. Since his performance in Atlanta, Manning has 15 TD's to just 1 interception. Denver's defense is also showing some signs that they can be the force they were late in the year last year and have been excellent in recent weeks. Cincinnati on the other hand has been going the opposite direction. After a promising start to the year it appears that the Bengals are returning to their usual, lowly form. Head Coach Marvin Lewis may very well be nearing the end of his time in Cincinnati. Look for Denver to continue surging as the Broncos should cruise to an easy win over the Bengals!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Larry Ness

Detroit vs. Jacksonville
Pick: Detroit

The Lions ended a playoff drought which had gone back to 1999 when they went 10-6 last year (lost at New Orleans in the wild card round). However, history says a second straight trip to the postseason is highly unlikely for Detroit, which was 2-4 through Week 7. Only 18 of the 208 teams that started the season with the same record have made the playoffs (since 1990), most recently accomplished by Tim Tebow-led Denver last season. The Lions did win 28-24 at home last Sunday against the Seahawks (I had them right here on these pages) and will now try to even their record at 4-4, with a win Sunday in Jacksonville. The Lions' three victories have been by a combined 11 points, with two decided in the final 20 seconds of regulation and the other in overtime, so maybe laying points on the road is NOT a good idea. Then again, one must consider the circumstances. The Jags are 1-6 and looking to avoid a five-game losing streak. Jacksonville is the NFL’s worst passing team (164.0 YPG) and the team's lone offensive ‘weapon,’ RB Maurice Jones-Drew, remains out with a foot injury. While the team has been competitive in its road games (1-3 but 4-0 ATS), the Jags are 0-3 SU and ATS at home, getting outscored 95-20! Detroit’s Matthew Stafford has NOT had a good start to the 2012 season but I’m expecting him to come on strong. Let’s note that in a 2011 season in which both Brees and Brady broke Dan Marino's single-season passing yards record (and Rodgers was the league’s MVP by setting a single-season QB rating mark of 122.5 with 4,643 yards plus 45 TDs against only six INTs), Stafford ‘quietly’ threw for 5,038 yards with 41 TDs and a modest 16 INTs. Stafford joined Dan Marino and Drew Brees as the only players to pass for more than 5,000 yards plus throw 40 TDs in the same season. Stafford enters this game 52 passing yards shy of 10,000 for his career. If he gets there Sunday in his 37th career game (how can’t he?), he'll become the second-fastest player in history to reach the mark behind Kurt Warner (36). Not bad company. Stay away from the home dog here and take the Lions.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Bruce Marshall

Tampa Bay vs. Oakland
Pick: Over

"Totals" trends both ways present compelling technical argument for the "over" when Tampa Bay travels to the Coliseum to face the Raiders in Oakland on Sunday.  Note that the Bucs' offense, perking up with rookie RB Doug Martin providing a spark, has helped Tampa Bay to easy "overs" in their last two this season, and 8 of 12 since late in the 2011 campaign.  Meanwhile, the Raiders, with QB Carson Palmer getting comfy with his supporting weaponry, is now "over" 6-1 its last seven at home.  Expect a brisk pace and an entertaining battle played in the mid-to-high 50s in the East Bay on Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Scott Spreitzer

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins
Prediction: Carolina Panthers

I had Carolina last week and we cashed the ticket, while the Panthers came within a point of upsetting the Bears in Chicago. Carolina is just 1-6 SU this season, but five of their losses have come by a grand total of just 18 points. They lost in Atlanta in the final minute, blew a 19-7 4th quarter lead in Chicago last week, and came within a couple of plays of beating Dallas, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. Yes, at 1-6, the Panthers are not that far away from a 5-2 or even a 6-1 mark. The Panthers scored 33 points on the Redskins last season and face a 2012 Washington defense that ranks 29th in total yards allowed per game, while giving up 19 passing TDs. Meanwhile, the Washington offense has scored just 17, 24, and 12 points in three of their last four games. I'm recommending a play on the Panthers, plus the points on Sunday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Michael Alexander

Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans    
Play: Tennessee Titans

his will be the third home game for the Titans, following an outright loss but they are 2-0 SU & ATS, upsetting the Lions & the Steelers. They couldn't make it 3 straight wins but loss in overtime last week.

Tennessee RB Johnson has 294 rushing yard the last 2 weeks while QB Hasselbeck hitting 64% of his passes for the season.

Chicago off a win at the final whistle hosting Carolina. But they had a 416-210 yard deficit while Cutler was sacked 6 more times.

The Titans are 5-0 ATS as November home underdogs versus .500+ opponents, while Chicago HC Smith is 1-10 ATS off a non-division game versus an opponent off being upset.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Don Best Consensus

Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Detroit Lions

It's very easy for teams in the NFL to play down to their competition...as Green Bay did last weeks vs. the Jags. Detroit can not afford to let the Jags stay in this game. They must win and we feel the number is a bit short...Stafford finally get this Lions offense moving today vs. Jacksonville. The Jags pass defense can be had and their offense can't match the potential point production of the Lions. Play on Detroit. Check out today's picks from The Don Best Consensus...now 12-4 in our last 16 selections...Take a ride with the "Consensus"

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Dave Cokin

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Raiders have managed to win a couple in a row, but defeating Jacksonville in OT and getting past an horrendous KC squad doesn't indicate power. Tampa Bay is the better team and while I generally avoid public dogs like the proverbial plague, I have to lean Bucs today.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Greg Daraban

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins
Pick: Washington Redskins

Hard to believe line is so low. Carolina has one win and at a 3 point spread they are asking Cam and Crew to win outright. Panthers also playing second week on the road RG III will have team ready to go.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

Seattle/ Minnesota Under 38.5: (Added) Both of these teams have had just 2 bad defensive games on the year and this one will not be a third. Minnesota allowed 36 points last week to Tampa Bay and 38 points 2 weeks earlier to Washington But stil they come in having allowed just 20.9 ppg on the year. They may allow 24.7 ppg at home, but just 326.7 ypg. They will take on an unimaginative and conservative Seattle offense that averages just 303 ypg and 17.5 ppg on the year. Seattle comes in 31st in passing (191.8 ypg) and 8th in rushing (131.9 ypg), so you can expect more of a running attack from them, which will eat clock. The Seattle defense has been very tough this year ranking 5th overall (312 ypg) and 3rd in points allowed (16.8 ppg). Seattle is 5th in the league vs the run (84.9 ypg) and that is Minnesota's main method of offense as they rank 7th in rushing, compared to 27th in passing. This game will feature a ton of rushing and plenty of defense in a game where we don't see more than 31 points scored.

4 UNIT PLAY

Baltimore -4 over CLEVELAND: The First time these teams met the Ravens had come off a big revenge game with new England and had just 3 days to prepare for Cleveland and their rookie QB. Baltimore won the game but it was by just 7 points as they didn't really show much urgency in the game. This week they take on Cleveland off a bye week (9-1 ATS with rest) and will be ready for a big outing, especially since they were humiliated in their last game before the bye in losing by 30 points to Houston. The Ravens do have injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but Terrell Suggs is back and has had the bye week to prepare for this game. He and his mates should harass this rookie QB into making some costly mistakes. The Cleveland offense is weak at number 29 overall and they are 19th in passing, with Weedon having just a 70.8 passer rating. He will struggle once again in this one. The Cleveland defense has not been hat solid ranking 26th overall, while allowing 23.2 ppg (19th). Last week they did hold SD to just 2 FG's but the weather had allot to do with that as well. The Cleveland defense is 25th vs the pass and will be taking on a Ravens no-huddle attack that ranks 13th in passing, putting up 251 ypg. Cleveland also hasn't had their week off yet so they may be a bit tired at this point in the season and facing a no-huddle attack is not the best thing for them to be facing here. Baltimore has taken the last 9 in the series, winning all 9 by at least 6 points and I expect them to go a little further in this one as I look for them to take it by 2 TD's.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Carolina/ Washington Over 48: This game should be an old fashion shootout. Here we have two of the better mobile and exciting QB's in the league, going up against a couple a couple of defenses that have been struggling and have been hit hard by injuries this year. The Washington defense has been horrible all year as they have allowed 406.4 ypg and 28.4 ppg. The Skins are dead last in the league vs the pass and that should allow Cam Newton to have one of his better games of the year. The Panthers average 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which is 5th in the league, while the Skins allow 7.6 ypa (26th) so you can bet that they will get some big plays down field. On the other side of the ball the Carolina defense is middle of the pack, but this Washington offense is very good and can score points in bunches. Washington is 6th in total offense (387.4 ypg) and 2nd in rushing (167.6 ypg) and that running game will only set up some big plays for RG3 to make down field.  Washington is 20th in the league in passing, but they are 4th in ypa (7.5 and will be facing a Carolina defense that allows 6.8 ypa (20th), so Washington should also get some big plays in the passing game in this one. This one should be fun as these teams combine for around 55 points.

POWER ANGLE PLAY

HOUSTON -10 over Buffalo: This Texans team had a very nice 30 point blowout over Baltimore right before their bye week and now they have had a week to prepare for Buffalo. The Bills are off a tough loss at home to Tennessee and for the most part they have done very well vs the mediocre teams in the league, but in their two games vs the elite teams (San Fran and New England) they were outscored by a combined 66 points. Well Houston is one of the elite team in the league. Houston is 3-1 at home this year and in their 3 wins they won by at least 20 points in each win.  The Buffalo offense has been pretty weak on the road averaging 311 ypg and 18.5 ppg, while Houston averages 343.8 ypg and 33.8 ppg at home. Defensively the Texans have an even a bigger edge as they have allowed 283 ypg overall, compared to the Bills allowing 424.1 ypg. On the road the Bills allow 30.8 ppg, while the Texas allow just 19.8 ppg at home. Both teams are rested for this one, but Houston has many more edges on both sides of the ball, they are at home and will take this one by at least 2 TD's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on a non divisional favorite off a bye week if they scored 35 or more points before their bye week. This play is 16-1 ATS since 1997. 


Pittsburgh +3 over NY GIANTS:  Despite all their defensive injuries the Pittsburgh defense is has still been playing solid ball, ranking 2nd in total defense and 1st against the pass. Defense is where the Steelers have a big edge as the Giants come in ranked 24th in total defense and 26th vs the pass and that should give Big Ben plenty of opportunities to move the ball down field. The Steeler offense has struggled to run the ball, but that is turning around for them, which will only open more holes down field for their 7th ranked passing offense to take advantage of the weak Giants pass defense. The Giants offense has been very good this year and it rates pretty equal to that of Pittsburgh, but the defensive edge that Pittsburgh has will be the difference in this one. Look for Pitt to get the outright upset.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Charlie Scott

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Oakland Raiders   
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

The TB Bucs coached under Schiano is everything the Raiders aren't. Schiano has established Bill Parcells Football theory where Teams run the ball on offense & Stop the run on defense and don't beat Yourself with stupid Turnovers and penalties. TB is rested as they last played on Thursday Night and are the better team.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

RICH SPORT'S

Buffalo + 10

Play Buffalo plus the points versus Houston. I see this as a great spot to take the big dog in the NFL as Houston is still riding their high of beating up on the Ravens and have the Bears on deck, no way can they be emotionally into a game against the Bills. The Bills have enough offensive power to be able to hang with the Texans as they are scoring 24.5 PPG, the leagues 12th ranked offense.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Stump The Spread

Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Cowboys continue to be an accident waiting to happen and it must be getting frustrating to their fan base and owner. After turning the ball over 6 times against the Giants last week the Cowboys were still in position to win in dramatic fashion but Dez Bryant's pinky cost them the game. This has pretty much been the story for this team since their opening game win and now they have to go on the road and play the 7-0 Atlanta Falcons. Their loss against the Giants dropped the Cowboys to 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games. Atlanta has been discredited by most of the media as being undefeated as a result of a weak schedule. This has to get the Falcons fired up and they will look to prove themselves in this game on national television. Atlanta is 5th in the league in overall scoring and this offense is almost impossible to slow down. Matty Ice has been putting up huge numbers and it helps that he has guys like White, Jones, and Gonzalez to throw to. Also Michael Turner has returned to prominence this year and that has been a big contributor to the Falcons success. I like Atlanta to cover this spread at home. Pick: Falcons -3.5

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Harry Bondi

Chicago / Tennessee Under 43.5

Expect a low-scoring game here as the Bears defense is a bad match-up for the Tennessee offense. The Bears ranks 2nd in the NFL in points per game and 7th in yards per game, but more importantly they have 23 sacks -- 3rd best in the league -- and that doesn't bode well for a struggling Tennessee offensive line and its lead-footed QB Matt Hasselbeck. The Chicago offensive game plan, meanwhile, will be to simply feed its two-headed RB duo of Forte and Bush against the porous Titan run defense, keep the clock running and escape with a road win. Go under.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Steve Merril

Timberwolves at  Raptors
Play: Over 188

Minnesota scored 92 points in their season opening win over Sacramento on Friday night. However, the Timberwolves shot the ball terribly as they hit just 36.8% (32-87) from the field and an ugly 11.8% (2-17) from three-point land. Minnesota played aggressive and attacked the rim as they went to the free throw line 36 times. That attacking style will work again as Toronto allowed Brooklyn to get to the free throw line 37 times last night. The Nets scored 107 points on the Raptors defense so Minnesota should have similar success in this game.

Toronto is a fast-paced team this season. The Raptors have put-up 173 shots in their two games and 35 shots from three-point land. Like Minnesota, they are an attacking team that has attempted 44 free throws so far this season. Toronto’s defense was run off the court last night so they’ll struggle in this back-to-back set. We expect both teams to run which will lead to a high-scoring game between the Timberwolves and Raptors on Sunday night.

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