Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

DUNKEL INDEX

Pittsburgh at NY Giants
The Giants look to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 road games.  New York is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 9 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3)

Game 415-416: Denver at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.631; Cincinnati 129.723
Dunkel Line: Denver by 9; 51
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Arizona at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 128.916; Green Bay 137.878
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9; 49
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 11; 44
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+11); Over

Game 419-420: Miami at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 130.178; Indianapolis 131.441
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+2 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.684; Cleveland 129.428
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3 1/2); Under

Game 423-424: Buffalo at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 125.396; Houston 137.930
Dunkel Line: Houston by 12 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Houston by 10; 47
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-10); Over

Game 425-426: Carolina at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.186; Washington 131.606
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2); Under

Game 427-428: Detroit at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 128.145; Jacksonville 127.085
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Over

Game 429-430: Chicago at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 132.832; Tennessee 131.474
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Under

Game 431-432: Minnesota at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.755; Seattle 134.770
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+5); Over

Game 433-434: Tampa Bay at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 135.223; Oakland 128.261
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 7; 49
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1 1/2); Over

Game 435-436: Pittsburgh at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.073; NY Giants 143.582
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 9 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3); Under

Game 437-438: Dallas at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 131.415; Atlanta 139.787
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Under

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5

Game 439-440: Philadelphia at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 133.836; New Orleans 132.938
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 56
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Over

NBA

Minnesota at Toronto
The Raptors look to build on their 8-1-1 ATS record in their last 10 games against Western Conference teams. Toronto is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Raptors favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3)

Game 701-702: Philadelphia at New York (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 122.478; New York 119.808
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4; 187
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+4); Over

Game 703-704: Minnesota at Toronto (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 108.669; Toronto 118.268
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 9 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 3; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3); Under

Game 705-706: Phoenix at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 117.336; Orlando 117.221
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+2); Over

Game 707-708: Atlanta at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 120.767; Oklahoma City 130.315
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 709-710: Detroit at LA Lakers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 110.666; LA Lakers 123.608
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 13; 186
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8; 191
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-8); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Baltimore RavensFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a very good spot for Baltimore this week. The last time we saw the Ravens, they got crushed at Houston by 30 points while getting outgained by 244 total yards. That was the third straight game that they have been outgained so going into the bye week, they have not been playing at a high level. The off week could not have come at a better time as they have been able to regroup while stewing over that loss for two weeks. This is a must win for Baltimore as the schedule is demanding the rest of the way. Cleveland has just two wins this season but it has been very competitive. Four of the Browns six losses have been by a touchdown or less but they have been fortunate in some regards to keep games that close. They have been outgained in seven of their eight games including last week when they defeated San Diego as Cleveland was outgained by 15 yards and won thanks to a dropped touchdown pass by the Chargers. Cleveland is off next week as it has a late bye this season. The Ravens are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season as they managed only 176 total yards against Houston. It was an aberration as the Ravens offense had been playing very well. While the passing game has taken center stage, we should see a successful rushing attack here as Baltimore is averaging 4.7 ypc which is fourth best in the NFL. The Browns meanwhile are allowing 4.4 ypc on defense which is 23rd and their overall defense is ranked 26th in the league. Baltimore is known for its strong defense nut that has not been the case this season as age and injuries have caught up. The Ravens have faced some very potent offenses however and this is not one of them. Cleveland is ranked 29th in total offense and 25th in scoring offense and it has been held to 16 points or fewer in five of its eight games including the first meeting against Baltimore. The Ravens have owned this series with wins in nine straight meetings including the first one this season. The Ravens only won that game by a touchdown which is actually a good thing as the close win will be a motivator for this game. The road team has covered six straight meetings while Baltimore is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Cleveland. The Browns are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a win while the Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo vs. HoustonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo is 3-4 SU/ATS. The O/U is 5-2. Two weeks ago it lost 35-34 to Tennessee as a 4-point favorite.
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All three of the Bills home contests have gone "over" the number; their four on the road are 2-2.
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However they've scored a total of just 22 points in their last two games away from friendly confines.
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Note that the Bills have seen the total go "under" the number in 14 of their last 23 following a "bye week".
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Houston is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. The O/U is 4-3. Two weeks ago it hammered Baltimore 43-13.
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Note that Houston has seen the total go "under" the posted number in seven of its last ten after its "bye week".
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With each coming out of its respective break, I'm anticipating a highly concerted effort from both clubs on the defensive side of the ball.
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The Texans are large favorites in this one, and we can expect them to run the ball at this beleaguered Bills line throughout the game.
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I believe there are enough significant factors to expect a lower scoring affair; consider a second look at the "under" in this one!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

SspartanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cardinals / Packers Under 43.5
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We cashed in last week on the free release on the Colts, let's see if we can get another one here. I'm taking the under here guys sunday at Lambeau field as the Packers play host to the free falling Cardinals. Arizona has their prime time opportunity to seize the moment and restore some order to their season monday night but failed miserably as the Niner's came into town and showed the entire country just how inept this Arizona offense has become. John Skelton has actually regressed, if that is possible. That offensive line is a total joke and now they travel to Green Bay with a short week. What I anticipate here is the Packers to put in a workmanlike effort and dispatch this Cardinals team is a fairly uneventful contest. The Cardinals offense will continue to sputter and leak oil and when all is said and done the final settles in under the total guys. Frankly the Packers defense has it's issues with injuries right now but this Arizona club does not have the weapons to take advantage.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

King CreoleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dolphins / Colts Over 43
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An indoor battle of two 'OVER-achievers (pun intended) should lead to lots of points this Sunday. If the Playoffs started today, BOTH of these teams would be IN (Miami and Indy are both 4-3 SU). Both of these teams are off unlikely outcomes in their last game, as well (Division road UNDERDOG wins). So that's where the querying starts. And it's the ROAD team (Dolphins) that's laying the points this week.
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12-1 O/U since 2004: All GAME 4 > road favs (MIAMI) playing off a SU division road DOG win.
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The Colts went one BETTER. They won their road game in OVERTIME (19-13 vs the Titans).
6-0 O/U since 2003: All non-division home dogs playing off a road dog OVERTIME win (INDY) versus any opp off a SU win (MIA).
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Put both situations together, and we get:
9-1-1 O/U last 6 years: All NON-division games in which BOTH teams ae off a road DOG win (Mia vs Indy) when the OU line is 45 < points.
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As Indy is one of the few DOME teams in the NFL, that's worthy of a few more database queries. (1) 8-1 O/U since 2005: All GAME 8-9 'Homer DOMER' undertdogs (COLTS) when the OU line is < 47 points. (2) 5-0 O/U L4Y: All > .500 Homer DOMER teams playing off BB SU wins and BB 'Unders' (COLTS) vs any < .500 opponent (DOLPHINS).
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When these two divisions (AFC South / AFC East) get together, the results have been high scoring in the 2nd half of the season.
9-1 O/U last 4 years: All GAME 6 or greater AFC SOUTH teams (INDY) vs an AFC EAST opponent (MIA). These games have averaged a combined 52.5 total PPG, about 10 points higher than this week's OU line. 
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Miami held the Jets to only 9 points on their own home field last Sunday.
8-0 O/U last 3 years: All CONFERENCE favorites of < 5 pts (MIA) after allowing 10 or less points on the ROAD in their last game.
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This week's OU line (opened at 43-42.5) is in a good range for an 'Over' in this conference.
15-3 O/U L3Y: All AFC home dogs of < 10 pts (INDY) vs an AFC non-div opponent (MIA)... in the range of 41-47 pts.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas +4 -108 over ATLANTA
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Backing the Cowboys is not for the faint of heart. They are an adventure in anxiety whether you take them or go against them. Still, the talent level remains high and if they can ever get through a game without multiple pumpkin head mistakes, they are a dangerous foe. The Cowboys come in with a very good secondary that only once allowed more than one touchdown. The Cowboys are also good against the run. They were supposed to beat both the G-Men last week and the Ravens the week before. An inordinate amount of mental and physical mistakes have been their undoing but these are exactly the types of games they usually pull off.
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Atlanta remains undefeated. They won’t run the table but they are a well balanced team with good coaching and an MVP candidate in QB Matt Ryan. But the Falcons are not battle tested. They’ve played the easiest schedule in the league based on Won-Loss records of opponents. They play in what is turning out to be a soft division (they have a four-game lead on Tampa already) and they have faced only one winning team when they hung on to beat Denver in a prime time game in Week 2. Dallas games provide drama until the final gun. So have Falcons home games, having yet to win by more than six when hosting. No reason to believe this one will be any different.
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CINCINNATI +4 -106 over Denver
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Like the stock market, we constantly preach to sell high and buy low. This is a classic case. The football world has fallen back in love with Peyton Manning and his new found Broncos. Manning is on the front page of every sports site on the internet. In this week’s NFL programming and previews, the Broncos are the lead story. Manning was also awarded the NFL’s Player of the Month on Wednesday. Denver is coming off that Sunday Night blowout win over New Orleans. Its stock hasn’t been this high since John Elway was taking snaps. 
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The Broncos opened as a 3½-point choice. It’s already been bet up to -4 and is likely to be higher by Sunday. There are hundreds of shows that will break this game down for you with X’s and O’s and tell you why the Broncos will win. We’re showing you an alternative method that usually works out well. Broncos backers have been warned.
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N.Y. GIANTS -3½ +106 over Pittsburgh
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The only thing scary about the Steelers is those uniforms they wore last week. For whatever reason, Pittsburgh continually gets treated like they are elite when in fact, they are not. In Pittsburgh’s past 16 games, it has defeated one team with a winning record. That was a home game to the Bengals in December of last year, not exactly a signature win. Against other winners over that span, the Steelers are 0-4.
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The Giants, well, they won the Super Bowl. They were recently a 7-pt underdog in San Francisco and won outright, followed by a sweep of two divisional opponents. Now they are home to this poor traveling team that has three covers in past 14 away, including straight up losses at Tennessee and Oakland this year. Yet, the Steelers are only a 3½-point underdog? It’s a public number that misrepresents these two. The G-Men take no prisoners. They just figure out ways to win and then execute, as they will on this day.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo +10 -105 over HOUSTON
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Buffalo’s defensive liabilities are no secret but the two weeks that both squads had off figures to aid the Bills taking double digits more than a Houston team that wanted rest as much as anything else. Buffalo has enough offensive talent to work the clock here, score some points and keep this one within range.
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After this will be four road games over five weeks for the Texans and it begins with a prime time affair at Soldier Field. That is likely at the forefront of the Texans’ minds, as they were completely humiliated in their last prime time affair just two weeks ago at home against Green Bay. With a healthy lead over the rest of the division and with a chance for prime time redemption, the chances are good that Houston will be wearing its mailmen uniforms. No units risked.
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Arizona +10½ -109 over GREEN BAY
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It’s difficult to support the Cardinals here after witnessing the dismantlement to the Niners on Monday night. After a 4-0 start, Arizona has regressed horribly and now look like they may not win another game all year. That provides us with this buy-low opportunity.
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Green Bay receivers remain banged up, the running game continues to struggle and they have games on deck against Detroit and G-Men. In a similar spot last week against Jacksonville, the Pack failed to cover as double digit faves.  A repeat would not surprise. No units risked.
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Miami -2 -109 over INDIANAPOLIS
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Colts are headed in right direction but there is still much work to be done. Indy’s 27th ranked run defense needs to improve and this is not the best matchup for them. Three of the Colts’ four wins have occurred when they’ve exceeded 100 yards rushing. Against Miami’s 3rd ranked run stoppers, that’s unlikely to occur. It’s also worth noting that these young Colts have a Thursday night featured game on deck. It will be the first chance for Andrew Luck and company to strut their stuff in front of a national audience. In a favorable spot, Indy would be hard pressed to beat the undervalued Fish but with that aforementioned prime-timer up next, such is not the case.
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Miami is 4-3 but could easily be 6-1 after blowing what looked like sure wins against Arizona and Jets. They learned from that experience with three straight wins and are in a strong position to make it four. Don’t diss the Fish. No units risked.
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JACKSONVILLE +4½ -106 over Detroit
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Neither cat very ferocious right now. The Lions managed a late win over Seattle last week but issues still remain. Jacksonville home after competing in two road games and the team may have found a couple of emerging young players in WR Cecil Shorts and RB Rashad Jennings. Lions spotting road points lacks appeal and even more so with important divisional games against Vikes and Packers on deck. No units risked.
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CLEVELAND +3½ -102 over Baltimore
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These two met on a Thursday night a few weeks ago with Baltimore needing a full effort for a 7-point win. Joe Flacco will not have the luxury of an absent Joe Haden this time around.
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Cleveland has upgraded its game since the earlier loss to these Blackbirds and fine rookie RB Trent Richardson should be able to inflict some damage to the Ravens’ weak run defense. Brandon Weeden already passed for 320 yards in Baltimore back in Week 4 and now the Ravens are on the road with their banged up defense. Brownies strong against winning teams with five straight covers. No units risked.
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CAROLINA +3 +103 over Washington
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Carolina not quite as bad as record indicates, having battled in all games but one vs. Giants. After facing defenses of Chicago, Dallas, Seattle and Atlanta in previous four, this 29th ranked defense of the Skins offers much needed relief. 
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Robert Griffin III has received as much media attention this year as Cam Newton did last year. Such extensive coverage and praise is seldom beneficial for backers. Besides, it’s rarely a good idea to be spotting points with a team as defensively weak and wounded as this current Redskins bunch. For the record, Mike Shanahan said he felt like a dummy for sending his recently concussed franchise quarterback out on a pass pattern to be predictably blasted by a defender. Don’t worry coach, what you lack in common sense and judgment you make up for with self-awareness and razor sharp self-evaluation. Panthers won this contest last season by a 33-20 count. This one sets up for a similar result. No units risked.
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TENNESSEE +3½ -110 over Chicago
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Chicago’s defense remains strong but its offense does not appear to be in sync and they could easily get caught overlooking this one. Chicago has much more important dates to focus on with next Sunday night’s prime time home date with Texans, followed by a trip to San Francisco. One could understand why they would be peeking ahead.
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The Titans remain home after a tough overtime loss. Their past three games with veteran Matt Hasselbeck under center have come down to the final seconds. Tennessee should be ready to do battle again. We also like the rare opportunity to be taking home points with a team hosting consecutive games versus a team traveling after two as hosts. No units risked.
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SEATTLE -4 -104 over Minnesota
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The Seahawks have won and covered all three games played this season in Seattle. If they can defeat Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers on their own field, Christian Ponder poses very little threat.
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The Vikings started well but things have nose-dived and this Seattle defense should add to Minnesota’s woes. The loss by Minnesota to Tampa Bay last Thursday was a disaster. It highlighted what was wrong with the team and undid much of the good that a 5-2 start suggested. We’re passing the halfway point this week and true colors are starting to come out. Vikes colors came out last week and likely continues here. This is not a 5-3 team. No units risked.
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OAKLAND -2 -107 over Tampa Bay
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Buccaneers garnering attention after recent scoring outbursts that have seen them put up 28 or more in three straight games and 114 over past four. Facing the Saints, Chiefs, Vikes and Redskins can do that for a club. We’re not complaining, as that helps to shorten this price with an Oakland team that has won consecutive games and will face a Tampa squad that lost important All-Pro left guard Carl Nicks. Tampa’s win at Minnesota last week was its first road win of the year.
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Raiders offense is slowly beginning to find a rhythm and that should continue against Bucs 31st ranked passing defense, which is giving up an average of 309 yards per game. Not often do we get an opportunity to spot such a small number with host against such a low ranked defense and that among other factors dictates this play. No units risked.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

Wunderdog

Minnesota at Seattle
Pick: Minnesota +4

The Minnesota Vikings and the Seattle Seahawks both took it on the chin last week and will be looking to rebound. Seattle is certainly an improved team. But if not for a replacement ref's blown call they would be entering this game at just 3-5. They are still suffering growing pains, and have to live and die by rookie QB Russell Wilson. Wilson has had a pretty good rookie season, but he hasn't learned to throw the ball away yet. He keeps trying to force the action, and the price has been 8 INTs on the season. Christian Ponder has been similar, although better than last year. The difference makers here for Minnesota is Adrien Peterson, and Percy Harvin. Harvin is not only an explosive special-teams threat, but he has caught 60 balls this season. Adrien Peterson's surgically-repaired knee has allowed him to run healthy again, accounting for 775 yards on the ground. Minnesota has done a good job shutting down suspect offenses, and they should have a shot at the win here. Play on Minnesota.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 4

NFL Betting Picks

Houston Texans -10

Both of these two teams had a bye week last week. The Buffalo Bills are sitting at 3-4 with a 2-2 record on the road. The Houston Texans are 6-1 and 3-1 at home. Houston has enjoyed victories over Miami, Jacksonville, Denver, Tennessee, NY Jets, and Baltimore - with their lone loss coming against Green Bay at home. The Bills went into the bye week losing 3 of their last 4 games. Two weeks ago they hosted the Titans and lost 35-34 from a late touchdown by the Titans. They are just 1-3 ATS as underdogs this year, including being blown out 45-3 in San Francisco as 10 point dogs. The Texans rank 9th in total offense, out gaining the Bills by a little over 20 yards per game, and are 2nd behind the Patriots at 30.9 PPG. The Bills are 12th in that department scoring 24.4 points per game. Defensively is where this one is lopsided, as the Texans rank 3rd in the league in total defense and 6th in points against per game. The Bills are dead last in papg allowing 32.4 (about 2 touchdowns more per game than the Texans), and give up 424 yards against per game (31st in the league). Houston isn't much different than the 49ers, and the Bills lost by 42 in that game. Note that the Bills are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. The Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, and 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 vs AFC opponents. Look for Houston to steam roll the Bills on Sunday.


Broncos / Bengals Over 47

This should be a great opportunity to hit the OVER as the Broncos head to Cincinnati. Denver is 4-3 on the year, while the Bengals are 3-4 and losers of 3 straight. Cincinnati had a bye week this past week to re-group and get ready for Sunday's important meeting with Denver. The Peyton Manning lead Broncos are 3rd in the NFL offensively averaging 405 yards per game, and are scoring 29.1 points per game - good for 4th in the NFL. Cincinnati has an above average offense (although they've been slowed in recent weeks against some good defenses). The Bengals are 17th in the league with 354 yards per game, but are scoring 23.7 points per game - good for 14th in the league. Andy Dalton is ranked 12th in the league as far as QB Rating is concerned completing 64.2% of his passes with 13 TDs and 10 INTs on the season and a 87.7 rating. After a solid performance last week Peyton Manning has moved to 1st int he league with a 109.0 QB rating, as he has completed 68.5% of his passes for 2113 yards, 17 TDs and just 4 INTs. Take note that the OVER is 31-15 in the Broncos last 46 games overall, including going 4-3 this year despite three totals in the 50's. The OVER is also 5-1 in the Broncos last 6 road games, and 6-1 in their last 7 vs AFC opponents. The OVER is also 4-3 for the Bengals this year. The OVER is also 7-3 in the Bengals last 10 home games, 14-5 in their last 19 vs AFC opponents, and 8-3 in their last 11 games following a bye week. The OVER is also 5-1 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. The Bengals had a week off to prepare for the Broncos offense, but it is going to be tough to stop a Peyton Manning lead team. The Broncos have scored 21+ points in all games this season, and Sunday should make it 8 straight. I think Bengals offense will benefit from the time off to regroup and focus on what was working at the start of the season that allowed them to score 99 points over three games from Week 2-4. Take the OVER.

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Chris Elliott
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Chicago vs. Tennessee
Pick: Under
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For the Bears this season, the Over/Under is 4/3 while the team has scored 26.4 PPG and has given up a mere 14.3 PPG for an average total of 40.7 PPG.
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The strength of the offense is with the run game, ranking 9th in the NFL with 124.0 YPG with both RBs Forte and Bush healthy and effective. Look for the Bears to grind down the clock and the weak Titans run defense that ranks 28th in the NFL allowing 139.3 YPG on the ground.
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The Bears defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in PPG and 7th in the NFL in YPG. The squad has 16 INTs tied for 1st in the NFL and have 10 forced fumbles good for 2nd in the NFL and 23 sacks, tied for 3rd in the league!
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For the Titans, the Over/Under is 5/3 while the team has scored 20.3 PPG and have allowed 32.1 PPG for an average total of 52.4 PPG .
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The offense is led by veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck who has been decent in Locker's absence. He has 931 yards passing, 4 TDs and 2 INTs in 6 games. Star RB Chris Johnson has sputtered for most of the season averaging 74.4 rushing yards per game in 8 games this year with a mere 2 TDs. Expect Johnson to struggle against the Bears #1 ranked rushing defense!
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Prolific WR Kenny Britt has stated that he wants the Titans to throw the ball downfield to him more often. I wish Britt good lucking holding on to the ball with Charles Tillman looking like a pro boxer punching out balls from unsuspecting WRs. He has 31 forced fumbles and 8 defensive TDs in his career including 2 defenive TDs this season already!
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The Titans defense has been terrible, ranking 31st in the NFL giving up a massive 421.3 YPG. Look for the Bears to open up an early lead with a heavy dose of the run in the 2nd half. The Titans offense has been poor all season and I don't expect that to change against this top defense. Look for a lop sided low scoring affair. Take the "Under" to win this game.

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Baltimore vs. Cleveland
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To say that the Ravens have owned the Browns in recent years is something of an understatement.  Baltimore has won each of the last nine meetings between these two teams.  Each and every one of those Ravens victories has come by six points or more.  And there’s absolutely no reason to think that this meeting is going to be any different.
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The Ravens are in an ornery mood after getting annihilated by Houston 43-13 in their last game before the bye week.  John Harbaugh had a focused team in practice this week!  And he certainly has a proven track record with extra time to prepare.  The Ravens (-7) beat Houston 29-14 out of the bye last year.  They beat Miami (-5) 26-10 in 2010 off the bye, beat Denver (-4.5) 30-7 off their bye in 2009 and beat these same Browns (-1) 28-10 in 2008.
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While the Ravens have excelled in similar spots in recent years, just about every team in the NFL has struggled in Cleveland’s current role --- their last game before the bye week.  Teams heading into the bye week are 2-14 ATS this year, discounting the games where one pre-bye team faced off against another.  Coming off a rare win against the Chargers, look for the Browns to return to normalcy this week with another home loss by margin.  Take the Ravens.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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By now all loyal PLAYBOOK readers know the deal: play on the Raiders when taking points, and play against them when laying points. Case closed. Sure, we could go on and point out Tampa?s 8-1 ATS dog log in games after scoring 28 or more points, and its 4-1 ATS mark when taking points under head coach Greg Schiano. Not to mention they've outgained all three opponents since their Bye Week in mid-October. Or we could allude to Oakland's despicable 1-14 ATS record when laying points into a losing team. Not to mention the Raiders raunchy 2-6 SU ATS mark at home of late in games after Kansas City clashes. But whats the need? You know the deal. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Baltimore Ravens
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This is a very good spot for Baltimore this week. The last time we saw the Ravens, they got crushed at Houston by 30 points while getting outgained by 244 total yards. That was the third straight game that they have been outgained so going into the bye week, they have not been playing at a high level. The off week could not have come at a better time as they have been able to regroup while stewing over that loss for two weeks. This is a must win for Baltimore as the schedule is demanding the rest of the way.
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Cleveland has just two wins this season but it has been very competitive. Four of the Browns six losses have been by a touchdown or less but they have been fortunate in some regards to keep games that close. They have been outgained in seven of their eight games including last week when they defeated San Diego as Cleveland was outgained by 15 yards and won thanks to a dropped touchdown pass by the Chargers. Cleveland is off next week as it has a late bye this season.
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The Ravens are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season as they managed only 176 total yards against Houston. It was an aberration as the Ravens offense had been playing very well. While the passing game has taken center stage, we should see a successful rushing attack here as Baltimore is averaging 4.7 ypc which is fourth best in the NFL. The Browns meanwhile are allowing 4.4 ypc on defense which is 23rd and their overall defense is ranked 26th in the league.
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Baltimore is known for its strong defense nut that has not been the case this season as age and injuries have caught up. The Ravens have faced some very potent offenses however and this is not one of them. Cleveland is ranked 29th in total offense and 25th in scoring offense and it has been held to 16 points or fewer in five of its eight games including the first meeting against Baltimore. The Ravens have owned this series with wins in nine straight meetings including the first one this season.
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The Ravens only won that game by a touchdown which is actually a good thing as the close win will be a motivator for this game. The road team has covered six straight meetings while Baltimore is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four trips to Cleveland. The Browns are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a win while the Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

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Atlanta Falcons -3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The undefeated Falcons' 7 wins have come by an average of 10.1 points and five of them have come by more than four points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys' 4 losses have come by an average of 10.8 points and three of them have come by at least five points. Recent history suggests you better have a darn good reason for backing Dallas, and I don't have one. It is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games. The Falcons are 5-2 ATS this season and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 versus teams with a losing record. When it comes down to Tony Romo or Matt Ryan, I'm getting behind Ryan, especially at home where he is 29-4 as a starter. Tony Romo has thrown for a lot of yards (2,073) but has been haunted by interceptions. He has been picked off 13 times this season while throwing just nine touchdown passes. Ryan has been more trustworthy. He has completed 68.7 percent of his throws for 2,018 yards with 17 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Also, Ryan’s 103.0 passer rating in third-best in the league while Romo’s quarterback rating of 78.8 is way down the list. They call him Matty Ice for a reason. What do they call Romo? Tony So-So? The favorite has covered the number in four of the past five meetings, and I expect this trend to continue. Lay the points.

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Denver Broncos -3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It took some time for Peyton Manning and company to get used to the new scheme, but now it appears they are hitting on all cylinders. Manning led the Broncos back from a 24-0 halftime deficit on ESPN’s Monday Night Football in Week 7 to a 35-24 victory at San Diego. Then, following a bye week, the Broncos put together their most complete performance of the season with a 34-14 home win over the New Orleans Saints last Sunday.
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Manning has thrown for over 300 yards and three touchdowns while completing at least 70 percent of his passes in four straight games to set a new NFL record. Denver ranks 4th in the league in passing offense at 292.9 yards per game through the air. Manning has a great chance of extending that record against a Cincinnati team that ranks 21st in the league in total defense at 357.1 yards per game allowed.
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The four-time MVP has simply owned the Bengals throughout his career. He has won all seven of his starts against Cincinnati while throwing 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He’ll be up against a Bengals team that is reeling after a 3-1 start.
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Cincinnati has gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall. It has lost to at home to Miami and Pittsburgh, and on the road to Cleveland by a final of 24-34. Its only three wins this season have come against Cleveland, Jacksonville and Washington, which are three teams with a combined 6-17 record.
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The Broncos are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game. They are winning in this spot by an average of 7.7 points per game. Denver is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight vs. a team with a losing record. The Bengals are 1-10-2 against the spread in their last 13 vs. AFC foes. Cincinnati is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Broncos Sunday.

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Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Bears vs. Tennessee Titans    
Play: Tennessee TitansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bears are 0-11 ATS since 1989 on the road when they are off a game in which they allowed at least 100 more yards than their season-to-date average as a favorite. The Titans are off a home favored loss to division rival Colts and will look to give the Bears a tough game here knowing that road favorites like the Bears are just 21-56 ats off 4 or more game winning streak if they lost their prior road game before the win streak. The Titans have covered 8 straight as a dog of 5 or less vs the NFC. Look for a close game with the Titans Getting the cover.

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Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars    
Play: Detroit LionsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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At 1-6, Jacksonville is just about the worst team in the NFL. They have posted a total of 20 points in 3 home games this season. They are ranked last in points, passing yards, and total yards. All that is with RB, Maurice Jones-Drew and a healthy Blaine Gabbert (5-16 as a starter). Well, Jones-Drew is out, and Gabbert is dealing with an issue with his non-throwing arm. MJD accounts for 41% of the team's offense. On top of all that, the Jags are still without LB Smith and most likely going to miss CB Cox. Matthew Stafford needs 52 YP to his 10,000. If he gets there Sunday, he will be the 2nd fastest in NFL to reach the landmark. The QB has 2108 YP this season, coming off his best performance yet this year, throwing for 352 yards and 3 TDs. The Lions covered their L3(2 on the road) against such notables as the Eagles, Bears, and Seahawks. Jacksonville is already looking to next season. Play Detroit here.

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Steve JanusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Seahawks -4
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The Seahawks lost at Detroit last week 24-28. It was Seattle’s second straight loss overall and their fourth loss in five road games this season. There’s no denying that this team plays their best football at home. Dallas, Green Bay and New England have all left Seattle with a loss, as the Seahawks are a perfect 3-0 at home this year. CenturyLink Field is without question one of the toughest places in the NFL to play, which is why you see this line bumped up to 5 and not sitting on a more common number like 3 or 3.5. Seattle is 9-2 ATSin home games over the last 2 seasons and are 12-3 ATS in home games vs NFC opponents over the last 3 seasons.
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Seattle features a dominant defense that is one of the toughest in the NFL to score on. The 28 points they allowed to Detroit last week was the most they have given up in a single game all season. In six of their eight games they have held their opponents to 20 points or less. The defense typically plays even better when they are at home, as they feed off the energy of one of the loudest group of fans in the league. Seattle held the Cowboys to just 7 points, Green Bay to 12 and New England to only 23.
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You have to like their chances of shutting down a pretty average Minnesota offense. The only two players you really have to worry about stopping if you are Seattle is running back Adrian Peterson and wide out Percy Harvin. The Seahawks feature a run a defense that ranks 5th in the NFL, allowing just 84.9 ypg, but are only giving up 73 ypg on the ground at home. If Seattle can keep Peterson in check, it’s going to be extremely hard for Minnesota’s offense to put together long drives. Minnesota is just 10-22 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game since 1992.

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Carlo CampanellaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks    
Play: Seattle SeahawksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota (5-3) has lost 2 of their last 3 games, including a 36-17 loss to Tampa Bay last Thursday Night. With each passing game, the Vikings look more one-dimensional on offense, with RB Peterson carrying more of the load, and QB Ponder having become turnover-prone. On Sunday, they head to Seattle (4-4), knowing the Seahawks are 3-0 SU & ATS at home this year, beating solid opponents like Green Bay, Dallas, and the Patriots. Bad match-up for Vikes, as this Seattle defense is allowing only 16 points per game, while holding foes to 85 yards rushing and 3.7 yards per carry this season. Expect Seahawk defense to dominate the line of scrimmage on their home turf and force Vikings to throw the ball.

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Timothy BlackFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks    
Play: Seattle SeahawksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Too big of a number for me to have a serious play on this but Seattle is too good at home to lose this game. The Seahawks are a perfect 3-0 on their home turf this year and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. Seattle has 2 straight losses on the road so coming back home they are in great position to stop the slide. The Vikings are just 1-2 on the road this season and after a great start they have now lost 2 of their last 3 games.

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