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NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday 10/30

NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday 10/30

WASHINGTON (20 - 46) at CLEVELAND (21 - 45) - 10/30/2012, 7:05 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-3 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


BOSTON (50 - 36) at MIAMI (62 - 27) - 10/30/2012, 8:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 87-121 ATS (-46.1 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 12-8 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 10-10 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


DALLAS (36 - 34) at LA LAKERS (46 - 32) - 10/30/2012, 10:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 264-209 ATS (+34.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 31-45 ATS (-18.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-5 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 6-5 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday 10/30

Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Washington

Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Miami is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Boston

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games
LA Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing at home against Dallas

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Re: NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday 10/30

NBA: Streaks, Trends, Notes

Washington at Cleveland

The NBA tips off its 2012-13 campaign with a tripleheader on Tuesday. High-lighting opening night, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat will raise their title banner at home before running the hardwood against Boston Celtics. These two heated rivals faced each other in the Eastern Conference Finals last year a series obviously won by Heat but C's had the upper hand at the betting window cashing 4-of-7 tickets giving Boston backers an 8-3 ATS edge in eleven encounters last season. Note: The past thirteen NBA Champions have posted a 10-3 SU record opening up the following season but are just 6-7 against-the-oddsmaker. In other action, Dallas Mavericks visit Los Angeles Lakers where Dwight Howard, Steve Nash will make their much anticipated debuts and the least anticipated of the three opening games features the Wall-less Washington Wizards taking on Cavaliers in Cleveland.

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Inside the Paint - Tuesday
By Chris David

The 2012-13 NBA regular season tips off Tuesday and all eyes will be on the defending champion Miami Heat. In last year’s shortened season, LeBron James finally silenced the critics and captured his first title and the second for the Heat franchise. To no surprise, Miami is expected to repeat by most pundits and the oddsmakers. has the Heat listed as the first choice (-200) to win the Eastern Conference and a close second choice (+225) to win the NBA Finals, behind the Los Angeles Lakers (+200).

The quest for the repeat starts in South Florida as Miami hosts Boston from American Airlines Arena. During their championship run last season, the Heat finished off the Celtics in seven games of the Eastern Conference Finals after trailing in the series, 3-2.
Including the postseason, Miami and Boston squared off 10 times in last year’s lockout-shortened season. The Celtics won all of three of the regular season affairs and wound up cashing tickets for gamblers in seven of the contests. In South Florida, Boston was 2-3 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.

In those games, Miami was listed as a favorite anywhere from seven to eight points. For tonight’s matchup, the Heat are laying just six points at most betting shops.

So what’s changed from last season?

“Both these clubs added new pieces in the offseason, as the Heat signed Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis to economical deals to help boost bench scoring. The Celtics filled the Allen void by acquiring Jason Terry from the Mavericks, while Jeff Green returns to the lineup after missing last season due to heart surgery. Boston also acquired veterans Courtney Lee and Darko Milicic,” answered handicapper Kevin Rogers.

If you consider the offseason moves a wash for both teams, then most would believe the line to be higher or should we expect a letdown for Miami in its opener? If you look at the below history, you can see it’s very possible that a lackluster effort will occur.

Opening Game History for Defending Champions (2002-2011)
Year     Defending Champion     First Opponent     Score     SU Result     ATS Result
2012     Miami Heat     Boston     -     -     -
2011     Dallas Mavericks (+4.5)     Miami     94-105     LOSS     LOSS
2010     L.A. Lakers (-6.5)     Houston     112-110     WIN     LOSS
2009     L.A. Lakers (-11.5)     L.A. Clippers     99-92     WIN     LOSS
2008     Boston Celtics (-6)     Cleveland     90-85     WIN     LOSS
2007     San Antonio Spurs (-13)     Portland     106-97     WIN     LOSS
2006     Miami Heat (-4.5)     Chicago     66-108     LOSS     LOSS
2005     San Antonio Spurs (-7.5)     Denver     102-91     WIN     WIN
2004     Detroit Pistons (-6)     Houston     87-79     WIN     WIN
2003     San Antonio Spurs (-6)     Phoenix     83-82     WIN     LOSS
2002     Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5)     Portland     98-87     WIN     LOSS

In the last 10 years, the defending champion has gone 8-2 in the first game of the next season. For our purposes, the champs have looked like chumps and they’ve produced a 2-8 record versus the number.

If there is a team that should be aware of this, it’s Miami. The Heat humbled the Mavericks 105-94 last season on Christmas. And if you go back six years, most folks in Miami are too embarrassed to talk about the 42-point loss that Chicago posted on the Heat as they raised the banners after their first

championship. The total for this matchup opened at 184½ and has risen to 185 at most outfits. The ‘over’ went 5-2 in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals and the highest ‘over/under’ in that series was 180.

Tip-off is slated for 8:05 p.m. ET and TNT will provide national coverage of this matchup.

Washington at Cleveland

The Cavaliers opened as 5½-point home favorites over the banged-up Wizards and the line seems fair considering the injuries to the visitors. Washington wasn’t a deep team to begin with and it won’t have starters John Wall (knee) or Nene Hilario (foot) available for the opener. Expect the club to lean on veterans Jordan Crawford and Trevor Ariza for scoring. Cleveland doesn’t have a lot of depth either, but it should be able to get what it wants on offense with point guard Kyrie Irving facing a secondary backcourt. Whether or not his teammates make shots is anybody’s guess. These teams met three times last season and Washington won two of three but Cleveland managed to produce a 2-1 ATS mark. The ‘under’ cashed in all three affairs and that was with totals between 195 and 201. The total for Tuesday opened at 191 and dropped immediately to 190, which appears to be the right move on paper.

Dallas at L.A. Lakers

The second game of the TNT double-header will feature a nice rivalry matchup between the Lakers and Mavericks from the Staples Center. Los Angeles opened as an 8½-point favorite even though All-Star guard Kobe Bryant (foot) is ‘questionable.’ While that injury is certainly important, the Mavericks definitely won’t have Dirk Nowitzki (knee) in the lineup and newcomer Chris Kaman (calf) is ‘questionable.’ The question for gamblers is how quickly will the new faces for each club develop? The Lakers added Dwight Howard and Steve Nash to their starting five, plus they picked up key reserves that can shoot from the outside in Antawn Jamison and Jodie Meeks. The chemistry issue could be tougher for Dallas, who lost Jason Kidd and Jason Terry in the offseason. Replacing those veterans will be Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo. The Mavs also added Elton Brand and Eddy Curry, which provides size to the frontcourt. The Lakers won all four meetings (3-1 ATS) against the Mavericks last season but three of the outcomes were decided by five points or less and two went into overtime. The ‘over’ went 3-1 during this span and tonight’s number is listed at 187½.

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NBA Opening Night: What Bettors Need to Know

Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers (-5, 188.5)

A pair of young teams looking to improve upon last year's disappointing campaigns clash to open the season, but only one will have its star point guard running the show when the Washington Wizards travel to Cleveland to start a new campaign against the Cavaliers. The teams combined for just 41 wins in the shortened 2011-12 season but are optimistic about the future with talented young point guards at the helm.

The Wizards, however, will be without 2010 No. 1 pick John Wall, who is expected to miss the first month of the season with a stress injury in his left knee, and forwards Nene (plantar fasciitis) and Kevin Seraphin (strained right calf) also will miss the opener . Kyrie Irving, the 2011 top pick, is expected to start for Cleveland despite being listed day-to-day after having his four wisdom teeth removed last week. Washington won two of three meetings last season, including a 96-85 win in the only game in Cleveland.

LINE: Cleveland opened as high as 5.5 and has since been bet down. The total has moved from 190 to 188.5.

ABOUT THE WIZARDS (2011-12: 20-46, 29-36-1 ATS): Washington closed last season on a six-game winning streak but will have a hard time replacing Wall, who averaged a team-high 16.3 points and 8.0 assists last year. A.J. Price and Jannero Pargo will fill in at the point, and the Wizards will lean on rookie Bradley Beal, the No. 3 overall pick out of Florida, to pick up some of the scoring slack. New additions Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor will start in the frontcourt with second-year forward Trevor Booker.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (2011-12: 21-45, 31-35-0 ATS): The Cavaliers have gone 40-108 since LeBron James took his talents to South Beach, but Irving represents a brighter future. The reigning Rookie of the Year averaged 18.5 points, 5.4 assists and 3.7 rebounds last season. After adding Irving and power forward Tristan Thompson two years ago, the Cavs continued rebuilding through the draft by picking shooting guard Dion Waiters and center Tyler Zeller this year. They also have veteran center Anderson Varejao back after missing the final 41 games last season with a fractured wrist, and they added forward C.J. Miles to provide a spark off the bench.


* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Cleveland.
* Underdog is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.


1. Washington SG Jordan Crawford scored 49 points in two games against the Cavaliers last season.

2. The average age of Cleveland's opening night roster is 24.9 years, and the starting five averages 23.7 years.

3. Waiters has earned a spot in the starting lineup for Cleveland, marking his first start since high school. Waiters came off the bench for two years at Syracuse.

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (-6.5, 186.5)

LeBron James and the host Miami Heat will get to watch their NBA Championship banner be raised to the rafters on opening night while the team on the other side tries not to focus on what went wrong in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Boston Celtics, who held a 3-2 lead on the Heat in that series before crumbling in Games 6 and 7, will get a chance for immediate revenge on Tuesday night.

The Celtics reloaded over the summer, re-signing forward Kevin Garnett and bringing in backcourt veterans like Jason Terry, Leandro Barbosa and Courtney Lee to fortify the bench. Miami did not rest on its laurels either, adding to its own team and possibly weakening Boston by signing away guard Ray Allen. While Allen is a nice piece to the puzzle, the Heat will go as far as James will take them. The reigning MVP won a gold medal with Team USA over the summer and told reporters recently that he wants to be the best player of all-time.

Over the past 10 seasons, the defending NBA champions are 7-3 SU but only 2-8 ATS in the season opener the following season. Even more surprising is the fact that reigning NBA champs have failed to cover on opening night in each of the past six seasons. The Mavericks, Lakers (twice), Celtics, Spurs and Heat have all fell victims to the ATS hangover.

LINE: Miami opened as high as -8 in Las Vegas and has since been bet down to -6.5. The total has climbed from 184.5 to 186.5.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (2011-12: 39-27, 34-30-2 ATS): That Boston came within a game of making the finals last spring was somewhat of a shock. Allen and fellow No. 2 guard Avery Bradley were out or limited throughout the playoffs and Jeff Green missed the entire season. The Celtics are healthy at the moment and will use a deep rotation to keep players like Garnett, forward Paul Pierce and Green from wearing down. Point guard Rajon Rondo, who averaged 20.9 points and 11.3 assists in the seven-game series against Miami last spring, has drawn praise from his teammates and coaches and appears ready to step up as the leader of the team.

ABOUT THE HEAT (2011-12: 46-20, 32-34-0 ATS): Any questions about whether or not James was able to handle pressure situations were answered against the Celtics in Game 6 last spring. On the road and with his team against the wall, James crushed Boston’s celebration plans by putting up 45 points on 19-of-26 shooting and adding 15 rebounds. He went on to average a double-double in the finals and earn his first ring. Still only 28 years old, James will be aiming for his fourth MVP award in five seasons. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who both sat out the Olympics with injuries, played the preseason and are ready to go on Tuesday.


* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings in Miami.
* Celtics are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.


1. Miami Heat coach Eric Spoelstra is making his offense more fluid and doing away with rigid positions. James will likely handle the bulk of the ball handling.

2. Boston took three of four from the Heat in the 2011-12 regular season, including a 115-107 victory in Miami in which Rondo piled up 18 points and 15 assists. That snapped a five-game losing streak in Miami.

3. James twisted his right ankle and took a kick to the face in Friday’s final preseason game but expects to play against the Celtics.

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers (-9, 186)

Dallas star Dirk Nowitzki won’t play and Los Angeles star Kobe Bryant is doubtful when the visiting Mavericks and the retooled Lakers open the season on Tuesday. Nowitzki had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee on Oct. 19 and will likely miss the first month of the season. Bryant injured his right foot in a preseason game on Oct. 21 and hasn’t practiced since. Point guard Steve Nash and center Dwight Howard both make their Los Angeles debuts.

The Lakers acquired Nash from the Phoenix Suns and Howard from the Orlando Magic after their second straight second-round playoff exit. Pairing the two stars with Bryant and forward Pau Gasol will give the Lakers a four-star quartet hard to defend. Dallas is also recharging after winning the 2011 NBA title. The injured Nowitzki and veteran forward Shawn Marion are the only two remaining players from the title-winning squad.

LINE: Los Angeles opened as high as -10 and has since been bet down to -8.5. The total has moved from 187.5 to 186.

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (2011-12: 36-30, 32-34-0 ATS): Marion will be the only familiar face in the starting lineup of the revamped squad. The other scheduled starters are forward Elton Brand and recently acquired center Eddy Curry in the frontcourt and O.J. Mayo and Darren Collison in the backcourt. “This is what we got. That’s the way it is,” Marion said. “We can’t harp on it all day.” Center Chris Kaman (calf) will miss the game and his recent injury necessitated the signing of Curry.

ABOUT THE LAKERS (2011-12: 41-25, 28-38-0 ATS): Bryant didn’t participate in Monday’s practice and afterwards, the team termed his possible availability as a game-time decision. Bryant is noted for playing through pain but even some of his teammates doubt he will be able to play. “I know he’s a little down right now,” Howard said. “He seems down because he can’t get out there and practice with us.” Offseason acquisition Jodie Meeks is expected to start if Bryant can’t go.


* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Los Angeles.
* Road team is 15-7-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings.


1. Los Angeles won all four games against the Mavericks last season and 14 of the last 17 regular-season meetings. However, Dallas swept the Lakers in the second round of the 2011 playoffs.

2. The Lakers went 0-8 in the preseason and five of the losses were by double digits.

3. The Mavericks waived troubled guard Delonte West on Monday. West was suspended twice this month for detrimental conduct.

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Dallas at Los Angeles Preview

No team has greater expectations for this coming season than the Los Angeles Lakers. Managing those expectations while performing at an elite level could be a lot harder than it looks on paper. The Lakers will have three new players that will play significant time when they open the regular season at home against the Dallas Mavericks with Dwight Howard, Steve Nash, and Antawn Jamison all expected to play important roles, and it could take some time before this group develops the type of chemistry needed to roll through sports betting opponents as strong as the Dallas Mavericks.

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers
Tuesday October 30, 2012 – 10:30 PM ET
Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
NBA Betting Line: Los Angeles Lakers – 4.5

The Mavericks are another team undergoing significant change heading in to this season, although not necessarily in as positive a way as the Lakers. Dallas will be without Jason Terry and Jason Kidd after both left via free agency in the offseason, and it will be interesting to see how a new-look backcourt responds without those proven veterans.

Dallas Mavericks

The combination of Darren Collison and OJ Mayo has worked for the Mavericks this preseason, and it will be interesting to see how those two are worked in a rotation along with veteran Vince Carter. Dallas will certainly benefit from all three being available and ready to contribute, and has to like its depth in the backcourt after struggling with Kidd and Terry at both ends of the floor last season. The infusion of youth will also make things easier on veteran Dirk Nowitzki, who was relied on far too heavily last season. Nowitzki can still play at the level that made him the MVP during the Mavericks’ championship run two years ago, only not on an every-game basis.

Los Angeles Lakers

Kobe Bryant certainly understands the idea of being relied on too heavily, which is why he was so happy to see Howard, Nash, and Jamison arrive in the offseason. Los Angeles now has a point guard that can lead the offense and be the facilitator that gets the ball to Bryant for open looks in Nash, as well as the big man that can help pound the boards along with Pau Gasol. The Lakers will need Jamison’s offensive flare off the bench behind Metta World Peace, and it will be interesting to see how those two split minutes. Kobe is still Kobe and will continue to get his touches, only this season he doesn’t always have to be the focal point of the offense at all times.

Outlook & Pick

With expectations as high as every in Los Angeles, it could be a rough start for the Lakers in terms of covering the online betting numbers. It will undoubtedly take some time before the offense is firing on all cylinders, and a team as talented as the Mavericks is definitely capable of holding its own in a game like this, even if they don’t win outright. Los Angeles is undoubtedly the favorite in the Western conference this season, but it may take some time to get up to speed early on.

Pick: Dallas Mavericks

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