Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 28

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Detroit -2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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First off, even though I am a season ticket holder I am no Lions homer. One of our best bets this season was on the Titans over the Lions, BEFORE Detroit went into the shitter. The Lions played HORRIBLE versus the Chicago Bears and still could have won the game outright. Calvin Johnson was non-existent in the loss, but the the Lions still managed to put up 340 yards of offense. Stafford and Johnson will have a big game in front of the home town crowd. Ford Field is a VERY LOUD place to play in and will be a factor in keeping the Seahawks offense out of sync. Lions win this one by at least a TD.

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
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Titans are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs the Colts. Indy clearly a different team on the road as they have been blitzed by the Jets (35-9)and then the Bears back in early September (41-21). RB Chris Johnson had a huge game last week and looks to be finally breaking out. Maybe the arrival of veteran QB Hasselbeck in the backfield with him is a help. So we have CJ off a huge game, and here at home he gets to face a Colts run defense that is giving up 140 yards on the ground a game. Sounds like a recipe to a winner this afternoon.

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Larry Ness

Seattle vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit

The Lions ended a playoff drought which had gone back to 1999 when they went 10-6 last year (lost at New Orleans in the wild card round). However, history says a second straight trip to the postseason is highly unlikely for Detroit, which h sits at 2-4 through Week 7. Only 18 of the 208 teams that started the season with the same record have made the playoffs (since 1990), most recently accomplished by Tim Tebow-led Denver last season. And we KNOW this, Matthew Stafford is no Tim Tebow.
Afrter all, in a 2011 season in which both Brees and Brady broke Dan Marino's single-season passing yards record (and Rodgers was the league’s MVP by setting a single-season QB rating mark of 122.5 with 4,643 yards plus 45 TDs against only six INTs), Stafford ‘quietly’ threw for 5,038 yards with 41 TDs and a modest 16 INTs. Stafford joined Dan Marino and Drew Brees as the only players to pass for more than 5,000 yards plus throw 40 TDs in the same season. Tebow couldn’t have a season like that, if he played against Pop Warner teams but then again, all Tebow does is win. All right, enough of the Tebow bashing. As Bill Parcells famously says, “you are what your record says you are.” For Detroit, that’s 2-4. Stafford is playing nowhere NEAR like he did in 2011, with just five TD passes after six games (had 41 last year!). The running game is non-existent, averaging 99.3 YPG on 4.1 YPC and last Monday night at Chicago, the Lions suffered three giveaways inside the 20. That gives Detroit an NFL-worst five red-zone turnovers, after having just THREE all of last season. Here’s a stat to make Detroit fans shudder. Stafford is the only starting NFL quarterback without a first-half TD pass in 2012. He is also tied for the most first-half interceptions with five.

As for Seattle, the Seahawks are 4-3, a record which includes wins over Dallas, Green Bay and New England. Those wins have come at home though, as the Seahawks are 1-3 SU on the road, winning only at ‘imploding’ Carolina (more on that in a bit). The Seahawks have played excellent defense in 2012 but the team is being held back by its offense. Rookie QB Russell Wilson completes 59.4% with eight TDs and seven INTs (79.5 QB rating). The Seahawks are averaging 161.9 YPG through the air, a mark better than only Jacksonville. The team averages 293.6 YPG overall (ranks 30th), while scoring 16.6 PPG, a figure which ranks 31st. I mentioned Detroit’s red zone woes, so let’s look at Seattle’s trips inside the 20-yard line. Despite coming away with points on 16 of their 18 trips to the red zone, Seattle has scored a TD only a third of the time, the NFC's worst success rate. Just two of Wilson's TD passes have come on the road (against seven INTs) and NINE of Seattle's total of 11 giveaways in 2012 have come in the team's four road games. That’s a MAJOR reason why the team is 1-3 away from home this season and just 6-15 on the road since Carroll took over in 2010 (including a postseason loss at Chicago). Note that Seattle has lost those 15 road games by an average margin of 13.7 PPG and that not a SINGLE loss has come by less than three points. It’s been a tough start to the 2012 season for the lions but I look for them to win (and cover) in this one.

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Teddy Covers

Carolina vs. Chicago
Pick: Carolina

Carolina is 1-5 this year, coming off the heels of a 6-10 campaign last season.  But the Panthers certainly aren’t a case of total ineptitude – they’re in almost every game right through the final gun.  Rather, the Panthers problem in the Ron Rivera/Cam Newton era has been the inability to win tight games.  They’re 0-4 this year in games decided by a TD or less, much like last year when the Panthers went 1-5 in close games.

That record includes a tight, spread covering five point loss right here at Soldier Field against the Bears; a game in which the Panthers offense rolled up more than 500 yards of offense, outgaining the Bears by a full 225 yards!  Match Carolina up against a +7.5 pointspread and we’re talking about a team that is 16-6 ATS in the first 22 games of the Newton/Rivera era.  Quite simply, this pointspread is a notch or two too high.

The Bears are not a strong offensive team right now.  Their point totals have been padded by five defensive scores in their last four games. After scoring on their opening drive against Detroit on Monday Night, they were held out of the end zone for the next 56 minutes.  Jay Cutler’s got bad ribs; Brandon Marshall has more receptions than the rest of the WR’s on the roster combined and Matt Forte has just one TD this year.  And Chicago is in a very flat spot here; on a short week off a national TV divisional win, facing a 1-5 foe that they beat last year.  That’s not the recipe for ATS success as a favorite of more than a touchdown!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 28

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Green Bay Packers -14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Green Bay Packers should have no problem covering this two-touchdown spread against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars simply won't be able to keep pace on the scoreboard against this high-powered Green Bay attack that it hitting on all cylinders over the last few weeks. The Packers have scored an average of 36.0 points in road wins over the Texans and Rams the last two weeks, who both features two of the top defenses in the league. The Jaguars are giving up 27.3 points/game while ranking 28th in total defense at 411.8 yards/game allowed. The Packers should have no problem getting 36-plus against this defense. However, Jacksonville's biggest problem is its stagnant offense. The Jaguars are only averaging 14.7 points while ranking 32nd in the league in total offense at 235.8 yards/game. Now, their offense is going to be without its best player in Maurice Jones-Drew, who is out with a foot injury. Green Bay is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a 2 game road trip over the last 3 seasons. The Jaguars are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. The Packers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games. Take Green Bay and lay the points.

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Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears    
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The Panthers have been beaten and battered by opponents and the media. Now Cam Newton and the Panthers go up against the Bears who are everyone's darling in the NFC right now. There is a ton of value on the Panthers in this spot as the oddsmakers know everyone will now be on the Bears. I'm perfect betting on or against the Panthers this year and I think this will continue with today's free play. Look for this to be a low scoring game. Ron Rivera, the head coach from Carolina also may have an advantage as he was the defensive coordinator for 3 years and knows their system. Cutler is behind an offensive line that you never know when they may have a poor game. So I expect the Panthers to be in this game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 28

Dave Cokin

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Oakland Raiders

Both teams are terrible, but it looks like the Chiefs are even worse than Oakland at this point. Brady Quinn is starting at QB and is favored? Okay. I'll try my luck with the Raiders.

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Key injuries to Jacksonville RB Jones-Drew and QB Gabbert have this game off the board at press time but expect the Packers to be a huge favorite of 14 points or so. They return home following a 3 game road trip that saw them win the last 2 (at Houston and St Louis) as the offense regained its rhythm. Bad teams find ways to lose games they should win and such was the case last week when Jacksonville blew a late lead at Oakland. Off of their Bye the Jaguars put a lot of effort into that game but came up empty. The Packers need to make up ground in the very contentious NFC North and the 1-5 Jaguars are not a team capable of slowing down the Green Bay offense or trading points. The Jags rank last in total offense and #28 in total defense. Green Bay's defense is much improved over last season (#14) and the offense has been the NFL's best at avoiding turnovers (0.9 per game).

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Tennessee Titans over Indianapolis Colts
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After weathering a brutal schedule the first few weeks of the season the Titans are in reasonable shape at 3-4 after a miracle comeback last week in Buffalo. Believe it or not but the winner of this game will be a viable player in the AFC wild card picture as the schedules ahead for both squads are favorable. The Titans own the worst point differential in the NFL but the offense is starting to click with Chris Johnson breaking out last week and Matt Hasselbeck providing good leadership. With back-to-back wins the Titans can even their record as the strong start for the Colts has featured all three wins at home and two lopsided road losses. Indianapolis has covered in just four of the last 12 meetings in this division series and this could be a challenging spot for Indianapolis.

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Dolphins / Jets Under 38.5
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I took the Under on the game between these two teams in Miami and we only lost it because the game went to overtime. On a similar matchup and with the weather being clearly worse today (rainy and windy day), I believe we have once have the ingredients for a very low scoring game in here. Mark Sanchez is coming from a decent game in New England last week, but he keeps being an overall poor quarterback with the clear inability of having a high percentage of completions. Now against a good Dolphins defense, who is coming from a bye week, I expect Sanchez to heavily struggle today against a team that has been quite good in stopping the opposing quarterbacks this season. And if Miami has been good against the pass, they are the best team in the league in stopping the run with just 3.3 rushing yards allowed per carry, so I really expect the Jets offense to have any kind of decent production today against a very good overall defensive team, who is coming from a bye week.
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The problem with Miami is that their offense isn't looking good neither. Ryan Tannehill has been having some normal issues for a rookie quarterback and in a rainy and windy day, I don't expect him to have a good game against a team that even though they lost their best secondary player in Darrelle Revis, they are still a top 10 team against the pass. On the other hand, Daniel Thomas is returning to the field today, but Miami's running game has been regressing big time over the last few weeks after a very good start of the season. I know the Jets doesn't have a good run defense, but Miami is now just #24 on running game efficiency with 3.8 rushing yards per carry, so I don't expect the Dolphins to have a huge game on the running game today.
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I believe this game will easily turn into a very physical divisional game, with both teams fighting on the field for the win. I believe both teams will use their running game a lot today, while both defenses will outplay both struggling offenses, therefore I expect this game to quickly turn into a low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 28

RICH SPORTS

Cleveland + 3

The Chargers have been a turn over machine of late and I can only expect that to continue today as the weather may be wet and cold. Surprisingly the Browns are averaging more passing yards than the Chargers this year. The Chargers are 0 – 4 ATS in their last 4 October games. The Browns are 7 – 0 ATS the game after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 28

Jeff Scott Sports
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4 UNIT PLAYS
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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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PHILADELPHIA -3 over Atlanta: This is a really good spot for them to get back on track.  I feel the change on defense will energize this group a bit. Philly hasn’t been too bad defensively but they have blown some 4th quarter leads and that is the main reason for the change. Atlanta can’t run the ball (28th) and that should allow this very talented Eagle secondary to clamp down on a very good Atlanta passing game. Really the Falcons havn’t faced a good defense this year and I expect them to have a tough time moving the ball on this Eagles defense that has had a week to get used to the schemes that Todd Bowles will employ. Another advantage there is that the Eagles knowq what they will run, but Atlanta has no clue what’s coming. On offense the Eagles should be able to move the ball and I feel that after the Bye they will start to cut down on their mistakes. The Atlanta defense has been poor vs the run (143 ypg, 5.2 ypc) and that should allow Vick and McCoy do some damage, which will then open up the throwing lanes for this talent WR corps to get some big plays downfield. Andy Reid has worked some magic after a Bye and I feel he will do so again hrere. Atlanta loses first game of the year in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any home favorite if both teams are off a Bye week. Teams in this spot are 15-3 ATS since 2001 and have outscored their opponents by 13 ppg. 
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New York Giants -2 over DALLAS: The Cowboys are not really playing good ball these days and I feel the Giants can take advantage. Dallas needs their running game to take the pressure off of Romo, but they will be missing a key part of their run game as Demarco Murray will not be available for this one. That will allow a solid Giants pass rush to harass Romo into some mistakes. The Dallas defense has been solid this year, but they have had problems with Manning at home, as Eli has thrown for 354 ypg and 8 TD's in his last 3 trips here. The Giants lost game vs Dallas this year, but they were very thin in the secondary in that game and are a bit healthier for this one. Look for the Giants to get a measure of revenge with a big win in Big D.
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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Philadelphia/ Atlanta Under 43: This game should be mess with a hurricane just off the coast. Lots of wind and rain and that should keep the scoring down. Also keeping the scoring is the fact that there is two pretty good defenses on the field. The Atlanta defense is 22 overall but they allow just 18.8 ppg, which is 6th in the league. The Falcons struggle vs the run (28th) and with high winds and a turnover prone QB you can bet that Reid will look run the ball at that soft run defense of the Falcons and that will eat plenty of clock. The Falcons on offense need to throw the ball, because they can't run the ball (29th in the league), but in the conditions that are expected Matt Ryan will have a problem connecting for some big plays.  Atlanta will have to try and run the ball and that will also chew up some clock. This game will struggle to hit the mid 30's.
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PITTSBURGH -4 over Washington: The Steelers played very good defense vs the the Cincinnati and I feel they can do it again in this one. There could be potential for bad weather in this game with high winds and that could very well slow down the Washington pass game.  The Skins are the top rushing team in the league, but they are about to face the 9th ranked rushing defense of the Steelers so that run game should struggle as well. The Steelers also rank 2nd vs the pass so this Washington offense could be in for a long day. On the other side the Pittsburgh offense has been decent this year but the do struggle to run the ball (26th). They will get back Mendenhall for this one and that will help. Once the running game gets going then Big Ben should have some easy throws vs the worst ranked pass defense in the league. The Pittsburgh defense will will not allow Washington to put enough points on the board to keep this one close.   
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Detroit/ Seattle Under 42.5:  This Detroit offense can be explosive, but this year something seems off. In the last 5 weeks the Lions have scored less than 20 points 3 times, while overall they are averaging just 22.2 ppg, which is a full TD less than they averaged last year. Now they take on a Seattle defense that is 5th in the league (287.3 ypg) overall and 3rd in scoring (15.1 ppg). This defense has played very tough this year and I feel this inconsistent Lions offense will have problems moving the ball on them. As good as the Seattle defense has been, the offense has been bad. Seattle is 31st in total offense, passing and scoring and those ranking may not get that much better as the Lions are ranked 8th in total defense. The Lions do struggle a little vs the run and that is a strength of the Seattle offense as they are 8th in the league in running the ball. This should be a low scoring tight ball as both defenses are playing better than the offenses right now.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 28

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Washington vs. Pittsburgh
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There has been a different feel to Washington's games since RG3 appeared on the scene.  That's also been reflected in the "totals" efforts of the Redskins, who are now "over" 9-5 in their last 14 games, a trend that surfaced midway through last season, while Griffin was still at Baylor.  Washington has been held under 23 points just once this season, and that was vs. the Falcons when Griffin was KO'd for part of the game.  Expect more fireworks this afternoon in Pittsburgh vs. a Steelers defense that has been battling through injury problems all season.  And speaking of injuries, the Skins "D" is down several starters itself, and looks vulnerable vs. a Pittsburgh "O" that rediscovered its ground game (167 YR) last week vs. the Bengals.  This affair figures to be a lively one at Heinz Field and clear the modest "total" of 44 in the process.  Play Redskins-Steeelers "Over"

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Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
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The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game. The Falcons are 6-0 for some very good reasons and the Eagles are a 3-3 team, that has played like a 1-5 team to date. They have fired DC in the BYR week and honestly, that is never a good thing for team chemistry despite reports that the players have stopped playing for Castille. The dominant reason the Eagles lost last week in shocking fashion to the Lions with a 10-point fourth quarter lead is the not the complete blame of the defensive unit. I point to the lack of offensive execution that could have, should, have, would have, made this a 17 point Eagles lead with no chance for the Lions to come back. Atlanta was caught complacent in their last game against Oakland and gave up a ton of offensive yards. The Eagles under Reid are a perfect 13-0, but let?s not forget that the Falcons are coming off their BYE as well. Having two weeks to prepare for a largely inconsistent Eagles offense certainly favors the Falcons in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-18 ATS for 70% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. Matt Ryan and his teammates will get the job done no matter what Hurricane Sandy begins to bring to Philadelphia.

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Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SF Giants +135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Quite simple reasoning. Teams down 0-3 in a four game series tend to throw in the towel. Even if Detroit wins here we can still get + money on the Giants in the next game. Detroit doesn't want to have to go back to San Francisco down in the series so we look to fade the winless club.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 28

Chuck O'Brien

The San Diego Chargers are slowly transforming into the disappointing team their fans have come to loathe over the years. Coming off a bye week, they're also in after blowing second-half leads in their last two games, consecutive losses to New Orleans and Denver. I don't think the week of rest means a thing for this game, as I believe the Cleveland Browns are a live underdog today at home, and I'll gladly take the points. I see the line is a flat -3 at most places, so I do suggest you buy the half point and play this one at +3.5.

We last saw the Chargers, who are mired in a 0-4 ATS slide in the month of October, on a Monday night against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, who erased a 24-0 halftime deficit and ended up winning the game, 35-24. The Chargers have been outscored 52-7 in the second halves of their past two games.

I've certainly been impressed by rookie Brandon Weeden, who has matured week after week, and since throwing four interceptions in his debut against Philadelphia. Last week rookie Josh Gordon dropped a crucial ball, and the Browns ended up losing at Indianapolis, 17-13.

I know the Browns have lost 12 of 13, but this will be their first home game for new team owner Jimmy Haslam, and I expect Weeden to have a big game today. He's thrown two touchdown passes in three straight games and leads all rookies in yards passing (1,783), TDs (nine) and completions of 20 or more yards (25). And Gordon has touchdown receptions of more than 30 yards in three straight games.

Yeah, things are about to get electric, and it's not because of the Bolts.

Cleveland comes into this game on ATS win streaks of 5-0 after failing to cover the number, 8-2 after a straight-up loss, 6-2 against the AFC and 8-3 overall.

Take the home dog.

2♦ CLEVELAND

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Matt Rivers

On a 40-28 free play run entering Sunday.

Sunday free football play on the Falcons at the Eagles.

Bird battle here, and both teams coming off their bye-weeks, and coming off them with different mindsets. Atlanta is the lone unbeaten team in the league, while Philadelphia is a disappointing 3-3 and saw their defensive coordinator axed immediately after their home loss to Detroit on the 14th.

Whatever it is, it certainly has not been a pleasure ride for Philly this season, and against the disciplined Falcons, I do not expect the Eagles to right their ship. Mike Vick is still shaky when it comes to protecting the ball, so it would be unwise to put your eggs in this fragile Philly basket.

As for Matt Ryan, this is sort-of-a-homecoming, as he played his high school football in City of Brotherly Love, and would love to beat the Eagles at the Linc. These teams are meeting for the 5th straight season and the Eagles are 3-1 both straight up and against the line - that lone loss coming last season at the Georgia Dome.

Falcons to make it two in a row over the Eagles as they keep their mark clean at 7-0.

3♦ ATLANTA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 28

Jeff Benton

Your Sunday freebie is the Colts-Titans to play to an Over at LP Field.

The Colts play on the road for the third time this year, and both previous meetings (at Chicago, at the Jets) away from home have played Over the total. I think this road game will as well, as Tennessee's defense has been an absolute sieve this year - 34 points per game allowed - in their seven games contested.

As for Tennessee, each of their last pair of games and five of their last six overall have played on the high-side.

Not hard to imagine the points adding up once again, as the Indy defense has allowed 20 points or more in five of their six games played this year.

Bombs Away! Colts-Titans ring up the scoreboard.

4♦ INDIANAPOLIS-TENNESSEE OVER

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Anthony Redd

The Jets are far from Super Bowl contenders, but they've at least played better the past three weeks, and that's the confidence-builder they need heading into today's contest against the visiting Dolphins, who they narrowly defeated in overtime, 23-20, in the season's first meeting thanks to Miami's kicker missing two crucial field goal tries.

New York's offense managed 403 yards in the 29-26 OT loss at New England last Sunday. Mark Sanchez was actually very good, completing 28 of 41 passes for 328 yards.

Sanchez passed for 306 yards in the first meeting with Miami.

The Jets are a perfect 3-0 as favorites this season, downing the Bills, Colts and Dolphins. Make that 4-0 after this contest.

4♦ NY JETS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 28

Craig Davis

Sunday free play is the Miami Dolphins as the small underdog versus the Jets.

As a Jets fan, my biggest concern today would be the emotional letdown of such a physical game with the New England Patriots last week.

It was still a loss, but it was a game they had the chance to win and probably should have won. While I understand that the Dolphins are a huge division rival, Gang Green did put everything that they had into last week's performance.

New York is going to struggle to slow down Reggie Bush after he received a full week to rest because of Miami's bye week. Surprisingly, though, New York's pass defense is playing much better even without Darrell Revis in the lineup. Can they fluster the rookie QB (Ryan Tannehill) enough for him to make the mistakes rookies normally make?

I believe the Dolphins pull the upset in this game at the line of scrimmage --- the point of attack. When a team is fully rested vs. a team that just got done with a very physical game the week before, it's usually the advantage for the team that had the bye week. Not rocket science, I realize.

Both teams realize the importance of this game in the division as all four teams in the AFC East are within two games of each other, but I believe Miami's freshness and the fact they will probably win the battle at the line of scrimmage, I'm liking their chances to not only cover this number, but possibly win outright.

Free play of the day on the Miami Dolphins plus the points.

2♦ MIAMI

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