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NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
NFL Week 8 Opening Point Spreads and Early Line Movement
By: The Linemakers
A look at NFL Week 8 opening lines and where the early bets were placed.
Thursday, Oct. 25
Buccaneers at Vikings (-6.5)
Tampa Bay lost, 35-28, as a slight home dog vs. New Orleans on Sunday. Minnesota won, 21-14, but pushed against Arizona. The Vikes are back in the home favorite role next week. There was a significant early move on Minnesota, as the line jumped to 8 a few minutes after opening, but it was bet back to 6.5 almost immediately.
Sunday, Oct. 28
Patriots (-8.5) at Rams
St. Louis is back in its home underdog role, after losing and failing to cover while getting 5 on Sunday vs. the Packers. The Rams are still 5-2 ATS this season and 3-1 at home. New England won in overtime against the Jets but failed to cover as a double-digit favorite. The Rams took a lot of early action, driving next Sunday’s line all the way down to 7.
Colts at Titans (-3.5)
The Colts get back on the road, where they’re 0-2 on the season, with blowout losses in Chicago and at the New York Jets. Tennessee got its second straight win, as 3.5-point dogs in Buffalo, on Sunday.
Jaguars at Packers (NL)
Green Bay continues to look like it might finally have things figured out with a 30-20 win as a 5-point favorite in St. Louis, which hasn’t been an easy place to play this season. Jacksonville lost in overtime, 26-23, but covered as a 6-point dog in Oakland. The Jags lost QB Blaine Gabbert and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, and with their status uncertain, no line was posted for next week.
Chargers (-3 even) at Browns
Cleveland lost in Indy, dropping its record to 1-6. San Diego was off.
Falcons at Eagles (-2.5 even)
Both teams were off Sunday, and Philly needed the bye-week more than Atlanta. Next week, the Falcons put their undefeated record on the line against an Eagles team that is 3-3 SU and a money-sucking 1-4-1 ATS.
Seahawks (-3-120) at Lions
Seattle was again involved with a crazy point spread finish, getting the cover when 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh declined a penalty that would have resulted in a safety at the end of last Thursday night’s game in San Francisco. The Seahawks have been covering monsters, boasting a 5-2 record ATS. They’re 2-2 on the road ATS, but have covered their last two, in Carolina and, of course, San Francisco. Detroit is in Chicago Monday night and is a paltry 1-4 ATS. After some early Lions money, next Sunday’s line was adjusted to -3, but the additional vig on Seattle was tacked back on soon thereafter.
Dolphins at Jets (-2.5)
These two AFC East rivals play for the second time this season. New York won the first meeting in overtime, 23-20, and got the narrow cover. The Jets hung tough in New England on Sunday, losing, 29-26, in overtime, but covered easily as a 10.5-point dog. They are 5-2 ATS this season and have covered three straight. The Dolphins were off.
Panthers at Bears (-7)
Carolina dropped to 1-5 with a loss at home vs. the Cowboys. They’re not much better ATS, covering just twice. Chicago hosts the Lions on Monday night. Bears backers jumped on next week’s opening number and pushed it to 7.5
Redskins at Steelers (-4)
Washington lost but covered as 6.5-point dogs at the New York Giants. Pittsburgh visited Cincinnati Sunday night. The Skins took early action here, moving the line to -3.5
Raiders at Chiefs (-1)
Oakland struggled at home against Jacksonville, but pulled off the three-point overtime win as 6-point favorites. Kansas City was off.
Giants at Cowboys (-1)
Dallas won in New York as a 3.5-point dog in the NFL’s season opener and improved their record to 3-3 with the win in Carolina on Sunday. The Giants won, 27-23, but failed to cover at home against Washington.
Saints at Broncos (-4.5)
New Orleans held on for its second straight win, in Tampa, 35-28. Denver, which was off, took serious early action, and next Sunday's line was moved all the way up to 6.
Monday, Oct. 29
49ers (-7) at Cardinals
After being a covering machine late last season and early this season, Arizona has failed to cover in its last four—it did get the push as 7-point dog in Minnesota on Sunday. San Fran failed to cover—thanks to Harbaugh’s instantly infamous decision—in its win at home against Seattle on Thursday. Bettors took the points early here, and next Monday night’s line moved off the key number and down to 6.5.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys (3-3, 3-3 ATS) are allegedly back according to owner Jerry Jones. Ya! right Jerry, your 'Boys' needed two field goals in the fourth quarter to recover from a 14-13 deficit to beat a hapless Carolina squad with the leagues 24th-ranked total offense (335.5) and ranked 28th in scoring (17.7). Good luck with knocking off Big-Blue (5-2, 3-3-1 ATS) Sunday at Cowboys Stadium a squad that allows slightly more (19.6) than your team can muster on an average day (18.8) and one that sports the leagues 2nd best total offense (411.6) with the 4th best scoring unit (29.3). Besides Giants have had this one circled since opening week at MetLife Stadium and they'll exact sweet revenge knowing 'Captain Comeback' is 3-0 SU/ATS in three trips to your $1.2 billion football palace throwing for 1,036 yards, eight TD's.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
Missing two of their top offensive players, QB Blaine Gabbert and Maurice Jones-Drew things aren't looking good for Jaguars chances at snapping a three game slide when they visit Lambeau Field. Pack's QB Aaron Rodgers tossing six TD's in the destruction of Texans, 3 TD's in defeating Rams should have a field day against the Jags pass protection shredded for 829 yards, 5 TD's over it's current losing streak. Green Bay a perfect 6-0 ATS at home outscoring visitors by 24.7 PPG following a road win as a favorite will be tagged in the range of 12 to 14 points favorites vs a Jag squad ridding a 6-12 ATS skid vs the NFC, 7-18-1 ATS slide vs a winning team
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
Buccaneers at Vikings
By Brian Edwards
This week’s Thursday night NFL game takes us to Minneapolis where the Vikings will attempt to double their win total from a season ago against former division rival Tampa Bay.
Most books opened Minnesota (5-2 straight up, 3-3-1 against the spread) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 41. As of early Wednesday, the Vikings were favored by 6½ with the total moved up to 42. Gamblers can take the Buccaneers on the money line for a plus-325 payout (risk $100 to win $325).
Leslie Frazier’s team is unbeaten in four home games, compiling a 2-1-1 spread record. The Vikings won a 21-14 decision over Arizona last week as seven-point home favorites. The 35 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 38½-point total.
Adrian Peterson ran through the Cardinals for 153 yards and one touchdown on 23 carries. Percy Harvin had a three-yard touchdown catch from Christian Ponder, who was intercepted twice and threw for only 58 yards.
Nevertheless, Minnesota got the victory thanks to a stellar pass rush that was all over Arizona quarterback John Skelton for 60 minutes. Brian Robison had three sacks and Jared Allen had two to improve his season total to six.
Despite the doubters that found it unlikely that Peterson could be healthy and productive after tearing his ACL at Washington last December, the Oklahoma product is fourth in the NFL in rushing with 652 yards. The scary thing for the rest of the league is that he’s clearly getting stronger each week. Peterson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has three rushing scores, in addition to 22 catches for 135 yards.
Harvin is also enjoying a banner year, producing 1,142 all-purpose yards and four TDs. He had a game-opening kickoff return for a TD that was called back due to a penalty last week.
Ponder, the second-year signal caller out of FSU, has demonstrated steady improvement despite last week’s poor performance. He has connected on 67 percent of his throws for 1,492 yards with a 9/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Vikings are ranked sixth in the NFL in scoring defense, surrendering only 18.7 points per game.
Tampa Bay (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) is winless in a pair of road assignments, but it took the cash in both defeats at New York (41-34) and at Dallas (16-10). Greg Schiano’s squad is coming off a 35-28 loss at home to New Orleans as a one-point underdog.
On the bright side, third-year quarterback Josh Freeman played his best game of the year, throwing for 420 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. A potential fourth TD pass on the final play of the game appeared to be a game-tying score, but Mike Williams was penalized for illegal touching after going out of bounds before catching a dart from Freeman in the back of the end zone.
Another potential TD pass to Vincent Jackson was thwarted when Saints cornerback Malcolm Jenkins made a great hustle play, running down Jackson from across the field when he appeared poised to complete a 96-yard TD grab. But Jenkins brought him down at the two yard line and then the Saints mounted an incredible goal-line stand.
Jackson, who we should note had missed practice several times due to an injury before the game, still managed to set a team-record with 216 receiving yards on seven catches. Doug Martin rushed 16 times for 85 yards, including a 36-yard TD scamper that put Tampa Bay ahead 14-0 in the first quarter.
For the season, Freeman has completed 55.6 percent of his passes for 1,538 yards with an 11/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. As expected, Jackson has been an outstanding addition from the Chargers, hauling in 27 catches for 586 yards and five TDs.
Martin, the rookie out of Boise St., has 408 rushing yards and two TDs on 100 totes. He can also catch it out of the backfield, as evidenced by 13 receptions for 145 yards.
The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for the Bucs, 1-1 in its two road assignments. The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for the Vikings, 3-1 in their home games.
Dating back to October of 2001, Tampa Bay has won five in a row over the Vikings both SU and ATS. The ‘over’ has hit in six of the last nine head-to-head meetings.
Kickoff is scheduled for Thursday night at 8:25 p.m. Eastern on The NFL Network.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
As a home favorite on Frazier’s watch, Minnesota has posted a 3-4-1 spread record.
The Rams, Jets, Seahawks and Texans share the NFL’s best ATS records (5-2).
The Eagles have been the worst team for their backers, limping to a 1-4-1 spread record.
The ‘over’ is an NFL-best 5-1 in New Orleans games.
The ‘under’ is an NFL-best 6-1 for the Seahawks and Cardinals.
The ‘over’ is on a 5-0 run for the Patriots, while the ‘under’ has cashed in four of the Rams’ last five games. The total is 47 for New England’s trip to St. Louis on Sunday. Jeff Fisher’s team had won outright in all three home games as an underdog before losing 30-20 to Green Bay last week. As of Wednesday, the Pats were favored by seven.
Green Bay has won three of its last four games thanks to QB Aaron Rodgers, who has a 16/2 TD-INT ratio in those four contests.
The highest total on the board (by far) in Week 8 is 55½ for New Orleans at Denver.
Houston defensive end J.J. Watt leads the NFL in sacks with 10½. Green Bay LB Clay Matthews is second with nine.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers at Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 42.5)
The Minnesota Vikings remain one of the league's biggest early surprises, but they had to survive an inept performance on offense to continue their drive for an NFC North crown. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, meanwhile, had nothing to show for their best offensive output of the season. Minnesota will look to double last season's win total when they host the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
The Vikings remained perfect at home with an ugly 21-7 victory over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday while the Buccaneers blew a 14-point lead against the New Orleans Saints to absorb their fourth loss in the last five games. Tampa Bay won at Minnesota in Week 2 last season before unraveling and finishing the season on a 10-game losing streak.
LINE: The Vikings opened as big as touchdown favorites but have been bet down to -6.5. The total has also moved from 41.5 to 42.5.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS): Tampa Bay rolled up a season-best 513 yards of total offense and Josh Freeman threw for a career-high 420 yards, but the Bucs were unable to hold off Drew Brees and the Saints after building a 21-7 lead. Vincent Jackson hauled in seven catches for 216 yards and one of Freeman's three TD passes, but Tampa Bay failed to scored on a first-and-goal at the 1-yard line and had two apparent tying touchdowns in the final five seconds negated by a penalty and a receiver landing out of bounds. Rookie running back Doug Martin had his highest output since the season opener with 85 yards and a TD on 16 carries.
ABOUT THE VIKINGS (5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS): Minnesota's second-half performance against Arizona was an eyesore, but the one positive was the re-emergence of star running back Adrian Peterson. He powered his way to a season-high 153 yards on 23 carries and scored his first touchdown since Week 1. The passing game was another story, particularly in the second half. Christian Ponder threw for only 58 yards - four in the second half - with one TD and two interceptions. Minnesota managed only 12 first downs and 209 total yards, punting on its first five possessions of the second half and going three-and-out four straight times. DE Jared Allen had two of the Vikings' seven sacks.
* Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.
* Vikings are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
1. The Buccaneers have won the last five meetings between the teams.
2. Peterson is tied with Robert Smith (29) for the most 100-yard games in franchise history.
3. Buccaneers S Ronde Barber had his third interception of the season and 46th of his career last week.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
Week 8 NFL Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Heading into Week 8 of the NFL season, home favorites of 3 ½ points or less own a dreadful 8-18 ATS record. Five teams are in that situation this week, including three clubs that are hosting division opponents. Home 'chalk' laying 3 ½ points or fewer have covered just two of eight times this season against division foes, while the 'under' has cashed six times. We'll take a look at these five contests with short home favorites, starting with an AFC South battle as two teams attempt to grab their fourth victory of the season.
Colts at Titans (-3½, 47)
Tennessee is favored for the first time this season following consecutive victories over Pittsburgh and Buffalo. The Titans try to reach the .500 mark with a win over the Colts, who knocked off the hapless Browns last week, 17-13. Both teams are playing their second divisional contest, as Tennessee was trampled at Houston in Week 4, while Indianapolis lost at home to Jacksonville in Week 3.
The Titans rallied for wins over the Steelers (26-23) and Bills (35-34), while posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record against teams currently at .500 or below. Tennessee cashed just two of six times in Mike Munchak's first season as a home favorite, but one of those victories came over Indianapolis last October. Due to Tennessee's porous defense, the Titans have hit the 'over' in five of six games, while allowing 30 points or more five times.
The Colts have failed to win consecutive games this season, coming off their third victory against the Browns last week as a short favorite. Indianapolis is riding a 10-game losing streak away from Lucas Oil Stadium dating back to last season, including an 0-5 ATS run as a single-digit underdog. The home team has won six of the previous eight meetings in the series, but a majority of these games did have Peyton Manning under center for the Colts.
Falcons at Eagles (-3, 45)
The final undefeated team in the NFL tries to move to 7-0 with a victory on Sunday as Atlanta heads to Philadelphia. Andy Reid's club is in a prime spot this week coming off the bye, as the Eagles own a 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS record the last 10 seasons in this situation. Philadelphia will try to bounce back after throwing away a 10-point lead in an overtime defeat to Detroit two weeks ago.
The Eagles have cashed only two of six games this season, including a 1-4 ATS record in the favorite role. The offense isn't anywhere close to hitting its stride right now, as Philadelphia has scored 19 points or less in four of six contests. Philadelphia has won each of the last four meetings at Lincoln Financial Field dating back to 2005.
The Falcons are also off the bye week, but Mike Smith's team has escaped some dicey situations the last three games. Atlanta overcame second-half deficits in victories over Carolina, Washington, and Oakland, while putting together the best start in franchise history at 6-0. In their time as an underdog this season, the Falcons dominated the Chargers in Week 3 as three-point 'dogs, 27-3. The Falcons have won three of four games off the bye in Smith's tenure with the lone defeat coming at Philadelphia in 2008.
Seahawks at Lions (-2½, 43)
Seattle hasn't lost a home game yet this season (3-0), but Pete Carroll's club will try to improve on a 1-3 record away from CenturyLink Field. All three of Seattle's defeats came within the NFC West, including a 13-6 setback at San Francisco last Thursday as 7 ½-point underdogs. The Seahawks travel at least two time zones for the third time in five weeks, as they land in Detroit to battle a Lions' club coming off a Monday night loss at Chicago.
The Lions managed a Wild Card spot last season, but Jim Schwartz's team has work to do if they want a return trip to the playoffs. Detroit is just 2-4 through six games, including an 0-2 mark inside the NFC North. The Lions will try to bust through as a favorite for the first time this season following non-covers against the Rams, Titans, and Vikings.
The Seahawks have rolled when receiving points this season by cashing in all five opportunities as an underdog. Seattle's defense is the main reason for this success, allowing 13 points or less in four of five games in the underdog role. The Seahawks are making their third trip to Ford Field, which includes the loss in Super Bowl XL to the Steelers, but many members of that team are now off the roster.
Dolphins at Jets (-2½, 40½)
New York sat two minutes away from building a 3-0 record in the AFC East, but the Patriots kicked the game-tying field goal then the game-winner in overtime to stun the Jets, 29-26. The Jets did manage to cover as 11-point underdogs, their third consecutive ATS victory. The Dolphins travel to Met Life Stadium, as weather could be an issue with Hurricane Sandy making its way up the East Coast.
Miami returns from the bye week following consecutive victories over Cincinnati and St. Louis, while attempting to avenge an overtime setback to the Jets in Week 3 as short home 'dogs, 23-20. Joe Philbin's squad owns a 3-1 ATS record as a single-digit underdog, as the Dolphins seek their fourth road win over the Jets in the last five tries. In spite of the Dolphins going 3-3 to the 'under,' the argument can be made that the 'under' could have at least two more times if not for late scores to force overtime.
The Jets have exploded in home victories over the Bills and Colts, scoring 83 points in those two routs. New York's schedule hasn't been kind to them with losses already to San Francisco and Houston at home, but the Jets are 3-0 SU/ATS in the favorite role. Three of the next four games for the Jets following the bye week come against the NFC West, but the Jets head into this week with a 1-3 SU/ATS at home off a division loss in Rex Ryan's tenure.
Raiders at Chiefs (-1½, 42)
These old AFL rivals have hit the skids this season, combining for a 3-9 record, while all three of the wins came when trailing in the fourth quarter. Oakland stunned Jacksonville last Sunday in overtime, rallying from a 14-point deficit to beat the Jaguars, 26-23, but the Raiders failed to cover as six-point 'chalk.' The Chiefs have plenty of problems, as Romeo Crennel turns to former Notre Dame standout Brady Quinn to right the ship at quarterback.
Kansas City should be fortunate it has even one victory this season, overcoming a 24-6 deficit in a 27-24 overtime triumph at New Orleans in Week 3 as nine-point 'dogs. Since that win, the Chiefs have scored 36 total points in losses to the Chargers, Ravens, and Buccaneers. The Chiefs are favored for the first time since Week 16 of last season when Kansas City was tripped up by Oakland as three-point favorites, 16-13. Since 2008, the Chiefs have put together a dreadful 3-10 ATS record when laying points at Arrowhead Stadium.
The road team owns this series over the last few seasons, as the Raiders have won five consecutive trips to Western Missouri. Oakland is averaging just 13 points per game in three away losses, but managed a cover as nine-point 'dogs in a three-point loss at Atlanta two weeks ago. The Silver and Black doesn't mess around against division foes on the highway, compiling an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS record since 2009, with the lone ATS defeat coming at Denver in Week 4.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
Vegas Money Moves - Week 8
By Micah Roberts
It looks like we’re going to have a barn burner on Sunday night when the New Orleans Saints visit the Denver Broncos, where Las Vegas sports books have posted the total at 55½ the highest number of Week 8 and the season. A lot of times when we see high totals on these type of games, the game doesn’t live up to expectations, but it’s hard to imagine this one not giving us a video game type of offensive production.
If the league’s worst defense of the Saints, allowing just over 30 points per game, doesn’t give a valid reason to believe the pace of this game will be fat, then maybe the offensive production of the two starting quarterbacks will. Only five quarterbacks in NFL history have averaged over 250 yards per game over their career, and Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are No. 1 and 2, respectively.
On the season, the Saints have averaged 29.3 points per game while Broncos have averaged 28.3. For the Saints, no team has been able to slow their offense down. Their problem -- the reason they started out 0-4 is that they can’t stop anyone. However, in their past two games, the Saints have had better defensive production and they get good news this week as Joe Vitt returns to the sideline as interim head coach after serving a six-game suspension for his role in the “Bounty-Gate” scandal.
This year’s version of the Broncos has improved every week as Manning and his core of offensive players are finally getting on the same page with one another. Their three losses on the season have come against Top-5 rated teams in the league Atlanta, Houston and New England. Yet, in each of those losses, defenses still had a tough time stopping Manning in the second half.
The Broncos seem to go to extreme highs and lows offensively during their games, with the lows usually being in the first quarter. Before their bye week, they took the extremes to new heights as they gave the Chargers a 24-0 halftime lead before rolling out a 35-0 second half. Ironically, it was a week earlier where the Saints were down at the half to San Diego and used a 17-7 second half run to win 31-24.
The Broncos opened as 4½-point favorites last Sunday night and bettors perceived the number offering some value and ran it up to 6½ in just over an hour. On Monday morning, Saints money finally found its way to the book and pushed the number down to 6, where it’s remained all week. The total opened 54½ Monday and was bet up to 55½ by Tuesday morning.
Here’s a look at some of the other line movements in Las Vegas from this week:
The Patriots and Rams meet in London for the sixth regular season game to be played across the pond. Our brand of football has people excited in London just because it‘s something different for them, but the top match of the day in the city will be across town when proper football is played at Stamford Bridge between Manchester United and Chelsea.
This will be the second time the Patriots have played in England, and the locals have to be wondering why the NFL would send a team with name like the “Patriots” over so much. It’s like an American winning at Wimbledon on the Fourth of July. It's been 236 years, but there is still some bitterness over the revolution by ‘Their’ colonies.
The Pats opened up as 8½-point favorites and have been bet down to 7 with no movement on the total at 47. The English punters will have fun with the wagering aspect and fire away on the games at betting stations all around the stadium, even though the NFL forbids Las Vegas to buy ad time for the Super Bowl. I guess we’re bad in legal Las Vegas, but their good because it’s legal there. Doesn’t make much sense!
The Packers appear to be getting their rhythm back to 2011 speed and have looked very good the past two weeks, which is why we saw a big fat -15 on the board for their home game against the Jaguars. Because of injuries on the Jaguars, the first move was taking the Packers up to -15½, but has since been bet down to 14½. Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert (shoulder) is expected to play, but Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) is out.
The Falcons may be 6-0, but bettors still like the turnover machine known as the Eagles as they’ve bet Philly from -2½ up to -3 (EVEN).
The Seahawks haven’t been their best away from Seattle, but bettors seem to trust them more in this situation than the Lions, who have been offensively challenged this season. The Lions opened up at -3 (EVEN) and Seattle money has pushed the game off the key number down to 2½.
The Jets beat the Dolphins 23-20 in Miami last month and are playing a brand of football closer to what Rex Ryan would like lately, despite being only 1-2 in their past three. However, they got the cover in all three games two of them against two of the best teams in the league (Houston, New England). The Jets opened at -2½ and have stayed there all week.
The Bears have been bet from 7-point home favorites against the Panthers to -7½. Second-year QB Cam Newton asked the media for a suggestion box after another embarrassing Panthers performance last week, and it’s not going to get any easier for him this week against the Bears defense. Good luck, kid.
The Steelers opened as 4-point home favorites against the Redskins and have been bet up to -4½. Make a note that Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is 14-1 in his career against rookie quarterbacks.
The Raiders and Chiefs usually win as visitors when squaring off, which makes this line seem a little strange where the Chiefs are -1½. Trends aside, the Chiefs have lost three in a row, and badly. Even worse is that backup QB Brady Quinn has no grasp on how to run any offense and he’ll be leading the Chiefs charge this week.
The Cowboys opened as 1-point home favorites against the Giants and that number has ran, the other way. The Giants are now -2 , and justifiably so.
The 49ers opened as 7-point road favorites against the Cardinals and the number has been bouncing around 6½ and 7 all week. By the time this game kicks off on Monday, it’ll be at least 7½, so if you like the 49ers, jump in when/if it drops back down to -6½ and if you like the Cards, wait until Monday.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
NFL Poolies Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 8
Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Here are our quick-hitting notes on all of Week 8's action.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-14.5, 45.5)
Both the Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars will be without a key player when they meet at Lambeau Field. Green Bay will be without S Charles Woodson. The former NFL Defensive Player of the Year suffered a broken left clavicle in last week's 30-20 triumph at St. Louis and is expected to miss at least six weeks. The Jaguars, who have lost three in a row, will not have Maurice Jones-Drew in the lineup after the running back sprained his left foot on the first play of last Sunday's 26-23 overtime loss at Oakland and is out indefinitely. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1, 40.5)
The Dolphins suffered an overtime loss at home to the Jets last month after carrying a seven-point lead into the fourth quarter and missed a pair of field goals, including the game-winner in the extra session. Miami's last four games have all been decided by four points or fewer, including wins at Cincinnati (17-13) and against St. Louis (17-14) entering its bye. The Jets have been hit-or-miss at home, scoring one offensive TD in back-to-back losses to San Francisco and Houston while rolling up a combined 83 points in wins over Buffalo and Indianapolis. The Dolphins have played under the total in their last seven October games.
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (3, 44)
The Chargers were accused of using Stickum - a banned substance - during their 35-24 loss to Denver on Oct. 15 and continue to be investigated by the NFL. San Diego also had extra time to think about how they blew a 24-0 halftime lead against the Broncos. Browns RB Trent Richardson had eight yards on eight carries last week against the Colts before being benched at halftime as he tried to play with a rib cartilage injury. Richardson said he intends to be ready for Sunday. The under is 7-1 in Cleveland’s last eight home games.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 47)
The Titans have been a sieve on defense, allowing a league-worst 238 points, but they eked out a 35-34 victory over the Buffalo Bills last week on Matt Hasselbeck's fourth-down touchdown pass with 63 seconds to play. Chris Johnson broke out of his season-long funk, rushing for 195 yards and two touchdowns in the victory over Buffalo. Johnson had been held to 24 yards or fewer in four of the team's first five games. The Colts have won six of the last seven meetings with Tennessee, but all but one of those victories came with Peyton Manning under center. The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.
New England Patriots at St. Louis Rams (7, 47)
The Rams lost a little zip in their offensive attack when receiver Danny Amendola went down with a collarbone injury in Week 5. Since then, QB Sam Bradford has just one TD pass and the Rams have lost two straight. Four teams have logged season highs in yards gained against New England, which has allowed an average of 338 yards through the air in its last five games. Remember, this game is being played at Wembley Stadium in London, England taking away home advantage for either team. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles had the bye week to get acquainted with a new defensive coordinator. Todd Bowles’ first test comes when the Eagles host the last unbeaten team in the NFL, the Atlanta Falcons. Head coach Andy Reid is 13-0 after a bye week, the longest winning streak since bye weeks were introduced. But this time he has had to oversee a change on the defensive side of the ball after firing Juan Castillo and promoting Bowles from the secondary.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-9, 43)
Chicago tops the NFL with a plus-13 turnover margin and has allowed a league-best 13 points per game, which doesn't bode well for Carolina and second-year QB Cam Newton. The Panthers have lost four straight and have been plagued by turnovers all season - their minus-6 turnover margin ranks 26th in the league. The bad news keeps coming for Carolina, which placed CB Chris Gamble (torn labrum) and LB Jon Beason (knee, shoulder) on injured reserve this week. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five October games.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-1, 43)
The Seahawks pulled off an upset of the New England Patriots in Week 6 but fell flat at San Francisco last Sunday, scoring a season-low six points. Quarterback Russell Wilson has two touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 58.9 completion percentage in four road games this season. Detroit turned the ball over three times in the red zone in Monday’s 13-7 loss at Chicago and did not find the end zone until late in the fourth quarter. The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 47)
Pittsburgh, which is coming off its first road win, has won eight straight inter-conference games and Ben Roethlisberger is 14-1 at home against NFC opponents. And rookie QBs are 1-14 against Dick LeBeau’s intricate zone-blitz schemes since the 75-year-old returned to Pittsburgh in 2004. Redskins TE Fred Davis, who leads the team with 24 receptions, tore his Achilles' tendon in last week’s loss to the Giants. The Redskins filled the void Monday by re-signing eight-year veteran TE Chris Cooley, who was released in the offseason. The teams have played under the total in their last four meetings.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 42.5)
Brady Quinn will make his second straight start at QB - and first since coach Romeo Crennel appointed him the primary option for the foreseeable future – when the Chiefs seek to end a three-game losing streak against the visiting Oakland Raiders. The Raiders, 0-3 on the road this season, overcame three turnovers and a 20-6 deficit to beat Jacksonville last week. Oakland is 31st in the league in rushing (76.8 ypg) despite having one of the most electrifying tailbacks in the league in Darren McFadden. Run DMC is only averaging 2.6 yards per carry over the last three games. The teams have played under the total in 12 of their last 14 meetings.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (1, 47.5)
Eli Manning pulled off his 24th career fourth-quarter comeback in a win over Washington last Sunday but will be taking on a Cowboys secondary that is the strength of the defense. Dallas knocked off New York in the season opener, 24-17, but may without starting RB DeMarco Murray, who has missed practice this week with a sprained foot. Felix Jones will start if Murray can't suit up. Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar could also see carries for the Cowboys. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6, 55.5)
The Saints have won two straight after an 0-4 start and welcome back interim coach Joe Vitt, who finished serving a suspension for his role in Bountygate. The Broncos enjoyed their bye week following a 35-24 comeback victory at San Diego on Oct. 15 and will try to take advantage of the Saints' NFL-worst defense which has allowed 2,793 yards through six games, the most in NFL history since at least 1950. Denver CB Tracy Porter, who played four seasons in New Orleans (2008-11), missed the San Diego game after experiencing light-headedness and a rapid heartbeat - symptoms he felt prior to a seizure in August - but could be cleared to play Sunday. The over is 10-1 in the Saints’ last 11 games overall.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
Total Talk - Week 8
By Chris David
Week 7 Recap
Total players have seen a real good balance this season and Week 7 was no different. The 'under' went 7-6 and most of the outcomes were clear-cut. The Green Bay-St. Louis was mentioned last week as a "Total System Play" and it cashed the 'over' but it was real fortunate. The two teams put up a combined 27 points (7 in the last minute) in the final quarter, which helped jump over the closing number of 45. These second-half outbursts have been very common through seven weeks and it's definitely helped the betting public get back some money on 'over' tickets. On the season, the 'over' stands at 52-51-1.
Lookin' at London
The NFL International Series returns this week with New England (4-3) and St. Louis (3-4) meeting at Wembley Stadium from London. This will be the sixth installment from England and if the trends stay true, we could be looking at another 'under' ticket.
2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 - San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)
2011 - Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 (Under 44)
The 'under' is cashing at an 80% (4-1) clip in these games and you could point to travel or even the dreary overcast weather in London. Either way you slice it, the numbers don't lie. For this week's matchup, the total opened at 46 ½ and jumped to 47 at a few outfits
New England is one of the few teams in the league that has an offense (34.8 PPG) that can come close to eclipsing the total by itself. However, the Rams' offense (18.6 PPG) has been very inconsistent this season but they'll be facing a Patriots' defense (23.3 PPG) that has been suspect at times. Does a bad offense score on a bad defense?
The Patriots have seen the 'over' cash in four straight games after their first two went 'under.' St. Louis has seen the 'under' go 4-3 but that number should easily be 5-2 if it wasn't for the aforementioned "Bad Beat" above.
Indianapolis at Tennessee: This total (47) is clearly based on the Titans' defense, which has allowed an average of 34 PPG this season. It's hard to see Indianapolis getting to that number, considering it's only scored a combined 30 points in two road contests this season. Tennessee's offense has played better with Matt Hasselbeck at QB, scoring 26 and 35 points the last two weeks. Despite the results this season, the 'under' has gone 6-1 in the last seven encounters between this pair.
Miami at N.Y. Jets: New York stopped Miami 23-20 in Week 3 and the even though the game went 'over' (40.5), it was helped with some key turnovers and the extra session. The rematch has a total in the same neighborhood and you could argue either way. All of the Dolphins' games could have gone 'under' if it wasn't for some crazy second-half outbursts, including the loss to the Jets. New York has seen the 'over' go 4-3 and even though the team has put 35 and 26 points the last two weeks, this isn't a run 'n shoot squad. With a Hurricane approaching the East Coast this weekend, keep an eye on the weather reports.
Oakland at Kansas City: Seven of the last eight in this series has gone 'under' and it could be eight of nine come Sunday. With Brady Quinn at quarterback, the Chiefs haven't been able to do anything but a week of rest could change that and the Raiders' defense (28.5 PPG) is far from good. Kansas City doesn't have a great defense (30.5 PPG) either but Oakland's offense has looked sluggish on the road (13 PPG).
N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Seems like a high number (47½) here, considering the Giants (5-2) and Cowboys (4-2) have solid marks to the 'under.' In the Week 1 opener, Dallas won 24-17 on the road. That number closed at 45½ and now it's a little higher, which makes you wonder why? Dallas has scored 16 and 18 in two home games and New York has allowed a total of 29 points in three road games. Certainly hard to argue an 'over' play when you look at the matchup on paper but the line could have you scratching your head. Also, don't forget the Cowboys' defense lost LB Sean Lee (toe) for the season and that's tough to overcome.
San Francisco at Arizona: This is the lowest total on the board (37 ½) and you would expect the number to go up a little since it's a MNF battle. However, Arizona (6-1) and San Francisco (4-2) have both leaned to the 'under' this season and it's hard to argue otherwise. They both have great defensive units and inconsistent attacks, which is the perfect combination for an 'under.' The 'under' has gone 4-2 in the last six meetings.
The smart money went 3-0 with their total moves in Week 7. Below are the Week 8 totals that have been adjusted by 1½ points or more at CRIS as of Friday.
San Diego at Cleveland: Line opened at 45½ and dropped to 44
Atlanta at Philadelphia: Line opened at 46½ and dropped to 45
Carolina at Chicago: Line opened at 45 and dropped to 43
Under the Lights
After watching the 'over' go 3-0 in Week 6, the 'under' came back in Week 7 with a 3-0 record. Overall, the 'under' stands at 15-8 (65%) on the season, which includes the outcome between Tampa Bay and Minnesota (36-17) on Thursday. Gamblers might want to make a note that with the Bucs' outright win, the underdog has covered six straight in the mid-week matchup.
Caught a couple breaks last week and produced a 2-0 record in the Best Bets but lost the Team Total on the Jets. Guess the Patriots' defense is that bad. The Three-Team teaser cashed and gave us a profit of $190 for the week and $320 on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!
Best Over: N.Y. Giants-Dallas 47
Best Under: New England-St. Louis 47
Best Team Total: Under 20½ Oakland
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 38 N.Y. Giants-Dallas
Under 51 Oakland-Kansas City
Under 54.5 Jacksonville-Green Bay
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
NFL Week 8
Patriots (4-3) vs Rams (3-4) (@ London) — Last time Belichick/Fisher hooked up was weird ’09 game when Titans went in tank in 59-0 loss when a freak October snowstorm hit Foxboro; New England won last three series games vs Rams, first of which was SB XXXVI, when Pats’ spying tactics helped engineer upset as 12-point dogs. Rams’ three wins are vs two rookie QBs/Kolb; they couldn’t contain Rodgers when it mattered most last week, face another elite QB here. Pats have been outscored 34-6 in 4th quarter of last three games; they’re +11 in turnovers, which masks a defense that is susceptible to long pass (see end of Seattle loss). Patriots are already 0-2 vs NFC West, losing to Cards/Seahawks by total of three points; they went cross-country to Seattle two weeks ago, are crossing pond now- is that a problem? NFC West non-divisional road dogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC East non-divisional faves are 5-4.
Colts (3-3) @ Titans (3-4) — Winner here is overachieving playoff contender; Titans have three wins by total of 7 points, winning last two games in last minute behind veteran QB Hasselbeck- they’ve converted 18 of 30 3rd down plays last two weeks, but are favored for first time this year- they’re 5-8 vs spread in last 13 games as home favorite. Colts won two of last three games, but are 0-2 vs spread in game following a win; they’re 2-0 when allowing 20 or less points, 1-3 when giving up more- they’re 0-2 on road, losing 41-21 (+9.5) at Chicago, 35-9 (+3.5) at Jets. Indy won six of last seven series games, winning six of last nine visits here, but that was with Manning at QB; they lost here LY without him, and are 3-7 as road dogs since he last played for Colts. League-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-11 vs the spread, 1-1 in AFC South. Four of last five Tennessee games went over the total.
Jaguars (1-5) @ Packers (4-3) — The tree times Jaguars got spanked this year (all at home), they were held to 10 or fewer points; Packers’ last four foes all scored 20+ points. First home game in month for Green Bay squad that won/ covered in third straight road game LW, historically about a 30% play; three of four Packer wins are by 10+ points- they’re 1-2 as home favorites, beating Saints by 1, Bears by 13, losing to 49ers. Road team is 6-0 vs spread in Jax games, with Jags 3-0 as road underdogs, losing pair of OT games and winning in last minute at Indy. Problem is, Gabbert got hurt last week, so unsure if he or Henne will be under center here. Over last 10+ years, Packers are 11-7 vs spread as double digit favorites. Home teams lost three of four series games (tied 2-2), with Jaguars winning 28-25 in only previous visit here, in ’04. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-6 vs spread, 3-4 on road. Last four Green Bay games went over the total.
Chargers (3-3) @ Browns (1-6) — San Diego imploded in second half (outscored 52-7) of last two games before bye, now travels east to play opponent they’ve beaten seven of last eight meetings, winning eight of 11 games played here. Bolts won two at Oakland/KC before losing in New Orleans; they’ve covered five of last six tries as road favorites. Four of Browns’ six losses were by 7 or less points; they’re 1-2 at home, with only win this season revenge game vs Bengals, when Cleveland was +3 in turnovers. Since ’08, Browns are 8-10 as a home dog- they’re 4-10-3 vs spread in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers won six of last nine post-bye games (4-3 vs spread last 7 as favorite); TE Gates returns to old college stomping grounds (played hoop at Kent State). AFC West teams are 2-3 vs spread as non-divisional favorites; AFC North teams are 4-13 in non-divisional games, 3-5 as underdogs, 1-1 at home.
Falcons (6-0) @ Eagles (3-3) — Unbeaten Atlanta getting points in Ryan’s hometown, where Falcons lost last six visits (last win in ’88); Atlanta beat Iggles 35-31 LY at home, its first series win in last five tries. Home side won 10 of last 12 series games. Reid is unbeaten in regular season after bye, but Atlanta won three in row and six of last eight after bye, too. Falcons haven’t played great schedule; they’re +8 in turnovers (even in last three games) and were shaky winners over Carolina/Oakland in last two home games, but 6-0 is 6-0. Eagles have 17 turnovers (-9) in six games; they beat Giants in only game without a miscue. Philly lost last two games by total of 5 points; only one of their six games was won by more than a FG; Eagles are NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-8 vs spread, 2-4 at home; NFC South non-divisional road teams are 6-0 vs spread. Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total.
Seahawks (4-3) @ Lions (2-4) — Seattle returns to site of only Super Bowl appearance with four extra days of prep; they played last Thursday, Lions played Monday. Five teams are playing rookie QB’s this year, Seattle being one; those teams are 1-7 vs spread when favored, 17-8 when underdog. Seahawks won last three series games, are 7-4 vs Lions, splitting four games played here; they’re 1-3 on road, with none of four games decided by more than six points, and all four staying under total. Underdogs are 7-0 vs spread in Seahawk games, with Hawks 5-0 as dog; their losses are by 4-6-7 points. Detroit is 0-3 as favorite this year, losing two of three SU they’re -5 in turnovers, but was +2 in only win, in OT at Philly. Lions have yet to lead at halftime this season, having led in 2nd-3rd-4th quarters for a combined total of 22 seconds all season long. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 9-3 vs spread, 5-2 on road. NFC North home favorites are 4-4.
Dolphins (3-3) @ Jets (3-4) — Gang Green was outrushed 185-88 (mostly before Bush was hurt), but survived 23-20 OT win at Miami in first meeting in Week 3, 7th win for visitor in last 10 series games. Jets had 13-yard edge in field position that day. Miami won three of last four visits here; their last four games overall were all decided by 4 or less points, with Fish losing pair of OT games. Jets lost three of last four games, losing tough OT games last week in Foxboro; they’re 9-8 as home favorite under Ryan, 2-0 this year. Jets covered 15 of last 23 games when spread was 3 or less points; Miami is 3-5-1 in last nine such games- Dolphins lost six of last seven post-bye games, if they won last game before the bye, but covered eight of last 10 as divisional road dog; since 2008, Miami is 22-8-1 overall when a road underdog. Former Miami coach Sparano is Jets’ OC; Gang Green is 1-4 when their turnover ratio is worse than +3.
Panthers (1-5) @ Bears (5-1) — Chicago is playing great defense, allowing total of 34 points in last four games (3 TDs on last 44 drives), but this is trap game, after Monday night win over division rival. Carolina is 1-5, soph QB Newton is discouraged, but only one of their five losses was by more than 6 points, so hardly hopeless situation; Bears lead this series 4-3, winning last two meetings 23-6/34-29 (Panthers covered in last 1:00). Carolina lost three of four visits here, with only win in ’05 playoff game. Panthers are 0-2 on road, losing 16-10 (-2.5) at Tampa, 30-28 (+7) at Atlanta, best game they’ve played this year- they’re 4-3-1 as road dog under Rivera, but they’ve converted only 8 of 32 3rd down plays in last three games. Four of Bears’ five wins are by 16+ points; they already have 21 takeaways, and ridiculously good +13 turnover ratio, but since ’07, they’re just 11-16-1 vs spread as home favorites, 2-1 this year. Three of last four Carolina games stayed under the total.
Redskins (3-4) @ Steelers (3-3) — Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Washington games this year, 4-0 on road; Redskins are 2-2 on foreign soil, 3-0 as road underdogs, with losses by total of 7 points (@Rams/Giants). Since 2009, Skins are 15-7-1 vs spread as road dogs. None of their four losses this year are by more than seven points. Hard to believe its Halloween and this is just third home game for Pitt (beat Jets 27-10, -6/Eagles 16-14, -3.5); Steelers are 9-7 in last 16 games as home favorite, and won last four games with Redskins, last three by combined score of 63-16- they seemed to rediscover running game in second half at Cincinnati last week, running ball for 167 yards, just their second game over 75 this season. Looked like Redskins had pulled upset at Swamp last week when they scored to take 23-20 lead in last 1:30, but then defense allowed 77-yard TD pass on next play, and they had a tough loss instead. Six of seven Washington games went over total.
Raiders (2-4) @ Chiefs (1-5) — Two ancient rivals both desperate for win; Quinn (3-10 career record as starter) gets nod at QB for KC squad playing first game in front of home fans since some of them cheered after previous starting QB Cassel was injured, prompting angry reaction from a KC lineman. Chiefs are 1-5, with four losses by 16+ points, and no offensive TDs in last two games (22 drives). Raiders are 0-3 on road, allowing 31.7 ppg; both their wins are by FG at home. Home side lost 10 of last 11 series games; Raiders won six of last nine, including last five visits here, with three of five wins by exactly three points. Since 2007, Chiefs are hideous 9-17-1 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points; over last 10+ years, Raiders are terrible 16-32-2 vs spread in such games, though they were 5-1-1 LY (0-3 this year). Chiefs lost four of last five post-bye games. Four of six Oakland games went over the total.
Giants (5-2) @ Cowboys (3-3 )— Home team lost five of last seven series games, with Giants winning shootouts (33-31/41-35/37-34) in last three visits here; Dallas upset world champs 24-17 (+3.5) in season opener, outrushing them 143-82, surviving 13 penalties for 86 yards. Giants covered all three games when they ran ball for 125 yards, winning by 29-14-23 points; underdogs covered those other four games, with Giants 2-2 SU in them. Dallas has to make them one-dimensional, because they can’t outscore Eli’s offense, having scored 19 or fewer points in four of last five games (8 TDs on last 51 drives). You’re reading armadillosports.com. Cowboys held five of six foes to 112 or less rushing yards, but in two home games, Cowboys have run ball total of 37 times for only 79 yards. Dallas is 5-12-1 vs spread in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points; Giants are 5-1-1 in their last seven. Cowboys’ coaches just seem out of sync, with stuff as simple as subbing players in and out.
Saints (2-4) @ Broncos (3-3) — Peyton Manning vs his dad’s old team, in Joe Vitt’s first game back as interim coach; keep in mind Saints blasted Peyton-less Colts 62-7 LY; this is first time Peyton plays against Saints since he lost Super Bowl to them three years ago, so lot of subplots. Fox won four in row, six of last seven post-bye games; Broncos themselves covered 17 of last 21 post-bye tilts. If Bucs passed for 415 yards vs Saint defense last week, what will Manning put in thin air? Denver scored 31-37-35 points in its wins, 21-25-21 in losses; Saints are allowing average of 30.3 ppg, with five of their six games going over total. That said, NO won last two games after 0-2 start, scoring 31-35 points (8 TDs on 21 drives); average total in its three road games is an even 60. Only teams to beat Denver are 6-1 Texans/6-0 Falcons/4-3 Patriots. Broncos are 2-0 as home favorite this year, after going 5-24-2 as home favorite from 2006-11.
49ers (5-2) @ Cardinals (4-3) — Arizona lost last three games after 4-0 start, scoring 11 ppg during skid (3 TD’s on 38 drives); they’ve lost five of last six games vs 49ers, three of last five here. 49ers are +2 in turnovers after being +28 LY; they’ve run ball for average of 176.3 yards game, part of why they’ve had field position edge in five of seven games, but they have allowed 135+ rushing yards three of last five week. Redbirds are getting poor QB play from banged-up duo; they started four of six first half drives in Minnesota territory last week, scored only 7 points, which is why they lost a game where they had 14-yard edge in field position- that does not happen much. Divisional home underdogs are 6-6 vs spread this year, but 3-0 in NFC West. Six of seven Cardinal games, five of last six 49er games stayed under the total. This is like a mini-bye for 49ers, who haven’t played in 11 days and are 15-6 vs spread in game before their last 21 real byes.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
NFL Betting Preview: Atlanta at Philadelphia
By Teddy Covers
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Philadelphia
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current: Philadelphia -3 O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Philadelphia -1.5
Andy Reid took over as the Eagles head coach prior to the 1999 campaign. Here are his results as Philly’s head coach following the Eagles dozen bye weeks in the Reid era:
1999: Eagles (+ 8.5) 38, Rams 31
2000: Eagles (-10) 16, Bengals 7
2001: Eagles (+3) 10, Giants 9
2002: Eagles (-3) 20, Bucs 10
2003: Eagles (+3) 23, Bills 13
2004: Eagles (-9.5) 30, Panthers 8
2005: Eagles (-4.5) 20, Chargers 17
2006: Eagles (-7) 27, Redskins 3
2007: Eagles (-4) 16, NYJ 9
2008: Eagles (-9.5) 27, Falcons 14
2009: Eagles (-15.5) 33, Bucs 14
2010: Eagles (-3.5) 26, Colts 24
2011: Eagles (-3) 34, Cowboys 7
Yes, that’s a 13-0 SU mark (10-3 ATS); a truly impressive long term track record, especially since that record has been accumulated in so many different roles – as bigger favorites, smaller favorites AND underdogs; at home AND on the road.
The Eagles have had two weeks to adjust to new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles playcalling style. Defensive end Brandon Graham: “(Bowles) talked about not being predictable in the fourth quarter, because by the fourth quarter everybody knows what we’re going to do, and that’s how we get beat. I think Coach Bowles, it’s going to be fun to see what he’s going to be doing, because I think everything we run in practice we’re going to actually really run in the game.”
Statistically, the Eagles defense is just fine, ranked #12 in the NFL in total yards and #11 in points allowed. On a yards-per-play basis, Philly’s stop unit ranks among the top quartile in the league. That stands in sharp contrast to their sluggish, turnover-spewing offense that ranks behind only the lowly Chiefs in giveaways so far this season.
While Philly’s stats on both sides of the ball look rock solid (except for turnover margin), Atlanta’s stats show a team that has overachieved dramatically so far this season. At 6-0, the undefeated Falcons have won four of their last five by a TD or less, consistently coming out on the right side of tight games thanks to the tremendous, error-free efforts from QB Matt Ryan and his big play receivers. But the Falcons have been outgained on a yards-per-play basis. They’ve been outgained by a whopping yard and a half per carry. And unlike Philly coming in off a pair of blown fourth quarter leads, the Falcons went into the bye rather ‘fat-and happy’; primed to suffer their first defeat of the season on Sunday.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
NFL Betting Preview: New England vs. St. Louis
By Alf Musketa
Alf Musekta's Recommendation: New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS (London, England)
CRIS Opener: New England -6.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current: New England -7 O/U 46.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New England -10
This game is being played at Wembley Stadium, in London, England and yes they have a retractable roof. St. Louis originally agreed to a three-year deal from 2012 -14 that they were going to compete in the NFL's U.K. series. The owner of the Rams is Stan Kroenke who also owns local soccer club Arsenal of the English Premier League and the agreement was a natural fit. However, the Rams administration staff and coaching staff convinced their owner that going across the pond every season was not a great idea physically and financially. Thus, the English fans and tabloids have run with this story that the Rams want no part in playing in their country. The Rams are technically the home team in this contest, but are far from being anything close to that.
The Patriots are beloved by the U.K. supporters, after all they are the New England and as close to an NFL home team that they have. There will be Patriots flags and Union Jack flags flying that resemble the same colors, and therefore the crowd for this game is expected to be more than 50% in favor of the Patriots. Tom Brady's jersey is by far the No. 1 NFL seller in the U.K. He also has some Irish supporters that make the trip to London. The Patriots are the team of the Millennium having appeared in the Super Bowl five times in the past 11 seasons and U.K. sports fans watch the Super Bowl each and every year.
The Rams are making their first trip overseas and they left early on Monday, perhaps to see the sites and get acclimatized. The Patriots have already had a London game in 2009 where they defeated the Buccaneers 35-7. Head coach Bill Belichick will have his team leave later in the week arriving on Friday and that will leave little time for any distractions. Their theme and motto this week is "this trip is all business" and no, Brady will not be visiting the Royal Family as the media is suggesting.
The Rams are struggling in the passing game and have multiple injuries at wide receiver. Danny Amendola surprisingly did make the trip and may play but he's not close to 100%. The Patriots are glaringly aware that they have let other teams in the back door after having solid leads heading into the fourth quarter. Their secondary may see another switch with Kyle Arrington on the bench. I think this is a good thing as opposing offenses have been keying on him.
With a dry and fast field pitch I see the Patriots getting a comfortable lead and the Rams who rank 24th on offense and 26th in total scoring having problems putting points on the board much like they did last week against the Packers.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
Falcons at Eagles: What Bettors Need to Know
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 43.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles had the bye week to get acquainted with a new defensive coordinator. Todd Bowles’ first test comes on Sunday afternoon, when the Eagles host the last unbeaten team in the NFL, the Atlanta Falcons. Philadelphia’s defense has not gotten much help from the offense and quarterback Michael Vick, who has committed 13 turnovers through the first six games and has had to fight off calls for his removal from the starting lineup. The Falcons rank fourth in the NFL with 17 takeaways and are strong against the pass. Quarterback Matt Ryan had a rough start before the bye against Oakland but is completing nearly 68 percent of his passes while guiding the sixth-ranked scoring offense in the NFL.
LINE: Eagles -3, O/U: 43.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and a 95 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the north at 15 mph.
ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-3): Head coach Andy Reid is 13-0 after a bye week, the longest winning streak since bye weeks were introduced. But this time he has had to oversee a change on the defensive side of the ball after firing Juan Castillo and promoting Bowles from the secondary. The breakdowns on defense through the first six games were usually of the crushing variety, as Philadelphia squandered fourth-quarter leads in each of its last two setbacks. Castillo’s dismissal has helped deflect attention away from the offense during the bye. The Eagles rank 30th in the NFL in scoring offense despite sitting in the middle of the pack in yardage. Turnovers are the difference. Philadelphia’s minus-9 differential is at the bottom of the pack. Vick has been a big part of that and will be facing Atlanta for the third time since being released by the team following his arrest on dogfighting charges. The former face of the Falcons was knocked out with a concussion in the third quarter of last season’s meeting, a 35-31 loss on Sept. 18.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (6-0): Atlanta has benefited from a forgiving schedule and has had to eke out victories at home over Denver, Carolina and Oakland. Ryan threw all six of his interceptions in the three games before the bye but has done enough late in games to keep his team perfect in the win column. Ryan’s complement of targets will be a difficult test for Bowles and the Philadelphia secondary. Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Julio Jones each have four touchdown catches. The Falcons’ weak spot is one the Eagles have the capability to exploit - rushing defense. Atlanta has surrendered an average of 143.8 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground and will likely again be without tackle Corey Peters, who was removed from the reserve/non-football injury list but has not been activated.
* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Philadelphia.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Eagles’ last six home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Falcons’ last five games overall.
* Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
1. With a victory on Sunday, Atlanta coach Mike Smith would pass Dan Reeves (49) for the most wins in team history.
2. The Falcons overcame a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter of last season’s meeting as Ryan threw four TD passes.
3. Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has one TD. He led the NFL with 17 rushing scores in 2011.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
Giants at Cowboys: What Bettors Need to Know
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (1, 48)
The Dallas Cowboys seemed to make a statement with a season-opening win over the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Since then, it has been the Giants making the statements on the field. New York enters the rematch in first place in the NFC East and riding a three-game winning streak. Eli Manning pulled off his 24th career fourth-quarter comeback in a win over the Washington Redskins last Sunday but will be taking on a Cowboys secondary that is the strength of the defense.
That unit is coming off a strong performance against the Carolina Panthers but could be under more strain with linebacker Sean Lee’s absence weakening the front seven. Lee, the team’s leading tackler, was placed on injured reserve after undergoing surgery on his toe. Dallas will be trying to beat the Giants at home for the first time since opening its new stadium.
LINE: Giants -1, O/U 48
ABOUT THE GIANTS (5-2): New York has taken three straight at Cowboys Stadium and Manning is 5-2 in his last seven starts against the Cowboys. But one of those two setbacks came in the season opener, when the Giants were held to 269 total yards and the defense was burned for a pair of long touchdown passes by Tony Romo. Manning tried for some fourth-quarter magic and managed to cut it to 24-17 with a touchdown pass but could not get the ball back in the final 2:36. That would have been plenty of time for the Super Bowl MVP, who needed only two plays to hit Victor Cruz with the 77-yard game-winning touchdown last weekend. Manning threw for 400 yards at Dallas in 2011, leading a pair of touchdown drives in the final 3:41 to pull out the 37-34 triumph. The New York defense had some trouble with Robert Griffin III last Sunday and has struggled to keep Romo in the pocket in the past.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-3): A win on Sunday would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker in Dallas’ favor and give the team a much-needed momentum boost with back-to-back road games at Atlanta and Philadelphia looming over the next two weeks. If the Cowboys survive this stretch, they will have five of the final seven games at home to pad their playoff resume. The thought of a playoff berth was far from reality in Weeks 4 and 6, when Dallas sandwiched its bye week by allowing a combined 65 points to the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens. The Cowboys managed to tighten things up and get back to .500 against Cam Newton and the Panthers last Sunday, forcing a pair of turnovers and relying on Dan Bailey’s leg to win it. The loss of Lee could be crushing for the defense, which will shift Dan Connor into the starting lineup. Dallas could also be without starting running back DeMarco Murray, who has missed practice this week with a sprained foot.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 7-1 in Cowboys’ last eight vs. NFC opponents.
* Under is 5-0 in Giants’ last five road games.
* Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
1. Manning needs three touchdown passes to break Phil Simms’ franchise record of 199.
2. Felix Jones will start in place of Murray. Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar could also see carries for the Cowboys.
3. Romo has posted a passer rating over 100 in each of his last five games against New York.
Re: NFL Betting News and Notes Weeek 8
Sunday Night Football: Saints at Broncos
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6, 54.5)
There will be more footballs than oxygen in the thin air of Denver when the Broncos host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night. New Orleans, led by quarterback Drew Brees, has the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL, while Denver and Peyton Manning are fourth. The Saints have won two straight after an 0-4 start and welcome back interim coach Joe Vitt, who finished serving a suspension for his role in Bountygate. The Broncos enjoyed their bye week following a 35-24 comeback victory at San Diego on Oct. 15 and will try to take advantage of the Saints' NFL-worst defense which has allowed 2,793 yards through six games, the most in NFL history since at least 1950.
LINE: Broncos -6, O/U 54.5
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the west.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (2-4): Brees threw four touchdown passes in New Orleans' 35-28 victory at Tampa Bay last week. The Saints are trying to become the second team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to reach the playoffs after starting 0-4, but they'll have to become more balanced on offense. New Orleans is last in the league at 76.2 rushing yards per game. Remarkably, though, its one-dimensional attack hasn't led to Brees getting pummeled by opposing defenses. He has been sacked 12 times, tied for the eighth-lowest total in the NFL. Linebacker Jonathan Vilma, who is appealing his Bountygate suspension, played his first game last week after recovering from a knee injury and broke up a pass and had a knockdown.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-3): Manning, who has 14 touchdowns and four interceptions - three in the first quarter against Atlanta - has a passer rating of 105.0, well above his 95.2 career number. While Manning is the key to Denver making the playoffs, the secondary will likely determine whether the Broncos win Sunday. While 11-time Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey continues to play at the highest level, he will need plenty of help to slow down Brees and Co. Cornerback Tracy Porter, though, missed the San Diego game after experiencing light-headedness and a rapid heartbeat - symptoms he also felt prior to a seizure in August. Porter, who played four seasons with New Orleans (2008-11), has yet to receive clearance to play Sunday.
* Over is 5-0 in Saints’ last five road games.
* Over is 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 games overall.
* Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 8 games.
* Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.
* Over is 4-1 in Broncos’ last five games following a win.
1. Brees and Manning last met in Super Bowl XLIV on Feb. 7, 2010, when New Orleans defeated Indianapolis 31-17.
2. Aaron Kromer, who served as Saints interim coach with Vitt gone and suspended coach Sean Peyton sitting out the season, returns to his role as offensive line coach.
3. Denver leads the series 7-2 and has won three straight, including a 34-32 victory in the last meeting in 2008 when Brees was 39-of-48 for 421 yards and a touchdown.