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MNF Betting News and Notes 10/22

MNF Betting News and Notes 10/22

DETROIT (2 - 3) at CHICAGO (4 - 1) - 10/22/2012, 8:30 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit

Detroit at Chicago
Detroit: 10-1 Over away off a road win
Chicago: 4-17 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points

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Re: MNF Betting News and Notes 10/22

NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

The Detroit Lions off a dramatic come from behind 26-23 OT win over the Eagles cashing their first ticket of the campaign (1-4 ATS) face a far tougher road test in Chicago. Lions have an uphill battle in the Windy City against Bears intimidating defense allow a messily 14.2 points/game on 291.2 total yards. Not the best spot for Lions as they're ridding an 0-7 SU/ATS skid scoring <24 points/game, 1-7 (4-4 ATS) skid vs Chicago, 2-9 (6-5 ATS) slide in Bears back yard.

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Re: MNF Betting News and Notes 10/22

NFL Week 7

Lions (2-3) @ Bears (4-1) — Chicago’s four wins are all by 16+ points; their only loss was on very short week at Lambeau. Bears are 2-0 as home favorites this year, beating lesser foes by 20-17 points- since ’05, they’re 8-6 as a divisional home favorite. Bears already have 17 takeaways this year (+9), trait of Smith’s better teams. Undisciplined Lions have allowed six TD’s on defense/special teams; they won at Philly last week despite being penalized 16 times for 132 yards. Three of five Detroit games were decided by 4 or less points, with two of last three going OT; dogs covered four of their five games. Chicago won seven of last eight series games, winning last four here by average score of 33-19; Lions ended long series skid with home win LY. Bears won five of last six post-bye games, including win as an 8-point dog LY. Bears are averaging 4.8 explosive (20+ yards) plays per game; Lions allowed a total of three in their last two games.

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Re: MNF Betting News and Notes 10/22

Monday Night Football: Lions at Bears

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6, 47)

Coming off their bye week, the Chicago Bears attempt to extend their winning streak to four games and remain atop the NFC North when they host the division-rival Detroit Lions on Monday night. Chicago, which enters Week 7 with a half-game division lead over Minnesota, has outscored its opponents 98-27 over its last three contests. The Bears also are hoping to continue their dominance over Detroit as Chicago has won seven of the last eight meetings between the clubs.

The Lions are seeking their second consecutive victory as they are coming off a 26-23 overtime triumph in Philadelphia. Detroit scored 10 points in the final 3:32 of regulation and Jason Hanson kicked his fourth field goal of the game from 45 yards out to complete the comeback. The victory ended the Lions' three-game overall losing streak as well as their five-game skid against the Eagles.

LINE: Bears -6, O/U 47.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with a 55 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out of the south at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE LIONS (2-3): S Louis Delmas and CB Chris Houston each had an interception in last week's victory. They were Detroit's first two interceptions of the season. QB Matthew Stafford is seeking his third straight game with 300 yards passing. He threw for 311 yards in the win over Philadelphia. RB Joique Bell is proving to be a dangerous weapon out of the backfield as he is second among NFC running backs with 178 yards receiving.

ABOUT THE BEARS (4-1): QB Jay Cutler has faced the Lions six times while with Chicago, throwing 10 touchdown passes and just one interception in five victories. The Bears are the first team in NFL history to return an interception for a touchdown five times in its first five games. CB Charles Tillman and LB Lance Briggs have both brought back an interception for a score in each of Chicago's last two contests. Tillman (seven) and Briggs (five) have the most TDs off picks in club history. The Bears have returned an interception for a score in a franchise-high three consecutive contests. DE Julius Peppers has registered 10 sacks in eight meetings with the Lions.


* Over is 5-2 in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 7-1 in Bears’ last eight games following a win.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Lions’ last seven games overall.
* Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.


1. The Bears are 8-2 on Monday night under coach Lovie Smith.

2. Chicago RB Matt Forte has registered 975 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns in his last eight games against the Lions.

3. Last week, Detroit became the first team to win despite committing 16 penalties since Cincinnati was flagged 17 times in a triumph over Minnesota on Sept. 18, 2005.

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MNF - Lions at Bears
By Kevin Rogers

The Bears have put last season's disappointing December behind them as Chicago looks to take full control of the NFC North with a win on Monday night. The Lions head to Soldier Field trying to crawl back in the division race following a comeback victory at Philadelphia in overtime last Sunday.

Lovie Smith's club has lost only one game all season, coming at Green Bay back in Week 2. Since that defeat, the Bears are riding a three-game winning streak, including double-digit victories over St. Louis, Dallas, and Jacksonville. Prior to the bye week, the Bears dominated the Jaguars as six-point road favorites, putting up 38 second-half points in a 41-3 blowout. Chicago's defense continues to dominate by returning five interceptions for touchdowns in the past three weeks, contributing to consecutive 'overs' in the last two victories.

Detroit began this season with high expectations following a Wild Card appearance in 2011, but the Lions stumbled to a 1-3 start. Jim Schwartz's squad failed to cash in all four games in September, including three as a favorite against the Rams, Titans, and Vikings. The Lions finally broke through for backers in a 26-23 triumph over the Eagles in Week 6, as Detroit overcame a 10-point deficit to cash outright as 3½-point 'dogs. Detroit's offense put up 449 yards in the win, including 313 through the air from Matthew Stafford.

The Bears have owned the Lions over the last few seasons, beating Detroit in seven of the previous eight meetings. The only victory for Detroit in this stretch came last October at Ford Field, as the Lions improved to 5-0 with a 24-13 win as 6½-point favorites. Stafford tossed two touchdowns, while Jahvid Best's 88-yard touchdown scamper put the game away for Lions, who snapped a six-game skid to the Bears dating back to 2007.

Chicago rebounded a month later by routing Detroit, 37-13 as 2½-point 'chalk' on a late Sunday November afternoon at Soldier Field. The Bears received three non-offensive touchdowns, including an 82-yard punt return for a score by Devin Hester, while returning two Stafford interceptions for touchdowns. Chicago mustered only 216 yards of offense, but its defense kept Detroit out of the end zone until five minutes remaining in the contest.

Detroit has cashed the 'over' in two of three games away from Ford Field this season, while 'pushing' in a Week 2 loss at San Francisco. Chicago has eclipsed the 34-point mark in three of five games, including a 41-point spot in a season-opening blowout of Indianapolis. Three of the last four meetings in the Windy City have hit the 'over,' as Chicago's rout of Detroit last November went 'over' the 42½ point number posted.

In Smith's tenure as coach of the Bears, Chicago owns an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS mark in Monday night games, including the Week 4 rout at Dallas. The Bears have never lost a home Monday nighter under Smith, winning all three times, but the lone non-cover came as a favorite against Green Bay in 2008. Detroit is playing in only its second Monday night contest since 2008, with the other game coming in last season's 11-point win over Chicago.

Following a 5-1 ATS run against division foes in 2010, the Lions have covered only one of their last seven games inside the NFC North, including an 0-3 ATS record away from Detroit. Under Schwartz, the Lions have covered five consecutive times off a straight-up underdog victory, including outright wins at Tampa Bay and Miami back in 2010.

The Bears are listed as 6½-point favorites on Monday night, with the potential of the game moving to seven by kickoff. The total is set at 47, as the temperature will be in the low 60's with a 60% chance of rain. Things get started at 8:40 PM EST from Soldier Field as the game can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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MNF Preview
By Fairway Jay

The Bears (4-1) sit on top of the NFC North and enter this division battle off a bye and extra week of rest and preparation. Chicago has the situational edge playing at home off a bye while the Lions travel for the second-straight week and are looking up at three teams in the division as Detroit is 2-3. Gutsy win and rally by Detroit last week as they overcame 16 penalties and a 10-point deficit in the final 5+ minutes, tied the game on a last second-FG and won 26-23 in overtime. Note too that Detroit was off a bye and had their strongest ground game success of the season against a top-10 Eagles defense. 

This week it gets even tougher as the Bears defense is elite one of the league's best allowing 291 ypg and NFL-best 65 rushing ypg and 14 points per game. The Lions are clearly capable of passing the ball with QB Stafford and the one of the league's most feared offensive players in WR Calvin Johnson. Detroit averages a NFC-best 419 yards per game, but note that includes two overtime games and their 5.7 yards per play ranks #7 in the NFC while the Bears are average at 5.4 yards per play. But with Chicago able to stifle the run and take away the deep passing game with their cover-2 scheme most the game, the Lions will have to work the ball down the field with more patience and precision while avoiding mistakes and turnovers against the Bears aggressive defense that leads the league in takeaways at 3.4 per game and turnover margin at +1.8. Chicago has also forced opponents into the highest INT percentage (6.5%); a stat category they have dominated the past three seasons overall. 

Chicago is a methodical offense that prefers to run the ball under new offensive coordinator Mike Tice. They are average in yards per play (5.4) and average overall when compensated for the competition and schedule. The Bears are top-3 in time of possession, so while not as efficient, they do they control the ball, clock and chains while converting a solid 43% on third down. Detroit is converting a sub-par 34% on third down and should struggle more against the Bears top defense and especially if they face more 3rd and long situations. Despite out-gaining opponents by over 80 yards per game and above average from the line of scrimmage, Detroit has been out-scored by 2.2 points per game as their special teams have been among the very worst this season while the Bears have elite special teams units.

Bears running back Matt Forte has had solid success against the Lions with nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 8 games against Detroit. Quarterback Cutler has also posted some his strongest numbers against the Lions with 10 TD's and just 1 INT in six games vs. Detroit. But the Lions defense is better the past two seasons and balance on offense is key as the Bears passing game from QB Cutler becomes much more effective in play-action once the Bears ground game is established and going well with Matt Forte and Michael Bush. The Bears have a top-10 running game averaging 123 ypg and 4.1 ypr. Cutler had a horrible game at Green Bay but his stats are sub-par with a 7/7 TD/INT ratio, 57% completions and QB rating of 78.7. Cutler has a big-play WR in Brandon Marshall who is averaging 100 receiving ypg. But The Lions defense is improved and actually top-10 allowing 324 ypg and 96 yards per rush.

The bad blood in this division game should show itself as recall these teams were involved in a sideline-clearing fight on this field last year. Expect the defensive intensity to be high and watch the weather as showers and thunderstorms are becoming increasingly likely up to a 60% chance as game time nears Monday Night and winds up to 12 mph. Betting under the total of 47.5 is the preferred play and betting it early should get you the best number. 

Chicago has won 7 of the last 8 in this series including a 37-13 win at Soldier Field last November. Lions QB Stafford threw 63 passes and 4 INT's that game, and he won't be asked to try that again. Still, with the superior defense and special teams, stronger running game, situational edge and playing at home, the Bears will win and I forecast less scoring than expected.

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