Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Craig Davis

Free play of the day on the Ohio State Buckeyes over Purdue.

On November 12 last year in West Lafayette, Indiana, Ohio State thought it had scored the game-winning touchdown. Jordan Hall caught a 13-yard touchdown pass from Braxton Miller with 55 seconds remaining in the game. All OSU needed was a Drew Basil conversion kick.

It didn't happen.

You see... Purdue's Bruce Gaston blocked the extra-point try, leaving the game tied at 20 and eventually sending it to overtime. Big mistake for Ohio State... big mistake.

The Buckeyes got a 33-yard field goal from Basil for a 23-20 lead in the first possession of OT, but Purdue's Robert Marve scored on a 1-yard run on the Boilers' overtime possession to snag the win. It was a gut-wrenching experience for the Bucks and one that they surely haven't forgotten.

Revenge and redemption are clearly on their minds today.

After wins over Michigan State and Nebraska, the Buckeyes (7-0) are 2-0 this season against teams that defeated them last season as part of an uncharacteristic 6-7 season under Luke Fickell.

What's different this year? Urban Meyer. Is OSU the most talented team in the country? Of course not... but they have athletes and have bought into Meyer's system --- and it's working like a charm.

Purdue, winning last season, would make it three redemption wins in a row for the Buckeyes, when they win.

The one good thing about backing Ohio State is that you don't have to worry about Tressel ball. If Urban Meyer has a chance to score with 55 seconds left and you need 5 points for a cover, you should still like your chances. That's how much he wants to push these kids.

That fact alone would sell me.

Folks, this game won't be close. Take OSU as your free play of the day.

3♦ OHIO STATE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Scott Delaney

Taking a look at Saturday's free winner, I like the Oregon State Beavers minus the points versus the Utah Utes. Ranked eighth in the nation, I'm a little baffled at how low this number is, to be quite honest, as I see the Ducks being able to win this game by at least two touchdowns - if not three or four.

I know Utah has won four of the last five meetings, but this is the first time Utah has been in Corvallis since the 2007 season. And the Utes are likely in store for a raucous occasion and hostile crowd, as it's Homecoming for the Beavers.

Oregon State (5-0, 3-0 in Pac-12) is one of 12 Football Bowl Subdivision teams that remains undefeated, and I don't really think Utah (2-4, 0-3) is a threat to the Beavers, who would become bowl eligible with a win in this game.

The Beavers have one of the fiercest defensive units in the nation, ranking 45th in the nation overall. And while that may seem average, they enter the week fourth in the nation and first in the Pac-12 for rush defense, allowing 70 yards per game. Only Alabama (55.3 yds), Rutgers (60.8) and BYU (67.9) rank higher in the country.

That's going to spell trouble for one of the most lethargic offenses in the nation. Utah has the 114th-ranked offense out of 124 teams ranked in Football Bowl Subdivision. And the Utes - on the road for the second straight week and third time in four games - have lost three in a row.

And if and when they try to goto the air, the Utes will run into lockdown cornerbacks Jordan Poyer and Rashaad Reynolds, who are like glue in man-to-man coverage. They rank among the national leaders for passes defended (breakups and interceptions). Reynolds is tied for third in the nation, averaging two passes defended per game, while Poyer is ninth at 1.8.

On offense, the Beavers will be led by fourth-year senior Markus Wheaton and sophomore Brandin Cooks - of the most dangerous receiving duos in the nation. Cooks is second in the nation with 131.8 yards receiving per contest while Wheaton is 10th at 112.8 - only West Virginia can match the Beavers with two players in the top 10. Also, Cooks has 354 yards following his receptions or an average of nearly 71 yards per game, while Wheaton has 145 yards, an average of 29 yards per contest.

This is a complete mismatch guys. I want you playing the Beavers on Saturday night against Utah.

4♦ OREGON STATE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Chris Jordan

My complimentary winner for you is going to be the Northwestern Wildcats (6-1 SU/ATS) plus the points at home against the visiting the Nebraska Cornuskers (4-2/3-3) on Saturday.

Hey, I don't care what anyone says, a good nap never hurts anyone.

Apparently coach Pat Fitzgerald agrees, cause not only are his Wildcats breaking out their all-black uniforms, they'll also have a mandatory lights-out sleep session prior to taking the field at 12:30 p.m. Vegas time.

Apparently after seeing how sluggish his team came out for an even earlier start on Sept. 15 against Boston College, which led 10-9 in the second quarter, he realized the bump in kick time for that game affected his team's "snooze time."

Hey, who am I to argue, right?

Looking to gain the upper hand in the Big Ten Legends Division, this figures to be an epic clash in front of a sold-out Ryan Field Saturday. The Huskers are making their first appearance in Ryan Field in 82 years, having last visited Evanston for the 1931 season-opener. Roughly 30,000 Cornhuskers fans reportedly flocked to Madison, Wis., last year for Nebraska's first Big Ten game, so game officials are expecting an infusion of red in the visitors' side of the stadium.

I, personally, am expecting an infusion of energy from the Wildcats - a rested-Wildcats team I might add - as they enter play this week as the only Big Ten team to already have become bowl-eligible after earning their sixth win of the season at Minnesota last Saturday. The Wildcats are 10-2 in their last 12 regular season games dating to Oct. 29, 2011.

We're backing the Big Ten's No. 2 rush defense against a Huskers rushing attack that averages a Big Ten-best 292.0 ground yards per game. Conversely speaking, Nebraska's 91st nationally ranked rushing defense will be forced to contend with an NU ground game that ranks 18th nationally with 229.9 yards per contest.

I know the Huskers are in off a bye, but Northwestern has gone 2-0 in its first two games against Big Ten teams coming off an open date. And I might add, Nebraska might have had a better team last season, and the Wildcats went into Lincoln on Nov. 4, 2011 and pulled out a 28-25 win as a 17'-point underdog.

The Huskers roll into Evanston, IL on ATS losing skids of 1-5 in Big 10 play, 0-4 against winning teams and 0-5 on the highway. On the flipside, Northwestern rolls into this huge game on ATS win streaks of 4-0 at home, 4-1 after SU and ATS victories and 6-1 overall.

My early free pick for Saturday, the Northwestern Wildcats.

Now it's nap time.

2♦ NORTHWESTERN


My second free winner for Saturday is going to be the Duke Blue Devils plus the points at home against the North Carolina Tar Heels, in a crucial Atlantic Coast Conference clash.

Honestly, I have no clue what the oddsmakers are thinking in this game, the annual battle for the Victory Bell. The Blue Devils are 5-2 overall with a 2-1 mark in ACC play after losing to Virgina Tech, 41-20, last weekend. The Tar Heels, meanwhile, are 5-2 overall and 2-1 in league play after winning at Miami, 18-14.

Duke’s 5-1 start matches the third-best six-game opening to a season since the inception of the ACC in 1953, and with just one more win Duke will make its first bowl appearance since 1995.

And though I realize the Tar Heels have won eight straight, and 21 of the past 22 meetings, including last year’s 37-21 decision in Chapel Hill, this year's game at Wallace Wade Stadium figures to be huge.

North Carolina is ineligible for postseason football play this year due to NCAA violations, so I'm sure the Tar Heels are making this a bowl game in itself since it's its No. 1 rival. But the Devils are no slouch.

Truth be said, this is probably the best team Duke’s fielded since the ol' ball coach was roaming the sidelines. Steve Spurrier won the league back in 1989, and the Devils look every bit the part of another ACC title team. There are a lot of seniors, and a lot of returners that have been with this program the entire time during a rebuilding process and this would mark a huge win for the program.

If you haven't had a chance to watch the Devils play, you must to know just how in sync each unit seems to be. And what's different about this year's team, than in years past, is it truly believes it is going to win. That’s a credit to the coaching staff because head coach David Cutcliffe has everyone believing.

Again, one win away from going to a bowl game, and the Devils can get it done with a win over their arch-rivals.

Duke has outscored its opponents 247-192 this season and turns to the passing game behind a two-quarterback system (redshirt senior Sean Renfree and redshirt sophomore Anthony Boone). The Blue Devils have thrown for more 2,000 yards compared to just 778 rushing yards, and with the crowd fired up this week, you better believe the aerial attack is what's going to keep them inside this ludicrous number.

Take the 10-1/2 with the Devils.

3♦ DUKE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

OHIO STATE -17.5 over Purdue:  Allot of talk in the early part of the season was about how good the defense was of the Boilermakers, especially their defensive line, but this team comes in having been shredded in their last 3 games, allowing 529.3 ypg and 41 ppg over that stretch. During those 3 games this DL has been pounded for 288.7 ypg on the ground at 6.5 yards per pop.. Not good numbers at all when your about to face an Ohio State squad that has averaged 263.6 rushing ypg at 5.8 ypc on the year, including 309.3 ypg and 6.4 ypc in their last 3 games. Oh boy, will Braxton Miller and company have a field day in this one.  On the other side of the ball we have a Purdue squad that has averaged 386.5 ypg and 32.8 ppg on the year, but away from home they have struggled averaging just 288 ypg and 17 ppg. I know that OSU has struggled with their defense of late, but after allowing 49 points last week to Indiana you can bet that Urban Meyer will be looking for a much better effort from his stop troops in this one. Ohio State really has nothing to play for this year, but Urban is trying to build for the future. Last week they had a big lead vs Indiana and nearly lost in in the end, winning by just 3. He will make sure his team stays focused and play the entire 60 minutes. Purdue will not be let back in this one. Ohio State by 25+ points in this one.

4 UNIT PLAY

LOUISIANA TECH -30.5 over Idaho: Google News Play I have had the pulse of the La Tech Bulldogs this year and they have been very good to me. This is a team that has an unstoppable offense as they come in averaging 538.7 ypg and a whopping 53.8 ppg. Last week they took on a Texas A&M team that had a decent defense and put up 57 points on them. La Tech has now played and SEC Defense a Big 10 defense and an ACC defense and have averaged 51 ppg in the 3 games. So what will they do vs an Idaho team that has allowed 55.7 ppg in their last 3 road games. In that stretch they allowed 63 points to an LSU offense that is having offensive problems and last week they allowed 38 points to a Texas State team that was averaging just 18.8 ppg vs FBS foes prior to that game. Even more troubling for Idaho may be their offense as they were able to put up just 7 points on a Texas State team that had allowed 35 ppg vs FBS teams prior to that game. Overall the Vandals are 111th in total offense (315.5 ypg) and 121st in scoring 14.3. Even vs a soft defense like the Bulldogs I just don’t see Idaho putting up enough points to keep this one close. La Tech is off their first loss of the year and teams in that situation usually struggle, but not this time. La Tech can still have a special season and will now turn their sights to a WAC title, so I don’t expect them to let down here. This one just has blowout written all over it.

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

TENNESSEE +20 over Alabama:  We all know how god the Bama defense is, but after Michigan who have the really played? An Arkansas team that was without QB Wilson, Ole Miss, a Missouri team that was a using a backup QB and Backup center and a couple of Sun Belt squad. This defense hasn’ t has not been tested by the passing attack they will face this week. This Tennessee offense has a lot of pop as they have averaged 4872 ypg and 38 ppg on the year so far. In their last 3 games they have put up 510.3 ypg and 39.3 ppg and two of those games were on the road vs a couple of solid defenses in Georgia and Miss State.  The Vols have thrown for 299 ypg and should be able to move the ball on this untested Bama secondary. On defense the Vols are poor, but Bama is mostly a power running team, and that should eat clock and shorten the game which will not allow them to run away and hide in this one. The defense won’t keep this one close, but I believe it will be their offense that will have enough big plays to keep this one under the number. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play AGAINST Any team with a defense that allows 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 150 or less total yards in previous game. This play is 35-6 the last 10 seasons.


LSU -3 over TEXAS A&M: The Tigers of LSU showed a bit better offense last week vs a tough South Carolina defense.  They are off BB tough games vs South Carolina and Florida, but this is still a huge game because they are not out of the National picture race just yet. A loss here though would knock them out. The tigers do have Bama on deck but they do have a week off after this one, so they will be fully focused for the task at hand. The Aggies do have the advantage on offense, but are clearly out matched on the defensive sided of the ball and I believe that will cost them here big time. The Aggie defense ranks 73 overall and 111th vs the pass and that could have Mettenberger looking at a solid day. The Aggie offense is 6th in total offense and 5th in scoring offense, but in their only game vs a defense of this caliber (Florida), they were able to put up just 17 points (0 in second half) and just 334 yards. Now they face a Tigers defense that is 2nd in the nation in total defense (219.6 ypg), 2nd vs the pass (130.6 ypg) and 8th in points allowed (14 ppg). It will not be all that easy for A&M to move the ball in this game. The team with the better defense should win this game and that is clearly on the side of the Tigers. They have momentum from last weeks win over South Carolina and have a week off before Bama, so look for a focused effort from this squad as they win by at least a TD.


Stanford/ California Under 49: The Cal Bears are starting to play much better, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they have allowed just 17 points in each of their last 2 games. The Cal defense has allowed 403 ypg and 26.5 ppg at home this year, but they will be taking on a Stanford squad that pays very conservative on the road, thus not scoring many points. Stanford has had just 2 road games this year, but they were both big games (like this one) and that has them playing conservative and they have scored just 13 points in each of those games. Overall Stanford has scored 21 points or less in 4 of their 6 games. The Cal offenses is starting to come around again as they have put up 74 points in their last 2 games, but they will be going up against a very tough Stanford defense in this one. Stanford had one bad defensive game, but if you take out the 48 points they allowed vs Arizona (In OT) then they have allowed an average of just 16.2 ppg in their other 5 games. Both of these defense are in fine form right now and I don't expect allot of points in this one. Look for high 30's at best in this one.


South Carolina/ Florida Under 41: Google News Play Both of these defense are solid and really playing at a high level right now and that should keep the scoring down. The Florida Gators have one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing just 297 ypg and a mere 12.3 ppg on the year. They have also allowed just 2.2 ppg in the 3rd quarters this year and 1.7 ppg in the 4th, so their defense is even tougher in the second half of games. The South Carolina defense has also been very tough this year as they have allowed just 12.3 ppg on the year and for the first time in 11 games (dating back to last year) they allowed more than 20 points in the loss to LSU last week. Both teams like to run the ball and with two elite defenses I just don't see more than 35 points in this one. 


3 EXTRA POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY

Play AGAINST any CFB road faves if they have a win pct of .600 or less and are off an OT win in which they scored at least 24 points in that win. Teams in this spot are 3-17-1 ATS. Play ON Central Michigan +3.5 over Ball State.

Play AGAINST any college favorite who was 5-0 or greater, off its first loss of the year, if they were favored and allowed 35 or more points in the loss – and they won 9 or more games last season. Teams in this spot are 3-17 ATS. Play ON Kansas State +2.5 over WEST VIRGINIA

Over the last 3 seasons, Notre Dame has gone 11-1 to the Under if they allowed 14 points or less in their last game. Play Notre Dame/ BYU Under 40.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

John Ryan

Western Michigan vs. Kent State    
Play: Kent State

The simulator shows a high probability that Kent State will win this game by four or more points. Kent State as posted a 5-1 season record and have covered all the games they have won. They have won four straight to the number by a combined margin of 60 ½ points or slightly better than 15 points per game. Their first tow wins of this streak they were installed as dogs and now the line is just beginning to reflect the talent of this Kent State team. Still, the line is nowhere close to where this team has been playing and how they are improving on both sides of the ball each week. Last week they traveled to West Point and soundly defeated the Cadets of Army 31-17. In this game they set a season high gaining 283 rushing yards on 36 attempts. Western Michigan has had their problems defending the run this season allowing 278 rushing yards to Toledo and 168 last week to Ball State. Where WM has it’s issues is in the secondary where every team has complete at least 55% of their past attempts. Kent State is certainly a run-first offensive scheme, but this will set up big play through play action and read-option plays. I like Kent State to win this game easily.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Bob Balfe

Cincinnati -5

Toledo is really thin on defense and now have to play a much more talented team then what they have been facing in the MAC. Cincinnati does not have experience problems on defense as they field a defensive line with over 100 combined starts. Toledo has a couple of players that could play on Cincinnati, but other than that there is no comparison in talent level. Toledo has taken advantage of some INT returns and special team touchdowns in the last few weeks against weaker opponents. I do not see them getting easy points today. Cincinnati has better and more experienced players on both sides of the ball and should get the road win. Take the Bearcats.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

OC Dooley

Air Force -10.5

Last Saturday it was approaching midnight in the eastern time zone when New Mexico took the field on the island of Hawaii and promptly came away with a 35-23 triumph.  The Lobos have had little time to savor that victory as they stay on the road for a second consecutive week and had to fly a long way to reach the Air Force academy which is located in the state of Colorado.  Since military schools normally emphasize the run, it should come as no shock that Air Force has a low national ranking (#118) the passing department.  But visiting New Mexico throws the football even less averaging only 59 aerial yards per contest.  The biggest problem for the Lobos is a porous pass defense which i s ranked way down at #105 nationally.  In a victory against Wyoming last Saturday, quarterback Connor Dietz of Air Force actually burned the Cowboys with his arm.  Air Force shutout New Mexico by a 45-0 final count a year ago and the average margin of victory for the Flyboys in this series the past four seasons (26 points per pop) indicates that they will easily cover tonight’s spread. Dating back to the 2004 campaign Air Force is a resounding 7-1 ATS in this series

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

3G Sports

Rutgers vs Temple
Play: Rutgers

For Temple to win this game, obviously they cannot turn the ball over, with RB Montel Harris. They must to make each drive count, because Rutgers defense is shocking. Rutgers forces turnovers, led by Khaseem Greene and his 2 picks and 4 FF, so Temple will most likely play especially conservative in this game. Rutgers wins by playing drudging games, behind the running game of Jawan Jamison and his 26/carries gm. Rutgers defense is utterly talented enough to hold them to 14 or less.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Harry Bondi

San Diego State +6.5

In a game that pits two evenly matched teams, we'll take San Diego State, which has a huge edge on the defensive side of the ball and is catching a touchdown. The Aztecs average 38 points per game. QB Ryan Katz is getting better every week and likes to spread the ball around as five different receivers have 10 catches or more this season. Nevada can also put up points, but this will be, by far, the best rushing defense the Wolfpack has seen all season. The Aztecs rank 28th in country against the rush and will make the Nevada offense one-dimensional by limiting the production of RB Stefphon Jefferson, one of the leading rushers in the nation. Nevada continues to be overvalued on the betting market, going 2-5 ATS this season, including 0-3 at home, and it has been a money-eater the last three years in conference play, going a dismal 6-11 against the number. Let's take the points with San Diego State.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Ray Monohan

Utah +10

Determined to keep the winners rolling Saturday! Ray is ON FIRE in the NFL. (+953) 14-4 L18 78%. Overall Plays (+553) 22-15 L37 59%. Top 5 MLB Capper! Pad that bankroll today! The most selective capper online folks!

For Utah Travis Wilson made his first career start last weekend against UCLA and the freshman completed 23 of 33 passes for 220 yards and an interception in a 21-14 loss. He looked good, and will only get better. Utah WR Dres Anderson has been the team’s top target with 22 catches for 233 yards. He's going to have a busy day vs. Poyer and the OSU DB's.

Oregon State is shooting for a 6-0 mark for the first time since 1907 - and also trying to become bowl eligible the quickest in program history. Sean Mannion, the second-ranked quarterback in the Pac-12, remains sidelined after undergoing minor knee surgery last week. Cody Vaz will start for a second consecutive game.

If Utah wants to win, they’ll have to do it through the air which I think they can do against an over-confident Beavs team. Wilson has more than enough ability to run too. Option based offenses have burned the Beavers this season, so expect to see tons of it tonight.

Utes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss, and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game, and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. The Beavers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

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