Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nebraska Cornhuskers -6.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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As if getting its tail kicked 63-38 at Ohio State isn't enough motivation, Nebraska will be further fueled by last season's 28-25 home loss to Northwestern. Having had an extra week to prepare, there's no doubt the Huskers will be ready to exact revenge on the Wildcats.
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Northwestern is 6-1, but forgive me if I'm not sold. It only has one victory this season against a team that currently has a winning record. In fact, five of its wins have come against teams that are currently 2-4 or worse.
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Consider that Northwestern is just 4-12 ATS in home games when matched up against a team with a winning record under coach Pat Fitzgerald. It has lost by an average score of 33.5 to 22.9 in this situation.
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The Nebraska offense has been awesome. It is averaging 43.7 points on 507.3 yards per game and should have little trouble moving the football on a Northwestern stop unit that ranks 56th in the country in total defense.
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Nebraska's issue, at times, has been its defense, but I'm expecting its best defensive performance of the season to date in this highly motivated spot and following a bye week. The numbers are certainly in our favor as the Huskers are a perfect 7-0 ATS under coach Bo Pelini after giving up 17 points or more in the first half in two consecutive games. They have won by an average score of 37.6 to 19.6 in this situation. Lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Alex SmartFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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North Carolina vs. DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke has fielded what I believe is their best team in a long time, and are not easily manhandled by any opponent, including what my own power rankings suggest is a good but greatly over rated North Carolina side with a new coaching staff. Duke has played North Carolina tough in the recent past as five of the last eight games have been decided by eight points or less. Final notes & Key Trends: Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan State Spartans +9.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Spartans are being undervalued here against against a Michigan team with no impressive wins. Michigan State's win over Boise State and one-point loss to Ohio State are more impressive than anything the Wolverines have done this season. The Spartans have won 4 in a row against their in-state rivals. All 4 wins have come by at least 6 points and 3 of them have come by a minimum of 14 points. The Wolverines would like nothing more than to end this skid, but it won't be easy because Michigan State is one of the best defensive teams in the country. It ranks 7th in total defense, giving up just 270.1 yards per game. It also ranks 13th in scoring defense, allowing only 15.7 points per game. Michigan's bread and butter is its running game but stopping the run is what the Spartans do best. They rank 8th in the nation against the run with 91.3 yards allowed per game. The Spartans will get enough stops to keep this one within the generous number.

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BYU +14FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After improving to 6-0 with a 20-13 overtime victory over rival Stanford last week, this is a huge letdown spot for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have a road game at Oklahoma on deck, so this is certainly a trap game for them. The Cougars are 4-3 this season, but two of their losses have come by a combined four points, so this team is certainly better than its record. BYU has the type of defense that will keep it competitive Saturday for four quarters. The Cougars rank 5th in the country in total defense (260.9 YPG), including 3rd against the run (67.9 YPG). Notre Dame hasn't been able to throw the ball with any kind of consistency this season as it is just 86th in passing offense (206.5 YPG). This is not a very good matchup for the Irish at all, and having to win by two touchdowns is simply asking two much in what will be a defensive battle similar to the Stanford game. BYU is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons. Notre Dame is 5-20 ATS versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. Take BYU and the points.

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Joseph D'AmicoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas State vs. West Virginia
Play: Kansas StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas State is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS while WV is 5-1 SU and 2-4 against the number. The Wildcats are alone in 1st place in the BIG 12 while the Mountaineers were exposed LW in their 49-14 beat down at the hands of the Red Raiders. With a strong showing here, K State QB, Collin Klein will be in the Heisman hunt along with West Virginia's Geno Smith. Klein has a 66.9% CR, 1074 YP and another 510 YR, accounting for 17 scores. I give State a big edge on the ground here, which means they keep Smith and his offense off the field by controlling the clock. On defense, the Mountaineers have allowed 157 points in their 3 BIG 12 contests. The Wildcats are more physical and will take note of how Texas Tech held the WV offense to just 14 pts LW. The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS their L5 Conference games, 1-4 ATS their L5 games played at home, and 1-4 ATS their L5 games played vs. teams with a winning record. The Wildcats are 19-6-1 ATS their L26 Conference games, 6-1-1 ATS their L8 games played on the road, and 5-2-1 ATS their L8 games played against teams with a winning record.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

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Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Expect no letdown from Iowa following last week's double-overtime win at Michigan State. The Hawkeyes have had Penn State's number, and they'll be hungry to avenge last season's loss in Happy Valley. Iowa has won 8 of the last 10 meetings against Penn State, including 4 in a row at home. One thing the numbers tell us is that you don't have to be scared of Iowa in the small chalk at home. That's because it is on a 13-4 ATS run as a home favorite of 7 points or less, winning by an average of 13.6 points in this spot. RB Mark Weisman could miss the game, but I still like Iowa laying this small number because of how strong it has been defensively. The Hawkeyes rank 20th in the nation in both total and scoring defense, giving up 317.2 yards and 17.2 points per game. The stop unit gets better and better each week. Penn State has yet to see a defense as talented and as physical as Iowa's this season, and it will show. Lay the points as Iowa continues its dominance of the Nittany Lions.

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Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Stanford vs California
Pick: CaliforniaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Stanford has a Top 25 ranking, but this team is winless on the road...and this is no ordinary game, a rivalry Pac 12 contest. The Cardinal is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, and they come off a heart breaking loss at Notre Dame on the final play. In fact, they are off consecutive overtime games, a wild 54-48 game against Arizona, and now a crushing loss at Notre Dame. This Cal team has won 2 in a row and the offense has been smoking under QB Zach Maynard, scoring 43 and 31 the last two games. The Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games. And in this rivalry game the Cardinal is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Play Cal!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Tony George

Virginia Tech +8.5

Frank Beamer and Beamer Ball in serious trouble of going 4-4 on the season with a loss here.  Clemson beat the daylights out of VT last year twice, once in the ACC Championship, and VT has had this one circled all all year.  I am not laying 8.5 points with Clemson when they are allowing 37 ppg on defense against ACC opponents YTD.  With QB Logan playing better, and the Hokies back against the wall, I am taking the points here as VT will pull out all the stops here to win this.  I expect a supreme effort and while Clemson's offense is prolific, I expect Bud Foster to throw everything including the kitchen sink at them here.  VT makes a stand, grab the generous points here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Larry Ness

South Carolina vs. Florida
Pick: Florida

The Ol’ Ball Coach heads back to “The Swamp” on Saturday afternoon, as his 9th-ranked Gamecocks take on the 3rd-ranked Gators (No. 2 in the 1st BCS standings!). The game comes a week after South Carolina saw its perfect 2012 season end in LSU’s version of “Death Valley,” last Saturday night (also ended South Carolina’s school-record 10-game winning streak). The Gamecocks were 6-0 after a 35-7 win over Georgia on Oct 6 but were dominated by LSU last Saturday, despite a 23-21 final. South Carolina’s first two TDs were set up by a long INT return and a long punt return plus its final score was of the ‘backdoor’ variety, coming with 1:41 left. Florida is 5-0 in the SEC East and South Carolina 4-1. The winner is in great shape to represent the East in the SEC championship game. South Carolina has just one SEC championship game appearance (got CRUSHED 56-17 by Auburn in 2010), while Florida has made the most SEC championship appearances (10) but hasn't played for the title since Tim Tebow and the then No. 1 Gators were upended 32-13 by No. 2 Alabama three years ago. Florida (6-0) is off to its best start since that team opened 12-0, and it’s quite an improvement over Will Muschamp's first season (Gators were just 7-6 in 2011). The Gators rank 6th in the nation in points allowed (12.3 PPG) and 13th in yards allowed (297.2 YPG) with its defense really shining in the second half. Florida has outscored its opponents 98-23 in the second half this season! South Carolina has won TWO straight over Florida with its 2010 win at Gainesville ending an 0-12 losing streak in “The Swamp.” The Gamecocks will NOT make it three straight wins over the Gators. Lay the small spot with Florida.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Steve Merril

Louisiana State vs. Texas A&M
Pick: Texas A&M

Texas A&M blew a big lead and barely held on for a 59-57 win versus Louisiana Tech last week.  Normally, that might leave a team flat, but Texas A&M should remain focused this week at home against a Top 10 opponent like LSU. Most of the offensive damage last week was done by Louisiana Tech's passing attack (450 yards) as Texas A&M allowed just 3.9 yards per rush on the ground.  Overall this season, the Aggies are permitting just 3.3 yards per carry (versus opponents that average 4.3 ypr), so Texas A&M's strong rush defense matches up well against LSU's run-based offense that rushes the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this season.  LSU lacks a consistent passing attack and is the reason why they have struggled on the road this season, going 0-2 ATS.  In fact, LSU has thrown for 169 yards or less in three of their past four games, going 0-4 ATS overall during that span.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Rocketman

Colorado at Southern
Play: Southern Cal -40

The Colorado Buffaloes travel to take on the Southern Cal Trojans on Saturday. Colorado is 1-5 SU overall this year while Southern Cal comes in with a 5-1 overall record on the season. Colorado is allowing 494.2 yards per game overall this year and I expect Southern Cal to get every bit of that and then some. Colorado is allowing 41.3 points per game overall this year and 41.7 points per game on the road this season. Southern Cal is scoring 32.3 points per game overall this year and 38 points per game at home this season. Southern Cal is allowing only 9.5 points per game at home this season. Colorado is 2-12 ATS last 3 years on the road. Colorado is 1-10 ATS last 11 games on grass. Colorado is 6-19-1 ATS last 26 games after a SU loss of 20 points or more. Colorado is 8-21 ATS last 29 games on the road against a team with a winning home record. Matt Barkley and Southern Cal will blow out Colorado here in this one. We'll recommend a small play on Southern Cal tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Rob Vinciletti

Army vs. Eastern Michigan    
Play: Eastern Michigan

Eastern Michigan fits a nice system that plays on winless home dogs at this juncture of the season. We also want to play against an Army team that is 1-8 to the spread as a road favorite and 2-7 vs MAC teams. The Cadets have played 2 road games and allowed 40+ plus in both games. Eastern Michigan has covered 4 of the last 5 as a home dog of 3 or less. They are off back to back home losses and finally woke up offensively last week. Look for Eastern Michigan to get the cash on Saturday.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Dave Cokin

Kansas State vs West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia

Kansas State gets more out of its talent than any team in the country. But this is still a very difficult trip into an ultra-hostile environment and the Mountaineers are off an utter humiliation. I'll have to back West Virginia to drop the Wildcats from the ranks of the unbeaten.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

SPORTS WAGERS

TEXAS A&M +3½ -105 over LSU

LSU has played two road games this season. At Auburn on Sept 22 they won 12-10. Two weeks ago at Florida, they lost 14-6. Last week, hosting South Carolina, they won 23-21. The Tigers will now play its third straight contest against a quality opponent and that takes a toll. The real kicker here is that they will host #1 Alabama next week and that figures to take quite a bit of focus off this one. In terms of situational betting, it doesn’t get much better than this for the Aggies.

QB Johnny Manziel and the Aggies have exactly the kind of offense that can capitalize on a defense that has to be a little gassed after back-to-back intense games. Unlike the Tigers, Texas A&M has a nothing game on deck next week, meaning all their focus is on the visiting Tigers. LSU doesn’t blow out quality teams. They are a methodical, low scoring club that plays field position and relies on the opposition to make mistakes. At its best, LSU can’t be trusted laying 3½ road points. With the Crimson Tide on deck next week in the biggest game of the year, the Tigers are more likely to be off their game than the Aggies. 


Indiana +123 over NAVY

The Hoosiers won their opening two games but have dropped four in a row to drop to 2-4 on the season. On paper that record doesn’t look so good but a close look reveals four losses in a row to four very good football teams in Ball State, Northwestern, Michigan State and Ohio State. Three of those four losses were by four points or less.

Indiana's offense has taken flight in Kevin Wilson's second season, scoring 76 points the past two weeks against the Spartans and Buckeyes. Indiana is on the right track. They are much more battle tested than the Midshipmen and they appear to be incredibly well prepared each and every week. Against Ohio State they were a 19-point pooch and against Michigan State they were getting 15 points. They could have won both. The Hoosiers are hungry for a win and take a huge step down in class here.

By comparison, Navy was a 14½-point dog against Notre Dame on a neutral field and lost 50-10. They also lost at Penn State 34-7 and didn’t score a single point in a 12-0 loss to San Jose State. One of Navy’s three wins came against Virginia Military Institute. Now we get to take back a tag with the far superior team coming off four losses? Pencil us in. 


TOLEDO +193 over Cincinnati

This is an angle we always look out for in that the Bearcats crossed the threshold this week and moved into the National rankings for the first time at #21. With that comes some extra accolades, more recognition and most importantly of all, an inflated price. The Bearcats 5-0 record comes after playing four cupcakes and a completely disorganized Pitt team in the season opener. They barely got by a weak Virginia Tech team and last week against FCS opponent Fordham, they were given a bit of a scare with a small lead for the entire first half before breaking it open in the second half. Against Delaware State, the Bearcats scored three points in the second half and won 23-7.

The Rockets lost all-purpose superstar Eric Page to graduation but are still explosive behind triplets Terrance Owens, Bernard Reedy and David Fluellen. This is a high-powered attack that will hit some long gainers on an aggressive Cincinnati defense susceptible to the big play. Toledo has had some big-time performances in the past and logged near-misses against Ohio State last season and Arizona in OT in this year's opener. The Glass Bowl is a tough place to play, especially at night, and this is Cincinnati's first true road game of the season.

It wouldn't surprise us to see Cincinnati struggle to handle its success. The Bearcats have a big game with Louisville on deck, they don’t deserve this billing, as they have really not proved anything yet other than they can beat some third-tier college football teams. Rockets outright.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Joe Gavazzi

Texas A&M +3.5

This is a very tough situation for an LSU team who just blew a halftime lead at Florida 2 weeks ago before holding off South Carolina last week (23-21). After facing those ground oriented teams, they must now face the best spread offense they will encounter all season. Yes, this price has dropped significantly because of a net-129 AFP favoring LSU. I don't believe it's enough. QB Mettenberger has yet to emerge in a way that can provide offensive balance for the Tigers. Should they fall behind it would be a huge task to catch up. That could well happen against an underrated Aggies rush defense that allows 125/3.3. It's the ideal remedy to slow the Tiger ground game. When last we left our top rated play on the Aggies, they were blowing a 34-7 lead vs. La Tech when their thoughts began to turn to this matchup. The ensuing win (no cover) was costly last week, but at least maintains home dog value for this. No doubt, "Johnny Football" will find the going a bit harder than against any foe he has faced this year since the Aggies opening week loss on this field 20-17 to Florida. The Aggies offense with a combination of HC Sumlin/QB Manziel has grown by leaps and bounds since that 1st game. Not really a surprise to this bureau if LSU is exposed when being unable to play from behind against a team with a good run defense and balanced explosive offense. Many Aggie players still remember the 2010 Bowl loss to LSU. It's REVENGE TIME.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Andy Iskoe

TCU +1.5

These former members of the old Southwest Conference have been reunited in the Big 12 as TCU is now a member along with West Virginia, the team that Texas Tech just routed at home last week 49-14, ending WVU's unbeaten season. It was a nice win for Tech that followed their lone defeat of the season when they were routed at home by Oklahoma a week earlier. TCU also rebounded from its lone loss a week earlier to Iowa State with a most impressive rout on the road at Baylor. Though not at the level of the past few seasons, TCU is still strong on defense. Tech actually has the better defensive stats but those were largely accumulated against 3 very weak teams to start the season. Clearly Tech is improved but it may be a bit early to favor them on the road against a team that's been as consistently successful and well coached as has TCU. The Horned Frogs are 41-4SU at home since 2005 and are a home underdog for the first time in this time frame. Their home loss to Iowa State 2 weeks ago came amid unusual circumstances as their starting QB was suspended 48 hours before the game. TCU pulls the mild upset.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Charlie Scott

Baylor vs. Texas
Play: Under 79.5

High total which is down from 80, but will probably go back up. Texas's defense has highly recruited athletes, but has struggled the last couple of weeks. With Texas starting QB out and McCoy in look for Texas to run the ball and throw short intermediate passes and try to use game clock to keep Baylor's offense off the Field. PLAY UNDER betting Over any Total in the 80's is for squares !

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Chuck O'Brien

It's Homecoming Weekend in Kent, Ohio, and the Golden Flashes are going to be all riled up for Western Michigan's visit. And with all that rile, should be plenty of confidence, as the Golden Flashes have won seven straight games against teams currently in the Mid American Conference. And dating back to Oct. 29, 2011, Kent State has won nine of its last 11 games overall.

And it's hard to ignore how well this offense is clicking, as the Flashes have totaled 604 rushing yards over their last two games. The Flashes have surpassed 400 yards of total offense four times, a feat only reached once last year. And talk about protecting the football, Kent State did not turn the ball over last week at Army and raised its season turnover margin to plus-10.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are coming in off a tough overtime loss at Ball State after blowing out UMass 52-14. And while I know the Bronco passing offense ranks 39th in the nation, averaging 263.7 yards per game, and WMU ranks second in the MAC in total defense, allowing 369 yards per game, but I don't think it can match offensive wits with Kent State in this one. Especially since the Bronos are 0-3 on the road this season.

Since the beginning of the 2010 season, Kent State has gone 10-4 at home. It's in on additional ATS runs of 5-0 at home, 9-0 on turf, 4-1 versus losing teams, 7-1 in conference play, 6-2 in the month of October. and 4-0 overall. On the other hand, we have a Western Michigan team that is in on ATS slides of 1-4 in the month of October, 3-10 when visiting teams with a winning home mark and 0-4 on the road.

Lay the points with Kent State, and be sure you're laying ONLY a field goal. I know there are a majority of 3-1/2s out there, so be sure you buy the half point down and lay only -3 points with the Golden Flashes.

5♦ KENT STATE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Matt Rivers

38-23 free play run heading into Saturday's action.

Free play winner for Saturday is the Georgia Bulldogs as the heavy chalk in Lexington this afternoon versus the door-mat Wildcats.

Kentucky is just one bad team this season - only lightning could prevent them from taking another spread loss last week versus Arkansas! The Wildcats are now on a five game losing streak, and are 1-6 straight up this year while failing to cover in any of their lined losses.

Georgia has had an extra week to stew over their 35-7 trouncing at South Carolina, and they do have their annual "Cocktail Party" game with Florida up next, but I expect Aaron Murray and his cast of receivers to have a huge day against the injury-riddled Wildcats secondary.

UGa has covered five of their last seven when listed as the away favorite, while UK is only 6-14-1 against the line their last 21 home conference dates.

Forget the fact the Bulldogs have failed four of the last five in this series against the number, this one has blowout written all over it.

Georgia to name it here!

4♦ GEORGIA

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday October, 20

Jeff Benton

Your Saturday freebie is the Colorado Buffaloes plus a million points in Los Angeles against the underachieving Trojans of Southern Cal.

Lane Kiffin? How about more like "LAME" Kiffin, as USC is a money-burning 1-5 against the spread this season. The Trojans five wins have come against teams that are collectively 4-16.

USC ranks dead last in all of college football in penalties,105th in tackles for loss allowed, and 116th in third down conversion percentage. Nice job Lane!!!!....with all that talent???

While it is true that Colorado has been god-awful, I still feel the price on this game is way out of line. Laying 40 or 41 points is more like a Pete Carroll spread than a Lame Kiffin spread.

Calling for the Buffs will grind out 2 touchdowns as the Trojans get lazy towards the end of the game and fail to cover this monster impost. Call it USC 52-14 over Colorado.

1♦ COLORADO

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