MLB Betting News and Notes Monday 10/8

MLB Betting News and Notes Monday 10/8

NLDS Betting Preview: Nationals at Cardinals
By Covers.com

Washington Nationals (-105, 7.5) at St. Louis Cardinals

Washington leads series 1-0

The Washington Nationals and the St. Louis Cardinals combined to leave 20 runners on base in Game 1 of the National League Division Series. It seemed like the only player that didn’t leave anyone on was Tyler Moore, whose go-ahead two-run single gave the Nationals the lead and eventually a 1-0 lead in the series.

The Cardinals have not lost back-to-back games since Sept. 14-15 and will attempt to even the series when they host Game 2 on Monday. St. Louis totaled just three hits in Game 1 but still had the lead in the eighth inning before an error by shortstop Pete Kozma began a two-run rally, capped by Moore’s single. The Cardinals lost the first game of both the NLDS and the NLCS on the road last season before bouncing back to take Game 2.

This time, however, St. Louis is starting with the first two games at home before finishing with three straight in Washington. The Nationals have held opponents to two runs or less in four straight games dating back to the regular season and have a chance to grab a commanding 2-0 lead behind Jordan Zimmermann.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow south at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals LH Jaime Garcia (7-7, 3.92 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Jordan Zimmermann (12-8, 2.94)

Garcia missed over two month during the regular season with a shoulder strain but hit his stride down the stretch, going 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA over his last four starts. The left-hander struck out 21 and issued only four walks in that span. Garcia struggled at Washington on Aug. 30, getting pounded for six runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings to absorb the loss. Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth both homered off Garcia in that game. He is 2-1 with a 3.74 ERA in four career starts against the Nationals and went 0-2 with a 4.21 ERA in five starts during the 2011 postseason.

Zimmermann was equally dominant down the stretch, going 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in his last five turns. The 26-year-old’s final start came against St. Louis on Sept. 29, and he allowed three runs on seven hits in 6 1/3 innings without factoring in the decision. That was a much better effort than his Sept. 1 turn against the Cardinals, when Zimmermann was lit up for eight runs and eight hits in just 3 2/3 innings. He surrendered home runs to David Freese and Matt Holliday in that turn and is 0-2 with a 9.12 ERA in five career starts against St. Louis.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in Zimmermanns last four starts vs. Cardinals.
* Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
* Nationals are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis.
* Nationals are 8-24 in the last 32 meetings in St. Louis.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Washington franchise had not won a playoff game since the Montreal Expos took Game 3 of the 1981 NLCS.

2.Neither team recorded an extra-base hit in Game 1, the first time that had happen in a playoff game since the Atlanta Braves beat the New York Mets 1-0 on Oct. 15, 1999.

3. Freese went 2-for-4 on Sunday, bumping his career postseason average to .391 (27-for-69).

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Re: MLB Betting News and Notes Monday 10/8

ALDS Betting Preview: Yankees at Orioles
By Covers.com

New York Yankees (-115, 9) at Baltimore Orioles

New York leads series 1-0

The New York Yankees look to take a commanding lead in their American League Division Series against the Baltimore Orioles when the division rivals square off in Game 2 at Camden Yards on Monday.

The AL East champion Yankees drew first blood Sunday night, rallying for five runs in the ninth inning against Orioles closer Jim Johnson en route to a 7-2 triumph in a series opener whose start was delayed nearly 2 1/2 hours by rain.

Russell Martin snapped a 2-2 tie by leading off the ninth with a home run off Johnson, who led the major leagues with 51 saves in the regular season. New York, which registered five of its 10 hits against Johnson, improved to 7-3 at Camden Yards this year. Baltimore held a 2-1 lead before surrendering six unanswered runs. It kept the red-hot Robinson Cano in check until the ninth as he went 0-for-4 before hitting a two-run double. Cano finished the regular season on a 24-for-39 tear.

WEATHER: There is a 36 percent chance of rain in Baltimore. Temperatures will dip into the high 40s. Winds are expected to blow west at 2 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees LH Andy Pettitte (5-4, 2.87 ERA) vs. Orioles LH Wei-Yin Chen (12-11, 4.02)

The all-time leader with 19 postseason victories, Pettitte was better than expected as he returned from his one-year retirement. The 40-year-old, who made only 12 starts, tossed 11 scoreless innings over his first two starts following a broken fibula before allowing three runs in 5 2/3 frames of a loss at Toronto on Sept. 29. Pettitte has dominated the Orioles over his career, going 27-6 with a 3.52 ERA in 42 games - including two relief appearances.

Chen began his first major-league season strong, winning his first four decisions while allowing two earned runs or less in six of his first seven starts. The 27-year-old native of Taiwan went 0-4 over his final seven outings but yielded more than three earned runs only twice during that stretch. Chen was 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA in four starts against the Yankees, surrendering a total of 11 runs in 11 1/3 frames in losing consecutive outings on Sept. 1 and Sept. 7.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Baltimore.
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Pettittes last four road starts vs. Orioles.
* Yankees are 4-1 in Pettittes last five road starts vs. Orioles.
* Yankees are 19-7 in Pettittes last 26 starts vs. Orioles.
* Under is 8-3-1 in Pettittes last 12 starts vs. Orioles.
* Yankees are 23-9 in the last 32 meetings in Baltimore.
* Yankees are 56-24 in the last 80 meetings.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Pettitte recorded the win against Baltimore at Camden Yards in the clinching Game 5 of the 1996 AL Championship Series.

2. New York (245) and Baltimore (214) were the top two teams in the major leagues in home runs during the regular season but combined for one blast in the series opener.

3. Yankees LF Ichiro Suzuki enters Game 2 with a 20-game hitting streak at Camden Yards.

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MLB Playoffs

Zimmerman got crushed by Cardinals Sept 1 (8 runs in 3.2 IP), but since then is 3-0, 2.61 in his last five starts; he allowed three runs in 6.1 IP against St Louis in his last start Sept 29. JGarcia is 3-0, 2.29 in his last five starts; he lost 8-1 to Washington August 30, giving up six runs in 5.1 IP. Other than Detroit-Oakland series, road teams are 6-0 in playoffs so far this week. Washington is 5-3 vs Cardinals this year, with home side 5-3 in those games; six of the eight games went over total.

Bronx is 7-3 in Camden Yards this year, road team is 13-6 in series games this season. Over is 5-0-1 in last six series games. Pettitte is 2-1, 1.62 in his three starts since coming back from injury- he didn't pitch against Orioles this year, and any previous records aren't really relevant, since he was a much different pitcher back then. WChen is a rookie who is 0-4, 6.06 in his last six starts, so he may have run out of gas a little late in year. He is 1-2, 6.38 in four starts vs Bronx Bombers this season.

Armadillosports.com

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WASHINGTON (99 - 64) at ST LOUIS (89 - 75) - 4:35 PM

JORDAN ZIMMERMANN (R) vs. JAIME GARCIA (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-3 (+2.0 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.7 Units)

JORDAN ZIMMERMANN vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
ZIMMERMANN is 0-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 9.12 and a WHIP of 1.714.
His team's record is 2-3 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-4. (-3.7 units)

JAIME GARCIA vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
GARCIA is 2-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.74 and a WHIP of 1.754.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)


NY YANKEES (96 - 67) at BALTIMORE (94 - 70) - 8:05 PM

ANDY PETTITTE (L) vs. WEI-YIN CHEN (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 9-10 (+3.1 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
10 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.4 Units)

ANDY PETTITTE vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
PETTITTE is 22-6 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.422.
His team's record is 23-11 (+6.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 15-18. (-3.9 units)

WEI-YIN CHEN vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
CHEN is 1-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.25 and a WHIP of 1.125.
His team's record is 1-3 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.4 units)


WASHINGTON vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home

NY YANKEES vs. BALTIMORE
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games


Washington at St. Louis
Zimmermann: 6-0 Over on Mondays
Garcia: St. Louis 17-9 SU in October

NY Yankees at Baltimore
Pettitte: 15-3 TSR pitching off a team win
Chen: 9-4 Under vs. division opponents

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MLB Playoff Odds and Picks
By: The Linemakers   
Sportingnews.com

Odds and analysis for Monday's LDS games. Today's slate features Nationals-Cardinals Game 2 (4:37 p.m. ET) and Yankees-Orioles Game 2 (8:07 p.m. ET). Both games are on TBS. Odds are from the LVH SuperBook as of 11:00 am. ET.

Nationals at Cardinals, Game 2 (Washington leads, 1-0)

Line:
Cardinals -110

Total: 7.5 under -125

The story of Game 1, a 3-2 Nationals win, on Sunday was the shadows produced by the odd start time combined with the earlier sunset. Hitters had a difficult time seeing the movement on the ball and were guessing more than usual. Game 2 starts a little later in the day than yesterday’s game, but players will still have the shadows to deal with, which should be a great motivator to bet the UNDER.

If the shadows aren’t enough of a reason to side with the UNDER, then maybe the recent resumes of today’s starting pitchers will be final piece of convincing needed.

The Nats have won Jordan Zimmermann’s past five starts, including his last two on the road. Over the five- game stretch, he allowed two runs or less in four times and three runs in the other outing. That last start was a 6-4 win at St. Louis on Sept. 29.

The Cards’ Jaime Garcia is almost as hot as Zimmermann, having won his past three starts, allowing only five runs combined between them. He had gone through a bad tail spin when coming off the disabled list in August, but he’s finally looking like the reliable pitcher from last season. He’s traditionally been a better pitcher at home than on the road. He’s won his past three home starts, and his home ERA of 2.82 is 2.20 runs lower than it is on the road.

Game 2 should have the same type of flow as Game 1. The Nats get the edge because Zimmermann has been a little more dominant than Garcia.

Prediction: Nationals, 4-2


Yankees at Orioles, Game 2 (New York leads, 1-0)

Line:
Yankees -135

Total: 8 under -110

Most experts felt the Orioles would falter down the stretch of the regular season because of starting pitching. That type of commentary was heard from May through September, and now in the postseason, we’re going to hear more of it for at least the next two games. The Orioles got away with Joe Saunders in the Wild Card game, and they got a terrific outing out of Jason Hammel in Game 1, but there may be no way to hide from Wei-Yin Chen today.

Chen lost his last two regular-season starts, allowing nine runs (six earned) combined. The Yankees went 3-1 against him this season, including tagging him with two September losses. His last start against the Yanks (Sept. 9) saw him give up seven runs in less than five innings.

Andy Pettitte has been sensational in his three starts since coming off the DL. He’s only given up three runs combined in the three starts. Perhaps more important is the swagger he carries with him in the postseason. He’s 19-10 with a 3.83 ERA in 42 career postseason starts.

Prediction: Yankees, 7-4

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