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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Jeff Benton

Free play winner on Miss State yesterday, now an 11-4 free play run.

Your Sunday freebie is to back the road underdog Titans plus the near touchdown at Minnesota this afternoon.

Give Minny coach Leslie Frazier credit, as Minnesota has matched their win total from all of last season through the first four weeks of the season this year. The Vikes enter at 3-1 straight up, and second-year quarterback Christian Ponder has yet to throw a pick this season (only NFL starter to lay claim to that stat after four weeks by the way!), but Ponder has not been able to engineer too many touchdowns, as both of Minnesota's scores last week came on special teams - kick-off and punt return TD's.

Veteran Matt Hasselbeck figures to be a little sharper than he was last week when he came off the bench for the injured Jake Locker, so count on Tennessee to come up with a few more points this time around.

Minnesota has been a money-burner when installed as the favorite as they are 0-2 in that role this season, and just 1-7 overall in that role since Frazier took over at the start of last season.

No doubt this is a game the Vikings should win, but is it a game they can cover? I don't think so.

Take the Titans plus the points.

2♦ TENNESSEE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Chris Jordan

My free winner for Sunday takes me to Minneapolis, where I am playing the Minnesota Vikings over the visiting Tennessee Titans, a team I don't believe has the personnel to slow running back Adrian Peterson.

He's been the focal point for Minnesota's offense, as the Vikings have shunned the newer pass-happy ways of much of the league. At 3-1, they're doing something right, and make no mistake, quarterback Christian Ponder is doing his part to balance things out when the Vikings have the ball.

Peterson is 10th in the league with 332 yards rushing, and thanks to his style of running, and the holes he constantly is able to find - in tight quarters off the center gaps - it's helped Ponder develop a rhythm early on.

That balance doesn't bode well for the Titans, who have given up a league-high 151 points - that's nearly a whopping 38 points per game.

And the biggest problem for Tennessee, in giving up that many points, is it's forced to take the ball out of its own running back's hands, while putting all the pressure on whomever is under center. It had been Jake Locker, but he's ruled out due to a dislocated non-throwing shoulder. Thus, 14-year veteran Matt Hasselbeck will step in.

Won't matter, though, cause the Vikings' defense ranks eighth in the NFL, and remember, just shut down the San Francisco 49ers not too long ago. No reason to think it can't stifle the much-worse Titans.

I'll lay it with the Vikings.

4♦ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Matt Rivers

2-0 with my free plays on Saturday, as both Cincinnati and NC State come up winners.

Now a 33-16 run with my comp plays.

For Sunday, free play winner in the NFL will be the Under in the Seattle-Carolina contest.

Something has to give today, as Carolina has been involved in a few high-scoring affairs, while Seattle has been involved in predominantly lower scoring contests through their first quarter of the long campaign.

Seattle's defense has been tip-top this year, allowing a grand total of just 58 points in their first four games. Not surprisingly ALL four of Seattle's games this season have stayed Under the total. With the Seahawks offense averaging just 17 1/2 points per game, I do not look for there to be too many points accumulated in this meeting at Carolina.

As for the Panthers, their last home game against the Giants did hold Under, and they have actually split at 2-2 in the Over/Under department this year. The Carolina offense will be put to the test in this one, and I just do not see many points being tallied.

Seattle makes it 5-for-5 Under the total this year.

2♦ SEATTLE-CAROLINA UNDER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Tony Karpinski

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals    
Play: Cincinnati Bengals

Miami has been playing tough and strong on defense only giving up 20/gm over the last 3 games. The Dolphins can play tremendous versus the running game, but it’s the passing game they need to worry about much more. Miami is going to give up a load of yards to Dalton and Co. Cincinnati is sitting nice at 3-1, after 3 of their first 4 games were on the road. Cincinnati can score the ball and will pass all over these Dolphins. The Bengals win and get the cover at home.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Dave Price

Atlanta Falcons -3

The Falcons have been an extremely reliable favorite under coach Mike Smith. During his watch, the Falcons are 26-14 ATS when laying points. They have won by an average score of 26.5 to 18.0 in these games. Atlanta is coming off its first ATS defeat of the season, but it is an impressive 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss. Atlanta's defense was bad last week, but Washington's has struggled all season. Besides, the Falcons are on an impressive 27-9 ATS run in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The Redskins are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Take the Falcons.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Ray Monohan

Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots    
Play: Denver Broncos

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning meet for the 13th time head-to-head today in a late afternoon game.

Watch for huge performances from pass-rushing specialists Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller and cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter today to keep this game close. I also expect Willis McGahee, who leads active players in 100-yard rushing games with 32 will help the Broncos control the clock keeping Brady, Welker, Gronk, and Ridley off the field.

The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New England. The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Patriots win this won straight up but we like Manning to keep it close.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Jeff Alexander

Cleveland Browns +8.5

The Browns, who played the Eagles, Bengals and Ravens tough, are showing value catching over a touchdown here. The Browns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road contests and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The Giants are on a 0-4 ATS slide vs. teams with a losing record, and they are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road mark. Plus, road underdogs or pickems that check into a matchup off a road loss are an impressive 159-99 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario are 2-0 ATS this season. Bet the Browns.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Eric Williams

Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts    
Play: Green Bay Packers

The Indianapolis Colts have a nice future in front of them thanks to quarterback Andrew Luck, but that time clearly is not now - and certainly not against the far more experienced - and desperate - Green Bay Packers in this contest!

The Packers need to make a statement after getting off to a fairly slow start on offense this season and now's the perfect time for them to do just that!

Green Bay has gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last half-dozen games in the month of October.

The Colts are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games and I believe they're going to suffer another home loss in this one!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Michael Alexander

Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers    
Play: San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is coming off a dominating performance versus the Jets as they had a 26-9 first down edge in a 30 point cover while racking up 5 takeaways. San Francisco has a +159½ point ATS advantage in their last 23 games.

Bills got shelled by the Patriots after a 21-7 lead turned into a 52-28 loss. RB's Spiller and Jackson combined for just 62 rushing yards. Their defense allowed 247 rushing yards.

San Francisco is 9-3 ATS versus .500+ non division opponents.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Chip Chirimbes

Cleveland Browns vs. NY Giants    
Play: NY Giants

All I keep hearing from the radio guys around Las Vegas and the nation in that the Browns are playing people tough because the Ravens didn't separate themselves from Cleveland last Thursday night. Yeah, we'll I remember the Bills going into Cleveland and shutting this team down. The Giants are coming off that Sunday nightwear against the Eagles wand this will be 'cake' for them. Lay it!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Greg Daraban

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Miami must Travel again again this time Cincinnati and the Bengals are not getting much respect for a team that is 3-1 under QB Dalton. Dolphins improving each week with QB Tanneyhill running the show. Bengals make it 4-1 with a win today. Take Cincinnati

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +195 over N.Y. YANKEES Series Bet

Incredibly, since 1995, the Yanks have missed the playoffs just one time. They have been knocked out in the first round eight of those 15 years. Most recently, the Yanks were knocked out in round one in four straight years from 2004 to 2007 and were also beaten last season by the Tigers. This is a team that was built to make the playoffs but a lack of pitching once they get here has been their downfall. The same could hold true this year. Outside of C.C. Sabathia, every other starter in the Yanks rotation is a potential liability. Of course the same can be said for the Orioles but they have an outstanding bullpen and closer and they’re not the team taking back close to 2-1 odds.

The Orioles just won’t go away. They’re not just happy to be here. They come to the park expecting to win and they usually do. Every time you expect the “magic” to end, it doesn’t. This is a young and dangerous team that is playing with house money under no pressure whatsoever.

We could take the Orioles in game one today at +144. However, +195 in a five game series sure looks better should they win game one. Should they go onto win game 2, they become a big favorite and we could hedge. If they lose the first game, our bet is still alive. The tag on the Orioles is simply too big to ignore.


ST. LOUIS +100 over Washington

Props to all the great pitchers that won 20 games, nearly won 20 games or that were consistently good all season long. Adam Wainwright didn’t win 20 games. In fact, he lost 13. However, he’s as good as any pitcher in the league and should never be a dog in his own yard.

Although he had a high ERA in early May, Wainwright's skills showed no effect from his 2011 Tommy John surgery. Now in early October, Wainwright's season is even more impressive. Wainwright has 184 K’s in 199 innings, an elite 51% groundball rate an xERA that is within a couple of points of his previous lofty perches.  While strand rate and 1H hr/f have done in Wainwright's ERA, everything else screams "elite." The fact that his 2H has been even better means that, tough as it is to imagine, he even has more upside. This guy is as elite as any in the business.

Gio Gonzalez is also elite, making this a pretty sweet pitcher’s duel. However, this is a first for many of the Nats, including Gonzalez’s first appearance in the playoffs. It’s also worth noting that 10 of Wainwright’s 14 wins came at home and the combination of the Cardinals and Wainwright in their own backyard is too strong to pass up on without having to spot anything.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

MTi Sports

Titans / Vikings Under 44

We had Tennessee over last week because they were a big dog and the game was likely to get sloppy.  Here, the Titans think that they have a chance to win and will feature Chris Johnson.  The Vikings won with defense on the road and they should do the same here.  This line is too high, we're on the UNDER.

Minnesota is 0-23-1 OU when they are off a TD-plus cover in which they forced at least five punts -- as long as they were not up by 28-plus points after the first quarter in that TD-plus cover.

This trend makes good handicapping sense.  When the Vikings are off a performance in which they were at least a touchdown better than expectations in which their defense forced their opponent to punt, they stick with what works -- their running game and their defense and this points to a low scoring game.

Tennessee is 0-4 OU when they are off a game as a road dog in which they rushed the ball for at least 50 more yards than their season-to-date average.

This is not a Ponder-vs-Hasslebeck match-up.  It is a Peterson-vs-Johnson match-up.

Why would Minnesota ask Christian Ponder to do anything more than hand off to Peterson most of the time??  Take the UNDER.

MTi's FORECAST:  Tennessee 17 MINNESOTA 16

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Joe Gavazzi

Chicago -5.5

It's a bad situation for the Bears, but I will allow the fundamentals to guide me in favoring their side. Chicago is in a road/road situation following a MNF victory against the Cowboys 34-18. However, in that contest, the Cowboys outgained the Bears 430-360 and Chicago profited from 5 Tony Romo INTs. With a bye on deck, it's a good spot to be fat against a 1-3 SU Jag team. Bears should easily shut down what Jax likes to do best with a run defense that allows just 67/3.6. That unit keys notably the better stop force. Look for big day on the ground from the Bears against the Jags defensive front allowing 150/4.3. This has been a profitable spot for the Bears of late who are 5-1-1 ATS RF covering by an average of double-digits.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Andre Gomes

Browns / Giants Over 43

It may seem a bit risky to take the over in a game involving the Browns, however I believe we have the right conditions in here to watch a relatively high scoring game. The Giants offense has been at a decent level this season, especially on the passing game with Eli Manning being able to throw the football reasonably well to his receivers with the help from his quality Offensive Line. Cleveland has been struggling on their secondary and their pass rush isn't good enough to trouble the Giants' OL, therefore I believe Eli Manning will have a good game today. In terms of the running game, Ahmad Bradshaw has been struggling, but Andre Brown is looking very good on this early season. With the Giants having a good passing game, their running game is their backup plan and they should be able to do enough today against a Browns run defense that isn't terrible, but isn't top notch neither.

The Browns offense should also be able to have some decent offense in here. Their rookie QB Brandon Weeden has been struggling a bit with turnovers, but he has been able to give the team decent yardage, something that should happen again today against a team that has been struggling on secondary and that will surely be missing starting CB Jayron Hosley and S Kenny Phillips plus CB Corey Webster is also questionable for today. The Giants' pass rush has been disappointing as well this season, especially considering what they did in last season's playoffs, therefore I believe Cleveland will have a decent performance on their passing game today. In terms of the running game, rookie RB Trent Richardson has been a bit disappointing this season, however the Giants have been struggling on their run defense this season, therefore I wouldn't be surprised if Trent Richardson has some kind of a breakout game today.

Even with some light rain predicted for today's game, I believe both teams should be able to have a decent offensive production in here. The Giants have a good passing game and Cleveland has been struggling on their secondary, while the Giants have injury problems on their secondary and have been struggling on their run defense, two issues that Cleveland should take advantage from that today to score a respectable amount of points. I projected this game to have a totals line of 47 points, therefore I have enough edge to take the Over in here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Real Time Animal

Cincinnati -3.5

I think Miami is getting way too much respect here. The Dolphins are 1-3 despite playing a schedule that's included Oakland, the Jets, and Arizona, who is a complete fraud having been out-gained in all five games this year. Cincinnati has won three straight and plays in perhaps the best division in football with Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Bengals have scored 27 or more points in three straight. Who knows how the Dolphins will respond in a tough environment coming off back-to-back overtime defeats and we have a young team playing their 2nd consecutive road game with a change of surface. The five rookie quarterbacks including Tannehill are 6-19 SU so far. I was kind of impressed with Cincinnati's defense last week at Jacksonville. Despite playing 2nd consecutive road game in as many weeks, the Bengals held Maurice Jones Drew and the Jaguars to 69-yard rushing and just 212 total yards. Remember the week before Andy Dalton out-passed RG III 385-168 in the nation's capitol. Miami is #30 in pass defense. Plus Cincinnati is #2 in sacks so far so Tannehill will be under the gun especially if the Dolphins can't run. The Benglas have recorded six sacks in back-to-back games and obviously getting Carlos Dunlap back has made a world of difference. Cincinnati opened at -5 1/2 and the line really fell. I don't see it. Dolphins have played way over their heads but are still 1-3 and facing what I consider a very soft schedule. Oakland, the Jets, and Arizona figure to be lousy the rest of the year in my opinion.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

NFL Game of the Week - Chicago Bears (-5.5) *5 Units

Service Plays
San Fran 49ers  (-10) *3 Units
Green Bay Packers (-7) *3 Units

-Fo Bros

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