Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

DUNKEL INDEX

Game 411-412: Atlanta at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 134.442; Washington 133.740
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

Game 413-414: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 134.390; Pittsburgh 135.289
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Over

Game 415-416: Green Bay at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 134.537; Indianapolis 129.704
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7); Under

Game 417-418: Cleveland at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.455; NY Giants 140.563
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 16; 41
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 9; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-9); Under

Game 419-420: Tennessee at Minnesota (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 126.511; Minnesota 128.259
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6); Over

Game 421-422: Miami at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.864; Cincinnati 132.551
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4; 45
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+4); Over

Game 423-424: Baltimore at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.469; Kansas City 130.795
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 5; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+5); Under

Game 425-426: Seattle at Carolina (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 131.001; Carolina 135.952
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 43 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Under

Game 427-428: Chicago at Jacksonville (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 136.891; Jacksonville 126.543
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 10 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Chicago by 5 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-5 1/2); Over

Game 429-430: Denver at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 131.425; New England 143.404
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Under

Game 431-432: Buffalo at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 129.662; San Francisco 138.350
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+10); Over

Game 433-434: San Diego at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 131.591; New Orleans 133.820
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2; 58
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3 1/2); Over

MONDAY, OCTOBER 8

Game 435-436: Houston at NY Jets (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 139.692; NY Jets 132.154
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Houston by 9; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+9); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Ben BurnsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo vs. San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This line opened at 43.5, before climbing past the 44 mark. That may not sound like much. However, it is significant.
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The 49'ers scored 34 points last time out and their game still finished well below the total - that's because their defense pitched a shutout.
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Despite facing some fairly tough opposition, the 49'ers are allowing only 16.2 points per game and just 277.2 yards per game.
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After allowing 17 and 14 points in their previous two games, the Bills got lit up for 52 last week. Needless to say, they'll be looking for an improved defensive effort here.
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Including the blanking of the Jets, the 49'ers have seen the "under" go 8-1 their last nine games against AFC opponents. As long as you can get at least 44, take a look at the Under here.

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David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta vs. WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Falcons are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS; last week they beat Carolina 30-28, unable to cover the 7-point spread.
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Atlanta has matched its best start in franchise history, guided by QB Matt Ryan, who has the league's highest NFL passer rating at 112.1.
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The win over Carolina wasn't pretty though, as Ryan was sacked seven times.
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Defensively the team looks sound, giving up just 19 points per game.
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However take note, already 0-1 ATS this season vs. conference opponents, the Falcons are just 13-14 ATS in the same position over the last two.
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The Redskins are 2-2 SU/ATS; last week they won at Tampa Bay 24-22 as 1.5-point underdogs.
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This is a big game for Washington as it looks to snap a seven-game home losing streak.
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QB Robert Griffin III has been superb this year, with a 103.2 passer rating, throwing just one INT in 124 attempts.
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Washington is averaging 30.8 points per game.
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The Falcons thrive off of turnovers, but the Redskins are tied with Atlanta and Houston for the fewest, just two.
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RB Alfred Morris leads a unit which produces a league-best 175.5 yards per game on the ground.
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Defensively the team has been pretty stalwart, especially against the run.
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The Falcons rely on RB Michael Turner to keep teams honest, to set up the play action for Ryan. However, the Redskins are yielding just 89 yards per game on the ground.
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Note, already 2-0 ATS this year as an underdog, Washington is 15-11 ATS in the same position over the last two.
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So will Atlanta come in overconfident and overlook this underrated Redskins team?
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I believe the answer is: yes!
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Washington has many motivational factors working in its favor here, and I expect its secondary to do just enough for it to come away with at least the ATS cover.
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Consider a second look at the home side in this matchup!

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Jesse SchuleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay vs. Indianapolis
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The Packers will be in Indy to take on the Colts in Week 5, coming off a barn burner with the Saints. The Colts will have their hands full with this high flying Packers offense, and you can expect to see plenty of points in this game.
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The Packers came into last week ranking first overall in the NFL against the pass, however they allowed Drew Brees to gain more yards in last week's game than they had allowed in all three previous games. Brees threw for 446 yards and three TDs against the Green Bay secondary.
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The last four times these two teams have faced each other head to head, they have seen the total go OVER the listed number in all four contests. Of Course the last time the Colts played the Packers, they had Peyton Manning at quarterback. Andrew Luck hasn't had a real breakout game yet this year, however he showed plenty of promise in the pre-season. This week he may have an opportunity to put up some big numbers against this Packers secondary.
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If the Colts are going to have any chance of winning this game, they are gonna need all the points they can get. After being blown out by the Bears in Chicago in their season opener, the Colts have played a couple of close games, winning at home over the Vikes and losing last week to the Jags. This will be their first test against one of the premier offensive teams in the NFL, and you can expect them to struggle to keep the Packers from scoring.
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The Indy defense has been one of the worst in the NFL at containing the run, allowing an average of over 130 yards rushing per game so far. The Packers will use the run to set up the pass, and if their running game gets going, they will put up a lot of points.
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It's gonna be a shootout in Indy on Sunday ..

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GB Packers -7FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Packers historically have come out of the bye with big-time success, with a sparkling 7-1 ATS record. Green Bay and Indianapolis are almost identical teams, struggling with the ground game and needing the passing game to bail out of trouble. Both teams are averaging under 100 yards rushing per game and are in the mid 300's passing. However the rookie led offensive team of the Colts do not match up well against the veteran defense of the Packers, who are only giving up 201 yards passing per game. Charles Woodson, and the rest of the Packer ballhawks will no doubt have a plan for the inexperienced Andrew Luck and will be showing him a variety of defensive formations. Take the Packers to dominate this re-building franchise as the Pack tries to keep up with the Bears and Vikings in the NFC North division title race.

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SpartanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver +7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last week we cashed in easily on the Patriots as our big Game of the Month in the NFL, but with that being said I'm going against Brady and company this sunday against the Broncos. Not sure just how many more times we'll have the opportunity to sit back and enjoy a battle of arms and wits between two of the absolute greatest to ever get under center. Brady & Manning have staged some epic battles in the past and this has at least the potential to be yet another. Here is a hard, cold stubborn fact to consider here guys. The last half dozen times these two have squared off the thing was decided by a touchdown or less. And here we have Peyton and his Broncos catching that key number of seven. Manning throughout his career has usually been pure money when taking the field as a dog. The public will be drooling over the Patriots here but I suspect this game will be competitive to the end. Denver will be looking to serve up some payback after a pair of convincing losses to the Patriots last year. I'm not calling for an outright but I do feel taking Manning and the generous points is the sharp side for us. We cashed last week on the free release with Miami getting the cash at Arizona, let's get another one here.

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Johnny DetroitFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Giants -8.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Browns kept it close with the Ravens as Brandon Weeden put up 300+ yards in the air, but Trent Richardson only managed 47 yards on the ground as Cleveland fell to 0-4. The loss of Josh Cribbs early in the game hurt the Browns, but it was the running game that was an utter disaster. Prior to the loss to the Eagles, the Giants piled up 41 points on Tampa Bay and 36 on the Panthers. Eli Manning made a poor decision in the red zone and now leads the league in red zone interceptions. The Giants should roll here and we feel they win by a couple TDs as Manning gets the job done this week.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Survivor Pick - Week 5

NEW ORLEANS over San Diego

There have been plenty of teams that start a year at 0-4 and most of them were deserving of such a start. The Saints don’t belong in that category. This is a quality team that employs one of the top QB’s in the NFL, as his numbers will confirm. Drew Brees leads the league in passing with 1,350 yards.

The Chargers have defeated Oakland, Tennessee and K.C while getting whacked by Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Note that the team that destroyed them had a quality QB. Against Oakland, they blocked four punts. Against K.C. they were aided by six Chief turnovers. The Chargers 3-1 record against bad clubs is all smoke and mirrors. This is a stagnant offensive team and by year’s end the numbers will reflect just that.

Last week, we were fortunate to squeeze by with the Packers one-point win over these Saints for our Survivor pick. Those that played Atlanta or Arizona and even Baltimore, to a lesser extent, could easily be on the rail. This week, most of your poolies will be on the G-Men, Niners or Texans. With every big favorite winning last week, a time bomb could be ticking and if it goes off, one or two of this week’s ‘Big 3” will lose outright. We’re certainly not going to guess which it will be. Instead, in sticking with our theory of not going down with or advancing with the rest of the pack, we’re as comfortable endorsing the Saints as we are any of the aforementioned teams. The Saints are embarrassed by their start. While it won’t be easy, they still want to defy the odds and shoot for the playoffs. If that is to happen, it has to start here. Against an overvalued visitor, we’re confident that it will.

Week 5 pick – New Orleans straight up.
N.Y. Jets √
Cincinnati √
Chicago √
Green Bay √

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KANSAS CITY +6 -108 over Baltimore
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Things find a way of balancing out in this league. The Ravens have been solid. A contributing factor is their ability to protect the football. It’s no wonder that Baltimore is winning with just four giveaways thus far compared to eight takeaways from its opponents for a +4 turnover ratio.
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The Chiefs have been awful in comparison. Kansas City players have fumbled eight times and have been intercepted seven times while intercepting its adversaries just twice and having zero fumble recoveries. That’s a -13 ratio, dead last in the league. This KC team is averaging 419 yards of offence per game, 4th best in league while allowing an acceptable 334 per game. With a strong running game, a decent passing game and facing an aging defense while at Arrowhead, we see the pendulum swinging back here. Upset possibility.
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Tennessee +5½ -104 over MINNESOTA
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Sorry Purple People fans, this is about making money, not friends. The Vikes have been a pleasant surprise with their quick start while the Titans have been rather yucky. Now though, the Vikes are expected to win and win by a margin. That’s a tall order for a team that had six less wins than this opponent just a year ago. Minnesota QB Christian Ponder has performed admirably, with a 68% completion rate and zero interceptions. However, ranking 26th in the league with just 199-yards per game is not exactly an aerial attack to fear, especially when Indianapolis and Detroit have been on the opponent’s docket. Tennessee will have Matt Hasselbeck at the controls this week and he may be a welcomed site. Expect a close one.

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SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta -3 -105 over WASHINGTON
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This one might follow its simplest form. Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense are just too efficient for a Washington defense allowing far too many points. The Redskins have relinquished 32, 31, 38 and 22 points respectively to their foes. Defenses look forward to play against hyped up rookies so don’t expect Washington’s run of points scored to continue. After Atlanta’s scare against Carolina last week, expect a much more focused effort here. No units risked.
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PITTSBURGH -3 -120 over Philadelphia
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Don’t get too caught up in the Eagles win over G-Men on Monday night. Winning teams tend to be overvalued the week after being featured and that’s in play here. Philly’s three wins have been by two points or less. In fairness, they’ve played a slate of good defenses but that also takes its toll. Philadelphia’s loss was a one-sided clubbing by the Cardinals. Did you see the Cardinals on Thursday night? Hmmm….
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The 1-2 Steelers come off their bye having last been upset by the Raiders and have been stewing about their losing record for two weeks now. The Steelers welcomed their extra week’s rest as several dinged up guys are expected to return to the field. Pittsburgh prognosticating has become quite clear lately with low-wattage efforts when traveling compared to high voltage performances when hosting. Pennsylvania pride on the line but Eagles off savoury win over G-men while scoring points remains an issue. No units risked.
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INDIANAPOLIS +7 -110 over Green Bay
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Green Bay pleased to be at .500 after narrow win over visiting Saints. But it had better not take its eye off the ball here after combating Niners, Bears, at Seahawks on a Monday night and New Orleans before heading to Houston next week. Appealing as it may appear, having to win by more than a touchdown while travelling is a low percentage play and one we’ll usually avoid. Colts are rested and will be inspired to play for ailing coach. No units risked.
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Cleveland +9 -110 over N.Y. GIANTS
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We’ve learned over the years to not trust the G-Men when laying big points against inferior opponents. The Giants tend to play to the level of their competition, substantiated by New York failing to cover its previous six games when favored by eight points or more.
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Yes, the Browns are winless but they have certainly been in most games and there are enough positives to hope for better times ahead. Brandon Weeden has been genuinely impressive with over 320 passing yards during the two road efforts in Cincinnati and Baltimore. His receiving corps are one of the league’s weakest despite Weeden’s fine efforts.  But after watching LeSean McCoy run for more than 5 yds. per carry againt New York last week, the Cleveland brain trusts may want to run Trent Richardson for most of the afternoon and pray that a Brownies receiver can haul in a pass or two. Browns are a dangerous doggy lately, with an 8-2-1 ATS over past 11. Should they heed our advice, this one stays within range. No units risked.
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Miami +3½ -110 over CINCINNATI
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Really Miami? 400+ for Tannehill and you let Kevin Kolb beat you with one decent pass after spending half the game on his back? They were who we thought they were and you let them off the hook? We’ll take the good out of that one, as Miami is not nearly as bad as pundits had predicted. The Fish could easily have had a different fate in two previous games but such is the learning curve for rookie coaches and quarterbacks.
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The Bengals are weaker on defense than most 3-1 teams but facing Cleveland, Washington and Jacksonville has helped to mask some deficiencies. Cinci’s rushing game remains just as lackluster as it was with Cedric Benson, as BenJarvus Green-Ellis has only gained 286 yards on 82 runs. That's a 3.5 yard per carry average. Bengals have played one of the easiest schedules in the league. While Miami isn’t exactly elite, they are doing some good things on the field and figure to get better as season wears on. With Cincy, prefer to get a better handle on them before giving away more than a field goal against okay squads. No units risked.
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JACKSONVILLE +4½ -102 over Chicago
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Bears clearly the better side but a couple of intangibles may work against them here. Chicago enters this one after knocking off ‘America’s Team’ in a Monday nighter. Da Bears will travel again, on a short week no less and then will have a week off. Jacksonville on a Sunday afternoon after winning on road in Dallas in prime time is about as severe a letdown that can occur in this league. It’s interesting to note that clubs are 0-6 straight up before bye week and line suggests this one will be close. Jags will pound the ground, keeping this one conservative against complacent visitor. No units risked.
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Seattle +3 -104 over CAROLINA
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How things change from week to week. Seattle’s stock low again after loss in St, Louis while Panthers stock rose dramatically after what should’ve been an upset in Atlanta. Rarely is it a good idea to follow the market under those conditions. In addition, Thursday’s game showed that Rams are making strides, most notably on defence. It’s not the embarrassment its been to lose there.
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Now that the Seahawks’ Monday night debacle with Green Bay is old news, and after the resulting loss, Seattle can get back to business. While Seattle doesn’t travel well, they should be able to control the pace of this one with its strong defense and the ability to run Marshawn Lynch against a weak Panthers run defense, one that ranks dead last in the NFL. No units risked.
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Denver +6½ +100 over NEW ENGLAND
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The Patriots beat the Broncos twice last year, winning 41-23 at home in week 15 and then 45-10 in New England during the playoffs but this game has a completely different slant on it with Peyton Manning, not Tim Tebow, under center for the Broncos.
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The Patriots come off a thrashing of the Bills after losing two games and falling to 1-2. The only problem with believing in them is that they beat the Bills and Titans. Not exactly prime beef, is it?
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Manning is now taking near a full touchdown against his old rivals? What is this world coming to? Patriots are strong at home but Manning knows tendencies of this opponent as well as any and with a month under his belt to acclimate to new mates and shake off dust, there’s no reason that this doesn’t stay competitive. No units risked.
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SAN FRANCISCO -9½ -106 over Buffalo
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The Niners usually play at a high energy level and returning home after playing three of its first four games away, San Francisco figures to be extra amped for this one. A 34-0 trouncing of the Jets reasserts the 49ers swagger and made some amends for the flat performance in Minnesota that resulted in their only loss.
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Buffalo’s offense has been good enough to produce at least 24 points each week but it might just be a mirage, as the Bills have passed for over 210 yards just one time. The Bills are 2-2 but their wins have been against teams that total 1-7 on the season (Chiefs and Browns). In their two losses, they gave up 48 and 52 to the Jets and Patriots respectively. It doesn't really matter what you score when your offense is forced to overcome what your feeble defense allows.
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Bills can’t be feeling very good after blowing a two touchdown lead to Patriots and then boarding a long flight here. Niners too strong on both sides of the ball in this matchup and the results should confirm that. No units risked.

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Tennessee Titans vs. Minnesota Vikings    
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Minnesota is being overlooked since they have two ugly wins over the 49ers and Lions and loss to the Indianapolis Colts, but I think this team is improved over last year. Ponder has started to come around a little bit and AP is getting stronger and stronger each week. The Titans on the other hand are in disarray. Locker is hurt which means Hasselbeck will be under center. He's not the worst QB in the league, but when Tennessee's running game has been as bad as it has he is not going to beat anyone with his arm.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Joseph D'AmicoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Bears vs. Jacksonville Jaguars    
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Jacksonville has the worst offense in the NFL. Blaine Gabbert has been sacked 12 times this season. The QB tends to hold on to the ball too long. This combined with the fact that Maurice Jones-Drew has been held under 100 YR in three of the four games this season. WR, Laurent Robinson is most likely out due to a concussion. The rest of the Jaguars receiving corps do not match up well against a Bears secondary and overall "D" that held a solid Cowboys offense to just 18 points LW. Chicago is steadily improving, combining for 77 points in their L2 outings. QB, Jay Cutler is becoming more confident with each game while the legs of Forte (check status) and Bush have combined for 343 YR and 4 TDs. The tandem will face a Jacksonville run defense that allows 150.3 YPG on the ground. The Bears are 4-1 ATS their L5 games played overall while the Jaguars are 5-16-1 ATS their L22 games played vs. teams with a winning record. Take Chicago.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dolphins vs. Bengals
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Miami has found a running game with Reggie Bush, ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing, and have now found a QB. Miami rookie Ryan Tannehill threw for 431 yards last week in a tough loss at Arizona. But this Miami secondary is terrible, 30th in the NFL against the pass allowing 297.8 yds per game. The over is 5-2 in the Dolphins last 7 games overall. Cincinnati is far more uptempo on offense this season, and the over is 7-1 in Bengals last 8 home games. They have plenty of passing weapons to attack Miami and the over is 13-3 in the Bengals last 16 against the AFC, as well as 10-1 over the total in their last 11 games on fieldturf. Play the Dolphins/Bengals Over the total.

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Wunderdog

Miami at Cincinnati
Pick: Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins started the season with a blowout loss at the hands of Houston. They then returned the favor vs. Oakland with a blowout win 35-13. Given how good Houston is, so far so good. But then Miami lost two more games to drop to 1-3. But is it that bad? Both of those losses came in OT so the Dolphins could very well be 3-1 right now. Despite the losses, the Dolphins’ offense has generated lots of yardage. They have, in fact won the battle at the line of scrimmage by +174 yards in the last three weeks. That is bad news for Cincinnati who has allowed 28 points per game despite holding the Jacksonville offense to just 10 points last week. The Bengals generate most of their yards in the passing game, as their running game has been stalled. Miami may be giving up yards, but their QB rating against is just 75.9, and they are holding teams to a 29% conversion rate on third down. The Bengals can't stop the run or pass, allowing 5.45 yards per carry on the ground. Both of these teams can move the ball, but the Dolphins have more resistance to slow down the Bengals. Miami has come up big in their last eight vs. a winning team at a flawless 8-0 ATS, while the Bengals have managed just one cover in their last 10 vs. the AFC. Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are a horrible play as home chalk going just 13-25 ATS as a home favorite. My computer matchup for this game pegs the game a dead heat. Take the Fins here. Buy to +3.5 if you can. Otherwise, grab them at +3.

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NFL Predictions

Minnesota Vikings - 5.5

The Tennessee Titans enter Sunday's game with a 1-3 record, and are coming off of a 38-14 loss to Houston where they lost their starting QB. Their lone win on the season was a 44-41 victory against Detroit, while other loses came against San Diego and New England by a combined score of 72-23. Matt Hasselbeck will get the start at QB in place of injured Jake Locker. The Vikings have surprised many as they've opened the season 3-1 with two straight upsets in Detroit (20-13) and vs San Francisco (24-13). In Week 1 they hosted the Jaguars and beat them 26-23 in overtime, which was followed by their lone loss in Indianapolis 23-20. The Titans defense ranks 31st in the NFL giving up 419 yards per game, and they are last in the league allowing 37.8 points against per game. Minnesota is 8th defensively giving up 313 yards per game, and 7th allowing just 18 points against per game. Offensively these two teams aren't too far apart, with the Vikings sitting 21st in the leauge while the Titans are 23rd. Minnesota is scoring 22.5 points per game, while the Titans are scoring 20.2 ppg. Despite having one of the best running backs in the game, the Titans are 28th in the league with just 68 rushing yards per game. The Vikings defense is 7th against the run, and if they can limit Chris Johnson they are going to make it tough on Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck managed to complete 61.6% of his passes last season for 3,571 yards, but he threw 14 INTs (18 TDs) for a 82.4 QB Rating. After entering the game last week he was effective at times throwing 2 TD passes and completing 68% of his passes, but he did throw 2 INTs. I give the QB edge to the Vikings as Christian Ponder has looked solid this year, completing 68.3% of his passes while throwing 4 TDs and 0 INTs for a 97.7 QB Rating. Considering the Titans are 26th in the league giving up 8 yards per pass attempt I think we will see Ponder have another productive day Sunday. The Vikings are a much improved team from last year, where they won just once at home. If you take a look at their home games last year you will notice they had a pretty tough schedule hosting Tampa Bay, Detroit, Arizona, Green Bay, Oakland, Denver, New Orleans, and Chicago - almost all teams that were either a playoff team or close to it. Tennessee managed to go 4-4 on the road last season, but wins came against Cleveland, Carolina, Buffalo and Houston in a meaningless Week 17 game. Nothing too impressive there. Their only real impressive victory last year was in Week 2 against the Ravens at home where they won 26-13 as 5.5 point underdogs. The Titans have shown nothing defensively so far this year, and their only game of over 14 points came against the Lions at home where a lot of their points came from special teams or big plays on poor tackling by the Lions. I don't see Tennessee being able to do much to stop the Vikings balanced offense. Take Minnesota to cover the spread and win by a TD or more.


Denver Broncos +7

Denver has been a bit of a roller coaster this season, as they opened with a big 31-19 victory over Pittsburgh in the Sunday Night game before dropping the Week 2 MNF game 27-21in Atlanta (in a game that they were down 27-7 at the end of the 3rd). The Broncos then hosted Houston and lost 31-25, before running over Oakland 37-6 last week. The big question surrounding the Broncos was if Peyton Manning was going to come back where he left off, and so far he has been pretty solid. Manning is completing 64.7% of his passes with 8 TDs and 3 INTs for a QB Rating of 96.9 - a number I think will only get better as the season goes on and Manning gets a better feel for his receivers (and vice versa). Many had thought that the Patriots could go undefeated this season with a relatively easy schedule, but the Patriots enter Sunday's game 2-2. New England has beaten Tennessee 34-13 and Buffalo last week 52-28, while they've lost 20-18 to Arizona as 13.5 point favorites and 31-30 to Baltimore in Week 3. Tom Brady has been impressive as always completing 65.6% of his passes with 7 TDs and just 1 INT for a QB Rating 102.4. In total offense the Patriots rank 1st in the NFL averaging 438 yards per game, while the Broncos are 12th with 387 yards per game. New England is also 1st in PPG at 33.5, while Denver is 7th with 28.5 PPG. Defensively the Broncos rank 7th allowing 308 yards against per game, while New England is 20th at 366 yards against per game. Denver is allowing 20.8 points against per game, while Patriots are a little higher at 23. What impresses me is that the Broncos have faced three very good offenses in Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Houston (the other being Oakland), while the Patriots have only had 1 or 2 tests in Baltimore and Buffalo (with the others being Tennessee and Arizona). I do give the offensive edge to Brady and the Patriots, but the defensive edge has to go to Denver. Take note that Manning is 14-4 against the spread as an underdog since 2003. 7 points is just too much in this one, as even if the Broncos do find themselves down late in the game we know that Manning can easily lead them down the field for a late score or two. I expect this to be a classic tight game between Brady and Manning as both show why they are considered elite QBs. Take Denver to keep it close.


Cincinnati Bengals - 3.5

Despite a 1-3 record to open up the season, the Miami Dolphins have been somewhat impressive to start the season. The opened the season with a 30-10 loss in Houston, but followed that up with a big 35-13 home victory against Oakland. In Week 3 the Dolphins lost Reggie Bush mid way through the game and allowed the Jets to comeback and beat them 23-20 in a game I think they should have won. The Dolphins then went into Arizona to take on the then undefeated Cardinals and were leading late before losing 24-21 in overtime. With that said, I do think the Dolphins are going to struggle in Cincinnati this weekend. The Bengals have won 3 straight games to improve to 3-1 on the year. They opened the season with a brutal 44-13 loss in the early MNF game, but then went on to beat Cleveland by 7, Washington by 7 as 3 point underdogs, and Jacksonville last week by 17 as 1 point favorites. Much of the Bengals success has come through the air, as Andy Dalton has completed 67.5% of his passes with 8 TDs and 4 INTs for a 103 QB Rating (5th in the league). Dolphins rookie QB ranks 31st in the league as he has completed 55.9% of his passes with just 2 TDs and 6 INTs for a 66.4 QB Rating. I will give him credit for having a good game last week throwing for 431 yards in Arizona, but I don't think we will see that type of performance on Sunday. These two offenses are ranked closely with the Dolphins 9th in the league at 397 yards per game and the Bengals 10th with 389 yards per game, but Cincinnati has managed to put up 28 PPG while the Dolphins only 21.5 PPG. The Dolphins offense has come more from rushing the football, while the Bengals are the opposite with most of their offense coming through the air. The Bengals rank 23rd in the league giving up 130 yards aginst per game on the ground, but the Dolphins rank 30th against the pass allowing 297 yards per game through the air. Take note that the Dolphins have giving up 23+ points in 3 of their 4 games, while the Bengals have scored 27+ points in 3 of their 4 games (including 34 points in their lone home game this year). The Bengals were 4-4 last year at home, but losses came against tough teams in Baltimore, Houston, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco (all of which were playoff teams as well). After 2 road games this year the Dolphins have managed to win just 2 road games in the last two season, which came against Buffalo and Kansas City. Although they've done well against the spread on the road, you have to take into consideration that they've been on average roughly 7 point favorites on the road. The Bengals seem to take care of teams they are supposed to beat, and they are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a losing record. I can't see the Dolphins offense keeping up with the Bengals, and I like Cincy to cover the spread on Sunday.

Carolina Panthers -3

The Seahawks enter Week 5 with a 2-2 record, which included a controversial victory against the Packers last Monday. Seattle has won both home games vs Dallas and Green Bay (27-7 and 14-12) while they've lost both of their road games (20-16 in Arizona and 19-13 in St Louis). They are 2-0 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS on the road. The Panthers have gotten off to a rough start to the year, as many people have predicted them to be battling for a playoff spot come December. The Panthers have lost games vs Tampa Bay, an ugly one against the Giants, and last weeks last second 30-28 loss in Atlanta. Their win was a 35-27 victory over New Orleans in Week 2. Overall the Panthers have looked good in 2 of their games (their win and last week in Atlanta), and looked very bad in their other two losses. It will be interesting to see what Panthers team shows up here in Week 5, but I think we can expect a desperate Carolina team to play an all around solid game at home. Despite two bad offensive games, the Panthers still rank 13th in the NFL averaging 373 yards per game on offense while scoring 20 points per game. The Seahawks are 29th in the league averaging 281 yards per game, and just 17.5 points per game (28th). The stats are flipped quite a bit on defense though as the Seahawks rank 2nd allowing 275.8 yards against per game, and 2 allowing 14.5 points against per game. The Panthers are 24th allowing 393 yards against per game and 22nd allowing 27.2 points against per game. Panthers QB Cam Newton is completing 63.6% of his passes with 4 TDs and 5 INTs for a 87.5 QB Rating, while rookie Seahawks QB Russel Wilson is completing 60% of his passes with 4 TDs and 4 INTs for a 73.5 QB Rating. The Seahawks have one of the biggest home field advantages in the NFL, and it shows as their ATS numbers are crazy at home. That also sets them up for being bad on the road against the spread, as they are 17-37-2 ATS in their last 56 road games. Last season they played back to back road games twice (although one had a bye in between) and they went 0-2 in those games both straight up and against the spread, while scoring just 3 points combined. With the Panthers coming off an emotional loss you might think they'd have a let down game, but I think the 2 point loss against the NFC's only defeated team was a confidence booster for this Panthers team. This is a must win for Carolina as they can't fall to 1-4, and with Seattle putting up 16 or fewer points in 3 of their 4 games I like Carolina to win and cover.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers

A Keystone clash at the Ketchup Bottle finds the Steelers in rare air sporting a losing record. According to our well-oiled database, Pittsburgh is 28-7 SU and 27-8 ATS at home with a losing record when playing off a SU and ATS loss. That fits right into head coach Mike Tomlin's 19-7 SU and 17-9 ATS career mark when playing off a loss, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nines games. FYI: Tomlin has never lost a game when taking the field with a losing record, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Eagles check in off Sunday night's hard-fought win over the defending Super Bowl champion Giants - not a good thing if you're a Philly fanatic. That's because road teams who knocked off the defending champs in their previous game are 19-40 SU and 20-38-1 ATS, including a jaw-dropping 3-29 SU and 6-25-1 ATS when installed as dogs of 3 or more points! With Ben Roethlisberger chipping in with a 21-7 SU and 19-9 ATS record in games off one-loss exact, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine, the Burghers appear hot off the grill today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh. Thank you and good luck as always. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh.

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Frank Jordan

Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has twice now this season rebounded nicely after single score losses to win the next week this time they look to get over the .500 mark with a win at Indianapolis. The Luck era has begun in Indianapolis and it is roughly how Peyton started rocky as the Colts are 1-2 through three games and are coming off a bye week. Luck had a good week two winning over Minnesota after getting crushed in week one against Chicago, however week three they let one get away losing 22-17 to Jacksonville a division foe. Things won't be easy come Sunday when they go up against the fierce Packer pass rush. Look for the rookie to run out of Luck as Mathews, Woodson, and company torment the rook all day long. Play Green Bay

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Steve Merril

Washington Nationals vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals 

The Nationals and Cardinals begin their series in St. Louis on Sunday afternoon. St. Louis sends Adam Wainwright to the mound where he is 14-13 with a 3.94 ERA in 32 starts for the Cardinals. He is 10-6 with a 3.73 ERA at home. He beat the Nationals his last time out after giving up 1 run and five hits in six innings in a 12-2 Cardinals win. Michael Morse (2-8) and Jayson Werth (4-16) have had their problems with Wainwright. Despite the best record in baseball, Washington must start their postseason on the road so we'll see how the young team handles that. Gio Gonzalez has been the best pitcher for the Nationals this season. He is 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA in 32 starts for Washington this season. Gonzalez has a 3.31 ERA on the road and a 3.72 ERA in the daytime. St. Louis is hitting .271 against left-handed starters and .265 overall. They have one of the best lineups in baseball against southpaws. The Cardinals are hitting .305 against lefties at home. Washington's youth may be on display in this game so we’ll recommend taking the home team on Sunday afternoon.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday October, 7

Rob Vinciletti

Bears vs. Jaguars
Play: Under

This game fits a nice week 5 system that plays to the under for road teams like Chicago that are 3-1 and playing off a win with a total of 49 or less, provided this is their third road game of the season. These games have played under 27 of 36 times long term. Both Defenses are solid allowing under 255 yards per game this season. The Jaguars have been inept on offense and while Chicago has been good on offense they could be a little flat off the Road dog in in Dallas on Monday night in a game where they were aided by a plethora of Dallas turnovers. The Jaguars have stayed under in 3 of this season. The Bears have played under the last 8 times vs Non conference teams that have a win percentage of .400 or less. Look for this game to stay under the total today.

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Larry Ness

Baltimore vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City

The Ravens are 3-1 but have been ‘through the ringer’ to open the 2012 season. They kicked of their season with the first game of Week 1’s MNF doubleheader, pulling away to beat the Bengals, 44-13. Week 2 saw them play regional rival Philly and lose in the final two minutes, 24-23. Then it was an emotional rematch with the Patriots on SNF in Week 3 (Ravens lost at New England in LY’s AFC championship game, 23-20) with the Ravens ‘escaping’ with a 31-30 win on a 27-yard FG at 0:00! Just four nights later, the Ravens outlasted the Browns 23-16 at Baltimore in an uninspiring effort on Thursday Night football (was the team’s fourth game in 18 days). The Ravens are on the road this week in KC, to face the 1-3 Chiefs but watch out. Baltimore played five non-division road games last year (Ravens were road favorites in each one) and won just ONE! KC may be 1-3 but the Chiefs are averaging 418.5 YPG on offense, while allowing just 334.0. That’s a plus-84.5 YPG difference, surely NOT typical of a 1-3 team. The ‘killer’ is the Chiefs have a whopping 15 giveaways after four games and just two takeaways on defense. The team’s minus-13 TO ratio is easily the worst of any NFL team (Cowboys are 2nd-worst at just minus-7). The Chiefs are allowing 34.0 PPG (2nd-most in the NFL) and are scoring 22.0 PPG, a minus-12.0 PPG difference. If the Chiefs ever stop turning the ball over, they may be dangerous and as mentioned, the Ravens hardly played well in this situation last year (road game vs a non-divisional opponent). The Chiefs have been a strong home dog over the years but so far in 2012, they’ve lost 40-24 to the Falcons in Week 1 (plus-2) and 37-20 to the Chargers last Sunday at plus-2 1/2. However, I do expect a much better effort from the Chiefs in this game. It’s hard to ignore Baltimore’s poor efforts last year in these kind of spots. KC can’t keep turning the ball over at this rate (no team ever has) and I’m taking the points.

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