MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday 10/6

MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday 10/6

ALDS Preview and Pick: Athletics vs. Tigers
By Covers.com

Oakland Athletics (94-68) vs. Detroit Tigers (88-74)

Regular season head-to-head: The Tigers won the season series 4-3.

Series odds: A's +125, Tigers -145

PITCHING

Oakland’s young pitching staff is no doubt the backbone of the ball club. The A's are set to make history by fielding an all-rookie starting rotation this postseason. Travis Blackley, A.J. Griffin, Tom Milone, Jarrod Parker and Dan Straily are all likely to make their postseason debuts after impressive rookie campaigns. Oakland’s bullpen has been equally as impressive, posting a 2.94 ERA, the fourth-best mark in the league.

Nobody wants to face 2011 MVP Justin Verlander multiple times in a short series. With AL strikeout leader Max Scherzer factoring into the equation and feeling good after a return from shoulder fatigue, the Tigers have a potent one-two punch at the front of the rotation. Closer Jose Valverde has converted all four of his career save opportunities in the postseason.

Edge: Athletics

HITTING

The A’s, whose 14 walkoff victories lead baseball, won their seventh game this year after trailing by four or more runs Wednesday over the Rangers in the AL West clincher. Oakland’s .238 team batting average was one of the worst marks in the league, but its hitters ranked seventh in the majors with 195 home runs, 32 of those coming off the bat of OF Josh Reddick..

Tigers’ first baseman Miguel Cabrera became the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years, finishing the season with a .330 batting average, 44 home runs and 139 RBIs. But he isn’t the only big bat Oakland pitchers should be worried about. Slugger Prince Fielder eclipsed the 30-home run mark for the sixth consecutive season, while racking up 108 RBIs.

Edge: Tigers

INTANGIBLES:

Oakland came from 13 games back to capture the AL West title and become the most improbable $59.5-million payroll division winners you’ll ever see. Two of the four teams in MLB history to previously come from 13-or-more games back went on to win the World Series.

The Tigers also had to come from behind to clinch a division title and have been hot down the stretch, going 15-7 over their final 22 games.

Edge: Athletics

PREDICTION: A’s in five games.

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NLDS Series Preview and Pick: Reds vs. Giants
By Covers.com

Cincinnati Reds (97-65) vs. San Francisco Giants (94-68)


Regular season head-to-head: The Reds won the season series 4-3. Three of the seven contests were decided by one run.

Series odds: Reds -140, Giants +120

PITCHING

The Reds’ starting rotation boasts four pitchers with ERAs under 4.00. The five starters were incredibly durable during the regular season, making every start except one. But the real strength of the Cincinnati ball club is its bullpen. Fireballer Aroldis Chapman leads a deep relief corps that registered a league-low 2.65 ERA this season.

Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain had a combined 6-1 record during San Francisco’s unforgettable championship run in 2010 and they’ll be joined by Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong down the stretch this year. The bullpen will certainly miss the playoff experience and swagger of closer Brian Wilson, but the group still features some power arms in Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla that should be able to close out games.

Edge: Giants

HITTING

The Cincinnati offense ranked 21st in the majors in runs per game (4.13) and 17th in team batting average (.251) this season. Slugger Joey Votto batted just .227 against Giants pitching this season and also injured his left knee sliding into third base on June 30 at San Francisco, which led to a six-week stint on the disabled list. The Reds still managed to put up runs in Votto’s absence because of other offensive contributors like Jay Bruce (34 homers, 99 RBIs) and Ryan Ludwick (26 homers).

San Francisco has an impressive 30-14 record since OF Melky Cabrera was suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs. Buster Posey has been a monster at the plate, becoming the first catcher to lead the NL in hitting (.336 BA) since Ernie Lombardi in 1942.

Edge: Reds

INTANGIBLES

Cincinnati put up the second best record in baseball, just a single game behind the Nationals. The Reds finished the campaign with 97 victories – their most in the regular season since the tail end of the Big Red Machine days in 1976.

The Giants finished with 94 wins, the most the franchise has had since 2003, when they won 100 games. Cain gets the ball for Game 1 on Saturday. He has surrendered a run in 21 1/3 innings postseason innings, all during the 2010 championship campaign.

Edge: Giants

PREDICTION: Giants in five games.

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MLB Playoffs

A's won last six games and eight of last nine to win AL West. Tigers are 8-2 in last 10 games (all vs Royals/Twins), were beneficiaries of White Sox' collapse to win AL Central. Detroit won season series 4-3; winning team scored 10+ run in four of seven games- Tigers won two of three here Sept 18-20; teams split four games in Oakland in May. Parker is 4-0, 2.65 in his last five starts; he allowed two runs in 5.2 IP in 3-1 loss to Tigers in May, which was his first MLB loss. Verlander is 4-0, 0.96 in his last four starts; he beat Oakland twice this year, allowing one run in 13 IP. He had to throw 122 pitches in only six inning against the A's Sept 19.

Reds-Giants both jogged into playoffs, weren't stressed much in September-- Reds are 10-6 in last 16 games- they were 4-3 against SF this year, splitting a four game series in late July, after winning two of three at home in April. All four games here stayed under total; two of three in Ohio went over. Cueto is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts; he allowed three runs (two ER) in six IP in losing his only start against Giants this season. Cain is 3-0, 1.67 in his last five starts; he was 0-2, 5.54 in two starts against the Reds this season. Giants are 11-5 in their last 16 games.

Armadillosports.com

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CINCINNATI (97 - 65) at SAN FRANCISCO (94 - 68) - 9:35 PM

JOHNNY CUETO (R) vs. MATT CAIN (R)

Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 8-22 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 94-68 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 94-68 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 60-37 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 43-25 (+17.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
CINCINNATI is 42-22 (+16.8 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
CINCINNATI is 97-65 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 47-34 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
CINCINNATI is 97-65 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CINCINNATI is 402-445 (+38.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 443-497 (+44.3 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
CUETO is 38-19 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CUETO is 38-18 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-3 (+1.4 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

JOHNNY CUETO vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
CUETO is 2-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 1.107.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

MATT CAIN vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
CAIN is 4-5 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.325.
His team's record is 4-6 (-4.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-4. (+1.2 units)


OAKLAND (94 - 68) at DETROIT (88 - 74) - 6:05 PM

JARROD PARKER (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)

Top Trends for this game.
VERLANDER is 38-11 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
VERLANDER is 38-11 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
VERLANDER is 24-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
VERLANDER is 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 58-35 (+27.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
OAKLAND is 22-11 (+11.6 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
OAKLAND is 49-38 (+21.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 27-19 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
OAKLAND is 94-68 (+37.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 38-36 (+33.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +200 since 1997.
OAKLAND is 44-37 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 88-65 (+32.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 64-41 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
OAKLAND is 62-39 (+32.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PARKER is 12-5 (+7.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
PARKER is 11-5 (+7.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 45-43 (-13.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
DETROIT is 88-74 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 84-71 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 51-48 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-3 (+0.1 Units) against OAKLAND this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.1 Units)

JARROD PARKER vs. DETROIT since 1997
PARKER is 0-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.17 and a WHIP of 1.764.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. OAKLAND since 1997
VERLANDER is 8-5 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 1.148.
His team's record is 8-6 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-9. (-4.9 units)

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OAKLAND vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 10 games on the road
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games   
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Oakland
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

CINCINNATI vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home

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Cincinnati at San Francisco
Cueto: Cincinnati 8-22 SU in October
Cain: San Francisco 33-13 SU after scoring 2 runs or less

Oakland at Detroit
Parker: Oakland 11-2 SU off 6+ division games
Verlander: Detroit 8-0 Over at home off 5+ road games

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