2012 Preakness Stakes Preview, Horse Racing Profiles & Odds
2012 Preakness Stakes Preview, Horse Racing Profiles & Odds
2012 Preakness Stakes Preview, Horse Racing Profiles & Odds
BALTIMORE, MD (The Spread) - The 137th Preakness Stakes goes May 19 from Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore and here is a look at the latest contenders for the Preakness.
The expected favorite is Bodemeister, trained by Bob Baffert, who finished second in the Kentucky Derby, after winning much of the race. I’ll Have Another, will have a chance at the Triple Crown, if he can win the shorter distance of the Preakness. Listed below is a look at each horse, their dosage, profile and analysis.
Bodemeister, by Empire Maker out of Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat, bred in Virginia
Owner: Zayat Stables
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
DP/DI/CD=9-9-1-0-2 3.00 0.72
Comments: He’ll be the favorite on Saturday and it’s well-deserved. He set blazing fractions in the Kentucky Derby and almost went wire-to-wire but did tire down the stretch. He won’t have to worry about another speedball like he did with Trinniberg at Churchill Downs. He should be able to get the lead and if Mike Smith can somehow contain his speed, he might just dominate the field. Baffert has won the Preakness five times with Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Point Given, War Emblem and Lookin at Lucky.
I’ll Have Another, by Flower Alley out of Arch’s gal, by Arch, bred in Kentucky
Owner: Paul Reddam
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierez
DP/DI/CD=2-4-7-1-0-2 2.11 0.50
Comments:The Derby winner comes to Pimlico with the usual champions confidence, after running down Bodemeister in the stretch in the Derby to score 15-1. He’s won three straight Graded races and only has one blip on his resume’, a sixth in last year’s Hopeful at Saratoga. He won’t be the favorite on Saturday, but it certainly wouldn’t surprise anyone if we’re looking at a potential Triple Crown contender in three weeks at Belmont Park.
Went The Day Well, by Proud Citizen out of Tiz Maie’s Day, by Tiznow, bred in New York
Owners: Team Valor International Year Starts 1st 2nd 3rd Won
Trainer: Graham Motion
Jockey: John Velazquez
DP/DI/CD=4-1-11-0-0 1.91 0.46
Comments: Graham Motion brings the son of Proud Citizen to the Preakness after a strong fourth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. More impressive was his finish after you consider the trip he had to endure, as he was in traffic, got bumped, and had to go seven wide before he finally was able to get going. Team Valor, Motion, and jockey John Velazquez might still be stinging from last year when Animal Kingdom just missed winning the Preakness after his Derby triumph. Look for this one to continue to improve and be a good price on Saturday.
Creative Cause, by Giant’s Causeway out of Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer, bred in Kentucky
Owners: Heinz Steinmann
Trainer: Mike Harrington
Jockey: Joel Rosario
DP/DI/CD=3-2-23-0-0 1.43 0.29
Comments: Mike Harrington comes to Baltimore for the first time with this hard knocking son of Giant’s Causeway. He’s been as consistent as anyone in the field, having finished in the money in 8 of 9 career starts. His only “off the board” performance was a very good fifth in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. He’s always there, and is working well up to this race. Don’t discount.
Daddy Nose Best, by Scatt Daddy out of Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch, bred in Kentucky
Owner: Cathy & Bob Zollars
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
DP/DI/CD=5-1-5-1-0 2.43 0.83
Comments: Daddy Nose Best was one of the real “wise guy” horses at the Kentucky Derby, but pretty much was a non-factor throughout the race. He should be fresh for Saturday and is working well this week. He gets jockey Julien Leparoux back after having Garret Gomez in Kentucky. Leparoux was his regular ride and was aboard for wins in the Sunland Derby and the El Camino Real earlier this season. We expect a much better performance this weekend at Pimlico.
Teeth of the Dog, by Bluegrass Cat out of Deputy Reality, by Deputy Minister, bred in Kentucky
Owner: JW Singer Year Starts 1st 2nd 3rd Won
Trainer: Michael Matz
Jockey: Joe Bravo
DP/DI/CD=5-3-8-0-0 3.00 0.81
Comments: The well-bred son of Bluegrass Cat out of a Deputy Minister mare ran a pretty good third in the Wood Memorial, rallying to third behind Gemologist & Alpha and definitely seems to be on the improve. Trainer Matz is slowly getting over the disappointment of Union Rags’ miserable Derby, and that one will point to the Belmont. We don’t expect Teeth of the Dog to win the Preakness, but he’ll be one to watch later in the year.
Zetterholm, by Silver Train out of Holy Wish, by Lord at War bred in New York
Owner: Winter Park Partners
Trainer: Richard Dutrow
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
DP/DI/CD=3-2-9-0-0 2.11 0.57
Comments: This colt looks like a sprinter, having never gone past a mile, and being out of Silver Train, who was a champion sprinter in his day. He’s another who runs really well from off the pace, assuming he doesn’t get too tired going longer than he’s ever gone. He should have a nice future, bur probably sprinting.
Optimizer, by English Channel out of Indy Pick, by AP Indy, bred in Kentucky
Owner: Bluegrass Hall LLC
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Jon Court
Comments: D. Wayne Lukas returns to Baltimore, where he has won five Preakness Stakes in his brilliant career. A lot would have to fall apart up front for Lukas to get his sixth win, however, Optimizer hasn’t shown much against this level of competition, running ninth in the Arkansas Derby, and 11th in the Kentucky Derby. He did close for a strong second in the Rebel back in March, but that wasn’t a very strong field as none of those horses went on to the Derby.
Tiger Walk, by Tale of the Cat out of Majestic Trail, by Kris S. Bred, bred in Kentucky
Owner: Sagamore Farm
Trainer: Ignacio Correas
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
DP/DI/CD=6-4-15-1-0 2.06 0.58
Comments: Local ownership (Sagamore Farms) brings the best of the “new shooters” to the Preakness in Tiger Walk. This Tale of the Cat colt has faced some of the stronger 3-year olds and run pretty respectable, finishing fourth in the Wood and third in the Withers to the likes of Gemologist, Alpha and Hansen. Preakness-winning jockey Desormeaux (Real Quiet, Big Brown) gets the mount at the track that made him famous.
Cozzetti, by Cozzene out of Lemon Drop Cello, by Lemon Drop Kid, bred in Kentucky
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
DP/DI/CD=4-6-14-4-0 1.55 0.36
Comments: Dale Romans brings this son of Cozzene to the Preakness after a third-place finish to Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby. Cozzetti looks to have changed his running style in the last few races, as he’s coming from off the pace and finding some success with that style. Could be a possibility for the bottom of some exotics this weekend
Pretension, by Bluegrass Cat out of Main Streetin, by Street Cry, bred in New York
Owner: Kidwells Petite Stable
Trainer: Christopher Grove
Jockey: Javier Santiago
DP/DI/CD=5-3-8-0-0 3.00 0.81
Comments: Don’t really understand this placement to be honest. Pretension was destroyed in the Illinois Derby and the Gotham, in his only races vs. this type of competition. One positive is that he does own a win over this Pimlico racetrack, winning a small stakes race on Derby day. Chris Grove is a successful trainer locally and this this horse deserves a shot.
Re: 2012 Preakness Stakes Preview, Horse Racing Profiles & Odds
Preakness Stakes Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
Fresh off their 1-2 finish in the G1 Kentucky Derby two weeks ago at Churchill Downs, I'll Have Another and Bodemeister are the main attractions for Saturday's G1 Preakness at Pimlico, the second Jewel of the Triple Crown. In all, six Derby runners are back in Baltimore for the Preakness while five new shooters will look to leave their mark on an American classic.
Let's break it down!!
1 - Tiger Walk 30/1
Notes: Trainer "Nacho" Correas adds blinkers for this, a move I never understood as this isn't just some race: it's the Preakness!!! For as long as I live I will not get trainers making equipment changes in big races but that's what he's doing. He hasn't made much noise since breaking his maiden four starts back in his first dirt start though he did manage to grab minor shares in the G3 Withers, G3 Gotham and G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his last three. Obviously a cut below but Desormeaux sure knows his way around Pimlico and has two Preakness wins under his belt. In what's become the norm for him, a minor award is probably his ceiling. **Note -- Jockey Ramon Dominguez replaces Kent Desormeaux, who was removed after failing a Breathalyzer test. This will be the 10th Preakness for Dominguez, who finished second aboard Scrappy T in 2005 and First Dude in 2010.
2 - Teeth of the Dog 15/1
Notes: Matz returns to the scene of what probably qualifies as one of the saddest days of his life as Pimlico is where the ill-fated Barbaro broke down passing the stands for the first time in the 2006 renewal. The romantics out there have that in the back of their minds too, I can almost guarantee it and that just means more "bad" money on this guy. He did manage to get third in the Wood Memorial last out at 53/1 but someone had to and the first two finishers didn't run a step between them last out in Louisville. His biggest impact on the race will come in the first five furlongs or so as he appears to have some speed but I doubt he'll be around when it really counts.
3 - Pretension 30/1
Notes: Posted a minor upset in a minor stakes at Pimlico on Derby Day but it was in a suspect five horse field. Runner-up Brimstone Island was declared from the Preakness earlier in the week with his trainer saying he wasn't right while third place finisher My Adonis was the lone AE in the Derby field, took a van to Louisville the previous Tuesday then vanned back east on Friday morning when he was scratched from the Derby. His two starts against graded stakes competition earlier this year in the Gotham and G3 Illinois Derby weren't good at all. Like Teeth of the Dog, he has some speed to have an effect on things early but should be far back late.
4 - Zetterholm 20/1
Notes: Interesting week for Dutrow as he'll saddle this colt in the Preakness then fight for his professional life in court a few days later as he's staring down the barrel of a ten year ban. Since taking over his training at the beginning of the year, Zetterholm has improved with each start and has won his last three, albeit all have come against New York breds. He's gaining ground at the end of each of his starts, a great sign especially when you consider he's taking on about an extra eight of a mile or so and I like that Dutrow is sticking with the up-and-coming Alvarado who's been aboard for his last two scores. If the pace is quick, and I imagine it will be, this guy will be coming late. In my opinion, he holds the best chance out of all the new shooters at upsetting the Derby runners.
5 - Went the Day Well 6/1
Notes: These connections fell a ½ length short of turning Belmont into a mad(der?) house last year when their Derby winner Animal Kingdom came that close to nailing Shackleford on the line. The question is did they, more specifically Johnny V, learn anything from last year? Animal Kingdom was too far back and it cost him. This guy didn't have the best break last out and had to close from far back but his earlier races lead me to believe he will be much, much closer to the pace on Saturday. If he is, he could very well be the one to pick up the pieces. It'll be his second start with blinkers, an angle I like a bit better than first time blinkers especially with younger horses, and unlike some others, has done some of his best work on shorter rest as evident by his G3 Spiral score coming just three weeks after his maiden victory. A top tier prospect for me.
6 - Creative Cause 6/1
Notes: I can't remember my opinion changing more about a horse than it has about this colt over the past few months. When they hit the wire in the G1 B.C. Juvenile last year, he was my Derby horse. But as this winter wore on I started falling out of love with him. I don't like that he can get goofy in the stretch or the fact that he shipped back to California after the Derby then back east for this, but the thing I hate most is that he lacks the knockout punch. He just can't seem to finish the job. Yeah, he was wide in Kentucky but plenty of horses were and he almost always seems to be wide so it's really not an excuse. He just doesn't finish the game and I still think he has soundness issues. He's starting to get the "wiseguy" vibe too, which I love in this case because I'm tossing him out completely.
7 - Bodemeister 8/5
Notes: "By the time 2012 comes to an end there's a good chance they'll be erecting statues of this colt," is how I started my Derby Breakdown about this guy. It may still happen, but I'd like to take the statement back officially. Now, he may go about his business and cropdust the other ten runners in here but he won't be doing it with my money on his nose to win. I couldn't believe he was on the lead in the Derby over Trinniberg and originally though it was Smith's fault. Obviously I was wrong since he's back in the saddle so I have to think that Baffert told him to do it which blows my mind. And I have to think he'll be cutting the pace again. This will be his sixth race in 125 days and while that wouldn't ordinarily be a deal-breaker for me, it is when it's the first six starts of your career as a three-year-old, especially when the last two came in a 9 ½ length romp in a quick time and in the Derby where he went 22 and change, 45 and change, 09 and change and a flat mile in 1:35. Ten other Derby runners went a sub :46 half in front; none of them finished better than tenth. That may make him a freak, but in my book, a freak would have gotten to that wire first in Louisville and he didn't. Combine that with the fact that he'll be the big favorite and will probably get some cheap speed to keep him company early and I can't see him winning. I'll use him underneath in gimmicks in case no one else fires but not on top.
8 - Daddy Nose Best 12/1
Notes: As I get older, I realize just how many stupid things I've done in my life and one of the things I've done numerous times up until a few years back is fall for horses like him, ones that weren't being considered for a race before being thrown into the ring at the eleventh hour. Asmussen was thinking about running two or three others in here and didn't even mention this guy until he declared the others. Some vote of confidence, huh? Was getting a ton of attention heading into the first Saturday in May and unlike some others that probably weren't 100 percent going in or had legitimate trouble during the race, this guy just didn't fire. You could draw a line through it if you like (another line I refuse to fall for anymore) but keep in mind that his lone dirt win came after a ridiculously fast early pace that he took advantage of over one of the aforementioned Asmussen runners that isn't in here. Not for me.
9 - I'll Have Another 5/2
Notes: I would never, ever, ever take anything away from the Kentucky Derby winner; I have too much respect for the race to do that but even his connections would admit they couldn't have scripted this years' Run for the Roses any better. He drew outside any of the early traffic trouble, managed to save ground even though he broke from post 19 and never had a straw in his path en route to a solid victory. Odds are that simply will not happen again. Perfect trips are a supremely rare commodity so getting back-to-back ones is improbable to say the least. He had Trinniberg to do the dirty work last time but if Teeth of the Dog or Pretension don't leave out of there he'll be the one chasing Bodemeister which will not only make Gutierrez use him more in the early running but it'll also take him a bit out of his element as he likes to stalk and pounce, not chase and battle. He's a fresh horse, having run just three times this year but I'm sure there is a reason or reasons for that too. He's in my top tier but he may actually need to be the superhorse and not Bodemeister if he's to win this.
10 - Optimizer 30/1
Notes: Really, D. Wayne? REALLY?!?!? What can he possibly be telling his owners that they allow him to run this horse in here - he put in the greatest eleventh place finish in Derby history? He's started seven times on dirt and ran good once. ONCE!! At least he gets a money Triple Crown rider in Nakatani whose next win in a Triple Crown race will be his first. What a joke.
11 - Cozzetti 30/1
Notes: Shackleford was as gutsy as they come on the front end the entire way last year for Romans to get his trainer his only Triple Crown race win to date. If this guy follows in his stablemates' hoofprints he'll likely come from dead last to win. His last two were sneaky good even though he only managed minor awards and the post won't matter since he'll be far back early anyway. I'm not sure he can win unless everything goes picture perfect but I can see him spicing up the exotic wagers. Using him underneath.