NHL Betting News and Notes Friday 4/20

NHL Betting News and Notes Friday 4/20

Friday's Best NHL Bets
By Covers.com

Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins (-180, 7)

After getting blown out 10-3 in Game 4, the Flyers are probably glad to be at the Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh, where they’ve won seven of their last eight games. The Flyers believe they’re still in control of the series.

"Yeah, we gave them a little life, but at the same time we're still up 3-1," said Claude Giroux, who has five goals and five assists in the series.

Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal combined for six goals and three assists to key the offensive fireworks on Wednesday. Crosby, who was labeled the "Cowardly Penguin" on the cover of the Philadelphia Daily News, has eight points in the series. Malkin, who netted a career-high 50 goals this season, recorded his first two of the series and Staal collected his first postseason hat trick.

The Pens exploded without 40-goal scorer James Neal, who was suspended for the contest following Sunday's antics. The teams have combined for 45 goals, making it the highest-scoring series through four games in NHL history.

Philadelphia goaltenders Ilya Bryzgalov and Sergei Bobrovsky permitted five goals on 18 shots apiece in Game 4.

The over is 5-0-1 in the teams’ last six meetings in Pittsburgh. There's a reason this total is so high.

Pick: Over

Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators (-125, 5)

The writers in Detroit are talking about breaking up the Red Wings, who trail 3-1 for the third time in their last four playoff series.

The Preds aren’t taking anything for granted.

“The two games in Detroit, we could have been on the other end,” coach Barry Trotz said. “We’ve had some good goaltending. We’ve had some timely goals. We’ve had some pretty good penalty kill.”

Trotz smartly gave the players off Wednesday, giving valuable rest to Ryan Suter, Shea Weber and goalie Pekka Rinne. Even though the Red Wings are peppering Rinne with shots, he is simply stoning them.

Counting the regular season, the Red Wings have beaten Nashville only once in their last six tries.

Pick: Predators

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Oddsmakers Post Rare 7-Goal Total for Penguins-Flyers Game 5
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

To steal a line from classic hockey trash talk, the red light’s been on so much the goalie’s got a sunburn on the back of his neck.

For the sake of Marc-Andre Fleury and Ilya Bryzgalov, we hope they’ve lathered on the SPF 50 heading into Game 5 of this Eastern Conference opening-round series. If the massive 7-goal total for Friday’s contest is any indication, both netminders are going to need all the protection they can get.

“I don’t remember seeing a total that high in I can’t remember how long,” says Jeff Sherman, an oddsmaker at the LVH in Las Vegas. “But I haven’t seen a playoff series like this in I can’t remember how long.”

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers have combined for 45 goals in the first four games – an NHL playoff record – and the Penguins picked up their first win of the series by a 10-3 score Wednesday night, becoming the first team to net 10 or more in a postseason game since the Los Angeles Kings in 1990. The combined goalie save percentage in this series is .765. That means almost 2.5 goals are scored every 10 shots.

Hockey bettors expected a high-scoring series between these state rivals. Pittsburgh boasts perhaps the deepest scoring attack in the NHL and the Flyers, who finished third in scoring this season, have four 20-goal scorers on the roster along with two others with 19.

After watching the teams light the lamp with ease through the first four games, sportsbooks dished out a 6.5-goal total for Game 4 (the LVH was the only book to post a 7), with the Penguins’ playoff lives on the line. Now, oddsmakers are venturing into unknown territory with the 7-goal number and getting mixed results according to the early action.

There hasn't been a 7-goal total posted in an NHL game since April, 2007 and this is only the second time since the lockout we've seen a 7-goal total in a playoff game, according to the Covers.com database.

Mike Colbert, race and sportsbook director for Cantor Gaming in Nevada, says there has been some money on the under but that, throughout the series, the action on the over is eclipsing the under at a 75-25 percent rate.

Sherman also reported early bets on the under for Game 5, but he doesn’t expect that to slow down the flood of over money.

“In my mind, I thought we should shade the under a bit,” says Colbert. “I can’t recall a series like this off the top of my head. If there are any sharp hockey guys out there, maybe a few come out of the woodwork to bet the under.”

Books set Pittsburgh as a -180 home favorite for Game 5. Philadelphia is priced at +165.

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NHL Preview

Flyers @ Penguins -- 45 goals in first four series games is an NHL record, with Pittsburgh scoring 13 first period goals, yet they're down 3-1; they're 1-5 in last six home games vs Philly. Flyers won 10 of last 13 games overall, eight of last 11 vs Pitt; they're 9-15 on power play in series, Penguins 7-21. Pittsburgh lost four of last six home games overall; they lost Games 1-2 of series at home, even though they led 3-0/3-1 after first period. Flyers won seven of last ten games on foreign ice- they gave up the last eight goals in Game 4's 10-3 loss.

Predators @ Red Wings -- Winning team scored three goals in all four games in series, with losing team outshooting winners 59-22 in third period; Preds won five of last six games vs Detroit, with all five totals 5 or less. Detroit lost seven of last ten games overall, scoring three goals in last two games despite 84-44 edge in shots on goal. Nashville won seven of last nine games, allowing total of eight goals in the wins. Team that led after the first period is 3-0 in this series. Nashville is 2-19 on power play in series, Red Wings 4-21.

Armadillosports.com

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PHILADELPHIA (50-27-0-9, 109 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (52-27-0-7, 111 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-37 ATS (-18.9 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 19-6 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 26-19 ATS (+48.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 ATS (+26.6 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 2-7 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games in the first round of the playoffs over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 21-25 ATS (-27.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 11-15 ATS (-12.2 Units) after a division game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 12-10 (+4.0 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 12-10-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.6 Units)


DETROIT (49-31-0-6, 104 pts.) at NASHVILLE (51-27-0-8, 110 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 5-9 ATS (-9.4 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game this season.
DETROIT is 12-15 ATS (-11.0 Units) after a division game this season.
NASHVILLE is 50-35 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NASHVILLE is 29-20 ATS (+3.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NASHVILLE is 17-10 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NASHVILLE is 31-17 ATS (+10.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
NASHVILLE is 19-9 ATS (+8.8 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
NASHVILLE is 18-9 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a division game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 12-10 (+4.4 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 12-10-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
12 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.7 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

DETROIT vs. NASHVILLE
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Nashville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Nashville is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

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Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Philadelphia: 8-3 SU at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh: 3-10 SU off BB division games

Detroit at Nashville
Detroit: 3-8 SU off home loss
Nashville: 19-9 SU vs. division

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