Australian Open Odds: Day 9 Match Analysis and Picks

Australian Open Odds: Day 9 Match Analysis and Picks

Australian Open Odds: Day 9 Match Analysis and Picks
By Ricky Dimon
Covers.com

ROGER FEDERER (-1.5 SETS, -200) VS. JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO (+1.5 SETS, +130)

Is Del Potro all the way back to the form that propelled him to the 2009 U.S. Open title (he beat Federer in a five-set final)?

After a slow start Down Under, Del Potro is crushed his last three opponents. It should be noted, though, that he benefited from a section of the draw in which seeds tumbled left and right. The Argentine will be back in the Top 10 after this tourney, but the jury is still out on whether he’s as good or better as any of the big four in men’s tennis.

We know what we’re getting with Federer though. He’s the hottest player on tour right now with that 24-match winning streak dating back to last fall. Federer leads the head-to-head series with Del Potro 7-2.

Del Potro may take a set, but his consistency and fitness are not back to the point where he will take more than that.

Pick: Federer -1.5 sets

RAFAEL NADAL (-5.5 GAMES, -130) VS. TOMAS BERDYCH (+5.5 GAMES, EVEN)

It has been bad news for Berdych ever since striking the last ball against Nicolas Almagro. He refused to shake Almagro's hand and was abused by the Melbourne crowd with constant booing during his post-match interview.

Obviously the fans are not going to be a deciding factor in this quarterfinal showdown, but the night-session crowd will be firmly behind Nadal (they would be even without the Berdych-Almagro incident) and they won't be afraid to show it.

Then after getting past Almagro, Berdych learned his next opponent would be nemesis Rafael Nadal. The stats are alarming to say the least. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 10-3 and it's really much worse than that. The Spaniard has won nine in a row over Berydch and has won an amazing 21 of their last 22 contested sets.

Berdych is coming off a brutal four-setter, while Nadal is Mr. Straight Sets at this tourney. This won’t end well for the Czech.

Pick: Nadal -5.5 games

CAROLINE WOZNIACKI VS, KIM CLIJSTERS (OVER/UNDER 21.5 GAMES)

Normally Clijsters would be a considerable favorite to take this match, but she survived a three-set thriller against Li Na (Clijsters saved four match points) on Sunday and she rolled her left ankle in the process. As a result, there is good chance Wonziacki will make this competitive if not win the match altogether.

Wozniacki hasn’t dropped a set so far Down Under and she is coming off a 6-0, 7-5 victory over Jelena Jankovic. Still, she has no real firepower to hurt Clijsters with, so it's hard to imagine a blowout win in Wozniacki's favor. All signs point to a long, drawn-out tussle that could go either way.

Pick: Over 21.5 games (-135)

VICTORIA AZARENKA VS. AGNIESZKA RADWANSKA (OVER/UNDER 21.5 GAMES)

Azarenka has been on fire at the Australian Open, but this isn’t a particularly favorable matchup. She is a huge hitter off the ground, but her game can break down against counter-punchers (pushers, if you will) and great defensive players. Azarenka wants to end points quickly rather than be forced to hit ball after ball.

The head-to-head history confirms it. Azarenka leads Radwanska by a relative close 6-3 margin and almost every match has been competitive. Radwanska beat the world No. 3 last fall in Tokyo and took her to three sets earlier this month in Sydney.

Azarenka has dropped a mere 12 games through four rounds, but Radwanska has lost only 10 in her last three matches. This should be closer than expected.

Pick: Over 21.5 games (Even)

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