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Australian Open Odds: Day 4 Match Analysis and Picks

Australian Open Odds: Day 4 Match Analysis and Picks

Australian Open Odds: Day 3 Match Analysis and Picks
By Ricky Dimon
Covers.com

GILLES SIMON (-150) VS. JULIEN BENNETEAU (+110)

On paper, this all-French Australian Open showdown should not be as competitive as the oddsmakers suggest. Simon leads the head-to-head series 4-1 over Benneteau. He has won all three of their hard-court meetings and has not dropped a set in any of those matches.

Both players are in fine form at the moment. Simon reached the Sydney semis two weeks ago and overcame Danai Udomchoke in five sets on Tuesday. Benneteau finished runner-up last week in Sydney, but the final was delayed by rain and was pushed back to Sunday. This is a ton of tennis for Benneteau, and maybe too much (Sydney champion Jarkko Nieminen retired in his first-round match).

Pick: Simon

ALEX BOGOMOLOV (-120) VS. MICHAEL LLODRA (-120)

Bogomolov and Llodra are seemingly at the same points in their careers (Bogo is 28 and Llodra is 31), but that really isn't the case. Llodra was horrendous throughout the second half of last season, losing his last six ATP-level matches. The Frenchman managed to beat Ernests Gulbis in Round 1 on Tuesday, but beating Gulbis is nothing to write home about.

On the other hand, Bogomolov came out of absolutely nowhere in 2011. The perennial journeyman beat Andy Murray in Miami and never looked back, climbing to as high as No. 33 in the world. Bogomolov already has a 4-1 match record this season, which includes a quarterfinal showing in Sydney and a first-round rout of Daniel Gimeno-Traver here at Melbourne.

Pick: Bogomolov

PARLAY: NICOLAS MAHUT (-250) VS. TATSUMA ITO (+175) AND GAEL MONFILS (-450) VS. THOMAZ BELLUCCI (+275)

Mahut will always be known for the Wimbledon match against John Isner and nothing else, but he is healthy and playing solid tennis. An underdog in round one, the Frenchman dismissed No. 29 seed Radek Stepanek in straight sets. Ito benefited from an incredible draw to get the first main-draw Grand Slam win over his career. He beat clay-court specialist Potito Starace, who is now 0-7 lifetime at the Australian Open.

Throw in Monfils, who is a virtual lock to make quick work of Bellucci. The Frenchman was brilliant during the second half of last season and he opened 2012 with a runner-up finish in Doha, where he beat Rafael Nadal in the semis. On clay this could be relatively interesting. On a hard court, not so much.

Pick: Mahut and Monfils

PARLAY: SORANA CIRSTEA (-250) VS. URSZULA RADWANSKA (+175) AND MARIA KIRILENKO (-330) VS. ALEKSANDRA WOZNIAK (+220)

Cirstea is the proud owner of the upset of the tournament so far, having ousted Australian hope and U.S. Open champion Sam Stosur in straight sets on Tuesday. Granted Stosur is always terrible at her home Grand Slam, but Cirstea played stellar tennis in the surprise victory. Radwanksa, the much more obscure of the two Polish sisters, did well to get out of her first-round match against qualifier Alison Riske. The world No. 99, though, is in for a much different test on Thursday.

Just as Urszula should not be confused with Agnieszka, Wozniack should not be confused with Wozniacki. The Canadian is down at No. 102 in the world and she lost her only previous matchup with Kirilenko in easy straight sets. Kirilenko looked good--in more ways than one--in a blowout win over Jarmila Gajdosova on Tuesday.

Pick: Cirstea and Kirilenko

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