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U.S. Open Picks: Day 13 Odds and Matchup Analysis
By Ricky Dimon

NOVAK DJOKOVIC (-187) VS. ROGER FEDERER (+150)

Djokovic is a ridiculous 62-2 this season, and one of those losses came via retirement. His only legitimate setback of the entire year? That came at the hands of Federer, in the French Open semifinals. Djokovic has still won three of the last four in the series, but Federer’s victory in their most recent clash gives the Swiss a 14-9 lifetime record against the current world No. 1.

If Federer got the best of Djokovic on clay, what’s to say he cannot do it on a hard court? Clay clearly favors the Serb, while Federer has always excelled on fast hard courts. And the U.S. Open has been the second best tournament of his illustrious career behind Wimbledon. Plus, the 16-time Grand Slam champion is playing even better right now. He thrashed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals, while Djokovic has looked relatively vulnerable. With these kinds of odds, Federer is too good to pass up.

Pick: FEDERER

RAFAEL NADAL (-250) VS. ANDY MURRAY (+200)

Both head-to-head history and current form during this tournament favor Nadal in this semifinal. The defending U.S. Open champion is 12-4 lifetime against Murray, has won four in a row, and has taken seven of their last nine meetings. Of course, that’s not to say this is going to be a rout. Murray has earned a set in three of the last four and their semifinal at Roland Garros was relatively competitive. On a hard court, Murray will obviously have a better chance.

As for this U.S. Open, Nadal has recovered from a lackluster summer to show signs of recapturing his 2010 glory. The Spaniard is yet to lose a set and he absolutely annihilated Andy Roddick on Friday -- an especially crucial result since he gets zero rest. Murray, on the other hand, needed five sets to get past Robin Haase in round two and he is coming off a three-hour, 24-minute match against John Isner.

Pick: NADAL

SAMANTHA STOSUR VS. ANGELIQUE KERBER (OVER/UNDER 19.5 GAMES)

Ranked 92nd in the world, Kerber has come out of nowhere to reach her first Grand Slam semifinal. Full credit goes to her, but the German has also taken advantage of an incredible draw. Stosur, a finalist at the 2010 French Open, will be far more comfortable in this situation. The Aussie is coming off a straight-set destruction of world No. 2 Vera Zvonareva.

Pick: UNDER 19.5 (-105)

SERENA WILLIAMS VS. CAROLINE WOZNIACKI (OVER/UNDER 19.5 GAMES)

Wozniacki has never won a Grand Slam title and this could be the point where she tightens up under intense pressure. She almost did it against Svetlana Kuznetsova and Andrea Petkovic, but those opponents could not capitalize. Williams is another story. The tournament favorite is going to have a field day on Wozniacki’s puffcake serves and moonball groundstrokes.

Pick: Under 19.5 (Even)