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U.S. Open Picks: Day 10 Odds and Matchup Analysis
By Ricky Dimon

ROGER FEDERER (-1.5 SETS) VS. JO-WILFRIED TSONGA

Federer and Tsonga and have squared off twice this summer—at Wimbledon and in Montreal. Both matches went the distance and Tsonga pulled off the upset both times. Federer, though, is playing with confidence and when he is playing with confidence it is nothing short of scary. The world No. 3 has dropped only one set through four rounds and none of the other 12 sets has been closer than 6-4. On Monday, Federer annihilated Juan Monaco in one hour and 22 minutes and his winners-to-errors ratio was 2 to 1. Granted, Tsonga is far more dangerous than Monaco, but he coming off a five-setter against Mardy Fish in which the difference was Fish completely wearing out in the fifth.

Pick: FEDERER -1.5 (-160)

NOVAK DJOKOVIC VS. JANKO TIPSAREVIC (OVER/UNDER 29.5 GAMES)

The last time these two good friends and fellow Serbs were supposed to go head-to-head (this spring in Belgrade), Djokovic got a walkover. It won’t be quite that easy this time, but it will be little more than a walk in the park. Djokovic, who is 2-0 lifetime against Tipsarevic, is 61-2 this season and he has not dropped a set so far in New York. Tipsarevic needed almost four hours to get past Juan Carlos Ferrero on Monday and he was suffering from an apparent leg injury, albeit minor. Nothing suggests Tipsarevic can make this competitive.

Pick: UNDER 29.5 (-115)

RAFAEL NADAL VS. GILLES MULLER (OVER/UNDER 3.5 SETS)

There’s the Gilles Muller who flies under the radar for 50 weeks of the year, then there’s the Gilles Muller who surfaces for a fortnight at the U.S. Open. When he is in Flushing Meadows, he is a bona fide force. The Luxembourgian stunned Andy Roddick in 2005 and made it to the quarterfinals as a qualifier in 2008. He took out an in-form Ernests Gulbis in round two and completely crushed Igor Kunitsyn on Sunday. Muller is 1-2 lifetime against Nadal, with a win at Wimbledon in 2005 and a close one at the All-England Club this summer. On a fast hard court, the underdog has an even better chance.

Pick: OVER 3.5 (+160)

CAROLINE WOZNIACKI VS. ANDREA PETKOVIC (OVER/UNDER 21.5 GAMES)

Wozniacki is a big favorite in this U.S. Open quarterfinal, but it’s hard to imagine her blowing out Petkovic. The Dane did just that on the clay courts of Stuttgart earlier this season, but clay gives her a huge advantage. They faced each other on the Miami hard courts back in March and Petkovic won the match 7-5, 3-6, 6-3. Petkovic has been in fine form this summer and after struggling in round two, the German crushed her two most recent opponents. Wozniacki, who slumped prior to winning New Haven, needed more than three hours to get past Svetlana Kuznetsova on Monday. This one should be a thriller.

Pick: OVER 21.5 (EVEN)