Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

MR EAST

NCAAB TUESDAY UNDER THE RADAR SPECIAL

NORTHERN IOWA @ WICHITA ST.
3 UNITS: NORTHERN IOWA

Wichita St. has been one of the biggest surprises this season at 16-3, which includes a flawless 11-0 at home. The problem the Shockers face here is they have 16 wins, but none stand out as a big win, so the schedule has been very soft to date. Panthers are not a shock at 16-1 as they returned everyone from a good team a year ago. They aren't only winning they are playing over the line at 10-1 ATS in their last 11. This team is huge inside with Koch and Eglseder, and very deep. Panthers are 56-24 ATS in their last 80 as a dog, and 28-10 ATS in their last 38 overall, well under the radar, and have covered 5 of the last 6 here. I'll go with Northern Iowa in this one.

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Brandon Lang

10 DIME - TORONTO RAPTORS - Sluggish spot for the Cavs.

After a successful 5 game west coast road trip which saw them win 3 out of 5 they return home to take on a surging Raptors team with the world champion Lakers coming to town on Thursday.

Who can fault the Cavs for lacking attention to detail tonight.

Furthermore, they haven't really been a cash cow lately, on a 2-7 run ATS with the only two covers versus the Wizards at home and the Trailblazers on the road.

As for Toronto, they are surging big time after a very slow start.

Winners of 10 of their last 13 SU with their 3 losses coming to the Celtics by 7 at home and in Boston and a road clunker at Indiana by 4, they are without question playing their best ball of the entire year right now.

All told is a 9-4 run ATS and a bucket here or there and that 9-4 ATS number could very easily be 12-1 against the number.

I will gladly grab the Toronto in this spot and the generous amount of points against a Cavs squad who will definitly be a bit jet lagged and lacking a bit of focus laying this big number with the Lakers coming to town in 2 days.

Rolling with the Raptors.

FREE SELECTION - NORTHERN IOWA PANTHERS

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David  Malinsky

4* TORONTO over CLEVELAND

Toronto is flying far beneath the radar screens right now, despite a current 10-3 run in which none of the losses have come by more than seven points. That is what happens when you get off to a slow start, and the markets downgrade accordingly. But there were some prime reasons why the season began so poorly, and those early results now carry too much weight going forward, especially when we see tonight’s line reach double figures.The Raptors started with an awkward opening salvo that saw them play their first 30 games in only 53 days, a headache for a team breaking in so many new faces, and at the midway point their difficult of opposition rates #4 in the NBA. The following from Jay Triano deals with that well - "We knew it was going to be tough, we had nine new guys. Now we're starting to feel better about each other, we're starting to get it. We're starting to play better defence and our stats over the last few games have been good. We've adjusted, as coaches, our defensive philosophy a little bit and it's turning out better. We're playing more to our strengths, we have guys who are starting to get healthy. Here is the real key to that statement – it came before Toronto waxed Dallas 110-88 on Sunday in what might have been their best single game of the season, which takes the confidence to an even higher level. And with this game being only their third in eight days there is a physical energy to match that confidence – they are going to be a tough team to get a margin against in this setting.Not that Cleveland will be margin conscious anyway. The Cavaliers face the usual issues in returning home after a long Western Coast swing (this will be the first home game in 13 days), and tonight’s matchup is clouded even more because of that showdown vs. the Lakers looming on national television Thursday night. Their season is all about winning games for playoff positioning and managing the minutes of LeBron and the key cogs, and as such it is no surprise to find that they are 4-8 ATS when favored in double figures, a run that extends to 7-15 since the All Star break last February. Mike Brown would be more than happy to simply stamp a “W” and move on here, and given the current Toronto form that is all that his team is likely to get.


4* GEORGIA TECH over CLEMSON

In what will be a high energy game in which both teams will run and press the length of the floor, PG play becomes the key factor in terms of dictating the game flow. And the markets have missed their mark in evaluating that key element.Despite a 13-4 record, and owning wins over Duke and North Carolina, Georgia Tech is not being rated properly because PG Iman Shumpert had to miss a half dozen games, one of them an O.T. loss to Florida State that would have likely been reversed had he played. Now he is back to full health, and in Saturday’s win at North Carolina showed what he is capable of, scoring 30 points and adding six assists, four rebounds and three steals. His veteran presence takes pressure off of those young talents on the roster, and makes the Yellow Jackets awfully difficult to match up against physically – not only is the front court among the most talented in the nation, but at 6-5 Shumpert creates particular problems at his position (from Paul Hewitt - ”He is bigger, stronger and faster than a lot of the other guards he is going to face, which forces them to contract on defense and makes it easier for us to run our offense.”).That becomes magnified tonight because we fully expect Shumpert’s direct matchup to be against 5-9 SO Andre Young, who will likely be making his first college start while Demontez Stitt sits out with a sprained foot. Stitt had been having an outstanding season, and was a catalyst for the Clemson uptempo tactics on both ends of the floor, but he went down with 13:37 to play and the Tigers up by 13 at N. C. State on Saturday, and his absence became an issue immediately – the lead was shaved all the way to a single point before they finally escaped. And while his official listing is “Questionable”, Oliver Purnell seems resigned to not having him around - ”“We’ve probably got to play a bit different offensively – ball ahead, more motion, more movement by everybody. It’s his slicing to the basket, it’s him pushing the ball that won’t be there.” Now a lot is being put in the hands of Young, who is also not 100 percent, having to receive at IV after practice yesterday because of a bout with a stomach virus. That exacerbates the size and experience that he already gives up against Shumpert, and with no one behind him that can carry the load there are going to be some awkward stretches against a tenacious Georgia Tech defense. Even if Stitt can make an appearance (he could only job on the sidelines at practice yesterday), he will be far from 100 percent.The Yellow Jackets are 7th in the nation in FG defense, allowing 37.0 percent, and in those key early A.C.C. wins they held Duke to 19 below the Blue Devil scoring average, and North Carolina to 12 below. That defense sets the tone here, and the Tigers lack the polish offensively to hang in for the full 40 minutes. With the marketplace now only asking for the home team to win the game, we have tremendous line value.

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Sam Martin

Raptors

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Larry Ness

East. Conf GOM

Cavs

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Matt Fargo

10* Cavs

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Chip Chirimbes

San Diego State at Utah
Pick: San Diego St +1.5

The Utes may not have dropped off much in football compared too the drop in the basketball program. Utah is 9-8 this season and are just about a point favorite over San Diego State who is 13-5 on the season. The Aztecs play defense as the allow only 38% field goal percentage on defense while they have five players that average better nine and 12 points. They also have a plus eight rebounds per game advantage. Take SAN DIEGO STATE!

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Teddy Covers

20* Big Ticket Pacers
Raptors

Oklahoma
Wichita St.

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Erin Rynning

Playmaker: Toronto +10

Indiana +6.5

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WUNDERDOG

Toronto at Atlanta
5 units on Toronto +110
3 units on Game Total UNDER 6.5 +110
5 units on Toronto +1.5 -250

Chicago at Ottawa
5 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -110

Buffalo at Anaheim
3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -130

San Jose at Los Angeles
5 units on San Jose -120
3 units on San Jose -1.5 +240

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Red Dog Sports

5* Clemson/Ga. Tech Over 142

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Special K

7* Georgia Tech -1.5
5* Northwestern +12.5
5* Bama +3

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ATS Lock

4 Units Ga Tech (-1.5)
3 Units Wich ST (-3)

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Kelso

50 units Missou St -9

5 units Tennessee -2.5

3 units Illinois +4.5

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Eric Degarde

2* Miami Under 205.5

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Indiana +5.5

For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the visitors in this situation:

Indiana has lost to Miami twice already this year; now healthier the Pacers are actually starting to win some games; the Pacers enter Tuesday searching for their fourth win in five games and will attempt to earn back-to-back road victories for the first time since Nov. 4-17.

The presence of leading scorer Danny Granger, who missed the previous trip to Miami with a torn right plantar fascia, could help in the opener of a three-game trip. Granger has averaged 25.0 points in his last two meetings with the Heat and scored 22 in a 96-83 home loss Oct. 30th; Indiana is 3-3 since Granger returned after going 5-11 while he was out.

The Pacers have been playing better ball lately, no doubt; 4-1 ATS their last five overall. They also have precedence on their side as they are 7-3 ATS their last ten on the road against the Heat.

On the other side of the court: Miami finished 3-3 on a season-high road-trek but it ended with a 98-80 loss to Oklahoma City on Saturday night; I expect another "letdown" this evening.

Kevin Durant scored 36 points on the most efficient shooting night of his career and also pulled down 10 rebounds as the Thunder beat the road-weary Heat 98-80 on Saturday night.

Also working against the Heat in this situation is the fact that Miami is just 5-11 ATS its last 16 in front of the home town crowd.

Bottom line: The Heat finished their longest road trip of the season, but are hardly done with a brutal stretch on their schedule. They get only this one-game reprieve in Florida before heading back on the road during a period when they play 19 of 24 games on the road; this will also be a distraction for this team tonight.

Behind improved play, and playing with the "double revenge" factor, look for INDIANA to improve to 2-2 ATS as a road dog of 3 1/2 to 6 points and for Miami to fall to 2-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points!

7* PACERS

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Ron Raymond

Los Angeles

Great spot here for the Kings, they get a Sharks team who just spanked the Flames 9-1 and they’ve won 7 of their last 10 games. NO pressure on the Sharks. Quick is 3-0 lifetime vs. the Sharks and the Kings are hitting 60% this season as a home dog. It seems to be a doggy dog night! Take the Kings.

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Tony George

Texas A&M -7.5

Oklahoma off an upset win against Mizzou at home Saturday, but in the process lost their #1 shooting guard to a leg injury and he is very doubtful tonight. Texas AM playing with triple revenge and they have the better team at home. Homecourt is HUGE in the Big 12, just ask Texas from last night, whom I was all over K State in that one. OU will have issues keeping pace here. Texas AM fired up after a near OT miss against rival Texas on Saturday. OU's last 3 road games were bad losses at Baylor, Gonzaga and UTEP on a nuetral site. Texas AM is just 1-2 in Big 12 play right now and this is a MUST WIN! Play 1 Unit on Texas AM

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Marc Lawrence

Alabama +2

The Tide hosts the Vols in a key SEC showdown at Coleman Coliseum in Alabama tonight with revenge on their minds from being knocked out of the SEC tourney by Tennessee last year. There is no refuting the fact that Alabama owns good numbers in this series, going 18-8 SU and ATS of late, including 6-0 SU and ATS when playing off a double-digit loss. With the Tide 28-2 SU and 15-8 ATS at home off a previous home loss, and the Volunteers in off a revenge win over Ole Miss, look for Bama to improve to 7-1-1 ATS as SEC home dogs off back-to-back defeats here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Alabama.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, January 19,2010

Lenny Del Genio

Indiana +5.5

This is a bad spot for the Heat, who return home following a six-game road swing, their longest of the season. NBA teams playing their first home game following a road trip of five or more games is always a trouble spot. Portland was in this spot on 11.18 on did not cover vs. Detroit, winning by just six as 10.5-point chalk. On January 5th, Philadelphia lost outright to Washington as five-point favorites. Golden State has split in this spot on two occasions, once getting clobbered by San Antonio. So has Memphis, who lost outright to Portland early in the year. Our point is that's it's not always a play on situation, but in most cases, it's worth a look. Making this an attractive play is the fact that Danny Granger is now back for the Pacers, which makes them a far more dangerous team. After going just 5-11 SU with Granger out of the lineup, the team is 3-3 since his return and even better he's averaged 25 PPG the last two times he's faced Miami. Granger missed the earlier meeting when the Heat when Indiana was blown out 114-80. Note that the Pacers are 72-37 ATS when playing with revenge for a loss where the team scored 85 points or less. Indiana's high-scoring ways can give a team playing with fatigue issues plenty of trouble. They had scored 100+ in five straight games, twice topping the 120 mark, prior to a loss to New Orleans on Saturday. Indiana is our NBA Oddsmaker Mismatch.

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