Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Monday, January 18,2010

Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Monday, January 18,2010

MR EAST

NCAAB MONDAY PLAY OF THE DAY

SYRACUSE @ NOTRE DAME
3 UNITS: NOTRE DANE  +4

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been lethal on their homecourt where they have posted a 61-4 straight up mark in their last 65, and already this year they are 12-1. They knocked off a potent West Virginia team, and getting points on their homecourt is chock full of value. The Irish have really benefitted from the play of Tim Abromaitis who went from nothing to 15ppg. The Cuse is tough, and Wesley Johnson has emerged as one of the top players in the Big East, and is a handful. This one is all about holding serve on the homecourt, something the Irish have made a habit to, and have won straight up in 2 of the 3 during the streak when posted as a home dog. I'll go with Notre Dame in this one.

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Chris Jordan

600♦ Philadelphia 76ers

200♦ Syracuse

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BRANDON LANG

25 DIME - LOS ANGELES LAKERS - One thing about the Lakers, they love statement games.

And tonight facing the team they met in last years NBA finals, this is as good statement game as you can ask for.

You throw in a team lacking confidence and playing their 8th road game out of 11 in the new year and this could get ugly.

Let me start with the Lakers, who since their two sluggish home wins on the 29th over Golden State and new years day over Sacramento, this team at home has been lethal.

A 35 point win over the Mavs, followed by a 9 point win over the Rockets, then an 18 point win over the Buck,s ending with a 40 point win over the Clippers last game out.

All systems go with the Lakers tonight as they will send the struggling Magic on their way to yet another road loss.

Orlando starts off the new year with a nice win on the road over Minnesota. They follow that up with back to back road losses to the Bulls and the Pacers.

After 3 days off to regroup, they fall at home to the Raptors and with 2 days to rally his team and get them to refocus, they lose at the gun toting Wizards by 7.

Ok, finally they show up at home to beat the Hawks and then start their road trip with a nice win over the Kings but again, they can't handle success.

They roll into Denver, and get drilled by 18 and here is where my problem with this Magic team starts.

With 2 days to get his team turned around, to get their attention, to sit them down and put his foot down and say the inconsistent play stops here and we need to start playing like we care, what do the Magic do?

They go into Portland and face the Blazers without leading scorer Brandon Roy and get torched 102-87 in a game they were never in.

Where most coaches are able to get their teams attention with 2 or 3 days after a loss, I feel deep down Stan Van Gundy's act with this Magic team is wearing thin, just as his act wore thin with the Miami Heat.

For a reference, see Shaq's take on Van Gundy as a coach.

I dare say it, but I really believe good old Stan has lost his team and the nail in the coffin might be tonight.

You have 3 days after a road loss to the Bulls to rally your team and you lose by 7 to the 14-26 Pacers.

You have 2 days after a home loss to the Raptors to rally your team and lose to the 13-26 Wizards by 7.

You have 2 days after your road loss to the Nuggets to rally your team and lose to the Roy-less Blazers by 15.

Now you have 3 days at the Ritz Carlton in Marina Del Rey and the Hollywood scene to rally your team for the red hot Lakers
tonight.

This may sound crazy but maybe in a warped way the Magic are trying to get Van Gundy fired with their poor play because with as much talent as they have, is there any other explanation?

I mean, it's either that or they really do miss Hedo Turkoglu and I'm sorry but I just can't buy into that.

Either way, the struggling Magic are going down and down big to LA tonight.


FREE SELECTION - KANSAS STATE WILDCATS

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Don Wallace Sports

Lakers -6.5 over Orlando

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JB Sports

2* Mavs +5

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CAL SPORTS

4* Rockets Over

3* Suns Over

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Teddy Covers

Spurs
Phi/Mn under
Niagra

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Sportsbetsnow

1 Unit Sacramento +6.5

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DAVID MALINSKY

4* Portland +1
4* Charlotte Under 197
4* St Joseph -8

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UNDERDOG

Orlando Magic

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Teddy June

10* Kansas St.

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Erin Rynning

Playmaker: Oklahoma City +6

Atlanta Under 194.5

Golden State Under 219.5

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Pitbull

20 units Grizzlies ML -135
20 units Houston -6.5
15 units Minnesota Under 206
10 units Charlotte -6.5
10 units Lakers -6

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Monday, January 18,2010

Fantasy Sports Gametime

1000* Play Kansas State (-2) over Texas (BIG XII GOY)

Kansas State has covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 games and they have also covered the spread in 5 consecutive home games this season. Kansas State has covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 games coming off a game where both teams scored 80 points or more and they are averaging over 85 points a game at home this season. Texas has lost 11 of the last 12 games against the spread coming off a conference win and they have also lost 14 of the last 19 games against the spread when playing in the month of January.

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Rocketman

Sacramento is 15-24 overall this year while Charlotte comes in with a 19-19 overall record this season. The Bobcats have won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 8 games overall while Sacramento has lost 3 in a row and 8 of their last 9 games overall. Bobcats have really started clicking now since Stephen Jackson has had some playing time with his new teammates and the team adjusted accordingly. Sacramento is 18-35 ATS since 1996 and 6-18 ATS last 3 years against Southeast Division opponents. Charlotte is 8-1 ATS this year after a non-conference game. Charlotte is 25-11 ATS last 3 years after a win by 10 points or more. Charlotte is 13-4 ATS this year against poor defensive teams allowing 99 points per game or more. Sacramento is 3-15 SU on the road this year while Charlotte is 16-4 SU at home this season. Charlotte has the stingiest defense in the league allowing only 90.4 points per game overall this year at home. Charlotte is 4-0 ATS at home vs Sacramento since 1996. We'll play Charlotte for 5 units today!

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DAVE MALINSKY

4* PORTLAND over WASHINGTON

There is not an NBA team more ill-suited to play well on today’s matinee board than the Wizards. Not only is there the continued disarray for a 13-26 team having to deal with the loss of owner Abe Pollin, the Gilbert Arenas issues, and the fact that there is a Wednesday deadline for a proposed sale of the franchise, but they are now forced to play for the fifth time in seven days, a span which also includes a double-overtime affair at Chicago on Friday night. Not only does it mean physical fatigue, but to try to alleviate some of that they did not practice on Sunday. That means a lack of preparation that is even more important when facing a Western Conference opponent, one that they have not played since a 100-87 loss in Portland on January 24th of LY.The physical issues start at the very top, that Antawn Jamison/Caron Butler tandem that has to carry the load. In the first four games of this cycle Jamison has had to play an exhausting 186 minutes, while for Butler it has been 176. This early tipoff will bring tired legs from both (from Jamison, after Saturday’s win over Sacramento - "Oh man, I'm going to be in a coma. It's tough, but you've got to push through it."), and when they are not on top of their individual games Flip Saunders has no other viable options.Portland has shown a remarkable resiliency this season, a tribute to the kind of team chemistry and work ethic that Washington lacks. Despite playing through so many injuries the Trail Blazers enter this game on a 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS run, and in that span they won and covered the two games without Brandon Roy by a combined 36.5 ATS. Roy was only able to go for about 30 minutes in practice on Sunday and may not be a major factor here but the line adjustment more than allows for us to play in this range. They have executed with poise and precision all season on the road, with seven victories over teams that are at .500 or better and a tough O.T. loss at Atlanta. Having been off since Friday, and playing for just the third time in eight days, they bring the energy to gradually pull away in this one.


4* CHARLOTTE/SACRAMENTO Under

If the season ended today Charlotte would be a playoff team, and the Bobcats are in fact only one game out from being as high as a #5 seed. It has almost all been about defense, with a solid #3 in the NBA on our best set of ratings, and correspondingly Larry Brown has them playing at the kind of pace (#27) that makes that defense a focal point most games. Against a weak opponent that they can control, it is the defense and pace that come front and center, and that is what we have today.The Kings are not good enough to take the Bobcats out of their preferred game flow, and since Kevin Martin returned it has been a flat-out disaster offensively on this road trip, managing just 86 points each at Philadelphia (#23 defensively) and Washington (#21). Not surprisingly, those games played Under the Total by a combined 42 points. Because Martin was injured so early in the season (he had not played since November 4th), there never was time for him to develop a rhythm with Tyreke Evans and the other new faces, and when they opened the campaign with three straight road games they only managed 89, 92 and 94. Now it is like starting all over again, and with a Sunday practice being skipped to try to create fresh legs for this early start, there is no reason to believe that anything special is on the way here – if they could not find their way against two of the weakest defenses in the league, they can have some truly ugly stretches against one of the best.Look for Charlotte to focus even more on a slow pace here, forcing Sacramento to make those struggling half-court sets go, and for this to turn into an ugly and plodding grinder of a game


4* SAINT JOSEPH’S over TOWSON STATE

Even in a down season for the program we can count on a Phil Martelli team going hard in every game, particularly in front of the home fans. That makes this a prime spot for the Hawks to get on back on track as they step way down in class against a team that they can dominate, especially since that opponent may be bringing precious little enthusiasm to the table.Towson State is a rudderless ship, with the Tigers on their way to the 6th straight losing season under Pat Kennedy (at 4-12 they will clinch that soon). But for as little as they bring most nights this one could get very ugly – they are playing their 7th game in 17 days, having to travel after a rare conference road win at Delaware on Saturday, and they are right back in C.A.A. play at home vs. Northeastern on Wednesday night. This is the usual rag tag assortment that we have grown accustomed to seeing under Kennedy, with Calvin Lee the only Towson player to start every game, and this is exactly the kind of group that can mail in a non-conference game after getting a rare league road win.The class difference between the programs showed when Saint Joseph’s rolled by 21 on the road LY, and while the W/L records are close this time around note how deceptive that is because of the major gap in scheduling (#10 vs. #233 Sagarin and #13 vs. #226 Pomeroy). This is the kind of matchup that the SR back-court of Darrin Govens and Garrett Williamson can control (they combined for 30 points, 12 rebounds and 13 assists in LY’s win), and with those two shooting a combined 77.0 percent at the free throw line, the ball will be in the right hands to extend the margin in the latter stages.

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THE BOOOOJ

15 Units Notre Dame (+3) over Syracuse

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MARC LAWRENCE

Phoenix +2 vs Memphis

The Suns meet the Grizzles in Memphis with revenge on their minds from a 128-103 home loss suffered 16 days ago in Phoenix. It sets the table for today's play as the Suns enter off three losses in a row knowing they are 41-18 SU and 37-17-2 ATS in this role, including 10-0-1 ATS as a dog versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win. In addition, Phoenix is 46-13 SU in this series, including 4-0-1 ATS when taking points. They are also 4-0 ATS on this floor in games off a loss when Memphis is off a win. Toss in the Suns' Sterling 27-11 ATS mark on the road in games off a loss of 20 or more points and we'll gladly grab the points with the better team here today. We recommend a 3-unit play on Phoenix.


Kansas St. +1 vs Texas

After escaping in a 72-67 overtime home win against Texas A&M Saturday, the 17-0 No. 1-ranked Longhorns won’t find the going any easier in Manhattan today. That's because Bramlage Coliseum has become a house of horrors for visiting teams. It's where KSU is currently riding a 14-game home winning streak (10-0 SU and 5-0 ATS this season) and has compiled a 68-12 SU mark since 2005. K-State also owes Texas for a bitter 3-point loss in the opening round of last year’s Big 12 Tournament – a setback that forced the Cats to settle for an NIT bid. In addition, the Cats have cashed in six of their last seven tries when playing with conference tourney revenge. The hosts also own an impressive 7-1-1 ATS series edge, including last year’s outright win at Austin as 10-point underdogs. With Big 12 home teams on an incredible 117-7 SU run this season, and Kansas State an eye-opening 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS at home as a dog or favorite of less than 10 points against undefeated opposition since 1990, look for another No.1 to bite the dust here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Kansas State.

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Pitbull

20 units Grizzlies ML -135
20 units Houston -6.5
15 units Minnesota Under 206
10 units Charlotte -6.5
10 units Lakers -6

20 units K-St ML -125
10 units K-St -1.5

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BEN BURNS

10* Spurs/Hornets Under

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