Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Chuck O'Brien

20 DIME: LAKERS

BREAKDOWN: Not worried about the fact the Lakers have struggled without injured All-Star forward Pau Gasol, splitting six games without him (1-5 ATS). Also not worried that the Clippers shocked the Lakers two weeks ago (102-91 as a five-point underdog) or that the Clips have cashed in four straight meetings with their stadium partners. That’s because Gasol is expected back tonight – and, more importantly, L.A. still has the best player in the game in Kobe Bryant (who seems OK after suffering that back injury at San Antonio earlier in the week), while the Clippers likely won’t have the one player who has given the Lakers so much trouble this year (center Chris Kaman, doubtful with a back injury; Kaman has combined for 39 points and 30 boards in two games against the Lakers this year) … The Clippers have followed up a four-game winning streak (all at home) with consecutive road losses to Memphis and New Orleans, the latter a 108-94 defeat on the day it was announced that former No. 1 pick Blake Griffin – and the Clippers’ key to the playoffs – is out for the year. (Don’t think that won’t have a lingering emotional impact.) … The Lakers have been a shaky bet all year, but they have cashed in three straight home games with dominating efforts (131-96 vs. Dallas; 88-79 vs. Houston; 95-77 vs. Milwaukee). Also, the Lakers get two full days off before their next game on Monday, while the Clippers have to face LeBron and the Cavs tomorrow night.


15 DIME: THUNDER

BREAKDOWNThere’s no such thing as a sure thing betting the NBA, which might be the most difficult sport to handicap. But the closest thing to a sure thing is to go against the Mavericks at home. Dallas is a miserable 5-14 ATS on its home court this year, failing to cover in 13 of its last 14 games in Big D. And even if you take the spread out of the equation, the Mavs have lost four of seven home games outright! … Oklahoma City has cashed in 12 of its 18 road games this year, going 5-1 ATS in the last six. The Thunder are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road ‘dog and 4-0 ATS in their last four as a ‘dog of 5 to 10½ points. … Going back to the end of the 2007-08 season (the Thunder’s last as the SuperSonics), Dallas is in a 1-5 ATS slump in this rivalry. And the Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four trips to Dallas … In addition to their struggles covering pointspreads at home, the Mavs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight as a favorite and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 in this price range (5 to 10 ½ points). Dallas also has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 against Western Conference teams.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Jay McNeil

25 Dime - WARRIORS

Golden State is on ATS runs of 8-2 overall and 4-1 at home, while Milwaukee is 0-3 SU in the midst of a season-high six-game road trip and on ATS slides of 3-7 overall, 1-5 as an underdog and 1-4 as a road 'dog. The Bucks are just 4-14 on the road this season, rookie guard Brandon Jennings is averaging just 10.5 points while shooting 26.9 percent in his last six games and sharpshooting guard Michael Redd is done for the season after tearing ligaments in his left knee Sunday night against the Lakers.


10 Dime - ROCKETS

Houston has won five of its last six games against Miami, going 5-1 ATS, including three straight wins, and the Rockets are 5-1 ATS in the teams' last six meetings in Houston. The Rockets have won eight straight games at home, and they have great balance on offense and tough defenders such as Shane Battier and Trevor Ariza to make Heat superstar Dwyane Wade, who is playing with a sprained wrist, have to work hard to get his points.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Joel Tyson

400♦ - Houston Rockets

The road is starting to get a little long for Miami, playing their 5th of 6 in a row on the road this evening at the Toyota Center.

Miami is 2-2 both straight up, and against the spread on this trek, but this will be game 5 in the last 7 days, and they are taking on a Houston team that is mighty quick and will make them pay before this one is done.

Houston comes in with just 2 straight up wins in their last 6 games, but they are 11-5 against the spread at home this year, and they have won the last 3, and 5 of the last 6 both straight up, and against the spread in this east-west series.

Going to lay the points with the host tonight against the tired visitor.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Pete Angelo

500♦ NBA BLOWOUT - Indiana Pacers

The Nets are an absolute joke this season, and will be made a mockery of tonight at home. Heads up to everyone, I am going to be keeping an eye on the Nets every single night thru the All-Star Break, as there is constant value in going against them. The Nets have lost their two meetings with Indiana by 12.0 per game this season, as the Pacers have played solid defense in holding Jersey to 36.3 percent shooting in each victory. Easy winner here guys, Pacers roll.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Dave Malinsky

4* ATLANTA over PHOENIX

Instead of the month of January being a Good News/Bad News scenario for Phoenix it breaks down differently – it is Bad News/Worse News. The Bad is that an old team looks awfully tired already, starting calendar 2010 on a 2-4 SU and ATS run in which they have lost to the pointspread by 53.5 points, with the defense (allowing 113.2 per game) and rebounding (-37 boards) completely breaking down. The Worse is that those six games came against teams that are a collective 18 games under .500, and that four of them came at home. This is not the setting for any of that to turn around.Phoenix brings a short price tonight because of that 24-15 overall record, but it is not just the last two weeks that things have broken down – the Suns are 10-12 after a 14-3 start, an early burst of energy that they do not have the depth to maintain. For the full season they are 25th in the NBA on our best defensive tables and in rebounding, and the personnel simply is note there to turn those categories around. So things will continue to deteriorate, especially in this matchup.While Phoenix brings the #25 defense to the table, the Hawks are #2 offensively, and #1 in fewest turnovers. Against an opponent that does not bring ball pressure the Hawks can execute their designs throughout, and the schedule setting lays out well for them to have the energy to take full advantage – they have only had a comfortable win over Washington in the last three days, and do not play again until a home game vs. Oklahoma City on Monday. Meanwhile the Suns are in the opener of a back-to-back setting on the road, something that have not faced in over six weeks, and it means that Alvin Gentry may not have his team chasing all that hard from behind if this one gets out of reach. We think it will

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Executive

250 Sacramento

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Erin Rynning

Playmaker: Oklahoma City +5

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

SPORTS UNLIMITED

5* WASHINGTON / CHICAGO OVER

4* CHARLOTTE

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

St. Peter's +6.5

For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on St. Peter's in this situation:

Nick Leon scored a career-high 29 points and Wesley Jenkins added 27 in Saint Peter’s 90-86 double overtime win over Niagara on Monday night.

Leading 82-81 with 2:02 left in the second overtime period, the Peacocks (8-8, 3-3 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference) scored five straight to pull away. Leon capped the spurt on a three-point play for an 87-81 lead with 41 seconds remaining.

Darius Conley had 13 points, and Ryan Bacon tallied 12 points and career-highs with 16 rebounds and seven assists for the Peacocks.

I expect the Peacocks to continue to build momentum and play with confidence after their last dominating performance.

On the other side of the court: Ryan Thompson scored 21 points to lead Rider to an 84-62 victory over Marist on Monday night.

The Broncs shot 54.2 % from the field (32-for-59), and scored 17 points off of Marist’s 14 turnovers; however I expect a "letdown" tonight as the Broncos will also have some matchup issues in some key positions.

It's interesting to point out as well that Rider is already a poor 1-3 ATS in front of the hometown crowd this season.

Bottom line: The Peacocks have history on their side; 8-2 ATS its last ten when playing on the road vs. the Broncos; look for ST. PETER'S to improve to 5-2 ATS when playing the roll of underdog, and 5-2 ATS vs. conference opponents and for Rider to fall to 0-4 ATS this season after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest!

9* ST. PETER'S

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Bob Balfe

Toronto +2.5

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Ron Raymond

Clippers / Lakers Over 199

When ANY NBA Team Played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Division Opponent - After a non division game - Coming off a 1 game win - Coming off 3 unders; the OVER is 10-5-0 for the Home Fave (LAL) in this role.

When LA CLIPPERS played as any home/road team - During Last 2 Years - Lost Last Game by 14 Points or Less; the OVER is 29-14-1 for the Clippers in this spot the L2Y.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Tony George

Golden State -4.5

Take the Warriors at home against a bad road team in the Bucks tonight. (4 wins on the road all year!) This is the fourth straight road game for the Bucks and they have lost all 3 previous. This angle comes out of my road weary scenario, off 3 straight road losses, I like going against a team on their 4th road game, especially on a west coast swing.Golden ST. dropped their last 2 games at home against Cleveland and Miami but competed till the end in both, Milwaukee will be a welcome sight tonight. High scoring game here, but the Warriors prevail.Play 1 Unit on Golden State.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Marc Lawrence

Phoenix +4.5

The Suns don’t show up as a dog too often in this series but when they do, we’re there. Phoenix has not only won the game outright eight of the twelve times they were taking points, they’ve also brought home the money to a 9-2-1 ATS log, including 3-0 SU and ATS the last three. The Hawks have also been a no-show in this series off a SU win, posting a 1-8-1 ATS mark. Hawks’ 2-5 ATS log at home on Fridays seals it. We recommend a 3-unit play on Phoenix.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Mike Lineback

Indiana -3

Have to play against New Jersey with only three wins on season (13-25 ATS). Team looks uninspired, don't play defense & have a hard time finding quality shots on offense. Believe, Indiana a bit undervalued after struggling with injuries most of season. Team now healthy, with Granger, Murphy & Dunleavy back, and recent maturation of big-man Hibbert has been huge. Indiana are deeper 1-10 in rotation and are coming off quality wins vs. Phoenix & Toronto & beat Orlando 10 days' ago. Take the Pacers.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Rocketman

Oklahoma City +5

Oklahoma City is really having a solid year for them going 21-17 so far this season. Dallas is 0-6 ATS this year as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points. Dallas is 5-14 ATS this year when playing at home. Oklahoma City has won 8 of their last 11 games overall. Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Thunder are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Mavericks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Mavericks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Mavericks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Thunder are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll play Oklahoma City for 3 units tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

Ben Burns

10* NJ
8* Charlotte
9* Chicago/Wash OVER
8* Okla City/Dallas UNDER

9* Loyola Maryland

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Friday, January 15,2010

KBHoops

3* St. Peters +6.5

3* Atlanta Hawks -5

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